[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 3/22/03 2:14:53 AM

Sat, 22 Mar 2003 02:14:53 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 220824
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
220 AM CST SAT MAR 22 2003

.OVERVIEW...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW MOVING EAST ALLOWING FOR
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE TO SLIDE EAST WITH DISTANCE TIME FEATURE
SUGGESTING CLEARING ALL AREAS ~ 15Z.  MODERATE UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN
WITH QUIET WEATHER NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.  NEXT
DISTURBANCE ON PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUPPORTS ARRIVAL ~48-60 HOURS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM SUPPORTS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS DURING DAY
TODAY WITH SURFACE HEATING.

...WARMUP NEXT FEW DAYS NEAR TERM ISSUE AND THEN POPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...WILL TREND IN MIDDLE OF MODEL BLEND MAX
TEMPS TODAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SURFACE HEATING ALLOWS FOR
LOTS OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.  GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING STILL
INDICATED TONIGHT WITH HEAVY FROST AND MIN TEMPS ON LOW SIDE OF
BLEND. TEMPS WARMING UP ON SUNDAY WITH SW WINDS WHICH LATEST BLEND
NOW 3+ DEGREES WARMER OR CLOSER TO CURRENT FORECAST.  KEEP TEMPS ON
HIGH SIDE THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BUT NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY OR FORCING FOR STORMS INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL FORCING AND MOISTURE LIMITS POPS AS MENTIONED EARLIER TO
JUST CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...INDICATIONS OF WAVE SUGGESTED BY
GFS-AVN WHICH IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ETAX/UKMET/ECMWF.  WILL TREND
TOWARD LIKELY POPS SE 2/3 WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  GFS-AVN
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET SNOW FAR NW SECTIONS...AND WILL
INCORPORATE IN ZONES ACCORDINGLY BUT RAIN MORE FAVORABLE AS LOW
LEVELS MILD.  THEN...FRIDAY LOOKING VERY INTERESTING AS BOTH GFS-AVN
AND UKMET BOTH SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT EARLY SPRING SYSTEM WITH CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW. TRACK AND JET ORIENTATION IS IDEAL FOR THIS TYPE SYSTEM.
APPEARS WERE SEEING A CHANGE IN LONG WAVE PATTERN TO MORE ACTIVE
AND WETTER FOR US...BUT SHOULD TAKE ANOTHER 24 PLUS HOURS TO VERIFY
THIS.  WILL MENTION BOTH TUESDAY AND FRIDAY SYSTEMS IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH VIGOROUS EARLY SPRING PATTERN BUT WORDED
APPROPRIATELY VAGUE AND UNCERTAINTIES.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

NICHOLS