[LeArc] HWODVN@ 5/10/2003 2:04:44 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 101901
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-111000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
155 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

...MAJOR OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...

...THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI WHERE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR KANSAS CITY AT NOON TODAY WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE EVENING...ROUGHLY ALONG OR
NEAR A LINE FROM LAMONI TO WATERLOO TO NEAR PRAIRIE DU CHIEN. THE
AIRMASS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK IS BECOMING VERY
UNSTABLE...AND SUPPORTIVE OF EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS...VERY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND POTENTIALLY
TORNADOES.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WILLIAMSBURG IOWA...TO
DUBUQUE IOWA.

THE STRONGEST TORNADOES APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF LINE
FROM KEOSAUQUA TO THE QUAD CITIES TO STERLING ROCK FALLS.  ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS...CALLED SUPERCELLS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI NORTH INTO IOWA AND WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTH AND CHANGE
IN DIRECTION OF THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL WINDS...COUPLED WITH VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NEAR THE GROUND WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES TO DEVELOP.

IT APPEARS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF THE
STORMS IN FAR SOUTH SECTIONS...SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.  IN THESE AREAS THIS
WILL CAUSE AND ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES...WITH POSSIBLY ONE OR
TWO STRONG TORNADOES OF F3 ON THE FUJITA SCALE...OR WINDS IN EXCESS OF
150 MPH. THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
WHERE A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO THE STORMS...ABOVE WHAT
IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED...WOULD PRODUCE A VIOLENT TORNADO OF F4 ON THE
FUJITA SCALE...OR WINDS UP TO 220 MPH. THE STRONGEST TORNADOES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO STAY ON THE GROUND FOR 20 TO 50 MILES OR MORE.

LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE KEOSAUQUA TO QUAD CITIES TO STERLING ROCK
FALLS...WILL ALSO BE AT RISK FOR TORNADOES...MAINLY LESS THAN F2
INTENSITY...OR WINDS UP TO 125 MPH.   LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 4 PM AND
CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 11 PM BEFORE DIMINISHING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RESIDENTS IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO REVIEW TORNADO SAFETY
RULES AND HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION IN PLACE BEFORE A WARNING IS ISSUED.
TORNADO SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS TIPS ARE LOCATED ON THE QUAD CITIES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT  W W W DOT C R H DOT N O A A DOT
G O V  SLASH D V N. FROM THE MAIN PAGE...SELECT PREPAREDNESS
BENEATH THE WEATHER SAFETY HEADER ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF NEAR 40 MPH
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

NICHOLS