[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/8/2003 4:24:14 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 080919
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
419 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2003

ETA STILL DOING POORLY...BUT HAS OBVIOUSLY GOTTEN EDUCATED SOMEWHAT
SINCE YESTERDAY. IRONICALLY 00Z META DOING BETTER THAN ETA.
UKMET/NGM RUC SHOW UPPER LOW TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS CWFA
DURING THE DAY. CURRENT PRECIP IN CENTRAL IOWA TO WRAP INTO CWFA
DURING THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS. ALTHOUGH DOUBTFUL GIVEN LIFT/VORTICITY AN ISOLATED TSRA
COULD OCCUR. TEMPS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH THROUGH MID DAY AS H85 COLD
POOL (OMA +5 AT 00Z) MOVES OVER CWFA. H85 TEMPS GRADUALLY REACH
LEVELS SIMILAR READINGS THAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. THUS HAVE UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A LITTLE.

TONIGHT ANY LINGERING SHRA TO END DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWED
EVENTUALLY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. WINDS TO DROP OFF TONIGHT AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. MONDAY TEMPS
REBOUND BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY GETS REAL INTERESTING. SIGNALS FROM MODELS
POINT TO AN MCS TO MOVE ACROSS CWFA. UKMET HAS BOUNDARY ACROSS CWFA
WITH OTHER MODELS IN VARYING POSITIONS IN OR NORTH OF CWFA. NEW 06Z
META POINTS TO A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA...A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH THAN UKMET. BASED ON H85 LLJ/INFLOW/THETA E ADVECTION
POTENTIAL THERE FOR A POSSIBLE BOW/DERECHO. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN
HWO AND LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE FURTHER.

DIDN/T CHANGE THE EXTENDED BUT SIGNALS FROM GLOBAL MODELS POINT TO
A WARM AND WET PERIOD. DEPENDING ON WHERE BOUNDARY SETS UP CWFA MAY
BE IN MCS ALLEY FOR A WHILE.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF