[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 3/5/03 1:36:37 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 051946
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
145 PM CST WED MAR 5 2003

.OVERVIEW...AREA UNDER WEAK ARCTIC AIR PRESSURE WITH SOME CLOUDS MOVING
IN AHEAD OF A WEAK ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IN CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
IS PRODUCING SOME FLURRIES IN NE/KS.  UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS TROUGH
IN ROCKIES BUT LITTLE COHERENT VORT MAX...ADD JET NOW SOUTH AGAIN
LIMITING ANY FORCING AS IT PASSES.  NEXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE IN BC IS
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH.   SATELLITE SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ALLOW FOR
SLOW WARMUP NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER TROUGH/SUFARCE HIGH SLIDES EAST.

...FLURRIES TONIGHT AND THEN IMPACTS OF SNOW NEXT FEW DAYS MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...WEAK SYSTEM IN PLAINS HANDLED ADEQUATELY
WITH SLIGHT NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT IN LINE WITH BEST PVA.  THIS SUPPORTS
CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH FLURRIES DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE AND FORCING.  THEN CLEARING BY MID DAY WITH SUNSHINE BY PM.
TEMPS WILL FOLLOW NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW DUE TO SNOW COVER TONIGHT (MOST
AREAS RECEIVED 5-8 INCHES EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST THAT GOT 2-4 INCHES) AND
THEN TREND 1-2 CATEGORIES BELOW THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CHANCE OF FLURRIES
NORTH HALF. WEAK REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ON SATURDAY SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND FLURRIES BUT OTHERWISE...QUIET PATTERN FOR A FEW
DAYS.

.EXTENDED (SUN-WED)...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH NEXT
SYSTEM TUESDAY WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SUGGESTED AND POOR CONFIDENCE
OF PHASING.  MODELS DO VARY QUITE A BIT ON TUESDAY SOLUTION SUPPORTING
THIS POOR CONFIDENCE.  FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE CHANCE SNOW...OR SNOW/RAIN
SOUTH BUT COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THIS...SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP
NEXT 2 DAYS.   EXPECT SNOW COVER TO BE ALL OR MOSTLY GONE BY SUNDAY SO
WILL ADJUST TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

NICHOLS