[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 3/12/03 4:18:18 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 122217
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
417 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

INTERESTING WX OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...GOTTA LOVE MARCH. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING DRIZZLE/FOG AND SOME
RAIN. WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG BECOMING ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT WIDESPREAD 1/2 MILE LIKELY TO BE SEEN. FOG DUE TO
LIFT FROM SHORTWAVE AND INCREASED RH IN BOUNDARY LAYER FROM MELTING
SNOW. FOG/DRIZZLE TO LIFT THURSDAY MORNING BUT CLOUDS TO REMAIN.
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND MELTING SNOW TO KEEP RH HIGH IN
BOUNDARY LAYER. THURSDAY NIGHT DIRTY RIDGE TO MOVE OVER CWFA WITH
FOG REDEVELOPING.

ON FRIDAY AFTER FOG/CLOUDS LIFT THE WARM UP BEGINS. GIVEN COLD DAMP
GROUND COOLER MAV NUMBERS LOOK BETTER. ADDITIONALLY TIMING OF BREAK
OUT FROM CLOUDS ALSO CRITICAL. GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE A REAL WINNER WITH WARM TEMPS AND SUNSHINE.

REMAINDER OF EXTENDED GETS REAL FUN. ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A
STACKED SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS AS THE LONGWAVE TROF RETROGRADES INTO
ITS FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION (WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
AMERICA). THIS SYSTEM TO EJECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TOWARD THE AREA...
BUT THE MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS WELL SOUTH...THUS KEEPING THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE THERE AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY THE CLOSEST ANY
TRIPLE POINT FROM THE SYSTEMS WOULD BE STL AS EACH SYSTEM OCCLUDES.
THUS WE WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD CONVEYER BELT WITH JUST A GOOD
SPRING RAIN EXPECTED...BUT NO CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES A CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAJOR BUSTS.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF