[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 3/7/03 3:46:56 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 070955
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
355 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2003

COLD FRONT AT 08Z EXTENDED FROM MN ARROWHEAD TO SOUTHWEST IA. MOST 
PRECIP WAS WELL TO NORTH WHERE MID LEVEL FORCING GREATEST...HOWEVER 
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL OMEGA AHEAD OF FRONT WAS RESULTING IN FLURRIES 
OVER DMX CWFA. HAVE ADDED FLURRIES TO MORNING PERIOD...THEN MAIN 
CHALLENGE IN IS TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT TO OUR EAST BY TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING 
OVER AREA EARLY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT WILL IMPACT 
THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT IN SOUTHEAST 
ZONES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SUNSHINE UNTIL AFTER 
FROPA. ANOTHER FACTOR WILL BE PLENTY OF SNOW COVER SEEN ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY COVERING ALL BUT SOUTHERN HANCOCK AND 
MCDONOUGH COUNTIES. THUS WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST...WITH LOWER 
40S...WITH GRADIENT LOWER 30S IN DBQ...CLOSE TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN
FWC AND MAV GUIDANCE. WITH LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY THIS EVENING WITH 
PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SNOWMELT WILL 
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG AND KEPT MENTION FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. EXPECT 
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE EVENING TO LIMIT EXTENT OF
RADIATIONAL FOG. 

MORE POTENT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY...WITH MODELS INDICATING
FASTER PASSAGE THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ETA AND GFS POINT TOWARD 
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS RIVER. WILL BE EVEN STEEPER
GRADIENT OF MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MUCH OF 
SOUTHEAST TO BE SNOW FREE WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH LOWER 50S...WHILE 
ENOUGH SNOW AND EARLIER FROPA WILL LIMIT NORTHERN IA TIER ZONES TO 
LOWER 30S....JUST ABOVE MAV. WILL AGAIN BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF 
SIGNIFICANT FORCING WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES LEFT IN NORTHERN 3RD.
WITH STRONG STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...COLDER MAV NUMBERS FAVORED 
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. 

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GFS STILL POINTS TOWARD TIGHT NW TO SE 
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES 
MONDAY AND LEFT GRIDS ESSENTIALLY INTACT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE ON 
WEDNESDAY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$
DLS