[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 3/13/03 3:16:52 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 132125
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
325 PM CST THU MAR 13 2003

WX SITUATION STARTS OUT QUIET BUT THEN TURN ACTIVE NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE RIDGE TO MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. THIS
COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT TODAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR A TAD WORSE. AFTER THAT RETURN
FLOW TAKES OVER WITH QUIET BUT WARMER WX EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. GROUND IS DAMP/WET FROM SNOW MELT SO THAT IS A FACTOR IN
DETERMINING MAX TEMPERATURES NEXT FEW DAYS. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER
FWC BUT THEN WENT WITH WITH MAV/FWC COMPROMISE.

EXTENDED GETS VERY INTERESTING. STRONG WAA IN THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW SOMETHING TO POP WITH SHORTWAVE/FRONT IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER DON/T BELIEVE THAT WILL GET HERE AS BETTER
FORCING/THETA E RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF CWFA. STARTING SUNDAY FIRST
OF SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY TO EJECT FROM LONGWAVE TROF OUT WEST.
FIRST PIECE TO BRING A THREAT OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
SMALL PIECE ON MONDAY. MAIN EVENT (PER UKMET) COMES OUT MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE AREA ITS FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAIN SINCE DECEMBER. STRONG
LLJ MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED TSRA TO DEVELOP...
MAINLY EAST OF A KEOKUK TO STERLING LINE.

SYSTEM OCCLUDES OFF WITH TRIPLE POINT/DEEP MOISTURE GOING UP THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY KEEPING AREA IN THE COLD
CONVEYER BELT. AS SYSTEM DEEPENS EASTERLY FLOW OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO
ENHANCE GRADIENT PROVIDING A RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS.
PRECIP SHOULD END WED NIGHT/VERY EARLY THURS FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
SKIES. GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST ANOTHER SYSTEM TO ARRIVE THE
WEEKEND AFTER THE SPRING EQUINOX.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF