[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/4/2003 3:10:45 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 040805
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2003

UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED AREA PAST COUPLE DAYS GETTING MORE 
DIFFUSE. 00Z ANALYSIS AND MORE RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATE EAST 
TO WEST ELONGATED VORTEX FROM SW LOWER MI ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. NEXT 
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SEEN SHEARING OUT OVER SW SD GETS PULLED INTO 
THIS CIRCULATION...AND ENHANCES THE H5 LOW OVER SAME GENERAL AREA 
TODAY. THUS...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TUESDAY EXPECTED WITH MAIN 
EXCEPTION BEING INITIALLY DRIER LOWER LEVELS SEEN ON KDVN SOUNDING 
AND MUCH HIGHER CLOUD BASES THAT WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO 
PRECIPITATE TO GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN HALF 
IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO UPPER VORTEX AND BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL 
INSTABILITY. RECENT 88D TRENDS SHOWING DEVELOPING SPRINKLES IN THIS 
AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE TO SCATTERED AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE 
OVER REMAINDER OF CWFA WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED MUCH 
LIKE YESTERDAY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOMEWHAT WARMER 
START...COMBINED WITH PATCHY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST HIGHS A 
FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY...AND WENT CLOSEST TO COOLER MAV 
GUIDANCE IN UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

NEXT WAVE IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SEEN IN CURRENT TIGHT 
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ARRIVES OUT OF NORTHERN 
PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING IT PASSING ALONG IA/MN 
BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. IN MEAN TIME...SURFACE RIDGE FROM MN TO 
NORTHEAST KS PUSHES EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH BREAK 
BETWEEN H5 CIRCULATIONS OVERHEAD AS UPPER CIRCULATION TO EAST 
FINALLY MOVES ON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR TONIGHT AND SET 
STAGE FOR COLD TEMPERATURES AND GOING LOWS IN MID 40S TO AROUND 50 
LOOK GOOD. SOME FOG OCCURRING UNDER RIDGE OUT WEST EARLY THIS 
MORNING...BUT WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND WILL NOT PLACE 
IN GRIDS JUST YET. ON THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST MORNING SUNSHINE AND 
SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...WE SHOULD SEE 
SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY INTO 70S. ON-GOING HANDLING OF ONSET OF TSRA 
CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS GOOD AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AT 
H85 WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. WITH AFOREMENTIONED WAVE 
PASSING NORTH AND SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY...HAVE GONE 
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL ZONES AND KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING. LATEST 
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS YET ANOTHER...AND LIKELY STRONGER 
WAVE...THROUGH IN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME AND ANOTHER ROUND OF 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN 
EXTENDED.      

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

SHEETS
$$