[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/5/2003 4:19:19 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 050914
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
414 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

FUN TIMES ARE AHEAD. SURFACE RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TODAY AND THIS
EVENING BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WX. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
QUITE STEEP SO SHOULD SEE DIURNAL CU FIRING BY LATE MORNING. LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NGM BETTER MODEL TO FOLLOW. IT WAS THE ONLY
ONE TO CORRECTLY HANDLE SEVERE MCS IN THE PANHANDLE AND ITS
SOLUTION OF BRINGING A WAVE/VORT LOBE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY LOOKS CORRECT. UKMET SUGGESTS THIS AS WELL WITH ECMWF/AVN
INDICATING A STRONG VORT LOBE TO MOVE THROUGH. WIDESPREAD PRECIP
SHOULD END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW AND WEAK VORT MAXES SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED SHRA GOING FRIDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING IN THE DAKOTAS RIGHT NOW.

SATURDAY TO BE THE ONLY QUIET DAY OF THE WEEKEND. SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF CU AROUND WITH WEAK VORT MAXES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY IS QUITE INTERESTING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A GOOD
SOAKING WITH PRECIP LINGERING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HAVE GONE WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR MAXES PERIOD 1
AND DEFINITELY WENT WITH THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR PERIOD 3. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FWC/MAV FOR TONIGHT.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED. TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOKS
REAL INTERESTING WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS LIKELY PER ECMWF/UKMET. NEW
MRF (SURPRISE...SURPRISE) HAS DONE A MAJOR FLIP AND NOW IS
FORECASTING HEAVY RAIN. AS RESULT HAVE ISSUED AND ESF REGARDING
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF