[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/15/2003 2:30:36 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 151928
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
228 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CONFLUENT ZONE WITH HIGHER
CAPES HAS SHIFTED WEST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA.  LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OFF THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING PICTURE PERFECT EARLY SUMMER
AFTERNOON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOUR-FOLD.  FIRST IS THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON ON EDGE OF
CONFLUENT ZONE.  SECOND IS THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AND INTO MONDAY SOUTHEAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT
MAX.  THIRD IS CHANCE OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. FOURTH IS CHANCE OF
PRECIP THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROF TO OUR SOUTH.

THE SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.  MAY KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE ON ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.  MODELS VERY
NEGATIVE ON PRECIP OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...OTHER THAN VORT MAX.  LAKE MICHIGAN
INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE SITS ACROSS
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...KEEPING US IN EASTERLY FLOW.  DIFFUSE COLD
FRONT MOVES THRU FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.  TIMING IS SUCH THAT
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...
BUT WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING.  AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS AND MOVES
ACROSS AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP.  THE NEXT CHANCE
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

WILL KEEP CLOSE TO ONGOING FORECAST...WITH POSSIBLE REMOVAL OF
SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP FOR TONIGHT.  ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT AWFULLY LOW CHANCE.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA