[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/16/2003 2:51:27 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 161948
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
247 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS 500MB VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHEAST BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
CONTINUES TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS.

CONVECTION MAY STILL FIRE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA...WITH BETTER CAPES AND PVA.  THE SHORT-
TERM MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY EASTERN HALF...THRU TUESDAY...WITH COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING...
WITH LITTLE CAA BEHIND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY WILL SUPPRESS INVERTED TROF IN LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
KEEPING IT FROM AFFECTING FORECAST AREA...ALTHO MORE CLOUDS SOUTH.
WITH SURFACE RIDGE REASSERTING ITSELF OVER GREAT LAKES...LAKE EFFECT
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT.  BY SATURDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.  A STRONG COLD FRONT...BY SUMMER STANDARDS...WILL MOVE
THRU IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH A SHARP 500MB TROF
MONDAY.

WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST AS IS WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.  MAY
REMOVE PRECIP FROM CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF COLD FRONT.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA