[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/25/2003 2:28:03 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 251926
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
225 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE DAMAGING WINDS IS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER 
THREAT.  EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING.  SFC MESO 
ANALYSIS INDICATES PRES FALLS DVLPG IN NRN MO WITH EXPLOSIVE TSTMS 
FORMING IN ERN KS AND NWRN MO.  EVERYBODY IN THE FCST AREA SHOULD 
SEE RAIN TNGT.  WILL JUST GO CATEGORICAL WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HVY 
RAIN THREAT.  LAST FEW HOURS SFC REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE CDFNT IS 
BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE.  MODELS SHOW THIS QUITE WELL FOR TNGT.  
THEREFORE THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING IS MINIMAL ...ESPECIALLY 
WITH TOP SOILS FAIRLY DRY.   

.DAY 2 THRU 7...
WITH NW FLO ALFT NOT SURPRISED TO SEE SHRTWV DROP INTO THE NRN 
PLAINS ON DAY 3.  WK CDFNT PUSHES THRU THE RGN ON SAT WITH A CHC FOR 
TRW AS MSTR POOLS INVOF CDFNT.  QUESTION IS WILL THE FNT GO STNRY 
ACRS OUR SRN FCST AREA ON SUNDAY LEADING TO MORE TRW. FOR NOW WILL 
KEEP FCST DRY AS LATEST GFS HINTING AT FNT SLIDING FAR ENUF INTO 
MO...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT ACRS SRN PORTION.  
ALSO HAVE SO DOUBTS ABOUT PSBL PCPN EARLY MON.  MRF AND GFS SHOWING 
WK SHRTWV MOVG THRU PRODUCING SOME PCPN.  FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT 
BELIEVE THE GFS AND MRF ARE TENDING TOWARD THEIR MOIST BIAS.

WITH GOOD WESTERLY FLO A SHRTWV PASSES THRU ABOUT EVERY 3 DAYS.  
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THRU ON DAY 7 SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHC FOR TRW.  
OVERALL WITH THIS FLO PATTERN TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.  
  
DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

 BELLES