[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/6/2003 4:44:15 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 062130
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
425 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

.OVERVIEW...SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTING LOTS OF WEATHER.  NEXT SHORT WAVE IN
KANSAS PRODUCING AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE WAVE
NOW IN SW MISSOURI.  ANALYSIS SUPPORTS RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH AREA LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PASSES SOUTH.
STRONG AND DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO PACIFIC COAST SUPPORTING
LOTS OF ENERGY TO ARRIVE BY LATE THURSDAY.  LOW 70 DEWPOINTS INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA GIVING LOTS OF FUEL TO STORMS IN MISSOURI ALONG 850
MB FRONT.

...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NEAR TERM
ISSUE AND THEN STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN INTO SUNDAY LONGER ISSUE...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...ETA AND MESO-ETA QPF SUFFERING ALL TOO
COMMON FEEDBACK ISSUES TONIGHT OF UP TO 2 INCHES NOT REASONABLE.
NEVERTHELESS...VORT AND LATEST NOWCAST TOOLS SUPPORT A MORE TEPID GFS
AND UKMET SOLUTIONS OF MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER GENERALLY AMOUNTS LESS THAN HALF INCH.  UPPER VORT MAX TRACK
SUPPORTS CLOUDS AND SOME MORNING RAIN WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY ON COOL
SIDE WITH NE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THUS BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
THURSDAY GETS FUN...LARGE SCALE INTENSE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG
SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND TRIGGER
SUPPORT LOTS OF RAIN AND STORMS WITH SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINS...SOME
FLOODING POTENTIAL. THEN FRIDAY WARM FRONT PASSES FOR FIRST WARM AND
HUMID DAY WITH DEWPOINTS PUSHING 70.  FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
SUPERCELLS LATE WITH CAPES OF 2500+ J/KG LI'S LESS THAN -8 AND BRN 25
TO 50...NOT TO MENTION LOTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR...OH BOY!  NEED TO
WATCH THIS.  HIGHS TO REACH WELL INTO 80S...RISK OF TORNADOES BETTER
DEFINED NEXT 24 HOURS.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO RECEIVE PERIODIC RAINS TOTALING WELL IN EXCESS
OF 1-2 INCHES BY SUNDAY PM WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES OR MORE.  THIS
AMOUNT OF WATER ON TOP OF ALREADY MOIST SOILS...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER.  UPDATED HWO AND ALSO ISSUED ESF FOR
HEAVY RAIN RISKS.

.EXTENDED (SAT-TUE)...ALL INDICATIONS OF VERY STRONG SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH TO PASS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ROUNDS OF STORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER AN ALMOST GIVEN. THEN MAJOR
COOL DOWN TO TEMPS AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES BELOW MEX/FMR AS MODELS
HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH CAA BEHIND SYSTEM WHICH LATEST UKMET AND GFS-
AVN SUGGEST WITH 850 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
MONDAY FOR VERY COOL TEMPS INTO MIDWEEK AS LARGE SURFACE CANADIAN
MOVES IN.

APOLOGIZE FOR LATE AFD DUE TO WORKLOAD ISSUES TODAY.

DVN...
IA...NONE
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

NICHOLS