[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 3/21/03 1:17:22 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 210725
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
120 AM CST FRI MAR 21 2003

.OVERVIEW...REGION UNDER UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH CLOSED SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM DAKOTAS.
SATELLITE SHOWS OPEN CUMULUS UNDER VORT MAX NEAR KABR MOVING SSE AT
25 KTS.  SFC DEWPOINTS OF 31 TO 35F UPSTREAM SUPPORTS LOTS OF COLD
AIR SC AND CUMULUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH LIGHT TO BRIEFLY
MODERATE SHOWERS OF RAIN...OR RAIN AND SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY
30 PER SOUNDINGS WITH WBZ LTE 1,500' AGL NE AREAS TODAY.  UPSTREAM
SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN 1/2 TO ALLOW FOR WARMER AND MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER AFTER SHORT WAVE PASSES.

...CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES TODAY MAIN FORECAST ISSUE...

DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANDLED REASONABLY WELL
BY GFS-AVN AND ETA WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES AT 06Z.  THIS SUPPORTS MID DAY
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW NNE 1/3 AREA TODAY.
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN .05" TIL LATE PM DUE TO
LIMITED FORCING.  LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGESTS NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH TODAY. WRAPAROUND CLOUDS TO
SLIDE EAST MID TO LATE FRIDAY.  THEN...MAINLY FAIR WITH QUITE WEATHER
AND WARMER AS ZONAL FLOW BRINGS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO STAY CLOSE TO BLEND TODAY OR LOWER A CATEGORY
DUE TO CAA AND LOTS OF CLOUDS...ALSO THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN LOW SIDE
SATURDAY AM WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...THEN
ABOVE AS SW WINDS KICK IN.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...NEXT SYSTEM OF ELONGATED UPPER
TROUGH WITH PROGRESSIVE ORIENTATION AND POSITIVE TILT SUGGESTING
LIGHTER POPS ON LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TO ABOVE MEX/FMR SUN/MON ON DECENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
SYSTEM.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

NICHOLS