[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/6/2003 4:21:19 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 060913
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
413 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2003

ETA NOT DEPICTING REALITY AT 3...6...OR 9 HOURS INTO FORECAST CYCLE
AND HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN FAVOR OF BETTER CPU USAGE MODELS. UKMET
NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM 12Z OR YESTERDAYS 00Z RUNS AND THEREFORE
USING IT WITH INPUT FROM AVN/RUC/NGM. UKMET/NGM SHOW STRONG
FORCING TO MOVE ACROSS CWFA DURING THE DAY BRINGING A SOAKING RAIN
TO THE AREA. H85 TEMPS ON UKMET DO NOT BUDGE FROM 06/12Z TO 07/12Z
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S TODAY...ALA MAV NUMBERS. PRECIP
SHOULD CUT OFF IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD AROUND MID AFTERNOON.  TONIGHT
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHRA AS UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ALA
TONIGHT AND LAST NIGHT IN THE PLAINS.

SATURDAY TO BE THE ONLY NICE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB NICELY TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW CLIMO BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. UKMET SOLUTION A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
LOOKS SIMILAR TO SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST MONDAY. H5 LOW TO
MOVE ACROSS CWFA SHOULD SUPPRESS TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH A NEAR
ALL DAY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DIDN/T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED. HOWEVER A FUN TIME IS AHEAD.
UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY PRONOUNCED EAST WEST BOUNDARY/FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA OR NORTHERN MISSOURI. AREA IS PRIMED TO BE IN
MCS ALLEY AROUND MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH BOTH SYSTEMS ON TOP OF WET
SOILS...SO FLOODING IS EXPECTED BY LATE NEXT WEEK ON THE SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF