[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/14/2003 4:25:31 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 140921
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
410 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

TODAY WILL LOOK TO BE CONDITIONALLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT A
TOUCH WARMER. LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC FLOW TO CONTINUE TO TRY AND ADVECT
BIT DRIER DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOCAL AREA...BUT DRYING TO BE
MINIMAL WITH WEAK FLOW. LATEST MSAS AND SFC ANALYSIS INDICATE
LINGERING POOL OF HIGHER DPTS IN LOWER 60S IN VCNTY OF WEAK SFC
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE LYING TO THE LEE OF UPPER MIDWEST
ANTICYCLONE...FROM SOUTHWEST WI...AND ACRS THE WESTERN 2/3'S OF THE
DVN CWA. HIGHER DPT POOL SHOULD LINGER INTO TODAY ACRS THE AREA...AND
WITH AT LEAST FILTERED INSOLATION/HEATING...THE "UNSTABLE" STAGE
AGAIN WILL BE SET FOR SOME SPOTTY POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ETA PROBABLY OVERDOING IT...IT SUGGESTS THAT
CAPES WILL GROW TO WELL OVER 1K J/KG ACRS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY 18Z.
BUT AGAIN THE ETA/META DRY TODAY WHILE THE GFS/NGM/UKMET SUGGEST
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH UNSTABLE LOW TO MID LAYERS.

WITH A WEAK VORT COMPLEX NOTICEABLE ON W/V IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WANDERING EAST TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA...FEEL AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WORTHY TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BUILDING WARM
WEDGE/INVERSION AT AROUND THE H6 MB LEVEL WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE
IN CHECK AND SPOTTY TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE DURING THE EVENING...BUT BEFORE THEN WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO
HEAR ABOUT A HAILER WHEN COMING BACK ON SHIFT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY KEEP TEMPS ACRS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE
CWA IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...WHILE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. FEEL 82 TO 84 WILL BE ABUNDANT NUMBERS FOR
REPORTED HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM WEAK LAKE EFFECT FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW RIDGE-RIDER VORT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL DROP OVER NORTHERN MN AND WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONCEPTUALLY WITH CVA OFF THIS FEATURE BRUSHING THE
NORTHERN CWA...THERE MAY AGAIN BE A RISK OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
POP-UP CONVECTION OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ALL
MODELS ARE DRY HOWEVER...BUT WILL STILL GO AGAINST THEM AND
INTRODUCE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.

NO CHANGE TO LONGER RANGE...


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

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