[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/19/2003 3:27:46 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 192021
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2003

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY IS PROVIDING PLEASANTLY 
COOL AND LESS HUMID JUNE WEATHER.  NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW AT THE 
SURFACE IS ALSO TAPPING SOME LAKE AIR...HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN 
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ALOFT...FAIRLY HIGH 
AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NATION TODAY.  
MAIN UPPER TROF IN THE WEST IS DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA...WITH A STRONG RIDGE AXIS FROM NEW MEXICO TO CENTRAL 
MANITOBA.  THE MAIN EASTERN UPPER TROF IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST 
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. 

WITH HIGH PRESSURE RULING THE ROOST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.  
TONIGHT...GUIDANCE VALUES ARE NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS ALL OF THE 
AREA...AND THIS IS ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE GOING FORECAST.  A QUICK 
GLANCE AT EARLY AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOWS THAT THE AIR IS DEFINITELY 
DRY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR 40S...GIVEN SEVERAL HOURS OF CALM CONDITIONS 
OVERNIGHT.  BOTH THE GFS AND ETA HAVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN 
IOWA INTO WISCONSIN BY 09Z. THEREFORE...WITH HOLD CLOSE TO GOING 
FORECAST LOW TEMP FORECAST AND KEEP NEAR RECORD WORDING IN THE ZONE 
TEXT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A SLOW 
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS.  AFTER THE MOISTURE MOVES IN LATE IN 
THE WEEKEND...THE PLEASANTLY MILD SUMMER WEATHER IS DONE...WITH HOT 
AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY IN THE EXTENDED AND BEYOND. STILL...WE 
EXPECT LIMITED MOISTURE TO HOLD OFF ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL 
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LOW 
LEVEL JET FURTHER WEST AND MAIN DYNAMICS LIKELY WEST TOO...WILL 
REDUCE CHANCE POPS TO SLIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ...ERVIN

SUNDAY THE GOOD MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA...WITH THE AVN 
INDICATING DEWPOINTS ALREADY INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON 
OVER EASTERN IA...AND SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES.  THUS...HAVE 
INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN HALF 
OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE MOST OF THE DYNAMICS STILL 
BEING TO THE WEST AND NORTH.  WENT PRETTY WARM...ABOVE GUIDANCE MOST 
LOCATIONS...IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING 
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.

EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY  
THIS WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  GFS IS PROBABLY TOO STRONG WITH THIS ENTIRE 
SYSTEM...AND HAVE GONE MORE WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS... 
KEEPING THE SURFACE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AND THE SYSTEM A LITTLE 
WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH.  AS WE GET CLOSER INTO THIS PERIOD...COULD 
PROBABLY DROP SOME OF THESE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT AT THIS 
TIME COULD NOT RULE OUT ANY OF THEM...SO KEPT CHANCES FAIRLY LOW 
THROUGHOUT.  WENT REALLY WARM AND STICKY ON THE TEMPERATURES...AND 
KEPT THINGS WARM AS WE WILL BE IN OR CLOSE TO THE WARM SECTOR 
THROUGHOUT.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY WENT SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE 
GUIDANCE...BUT TAPERED BACK TOWARDS GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY...AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT CLOUDS WONT BE A 
FACTOR.  ...LE

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$