[LeArc] HWODVN@ 5/9/2003 6:34:27 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 091131
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-101130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
627 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

...A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION IS SETTING UP FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH WARM...BREEZY
AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE
WILL STALL OUT IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE TODAY...WHICH COULD TRIGGER ONE
OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH TO IGNITE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE STERLING...
ROCK FALLS...TO THE QUAD CITIES TO WASHINGTON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...HOWEVER DAMAGING
WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING
OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT
LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY. CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY EVENING...ROUGHLY ALONG
OR NEAR A LINE FROM LAMONI IOWA...TO NEAR THE QUAD CITIES...TO
FREEPORT ILLINOIS. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE...AND SUPPORTIVE OF EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL UP TO
BASEBALL SIZE...VERY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH AND A FEW
TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA GREATEST AT RISK
FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD
TO THE QUAD CITIES TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES...WITH POSSIBLY
ONE OR TWO MODERATE TO STRONG TORNADOES OF F3 TO F4 ON THE
FUJITA SCALE. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INITIALLY INTO SUPERCELLS
WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS ACTIVITY THEN COULD EVOLVE
INTO AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH MID SATURDAY EVENING.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION...WITH THE
THREAT FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE
MODERATE...TO STRONG IN INTENSITY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS THE SAME
ONE RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE SEVERE WEATHER IN RECENT DAYS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

RESIDENTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER
SITUATION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM STERLING ROCK FALLS...TO THE QUAD
CITIES...TO WASHINGTON. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$