[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/10/2003 4:46:21 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 102133
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMISSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
420 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

WILL HAVE TO BE SHORT WITH WELL ADVERTISED SUPERCELL SVR WX EVENT
UNFOLDING. NEW UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH NICHOLS BLEP
TECHNIQUE WITH LATEST PARAMETERS AND TIMING ALREADY HAS BEEN ISSUED
AND CONTAINS "MEAT" OF THE SITUATION. BASICALLY EVENT IS DEVELOPING
MUCH AS ANTICIPATED UNFORTUNATELY...AND MAYBE FURTHER NORTH WITH
TORNADIC POTENTIAL. THIS DUE TO BOMBING SFC LOW NEAR KMCI...AND MSAS
INDICATED PRESSURE FALLS BUILDING UP THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL IA.
YESTERDAYS FURTHER WEST NGM(WORST CASE) SFC LOW PATH SCENARIO MAY BE
THE CORRECT ONE...WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SITUATION WRAPPING THE SYSTEM
FURTHER TO THE WEST. SFC LOW MAY ACTUALLY SKIRT THE FAR WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE DVN CWA...RATHER THAN UP THE RIVER AS EARLIER
EXPECTED.

SUPERCELLS EXPLODING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MO ATTM...RACING EAST-
NORTHEAST AT OVER 60 MPH. ALL TORNADIC PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER FOR
HECTIC EVENING FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ONE GOOD POINT IS THAT THE EVENT
MAY RACE THROUGH THE AREA AND BE DONE BY 11 PM-MIDNIGHT.

AGREE WITH DMX THAT INCOMING GRADIENT FOLLOWING RAPIDLY DEEPENING
SFC LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FOR WINDS WORTHY
OF ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. PLUS
ISALLOBARIC SURGE RIDING PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET RIGHT BEHIND
EXITING SYSTEM MAY INDUCE GUSTS TO 45 MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT OR A LITTLE
AFTER ACRS THE NORTHWEST. BUT...WITH SO MUCH GOING ON THIS EVENING
BEFORE THEN WITH OTHER HEADLINES....WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY TO
SAVE SOME CONFUSION.

COOL...WINDY MOMMA'S DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA IN STRONG WRAP AROUND.
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACRS THE NORTH HALF AND TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE 50S.

LONGER RANGE(TUE-SAT)...QUICK LOOK AT EXTENDED SUGGESTS A SIDE WITH
LATEST UKMET AND ECMWF RUNS...WHICH GENERALLY KEEPS BOUT OF UPPER AND
LOWER RIDGING ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR DRY BUT COOL NORTHEAST-EAST
SFC FETCH SCENARIO IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UKMET AND EURO NOW DELAY
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FOR A LATE WEEK OVERRUNNING RAIN THREAT...
MAINLY ACRS THE SOUTH. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH MEX TEMPS...OR BIT
COOLER THROUGH PERIOD.


COORDINATED WITH DMX...THANX!

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

12