[LeArc] HWODVN@ 5/10/2003 6:42:40 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 101134
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
632 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

...SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...

...THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI WHERE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH
NORTHERN MISSOURI...WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. LATEST
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
LATE EVENING...ROUGHLY ALONG OR NEAR A LINE FROM KIRKSVILLE
MISSOURI...TO BURLINGTON IOWA..TO ROCKFORD ILLINOIS. THE
AIRMASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...AND
SUPPORTIVE OF EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...VERY
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND POTENTIALLY TORNADOES.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KEOSAUQUA IOWA...TO BURLINGTON
IOWA...TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. IT IS LIKELY THAT ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS...CALLED SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON IN
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTH AND CHANGE IN
DIRECTION OF THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL WINDS...COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR NEAR THE GROUND WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE
FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP.

IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF THE STORMS
AS IS EXPECTED...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES...
WITH POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES OF F3 ON THE FUJITA
SCALE...OR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 150 MPH. THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM
ALSO WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
WINDS INTO THE STORMS...ABOVE WHAT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED...WOULD
PRODUCE A VIOLENT TORNADO OF F4 ON THE FUJITA SCALE...OR WINDS UP TO
220 MPH.

LOCATIONS NORTH OF THIS TORNADO THREAT AREA WILL BE AT RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA IS BOUNDED TO THE NORTH BY A LINE
FROM WASHINGTON IOWA...TO CLINTON IOWA...TO FREEPORT ILLINOIS.

THE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY AROUND 3 PM AND
CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 11 PM BEFORE DIMINISHING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RESIDENTS IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO REVIEW TORNADO SAFETY
RULES AND HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION IN PLACE BEFORE A WARNING IS ISSUED.
TORNADO SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS TIPS ARE LOCATED ON THE QUAD CITIES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT  W W W DOT C R H DOT N O A A DOT
G O V  SLASH D V N. FROM THE MAIN PAGE...SELECT PREPAREDNESS
BENEATH THE WEATHER SAFETY HEADER ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF NEAR 40 MPH
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

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