[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/17/2003 3:54:40 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 172048
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2003

MODELS PROG WEAK COLD FRONT/FORCING TO MOVE ACROSS CWFA LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LIKE HOW THE NGM IS HANDLING THINGS AS IT USUALLY
DOES QUITE WELL IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENTS. INITIAL PRECIP TO
JUST ENTER CWFA THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OUT...FOLLOWED BY SHRA
AND MAYBE A TSRA WITH 10-20 PERCENT COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. NGM
INCREASES FORCING DURING THE DAY SO COVERAGE TO INCREASE TO
SCATTERED...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA TODAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WX TURNS QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM AND
FIRST PART OF EXTENDED.

IN EXTENDED HIGH TO BRING CHILLY TEMPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE A GOOD CHUNK OF AREA IN THE 40S AS MODELS PROBABLY DON/T HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR. RETURN FLOW TO WARM THINGS UP
QUICKLY WITH TEMPS APPROACHING NEAR 90 FOR MUCH OF CWFA ON SUNDAY.
SHRA/TSRA THREAT TO INCREASE AS WELL AS GULF OPENS UP. MODELS
GIVING SIGNALS FOR POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY EITHER SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY NIGHT. MRF LIKELY OVERDONE FOR EVENT ON TUESDAY. EVEN
CUTTING BACK STRENGTH BY 50 PERCENT STILL POINTS TO ACTIVE WX.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF