[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/7/2003 4:41:32 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 070939
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
439 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2003

LIKE LAST NIGHT ETA IS VERIFYING POORLY THROUGH THE FIRST 9 HOURS
AND WAS A WASTE OF CPU TIME. UKMET/NGM STILL DOING THE BEST AND WILL
FOLLOW WITH INPUT FROM RUC IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE RAISED HEADLINES FOR FOG IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. THIS BASED ON TRENDS FROM RUC AND VISIBILITY TRENDS
FROM EXPERIMENTAL RUC RUN AT FSL. FOG TO HAVE A STABILIZING AFFECT
AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHRA DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY EXCEPT ABOUT
THE WESTERN THIRD.

TONIGHT NEXT UPPER LOW TO ARRIVE WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TIMING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS EVENT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHRA BY MID AFTERNOON. SHRA TO LINGER INTO
THE EVENING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST THIRD. WET GROUND/COOL TEMPS
SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

COOLING AFFECT OF MORNING FOG SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPS FROM
YESTERDAYS THINKING. TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A LITTLE
COOLER THAN FRIDAY.

DIDN/T HAVE TIME TO PLAY MUCH WITH EXTENDED DUE TO MORE PRESSING
CONCERNS IN CLOSE. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CHANGED POSITION OF BOUNDARY
A LITTLE...BUT GENERAL TREND IS TO PUSH BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH EACH RUN. SIGNALS STILL THERE FOR TWO SIGNIFICANT MCS
EVENTS TO AFFECT THE CWFA WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

DVN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM.
IA...IA042-054-066>68-078-089-099.
IL...ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...MOZ010.

$$

SF