[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/14/2003 5:05:07 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 142156
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
456 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS WEAK SURFACE FLOW STILL COMING
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE CAPES OVER
FORECAST AREA CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.  THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE TWO-FOLD.
FIRST IS AN UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LAKE AFFECT WINDS THRU
AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY EAST...AND COMFORTABLY LOW DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. A
VIGOROUS VORT MAX IS STILL PROGGED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A WEAK 500MB LOW THAT SINKS OVER THE AREA. LACK OF MOISTURE...
AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL LIMIT CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT.  BEST
CHANCE MAY BE IN EVENING NORTH...ALTHOUGH EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO
MONDAY MORNING...DUE TO RELATIVELY SLOW SPEED OF VORT. THE 500MB LOW
WILL BECOME CLOSED AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTH MONDAY TO A POSITION OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL GETTING KICKED EAST
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A SURFACE TROF MOVES THRU. THIS
WILL KEEP THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS HIGHER SOUTHEAST PORTION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP STAYING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

WILL KEEP WITH GENERAL TREND ON FORECAST.  WILL TWEAK POPS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA