[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 3/28/2003 4:34:45 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 282228
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
430 PM CST FRI MAR 28 2003

STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING STRONGLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS 
AFTERNOON...QUICKLY DRAWING PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE AREA.  ONLY 
PRECIP OBSERVED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE FAR NORTHERN 
AND FAR EASTERN SECTIONS.  WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN 
SUSTAINING FROM 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTING TO AROUND 30.  
THESE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP OFF DURING THE EVENING...AS 
THE GRADIENT RELAXES.  

12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL...AND ARE 
VERIFYING REASONABLY WELL AS OF 18Z.  DO THINK THAT THE ETA IS 
TRYING TO EJECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TOO QUICKLY OUT OF THE 
MID-WEST...AND WILL GO MORE WITH THE AVN SOLUTION WHICH IS IN VERY 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS.  

EXTENDED...TUE-FRI
FAIRLY QUIET WX FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH A GRADUAL 
WARMING TREND...AND HAVE GONE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED 
STATIONARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO LAY ACROSS NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN WI 
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  FRIDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE INCREASED DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT...AND BRING PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  
CURRENTLY THE GFS IS BRINGING THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE CWA LATE ON 
FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING CHANCES TO THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL HAVE TO 
WATCH THIS SYSTEM...AS SUSPECT THAT THE TIMING OF IT WILL BE 
PROBLEMATIC.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

LRE