[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/26/2003 4:31:10 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 260923
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
415 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2003

LATEST MSAS LOOP AND SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING FRONT PUSHING EAST OF
THE MS RVR...WHILE LOCAL 88D LOOP SHOWS LINGERING PRECIP BOTH ALONG
BOUNDARY AND POST FRONTAL. WILL HAVE TO WALK OUT BOTH PRECIP AND
POST FRONTAL CLOUD DECK IN THIS MORNING ZONES IN THE EAST. CLOUDS
ACRS THE WEST MAKING ENOUGH CLEARING HEADWAY TO JUST GO WITH SUNNY
WORDING OFF THE BAT. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY BEING AIDED BY A
COUPLE OF VORT COMPLEXES SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY STILL JUST UPSTREAM THAT
WILL LOOK TO SHEAR EAST OVER IA THIS MORNING. THEN ITS DEEP
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR A FAIR WX REGIME IN THE NEAR TERM.

LLVL LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS...SHOULD
BE SOME CU GENERATION. QUESTION IS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO RUIN
MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING. MORNING SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AFTER POST FRONTAL DEBRIS CLEARS...BUT BY AFTERNOON WILL
WORD PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF FOR CU FORMATION. MAY
BE OVERDOING IT THOUGH. PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND EXTENT OF MIXING
POTENTIAL SUGGEST THAT TEMPS MAY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LATE JUNE INSOLATION.

AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN GRT LKS...RESULTING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY USHERS IN A DISTURBANCE
ACRS MN AND WI TOWARD FRI MORNING. WHILE SOME MODELS ACTUALLY
SPAWN A POS OMEGA BULLSEYE AND BREAK OUT LIGHT PRECIP THAT MAY CLIP
THE NORTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...FEEL FEATURE WILL
JUST CREATE SOME MID DECK CLOUDS TO KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING GOING
RATHER THAN TOTAL CLEAR OUT. SOUTHERN CWA SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED
BY THIS VORT AND STILL BE CLEAR. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT WHATS OCCURRING
TEMPERATURE-WISE FOR LOWS THIS MORNING IN RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL BE
UPON THE DVN CWA TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE CWA COULD COOL INTO THE LOWER
50S...CLOSEST TO COOLEST MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

WITH EXTENT OF MIXING AND SOME LLVL THERMAL RECOVERY ON FRI...TEMP
GUIDANCE APPEARS A BIT COOL FOR BUDDING POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AGAIN
THE MET WHICH HAS THE WARMEST HIGHS(LOW TO MID 80S) AND LOOK
REASONABLE.

ALL MODELS IN VARYING DEGREES AND TIMING...DEVELOP AND BRING DOWN
LARGER SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MN AND WI FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT
MORNING. RESULTING LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPICS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT FORM A SWATH OF SUBSTANTIAL POS OMEGAS...WHICH GENERALLY
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATER FRI NIGHT. EXTENT OF SATURATION AT
QUESTION...BUT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTIONS GOING ON TO INTRODUCE LOWER
POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN THIRD.


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

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