[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/2/2003 4:54:55 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 022139
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
439 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

NEW GRID REQUIREMENTS FOR NDFD HAVE INCREASED WORKLOAD CONSIDERABLY.
BRIEFLY...ALL MODELS AGREE IN SURFACE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH CWFA
TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS ADVECTING IN DRYER AIR WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. AS A RESULT HAVE RAISED HEADLINES FOR
FROST OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF CWFA. CLOUDS FROM INVERTED
TROF SHOULD PROTECT THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR NORTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OFF DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BRINGING A NICE
DAY TO THE AREA. ETA MODEL LOOKS TOO FAST IN BRINGING NEXT SYSTEM
IN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND PREFER THE SLOWER AVN/UKMET SOLUTIONS.
SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME AN INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE SO ONLY THE
FAR SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE ANY PRECIP BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF THERE TO ROUND OFF THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF CWFA.

SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTERESTING. ALL MODELS INDICATE INITIAL SURFACE
LOW TO OCCLUDE IN NORTHWEST IOWA WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND KMKC AND MOVING TOWARD THE HEART OF THE CWFA. DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL ONE BELIEVES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. HOWEVER
SIGNALS NOT OVERLY CLEAR YET AND WILL WAIT A FEW MORE RUNS TO SEE
HOW EVERYTHING EVOLVES...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE TREND HAS BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH EACH MODEL RUN.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE
SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT
MODELS DIGRESS ON SOLUTIONS WITH AVN BEING ODD MAN OUT BRINGING A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IN MID WEEK. FOR NOW KEPT MOST OF EXTENDED AS IS
WITH MINOR CHANGES.

DVN...FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT.
IA...IAZ041-042-053-054-066.
IL...ILZ001-002-007-009-017-018.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF