[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 3/2/03 3:58:37 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 022205
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
404 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2003

BUSY PERIOD COMING UP WITH SEVERAL SYSTEM TO DEAL WITH. RIDGE MOVES
QUICKLY ACROSS CWFA TONIGHT WITH WAA DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FIRST SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
ON MONDAY. LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IMPRESSIVE. EVEN WITH 2
G/KG BEING ADVECTED IN SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL REMAIN AROUND AN
INCH UP NORTH WITH A DUSTING TO I80. REASON BEING IS THAT
ATMOSPHERE NEEDS TO FINISH SATURATING WHICH SHOULD TAKE 1 TO 1.5
G/KG OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. DIRTY RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

MODELS ARE GETTING A BETTER IDEA WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM AND WILL
LIKELY HAVE A MUCH BETTER IDEA WITH NEW 00Z RUNS. EITHER WAY LIFT
AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS AWESOME. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
BELIEVE MOISTURE ADVECTION RANGES FROM 1-2 G/KG UP TO 2-5 G/KG.
EITHER WAY ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY. META PAINTS TWO AREAS OF
STRONGER LIFT/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN THIRDS OF THE CWFA WITH NOT MUCH IN BETWEEN. HOW MANY
TIMES HAVE WE SEEN THIS BE FORECAST/OCCUR THIS WINTER? HAVE ELECTED
NOT TO GO WITH ANY HEADLINES ATTM...BUT BELIEVE TUESDAY EVENT WILL
MERIT AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. BEST GUESS ATTM IS 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCH BANDS. WILL PASS ON THESE CONCERNS TO OTHER
SHIFTS.

IN EXTENDED...NEXT RIDGE MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COLD TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED IS QUIET WITH GRADUAL WARM
UP AS NEW SNOW FIELD MELTS.  POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS WITH A SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY. GLOBAL MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS WELL BUT CONSENSUS OF
OTHER OFFICES IS THAT SMALL CHANCE POPS APPEAR WARRANTED.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF