[LeArc] HWODVN@ 5/7/2003 3:51:29 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 072049
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-081100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

...ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL THREATEN
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD
FOR BOTH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE
CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE
FLOODING ON AREA STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES BY THIS WEEKEND.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP STORMS AWAY TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY MAKE THERE WAY
UP INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAIN WARM FRONT
HOLDING BACK ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...THE BEST CHANCE FOE SOME
THURSDAY AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATEST INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG...WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH
TOWARD NORTHERN MISSOURI...A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF IT OVER THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS IN
THIS COMPLEX MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AGAIN
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR WILL BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVIER RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL VALUES IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAY APPROACH AN INCH AND A HALF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO PROGRESS
NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
THE AREA AT RISK.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
STORMS THAT OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSE A THREAT OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT THERE MAYBE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THESE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RIPPLE
UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...POSING MORE OF A DIRECT SHOT ON THE LOCAL
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS SYSTEM CAN PULL UP FAR ENOUGH TO
THE NORTH AND WEST THAT SOME OF THE AREA CAN GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE STORM...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.  THEN...SPOTTERS OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY DURING THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER.  AS MORE INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE...LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS WILL BE ABLE TO
REFINE THE TIMING...LOCATION AND TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT MAY
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

UPCOMING SPOTTER TRAINING CLASSES:

May 8, 2003:  Training - What Cheer, IA - 7 pm

Severe weather and tornado spotter training will be conducted in
What Cheer, Iowa (Keokuk County) at the fire department at 7 pm.
This will be a free 2 hour class.  For additional information,
contact Terry Burger at 641-634-2361.


MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

JDH