[LeArc] HWODVN@ 5/3/2003 5:40:30 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 031036
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-041000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
530 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A LARGE AND STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A ROUND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS UP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AND THE INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
ENOUGH THAT A BRISK SOUTHEAST WIND WILL GUST TO OVER 30 MPH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SOUTHEAST WIND WILL TAP BACK INTO DRIER AIR AND MAY
DELAY MUCH OF THE RAIN AND STORMS TO ARRIVING MORE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WRAPPED UP WARM FRONT PUSHING TO JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING...SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER STORMS
WITH A HEAVIER RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A SIGOURNEY IOWA...TO MONMOUTH ILLINOIS LINE. BUT PROJECTED
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT WIND DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AS FAR NORTH AS IOWA CITY...THE QUAD CITIES...
AND PRINCETON ILLINOIS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL LARGE ENOUGH
TO BE CONSIDERED SEVERE.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THEIR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING
STORM SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR.

&&

UPCOMING SPOTTER TRAINING CLASSES:

May 6, 2003:  Training - Chadwick, IL -  7 pm

Severe weather and tornado spotter training will be conducted in
Chadwick, Illinois (Carroll County) at the fire department at 7 pm.
This will be a free 2 hour class.  For additional information,
contact county ESDA coordinator Greg Miller.

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

JDH