[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/10/2003 3:42:09 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 100838
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

SURFACE LOW PRESSUE WAS CENTERED OVER NW IOWA AT 07Z WITH COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN NE AND CENTRAL KS. WARM FRONT EXTENDED 
SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW INTO SE IA.  NICE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING 
ESE THROUGH S CENTRAL AND SE IA AND NRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. LINE 
OF STRONG TSRA BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH UPSTREAM 
ASOS/AWOS REPORTS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR SHOWING GUSTS AROUND 40MPH.  
TIMING SUGGESTS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER MS RIVER BY 0930Z AND 
EXITING SERN CWA AROUND 12Z.  STORMS ARE MOVING INTO MORE STABLE 
AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S AND UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS OVER WEST 
CENTRA IL...THUS SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.  SE 
IA AND NEARBY AREAS OF MO/IL SHOULD GET A GOOD  DRENCHING THOUGH. 
KDMX 88D PCPN ESTIMATES SHOWING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THEIR SERN 
CWA...AND WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80.  

MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING SYNOPTIC SITUATION THROUGH THE 
PERIOD.  EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES.  
MODELS VERIFIED POORLY AT 06Z ON THEIR 6HR FCSTS OF THE SURFACE LOW 
POSITION AND STRENGTH.  THE GFS WAS BY FAR THE WORST SHOWING A 
DEEPER LOW OVER SWRN MN.  THE ETA/NGM WERE ALSO TOO FAR NORTH WITH 
THE LOW BUT NOT AS BAD AS THE GFS.  IN THE SHORT TERM WILL THROW OUT 
THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT MOVES THE LOW OFF TO THE EAST MUCH FASTER 
THAN THE OTHER MODELS.  WILL GO CLOSER TO THE ETA 
SOLUTION...POSITIONING COLD FRONT/TROUGH OVER NW CWA BY 18Z. WILL 
HAVE TO MONITOR CURRENT CONVECTION AND MAKE LAST MINUTE TWEEKS TO 
THE GRIDS.  GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD ORDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS NW AND LIKELY SE WHERE CONDITIONS WILL 
BE MOVE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY 
EVENING.  THERE MAY BE A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT OVER THE SOUTHEAST 
CWA WITH CAPES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG.

AFTER THIS EVENING...QUESTION IS WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT. 
GFS/UKMET CONTINUE TO DRIVE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MO WHILE ETA/NGM KEEP 
JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER.  BASED ON WNW MID LEVEL FLOW AND 
STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL 
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/UKMETS SOUTHERN SOLUTION AND LEAVE 
FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.  NE SURFACE FLOW 
OVER CWA WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.  
MODELS SHOW FRONT CREEPING BACK NORTH LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A 
WEAK SHORT APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL KEEP CURRENT 
FORECAST INTACT...WITH BEST POPS SOUTH NEAR THE BOUNDARY. RAINS OVER 
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND THREAT OF MORE RAIN THIS 
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PRIME SOILS FOR A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT 
LATE THIS WEEK.  GFS/UKMET BOTH SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG BOUNDARY 
FRIDAY...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN AND WILL UPDATE ESF 
ISSUED MONDAY.


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

DLF