[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 3/14/03 1:52:29 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 142000
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
200 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003

.OVERVIEW...THIS MORNING/S DEEP INVERSION RESPONSIBLE FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FINALLY DISSIPATING AS OF 19Z.  UPPER RIDGING NOW
IN PLACE WITH SFC HIGH SLIDING SLOWLY EAST.  UPPER ANALYSIS SUPPORTS
LITTLE FORCING NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO LIMIT WELCOME EARLY SPRING WARMUP.
SOME QUESTION ON RATE OF WARMUP DEPENDING ON STRENGTH DIRECTION OF
SFC FLOW.  ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT FROM AREA PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORTS
SOUTH WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP.  STRENGTH OF
GRADIENT SUPPORT LIGHT RADIATION FOG VERSUS HEAVIER FOG EXPERIENCED
EARLIER TODAY.

...WARMUP NEXT FEW DAYS NEAR TERM ISSUE WITH RAINS AND CHANCE OF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THE LONGER TERM QUESTIONS...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...QUIET REGIME HANDLED WELL BY MODELS EXCEPT
FOR TRAPPED MOISTURE FROM DEEP INVERSION LAST NIGHT BUT THIS SHOULD
SLIDE EAST.  PERSISTENCE UPSTREAM SUGGEST KEEPING PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES...WILL TREND JUST BELOW ETA ON TEMPS BASED ON
18Z VERIFICATION. SUNDAY WILL INCLUDE CHANGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY WITH WEAK COLD FRONT.  MONDAY...CHALLENGE
WILL GO WITH UKMET/ETAX SUGGESTING BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY AND
COOLER WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OF RAIN...OR RAIN/STORMS FAR SOUTH.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL GO WITH RAIN LIKELY WITH CHANCE
OF STORMS SOUTHERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF CWFA.  REASONABLE MOST AREAS TO
RECEIVE AN INCH OR MORE...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. UPDATED HWO FOR RAIN AND ALSO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
LATE SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED...KEEPING WITH MORE CONSISTENT UKMET SOLUTION WITH MINOR
INPUTS FROM GFS-AVN.  THIS SUGGESTS RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE
EMBEDDED STORMS SOUTH...THEN CHANCE POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION IN NW SECTIONS IN WRAPAROUND FROM CLOSED SYSTEM
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  FARMERS
SHOULD LOVE THIS EVENT TO REPLENISH SUB SOIL MOISTURE.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

NICHOLS