[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 3/7/03 9:47:25 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 080355
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
950 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2003


UPDATE WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.  MAIN CHANGE WILL BE TO DOWNPLAY FOG 
WORDING FOR TONIGHT AND TO TWEAK LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH. STILL 
LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT FZRA/IP EVENT FOR NORTERN COUNTIES IS STILL ON 
TRACK.  UA ANALYSIS AT 00Z SUPPORTS THE 18Z GFS SOLUTION TRACKING 
SURFACE LOW ALONG IA/MO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  
OMEGAS BLOSSOM OVER ERN IA AROUND 09Z BUT H8 ANALYSIS SHOWING LITTLE 
AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS TO FEED INTO SYSTEM THUS KEEPING 
PCPN AMOUNTS TO A MINIMUM.  H8 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND ZERO AS FAR N AS 
DBQ. SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S 
AS PCPN BEGINS...SO FRZRA LOOKS REASONABLE.  THE FOG THREAT LOOKS 
MINIMAL AT THE MOMENT WITH CS COVERING MOST OF CWA.  WINDS SHOULD 
ALSO BE INCREASING OUT OF THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SO DON'T ANTICIPATE VSBYS MUCH BELOW 2SM 
IF THAT.  WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE NE SECTION OF THE 
CWA....SINCE THAT AREA WILL BE ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF CS UNTIL AFTER 
MIDNIGHT AND WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT LONGER...PROVIDING BETTER RADIATIONAL 
COOLING.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$
DLF