[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 3/24/03 3:17:57 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 242111
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CST MON MAR 24 2003

SHORT TERM...
BAND OF RNFL OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF A STNRY FRNT FROM NEBRASKA TO 
ILLINOIS.  EXPECT NEW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS 
ACRS NRN MO AND SRN IA AS RGT ENTRANCE RGN OF THE JET MOVS INTO THE 
MID-MISSISSIPPI VLY. LITTLE MSTR TO WORK WITH TNGT AND REALLY THE 
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY WEAK...SO LOOK FOR 
QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.  

SYSTEM MOVG RAPIDLY OUT OF THE PICTURE ON TUESDAY.  DECENT AMOUNT OF 
CAA AND LOWERING THICKNESSES...HOWEVER WITH WITH A LOT OF SUNSHINE 
AND GOOD MIXING TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND RATHER NICELY.  NOTICED A WEAK 
MID-LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NERN PORTION OF THE CWA TUESDAY 
NIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MID-LVL CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS LIMITED 
IN MSTR.   

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON THEN SLIDES EAST TO NEAR MO RIVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
GFS/UKMET.  LIGHT WIND WITH DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE WEDNESDAY 
MORNING SHOULD HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S AND WILL USE 
BLEND OF COOLER MAV/FWC NUMBERS.  LOOKS LIKE WARM FRONT WILL BE 
SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH SO REGION SHOULD SEE SOME SUN WEDNESDAY.  
THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR WARMER 
MET NUMBERS.  APPROACHING SURFACE LOW WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW 
OVER NIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS TO 
HELP KEEP TEMPS UP AND WILL GO AT LEAST A CATEGORY OVER THE MAV 
NUMBERS.  BY THURSDAY GFS HAS LOW CENTER NEAR OMA WITH STRONG 
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM. MODELS NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT PCPN 
THURSDAY OVER CWA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LIMITED AND GFS ONLY 
PRINTING OUT LIGHT AMOUNTS.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS STILL ON TRACK WITH 
SIGNIFICANT EARLY SPRING STORM OVER CENTRAL U.S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS HAS SHIFTED SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH FROM YESTERDAYS RUN AND IS 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.  UKMET STILL SHOWING A MORE 
SOUTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD PUT CWA IN BETTER LOCATION FOR MORE SNOW 
SATURDAY.  WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT HAS HAD GOOD 
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND GO WITH RAIN FOR FRIDAY THEN SNOW SATURDAY 
AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND CWA NEAR THE DEF ZONE.  GFS SUGGESTING 
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ALONG CANADIAN BORDER LATE SUNDAY INTO 
MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE MONDAY WITH FRONT MOVING 
THROUGH.  WILL NOT DEPART TOO MUCH FORM MEX NUMBERS SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY...BUT IF MODELS ARE ON TRACK THEN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE 
BUMPED UP WITH STRONG RETURN FLOW DEPICTED WITH SYSTEM.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

 BELLES/FERRY