[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/1/2003 3:36:47 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 010833
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
333 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2003

PLENTY OF CLOUDS SPILLING OVER CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE KEEPING 
TEMPERATURES FROM PLUNGING TOO MUCH OVER EAST CENTRAL IA AND 
NORTHEAST MO EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STILL UNSEASONABLY COOL 
ESPECIALLY OVER NW IL WHERE COMBINATION OF LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND 
ONLY THIN CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN START THIS MORNING ONLY AROUND 
40 WITH FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE...WHILE 40S WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER 
MOST OF EASTERN IA. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 06Z SHOWED HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR MSP AT 06Z...WITH LEE TROUGH FROM NEB PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST 
CO. CLOUD COVER WAS AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER 
ND EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONGER...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE 
PRODUCING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MT WILL BRING NEXT 
PRECIP CHANCES IN MONDAY TIMEFRAME AND THIS IS MAIN SHORT TERM 
FORECAST CHALLENGE. 

TODAY...SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN MOIST NW UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW. THIS...ALONG WITH DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AROUND 
DEPARTING HIGH AND COLD DIURNAL START...WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO UPPER 
60S TO LOWER 70S CLOSEST TO GFS MOS. AREA 88DS SHOWING SOME 
REFLECTIVITY AHEAD OF WAVE PUSHING INTO S CENTRAL MN...BUT THIS 
SHOULD STAY VIRGA AS AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY MID LEVELS. 

MONDAY...WILL STAY THE COURSE FOLLOWING MOST CONSISTENTLY STRONGER 
GFS SOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER POPS...30 TO 40...FOR MONDAY.
00Z UKMET BACKS UP THIS STRONGER GFS SOLUTION...WITH  AFOREMENTIONED 
MT SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS OVER CWFA WITH BEST CHANCES 
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HAVE TRIMMED BACK TS MENTION TO ISOLATED AND 
THEN ONLY IN SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPER AND FORCING 
STRONGER. 

DAY 3 AND BEYOND...NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVES 
WED WITH FROPA AND TSRA CHANCES LEFT INTACT. BETTER UPPER FORCING 
APPEARS TO STAY TO NORTH. RAIN CHANCES KEPT IN FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER 
WAVE BRUSHES NORTHEAST. OVERALL...CONTINUED RECENT TREND OF BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AREA REMAINING CUT OFF FROM GULF MOISTURE.
 
DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$
SHEETS