[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/22/2003 4:02:47 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 220900
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD FOR THE AREA. LAST GASP OF CANADIAN HIGH TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. CURRENT MCS IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL NOT
AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS BETTER THETA E AXIS/INSTABILITY
REMAIN JUST WEST OF CWFA. TONIGHT THE FUN BEGINS. MCS SHOULD FIRE
VICINITY OF KOMA AND MOVE EAST ACROSS IOWA DURING THE NIGHT. THIS
IN RESPONSE TO THETA E AXIS/INSTABILITY MOVING EAST AS LLJ REVS UP.
DECAYING MCS TO AFFECT AREA DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY AS
HUMIDITY ARRIVES.

MONDAY NIGHT IS THE SERIOUS FUN. LLJ CRANKS UP TO 50+ KNOTS WITH
THETA E AXIS/INSTABILITY IN PLACE. MODELS GIVE STRONG SIGNALS FOR
ANOTHER BUT STRONGER MCS. EXPECT A SEVERE MCS TO DEVELOP SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT HIGH PLAINS MCS AND AFFECT THE AREA...POSSIBLY AS A
BOW ECHO. MAIN THREAT TO BE WIND AS FREEZING LEVELS TO BE VERY
HIGH. HOWEVER ENOUGH SHEAR PRESENT THAT A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY TO BE HOT AND HUMID WITH FIRST 90S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 105 AS WELL. DIDN/T PLAY WITH
THE EXTENDED AS TOO MUCH TO CONSIDER IN CLOSE.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF