[LeArc] HWODVN@ 5/3/2003 4:53:02 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 032139
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-040900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
436 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKING LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ELEVATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
LARGE HAIL FROM PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE STORMY...WITH AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKING LIKELY. LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL
SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY EVENING...ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL FROM PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE.
HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE I 80
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...THUS THE TORNADO THREAT IS LIKELY TO SHIFT A BIT
FURTHER NORTH TO NEAR A LINE FROM CEDAR RAPIDS...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
QUAD CITIES.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST...NORTHEAST
INTO MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE WE CAN
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY...WITH PERHAPS SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A CEDAR RAPIDS TO QUAD CITIES
LINE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND THE INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA ENOUGH THAT A BRISK SOUTHEAST WIND WILL GUST
TO OVER 30 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
SUCH THAT REPEATED DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IS
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THUS THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
TO NEAR HIGHWAY 34 DURING THE EVENING...AND TO NEAR THE I 80
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...CONTAINING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.
DURING THE EVENING...THE AREAS GREATEST AT RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WILL
BE PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD...TO MACOMB...
WITH THE GREATEST RISK WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS WILL THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...TO NEAR A CEDAR RAPIDS...TO QUAD CITIES LINE.
FURTHER NORTH OF I 80 THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL REMAIN WITH LARGE HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE MOISTENED SOILS CONSIDERABLY...THEREFORE
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF...QUICKLY
FILLING SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. MANY CREEKS AND STREAMS IN
LOUISA...MERCER...HENRY...BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES ARE RUNNING AT
OR JUST BELOW BANKFULL...THEREFORE THESE COUNTIES ARE MOST AT RISK
FOR SEEING FLOODING PROBLEMS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL LARGE ENOUGH
TO BE CONSIDERED SEVERE.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.

&&

UPCOMING SPOTTER TRAINING CLASSES:

May 6, 2003:  Training - Chadwick, IL -  7 pm

Severe weather and tornado spotter training will be conducted in
Chadwick, Illinois (Carroll County) at the fire department at 7 pm.
This will be a free 2 hour class.  For additional information,
contact county ESDA coordinator Greg Miller.

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

05