[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 3/11/03 9:10:38 PM

Tue, 11 Mar 2003 21:10:38 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 120319
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
920 PM CST TUE MAR 11 2003

WILL BE MAKING SEVERAL CHANGES TO FORECAST. WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHEAST IA 
WITH FRONTAL ZONE SNAKING INTO CENTRAL NE TO SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. 
PRESSURE RISES NOT THAT GREAT POST FRONTAL. THIS...COUPLED WITH ZONAL
UPPER FLOW AND SEVERAL WAVES ALONG FRONTAL ZONE SUGGEST BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE THROUGH REGION. SLOWER PROGRESSION WILL IMPACT TEMPS.
CURRENTLY TEMPS STILL IN THE L-M30S IN SOUTHERN MN...SO WILL BUMP UP MINS
BY 1-2 CATS MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN SOUTH. NEXT CONCERN IS PCPN POTENTIAL.
REGION CAUGHT IN BETWEEN. RAIN AND SOME THUNDER TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MO WILL
SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT AS LLJ VEERS. PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND H85 FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED ONLY TO
GET INTO FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY 12Z. FORCING WEAK...LLVLS STILL SOMEWHAT
DRY PER 00Z DVN SOUNDING AND JET SUPPORT WELL NORTH. BASED ON THIS WILL REMOVE
SLIGHT CHC POPS...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT FEW SPRINKLES WITH MID LEVEL
RETURNS. 

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL PUSH JUST SOUTH OF CWA WITH LLVL FLOW
BECOMING NORTHEAST. THIS CONDUCIVE FOR LOTS OF CLOUDS AND NOT
MUCH WARMING ESPECIALLY WITH WHAT LITTLE SNOW COVER IS LEFT. ALSO WOULDN/T
BE SURPRISED TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG. WITH THAT...BELIEVE MAXES 
ON WEDNESDAY ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC AND 00Z GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP...THUS WILL
NUDGE DOWN AND ADJUST WIND DIRECTION/SPEED. PCPN CHANCES STILL 
LOOK REASONABLE BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS 
SOUTH INTO CWA. 

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

M^2