[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/30/2003 3:49:45 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 300847
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
347 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN 
ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED 
WITH AN 850MB FRONT...AS ANALYZED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR CHARTS.  
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THAT THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY 
SHIFTING SOUTH...AND HAS BEEN WEAKENING.  

TODAY THE 850MB FRONT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH...SO PRECIP 
THAT HAS BEEN BRUSHING THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA SHOULD 
BE DONE WITH PRECIP BEFORE MID MORNING.  CIRRUS FROM CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY OVER THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP 
OVER THE AREA AS IT DID YESTERDAY...AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPS 
GENERALLY BELOW GUIDANCE...WHICH WOULD HAVE WORKED WELL YESTERDAY 
TOO.  FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE A LOT LESS CIRRUS...SO WENT 
WARMER THERE.  TONIGHT ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF CIRRUS SHOULD BE 
LINGERING OVER THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE STILL IN PLACE...AND TEMPS TO 
DROP OFF REASONABLY WELL OVERNIGHT.    ...LE

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TILT TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DECAYING TO OUR 
SOUTHEAST...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION 
BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH 
THIS PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  IN 
ALL...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE DOMINATED BY RATHER 
PLEASANT EARLY JULY WEATHER. 

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CONSISTENTLY A FRONT DROPPING INTO THE 
AREA THURSDAY AS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN 
CANADA FLATTENS THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT 
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ALONG AND NORTH OF 
45N LATITUDE. FINE DETAILS OF FRONTAL POSITION AND RESULTANT 
EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE 
TO PIN DOWN UNTIL CLOSER IN. THERE WILL A DAILY THREAT OF DECAYING 
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE MORNINGS...WITH EVENING STORMS 
POSSIBLE AS WELL...THEREFORE WITH RE-INTRODUCE POPS FOR THE 
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL MESH WELL WITH SURROUNDING GRIDS. UNTIL THINGS 
GET CLOSER IN...WILL KEEP POPS LOW (30S) IN THESE PERIODS...ALTHOUGH 
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION... 
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THESE REMAINS LOW. 

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$