[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 3/14/03 4:23:20 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 141031
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
425 AM CST FRI MAR 14 2003

WELL ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE IMPLANTS ITSELF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY DEFLECT AND DAMPEN APPROACHING
PACIFIC WAVE ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS FAIR
AND WARMING WX IN STORE FOR THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DO SUGGEST ENOUGH ENERGY TO PUSH OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND BUCKLE UPPER RIDGE SOME LATER SAT NIGHT...BUT WILL
KEEP CWA DRY FOR NOW WITH JUST SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS. BETTER PRECIP
SHOT JUST TO THE NORTH OVER MN AND WI CLOSER TO INDUCED SFC WAVE AND
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT NORTHERN CWA MAY STILL BE AT RISK FOR
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.

BEFORE THEN...MAIN FCST QUESTION WILL BE EXTENT OF WARMING.
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GRT LKS WILL ALLOW SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT SFC TO ENGULF THE AREA. 20-30 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT H85 PROGGED TO WARM TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL TO +11 TO +12 C BY
00Z SAT...AND LOOKS REASONABLE WITH TAP INTO UPSTREAM THERMAL POOL.
FULL MIXING POTENTIAL NOT TO BE REALIZED THOUGH...BUT CONSERVATIVELY
BULK OF THE CWA TO STILL REACH MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH DBQ AND
NORTHWEST IL TO BE THE COOL SPOT AT AROUND 50-LOWER 50S. WOULDN'T
RULE OUT SOME LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 60 ACRS THE FAR WESTERN CWA
WHERE BRISKER WINDS AND MIXING TAKE PLACE. LLVL CRITICAL THICKNESS
OVER THE CWA BY 00Z SAT...MATCH THOSE OF NORTHEAST KS/WEST MO FROM
YESTERDAY WHICH HIT MID TO UPPER 50S...ANOTHER FACTOR SUPPORTING
THE WARMER MAV HIGHS FOR TODAY.

AS FOR SAT...ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ROBUST WARM UP IN STORE
AS BRUNT OF THERMAL POOL AND STRONGER MIXING MACHINE PUSH ACRS THE
CWA FROM THE WEST. FEEL MAV AND FWC HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...
UNDERDOING THIS WARMING POTENTIAL...WITH MET/ETA HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S MORE ON TARGET WITH EXPECTED MID MARCH INSOLATION.
HAVE TRENDED SAT HIGHS UP QUITE A BIT FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT
STILL JUST UNDER MET GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND LATE DAY SHIFT FINE TUNE
WELCOME WARM UP.

BUMPED UP TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND TONED MONDAY POP CHANCES DOWN...
OTHERWISE NO CHANGE TO LONGER RANGE FOR NOW. EXTENDED GFS SUGGESTS
NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW ROLLING OUT OF THE PLAINS MAY MAKE FOR
AN INTERESTING TUESDAY.

COORDINATED WITH KLOT...THANX!


.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

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