[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/20/2003 3:59:17 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 202054
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
353 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2003

WX TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST WITH COOL AND PLEASANT WX. STRONG WAA ZONE SETS UP ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS SLIGHT EAST IN
THE EVENING WITH THETA E RIDGE IN SAME AREA. THIS IS WHAT HAS BEEN
HAPPENING IN NE/KS DURING THE DAY. TRANSLATED THIS MEANS WE SHOULD
SEE SOME SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EXTENDED GETS INTERESTING. SIGNALS IN THE
MODELS POINT TO MCS DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY WESTERN IA
AND MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEYOND MONDAY...
ECMWF/UKMET HAVE SLOWER MOVEMENT ON FRONT WITH IT NOT REALLY MOVING
THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY. BREAKS IN PRECIP ARE LIKELY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
PLENTY OF NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY IN THE COMING WEEK.

BIGGER MESSAGE IS THE RETURN OF H SQUARED AND POSSIBLY H CUBED EARLY
NEXT WEEK (HOT AND HUMID...HAZY HOT AND HUMID). HAVE OPTED TO GO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AS STRONG FLOW SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF