From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sun Jun  1 10:38:27 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sun, 01 Jun 2003 04:38:27 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/1/2003 4:38:26 AM
Message-ID: <200306010938.EAA00837@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 010935
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-021000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
435 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY OVER FAR NORTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE BETTER
DEFINED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

SHEETS





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sun Jun  1 09:36:48 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sun, 01 Jun 2003 03:36:48 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/1/2003 3:36:47 AM
Message-ID: <200306010837.DAA21231@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 010833
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
333 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2003

PLENTY OF CLOUDS SPILLING OVER CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE KEEPING 
TEMPERATURES FROM PLUNGING TOO MUCH OVER EAST CENTRAL IA AND 
NORTHEAST MO EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STILL UNSEASONABLY COOL 
ESPECIALLY OVER NW IL WHERE COMBINATION OF LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND 
ONLY THIN CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN START THIS MORNING ONLY AROUND 
40 WITH FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE...WHILE 40S WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER 
MOST OF EASTERN IA. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 06Z SHOWED HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR MSP AT 06Z...WITH LEE TROUGH FROM NEB PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST 
CO. CLOUD COVER WAS AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER 
ND EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONGER...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE 
PRODUCING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MT WILL BRING NEXT 
PRECIP CHANCES IN MONDAY TIMEFRAME AND THIS IS MAIN SHORT TERM 
FORECAST CHALLENGE. 

TODAY...SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN MOIST NW UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW. THIS...ALONG WITH DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AROUND 
DEPARTING HIGH AND COLD DIURNAL START...WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO UPPER 
60S TO LOWER 70S CLOSEST TO GFS MOS. AREA 88DS SHOWING SOME 
REFLECTIVITY AHEAD OF WAVE PUSHING INTO S CENTRAL MN...BUT THIS 
SHOULD STAY VIRGA AS AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY MID LEVELS. 

MONDAY...WILL STAY THE COURSE FOLLOWING MOST CONSISTENTLY STRONGER 
GFS SOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER POPS...30 TO 40...FOR MONDAY.
00Z UKMET BACKS UP THIS STRONGER GFS SOLUTION...WITH  AFOREMENTIONED 
MT SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS OVER CWFA WITH BEST CHANCES 
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HAVE TRIMMED BACK TS MENTION TO ISOLATED AND 
THEN ONLY IN SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPER AND FORCING 
STRONGER. 

DAY 3 AND BEYOND...NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVES 
WED WITH FROPA AND TSRA CHANCES LEFT INTACT. BETTER UPPER FORCING 
APPEARS TO STAY TO NORTH. RAIN CHANCES KEPT IN FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER 
WAVE BRUSHES NORTHEAST. OVERALL...CONTINUED RECENT TREND OF BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AREA REMAINING CUT OFF FROM GULF MOISTURE.
 
DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$
SHEETS










From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun  2 19:53:45 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Mon, 02 Jun 2003 13:53:45 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/2/2003 1:53:44 PM
Message-ID: <200306021853.NAA06417@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 021852
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
150 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2003

SYNOPSIS-
RATHER COLD PCPN EVENT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE AREA 
TODAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CUTS OFF OVER IOWA AND 
ILLINOIS.  AS OF MID MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 60S 
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 
MID 40S.  DENSE CLOUD COVER AND SOME -RA HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN 
IOWA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. ALOFT...AT 12Z A STRONG SHORT WAVE STRETCHED 
FROM CENTRAL ND THROUGH OK...WITH 60DM FALLS. FURTHER 
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST 
BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH NORTHERN CA. A NARROW TONGUE OF MOISTURE 
FROM THE GULF CONNECTED TO AN 850MB LOW OVER EASTERN KS.  DRY AIR AT 
850MB WAS FOUND THROUGHOUT THE GREAT LAKES.

FORECAST-
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY 
SATURATE THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES MAY HAVE 
TO WAIT TILL EARLY EVENING.  EITHER WAY...CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LIGHT 
RAIN ARE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FWC GUIDANCE 
WITH LOWS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS ALL 
OF THE AREA UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN.  

CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY 
TUESDAY...AS MODELS HAVE DECIDEDLY SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER 
LOW INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE PHASING 
OF THE WESTERN SHORT WAVE TROF MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS WITH THE 
MAIN TROF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GFS IS QUITE SLOW WITH 
DECAYING CUT OFF LOW. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE THE MOST REASONABLE 
SOLUTION...AS IT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS EAST THROUGH MID DAY 
WEDNESDAY.  WILL INCLUDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY/TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON...AND GO DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO WEDNESDAY NOON.  WILL 
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TUESDAY AND UPPER 60S 
WEDNESDAY UNDER CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST FLOW.  

UPPER AND SURFACE FLOW BACKS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM 
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  DECENT CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ETA 
WITH BRINGING IN A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS 
WELL AS REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES. LEFT REMAINDER OF EXTENDED DRY 
TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING FORECAST WHICH IS RATHER CLOSE TO MEX 
GUIDANCE.

THANKS FOR ISC COORDINATION EVERYONE!

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

ERVIN

















From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun  3 09:18:41 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 03 Jun 2003 03:18:41 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/3/2003 3:18:40 AM
Message-ID: <200306030819.DAA10939@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 030815
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
315 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003

UPPER LOW DRIFTING INTO SW WI PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS OVER CWFA WITH 
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ON 88D AND METARS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLY THIS 
MORNING. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW CONTINUES TO 
CHURN SLOWLY EAST WITH EACH MODEL RUN SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESS 
SOME. ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WAS OBVIOUS IN 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 07Z MOVING INTO NORTHWEST SD. FORECAST MODELS 
IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS VORT MOVING EAST-SE BUT NOT HAVING MUCH 
IMPACT LOCALLY AS UPPER LOW TO NORTHEAST REMAINS PREDOMINANT FEATURE 
FEATURE AS IT MOVES ONLY INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI BY MIDDAY WED. AT 
SURFACE...LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN TIP IL AND HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER 
SOUTHERN MN EXTENDING NORTHEAST WELL INTO ONTARIO. THE LOW SCOOTS 
QUICKLY AWAY TO EAST LEAVING BROAD WEAK SURFACE HIGH TO NORTH AND 
DEEP MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN 
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SHORT TERM PRECIP CHANCES AND UNSEASONABLY 
COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF WEEK.  

MODELS THIS RUN WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES 
THAN PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY FOLLOWED AVN SOLUTION DUE TO ITS RUN TO 
RUN CONTINUITY. 

TODAY...WEAK LIFT ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN WI UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE 
LIFT FOR MAINLY DRIZZLE WITH BEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 DURING 
MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT 
PRECIPITATION AND WILL PROVIDE MENTION TO ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. 
THIS...ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A WARMUP TODAY 
AND THUS STAYED ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOW 60S BEING 
OPTIMISTIC. CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH NIGHT AS UPPER LOW SEEMS TO GET 
REINVIGORATED JUST TO OUR EAST OR NORTHEAST. DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL 
DRYING OF LOWEST LAYERS TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...BUT 
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOOKS CERTAIN. LOWS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO...OR A 
TAD BELOW PROJECTED LOWS FOR THIS MORNING AND CLOSE TO MOS 
GUIDANCE. ON WEDNESDAY... WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND BRING IN SOME 
PARTIAL CLEARING TO NORTHWEST...BUT KEEP CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. EVEN 
PARTIAL JUNE SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET US BACK 
INTO MID TO UPPER 60S.

NEXT UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA...SLIDES DOWN INTO NORTHERN 
PLAINS BY THURSDAY WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND RETURN MOISTURE FLOW AT 
H85 DEVELOPING BY EVENING INTO EASTERN IA. THIS WILL BE NEXT CHANCE 
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AT SURFACE IN 
ADVANCE OF SYSTEM WILL BE ENOUGH TO BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO LOWER 70S 
ON THURSDAY. SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY FOR GOOD CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS AND KEPT POPS INTO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME TIMING 
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. LATEST GFS TRENDING TOWARD CANADIAN WITH 
YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY AND WILL INTRODUCE 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO 
TEMPERATURES OVER WEEKEND. 
 
DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

SHEETS
$$





















From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun  3 11:18:37 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 03 Jun 2003 05:18:37 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/3/2003 5:18:36 AM
Message-ID: <200306031018.FAA01676@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 031016
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-041000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
515 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LEVELS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE BETTER DEFINED IN FUTURE
OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

SHEETS





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun  3 20:56:06 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 03 Jun 2003 14:56:06 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/3/2003 2:56:05 PM
Message-ID: <200306031956.OAA29752@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 031954
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
250 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003

CUT-OFF UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT WILL CONTINUE TO GYRATE OVER
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD KEEP WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY GOING ON ALONG VORT GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE
OF THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING. CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT
FOG AND LOW TEMP POTENTIAL TO BE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE BACKING EAST LLVL FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST...TO
HAVE DRIER INFLUX/SOME SCOURING EFFECT ACRS THE NORTHEAST HALF TO 1/3
OF THE CWA. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
INSOLATION LOSS AND THUS LOWER TEMPS IN THESE AREAS(MID UPPER 40S)...
WITH POTENTIAL OF PATCHY GROUND FOG. FEEL FOG POTENTIAL NOT
WIDESPREAD OR SUBSTANTIAL/DENSE ENOUGH FOR ZONE MENTION THOUGH.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING NEXT UPSTREAM VORT NICELY OVER THE
DAKOTAS...AND APPEARS TO BE ON A TRACK TO ROTATE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVER THE AREA ON WED. BUT SHORT RANGE MODELS SEEM TO GET
LOST WITH/MISHANDLE THIS WAVE EVOLVEMENT. PORTIONS OF IT GET INGESTED
INTO COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE BULK OF IT STARTS TO
GET SUCKED BACK NORTH BY APPROACHING AND MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE
DROPPING DOWN ACRS SASKATCHEWAN. IF MODELS ARE WRONG AND UPSTREAM
WAVE MAKES IT ACRS...MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT WITH STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS BY WED AFTERNOON. IF
SYSTEM DISSOLVES OR HOLDS BACK SUDDENLY...STILL MAY BE ENOUGH EFFECT
OFF WEST LOBE OF SLOWLY MIGRATING MAIN VORT ALREADY IN PLACE FOR A
SHOWER CHANCE. THUS WILL TOY WITH INTRODUCING LOW POPS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. WITH STEEP 1000-H85 MB LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH LINGERING
RH'S...SEEM PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO REMAIN WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 60S...UNTIL SOME CLEAR OUT WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE
AXIS WED NIGHT. WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS...BREAK IN SKY COVER...AND ANY
LINGERING SFC MOISTURE...MAY BE BETTER FOG POTENTIAL FOR EARLY THU
MORNING. WILL LEAN TOWARD...OR EVEN UNDERCUT COOLER FWC LOWS FOR THU
MORNING. THE COOL NIGHTS OF JUNE CONTINUE.

AS SFC RIDE RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THU...SOME RETURN FLOW TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF NEXT MAJOR UPSTREAM WAVE(ABOVE MENTIONED
SASKATCHEWAN VORT). WITH SOME MODERATION AND AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES BEFORE NEXT ONSLAUGHT OF CLOUD COVER BY LATER THU AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO BREACH THE 70
DEGREE MARK. WITH LLVL RIDGE COMPLEXES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
TEMPORARILY BLOCKING BETTER LLVL MOISTURE FEED/RETARDING ADEQUATE
SATURATION...WOULD THINK PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LATE SPRING
CLIPPER WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THU NIGHT. ETA SUGGESTING SOME NICE
1000-H85 MB THTA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE PUSHING ACRS THE WESTERN
CWA BY 00Z FRI. POS OMEGAS EXPLODE AFTER 00Z FRI OVER THE AREA AS
WELL...AND EXTENT OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT THUNDER WORDING.

.LONGER RANGE(FRI-TUE)...WILL TAKE GENERAL BLEND OF LATEST ECMWF AND
MRF TO RIDE OUT EXTENDED PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE LIKELY PRECIP EVENT ON
FRI...AS BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SPILL UPPER VORT DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. EUROPEAN SOLUTION INDICATES
MAIN SFC LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER MO WITH INVERTED TROUGH
TO THE NORTH...WHILE EX. GFS HAS NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH WITH MAIN
SFC LOW. ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA
EXPERIENCING MORE OF A OVERRUNING RAIN EVENT. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS
OUT...PRECIP AND EAST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST TEMP
GUIDANCE TOO WARM. XGFS SUPPORTS L0WER 70S EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP. WILL TAKE BLEND. TEMPORARY RIDGING BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS WILL
THEN MAKE FOR A FAIR SATURDAY. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE TO
DROP DOWN OVER IA AND IL FOR ANOTHER PRECIP THREAT SUNDAY. MRF DIGS
THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE EURO OR UKMET...BUT BOTH THESE
MODELS CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SOONER THAN THE MRF...WHICH MAINTAINS OPEN
WAVE UNTIL LATE MONDAY. NORTHWARD PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF SFC SYSTEM
AT QUESTION...AND WOULD OF COURSE ALTER HEAVIER QPF BAND. BIT FURTHER
SOUTH MRF EVEN SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING EVENT
AS MAIN SFC LOW RIMS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN CWA. WILL KEEP SHOWER/
STORM CHANCE FOR NOW....AND AWAIT FURTHER RUNS. MRF INDICATING
SLOWING/CUTTING OFF OF UPPER SYSTEM TO LINGER SHOWERS INTO MONDAY...
WHILE UKMET AND EURO OPEN UP THE WAVE AND SHUNTING IT QUICKER OFF TO
THE EAST. WILL TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER EVOLVEMENT AND KEEP PRECIP
CHANCE AT LEAST INTO EARLY MONDAY. AS YET ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM ORGANIZES ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT
SHOULD DRAW WARMER AIR UP OUT AHEAD OF IT FOR REBOUNDING HIGHS
PUSHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK NEXT TUESDAY.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

12





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun  3 21:14:17 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (R. Patrick Ryan)
Date: Tue, 3 Jun 2003 15:14:17 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] NOAA WX testing
Message-ID: <20030603.152014.1788.6.kc6vvt@juno.com>

Be alert as NWS tests new NOAA weather radio function.
Follow all instructions given, in case more tests follow.

First report in from Plainfield Roger Bonuchi" bonuchi01@Ameritech.net
quoted below:
"I got a surprise today with that Illinois Amber alert at 11:01.  It came
across the SAME radio as "Unknown Emergency Tune TV".   I called WEMA and
asked what was up.  They told me about the Amber test with real message
headers from he State Police and the NWS. "

vy 73 de Pat Ryan KC6VVT
Illinois Section Emergency Coordinator, ARRL
P. O. Box 24
Tonica, IL 61370-0024   
kc6vvt@arrl.net

________________________________________________________________
The best thing to hit the internet in years - Juno SpeedBand!
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From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun  4 00:10:03 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Tue, 3 Jun 2003 18:10:03 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLK043 Keplerian data
Message-ID: <20030603211502.13937.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB KEP @ ARL $ARLK043
ARLK043 Keplerian data

ZCZC SK43
QST de W1AW =20
Keplerian Bulletin 43  ARLK043
>From ARRL Headquarters
Newington, CT  June 3, 2003
To all radio amateurs=20

SB KEP ARL ARLK043
ARLK043 Keplerian data

Thanks to Con, W5BWF, for the following Keplerian data. =20

Decode 2-line elsets with the following key:
1 AAAAAU 00  0  0 BBBBB.BBBBBBBB  .CCCCCCCC  00000-0  00000-0 0  DDDZ
2 AAAAA EEE.EEEE FFF.FFFF GGGGGGG HHH.HHHH III.IIII JJ.JJJJJJJJKKKKKZ
KEY: A-CATALOGNUM B-EPOCHTIME C-DECAY D-ELSETNUM E-INCLINATION F-RAAN
G-ECCENTRICITY H-ARGPERIGEE I-MNANOM J-MNMOTION K-ORBITNUM Z-CHECKSUM

AO-07
1 07530U 74089B   03153.52002526 -.00000029  00000-0  10000-3 0  1748
2 07530 101.7422 200.2522 0011871 239.0410 120.9497 12.53565439306211
AO-10
1 14129U 83058B   03153.35026799  .00000092  00000-0  10000-3 0  9393
2 14129  26.1789 147.4884 5989988 357.0278   0.5076  2.05867823122202
UO-11
1 14781U 84021B   03154.19696242  .00000829  00000-0  12155-3 0  1648
2 14781  98.1329 129.0605 0008293 230.1511 129.8970 14.78278516 31697
UO-14
1 20437U 90005B   03153.66318301  .00000135  00000-0  66404-4 0  2468
2 20437  98.2549 192.2110 0009768 252.8290 107.1823 14.31271570697385
AO-16
1 20439U 90005D   03153.80055554  .00000167  00000-0  78314-4 0  9122
2 20439  98.2989 204.6245 0010032 255.6151 104.3931 14.31512399697448
FO-20
1 20480U 90013C   03152.92224177 -.00000019  00000-0  21355-4 0  4954
2 20480  99.0638  96.3312 0540995 129.7841 235.2202 12.83332772623778
UO-22
1 21575U 91050B   03154.21085365  .00000235  00000-0  88897-4 0  8159
2 21575  98.1497 141.1463 0007482 168.5800 191.5560 14.39223226623337
AO-27
1 22825U 93061C   03154.22410976  .00000114  00000-0  61264-4 0  5717
2 22825  98.2619 178.5328 0007677 316.1722  43.8850 14.28978646504821
IO-26
1 22826U 93061D   03153.53784453  .00000277  00000-0  12533-3 0  3616
2 22826  98.2631 179.0406 0008467 316.6822  43.3702 14.29205655504772
RS-15
1 23439U 94085A   03153.68409335 -.00000053  00000-0 -31289-3 0  7047
2 23439  64.8148 233.1171 0145732  94.7763 266.9708 11.27548119347337
FO-29
1 24278U 96046B   03154.41079519 -.00000058  00000-0 -19591-4 0  5931
2 24278  98.5554 291.4828 0350371 304.9219  51.9457 13.52880344335484
ISS
1 25544U 98067A   03154.33778006  .00013752  00000-0  17816-3 0   756
2 25544  51.6328  89.8277 0006488 207.2056 295.6050 15.59175709258849
SO-41
1 26545U 00057A   03153.53266951  .00000881  00000-0  13580-3 0  4748
2 26545  64.5592  72.3290 0043652 222.0965 137.6788 14.79220905144596
MO-46
1 26548U 00057D   03153.25687743  .00001121  00000-0  15920-3 0  4766
2 26548  64.5591  64.8932 0036942 223.3238 136.4960 14.81579786144729
AO-40
1 26609U 00072B   03152.63466107 -.00000225  00000-0  10000-3 0  3354
2 26609   8.8604  46.0294 7960722 180.2908 177.6227  1.25597806 11880
NO-44
1 26931U 01043C   03154.07947098  .00000047  00000-0  50897-4 0  4894
2 26931  67.0472 346.5501 0006464 275.7702  84.2661 14.29169816 87282
SO-50
1 27607U 02058C   03153.72834194  .00000722  00000-0  14048-3 0  1406
2 27607  64.5507 242.0749 0037674  61.6125 298.8759 14.70120918 24116

Keplerian bulletins are transmitted twice weekly from W1AW. =20
The next scheduled transmission of these data will be Friday,=20
June 6, 2003, at 2230z on Baudot and AMTOR.
NNNN
/EX



From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun  4 03:13:11 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Tony Coniglio)
Date: Tue, 3 Jun 2003 21:13:11 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLB038 New 60-meter band becomes available July 3
Message-ID: <000701c32a3e$dafba650$3b040640@yourm5d4u9r2uv>




> SB QST @ ARL $ARLB038
> ARLB038 New 60-meter band becomes available July 3
> 
> ZCZC AG38
> QST de W1AW  
> ARRL Bulletin 38  ARLB038
> >From ARRL Headquarters  
> Newington CT  June 3, 2003
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB QST ARL ARLB038
> ARLB038 New 60-meter band becomes available July 3
> 
> The new five-channel 60-meter domestic secondary amateur allocation
> becomes available to US Amateur Radio operators at midnight local
> time on July 3. The FCC Report and Order granting the allocation was
> published June 3 in the Federal Register. Federal government users
> are primary in the 5 MHz band.
> 
> The FCC has granted amateurs use of five 2.8 kHz-wide channels with
> center frequencies of 5332, 5348, 5368, 5373 and 5405 kHz. The
> channels will be available to General and higher class licensees.
> The only permitted mode will be upper-sideband USB phone, and 50 W
> ERP is the maximum power allowed.
> 
> Users of the 60-meter channels should set their carrier frequency
> 1.5 kHz lower than the channel center frequency. ARRL suggests
> restricting transmitted audio bandwidth to 200 Hz on the low end and
> 2800 Hz on the high end for a total bandwidth of 2.6 kHz. ARRL
> recommends that amateurs considering modifying existing amateur
> equipment for operation on 60 meters contact the equipment's
> manufacturer for advice.
> NNNN
> /EX

From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun  4 04:32:11 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 03 Jun 2003 22:32:11 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/3/2003 10:32:10 PM
Message-ID: <200306040332.WAA08329@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 040330
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1030 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003

UPDATE TO BE OUT SHORTLY TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.  SINCE THE 
SHOWERS FINALLY SAW FIT TO DRY UP...WILL ALSO BE REMOVING THE SHOWERS
AND POPS.  FOG OVERNIGHT MAY BE OF SIGNIFICANT CONCERN...WITH HIGH 
DEWPOINTS AND RECENT RAINFALL.  LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IS ADVECTING IN 
DRIER DEWPOINTS OF MID 40S INSTEAD OF THE NEAR 50 VALUES CURRENTLY 
OVER CWA...BUT ADVECTION NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING IN THE DRIER AIR 
VERY FAST.   IT APPEARS THAT THE NS LAYER WILL BE HANGING IN TOUGH 
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL EFFECTS TO 
ENHANCE ANY FOG FORMATION.  THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE NS LAYER MAY 
DRIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LEAVE THE FAR NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA IN 
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARIN...SO WILL THROW IN SOME FOG WORDING INTO 
THOSE ZONE GROUPS FOR OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES 
TO FORECAST.  

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

LE







From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun  4 09:10:46 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 04 Jun 2003 03:10:46 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/4/2003 3:10:45 AM
Message-ID: <200306040812.DAA10953@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 040805
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2003

UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED AREA PAST COUPLE DAYS GETTING MORE 
DIFFUSE. 00Z ANALYSIS AND MORE RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATE EAST 
TO WEST ELONGATED VORTEX FROM SW LOWER MI ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. NEXT 
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SEEN SHEARING OUT OVER SW SD GETS PULLED INTO 
THIS CIRCULATION...AND ENHANCES THE H5 LOW OVER SAME GENERAL AREA 
TODAY. THUS...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TUESDAY EXPECTED WITH MAIN 
EXCEPTION BEING INITIALLY DRIER LOWER LEVELS SEEN ON KDVN SOUNDING 
AND MUCH HIGHER CLOUD BASES THAT WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO 
PRECIPITATE TO GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN HALF 
IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO UPPER VORTEX AND BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL 
INSTABILITY. RECENT 88D TRENDS SHOWING DEVELOPING SPRINKLES IN THIS 
AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE TO SCATTERED AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE 
OVER REMAINDER OF CWFA WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED MUCH 
LIKE YESTERDAY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOMEWHAT WARMER 
START...COMBINED WITH PATCHY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST HIGHS A 
FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY...AND WENT CLOSEST TO COOLER MAV 
GUIDANCE IN UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

NEXT WAVE IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SEEN IN CURRENT TIGHT 
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ARRIVES OUT OF NORTHERN 
PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING IT PASSING ALONG IA/MN 
BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. IN MEAN TIME...SURFACE RIDGE FROM MN TO 
NORTHEAST KS PUSHES EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH BREAK 
BETWEEN H5 CIRCULATIONS OVERHEAD AS UPPER CIRCULATION TO EAST 
FINALLY MOVES ON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR TONIGHT AND SET 
STAGE FOR COLD TEMPERATURES AND GOING LOWS IN MID 40S TO AROUND 50 
LOOK GOOD. SOME FOG OCCURRING UNDER RIDGE OUT WEST EARLY THIS 
MORNING...BUT WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND WILL NOT PLACE 
IN GRIDS JUST YET. ON THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST MORNING SUNSHINE AND 
SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...WE SHOULD SEE 
SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY INTO 70S. ON-GOING HANDLING OF ONSET OF TSRA 
CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS GOOD AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AT 
H85 WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. WITH AFOREMENTIONED WAVE 
PASSING NORTH AND SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY...HAVE GONE 
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL ZONES AND KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING. LATEST 
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS YET ANOTHER...AND LIKELY STRONGER 
WAVE...THROUGH IN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME AND ANOTHER ROUND OF 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN 
EXTENDED.      

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

SHEETS
$$








From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun  4 10:57:55 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 04 Jun 2003 04:57:55 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/4/2003 4:57:54 AM
Message-ID: <200306040958.EAA00190@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 040955
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-051000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
454 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY...AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL
IN QUESTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETTER
DEFINED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

SHEETS





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun  4 20:51:26 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 04 Jun 2003 14:51:26 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/4/2003 2:51:25 PM
Message-ID: <200306041951.OAA20187@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 041949
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
245 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2003

LINGERING VORT LOBE ALOFT...COMBINING WITH TEMPS RISING ABOVE
THE CONVECTIVE LEVELS/UNSTABLE LOWER LAYERS...TO CREATE SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION OCCURRING
MAINLY ALONG LATEST MSAS INDICATED SFC CONVERGENT(WEAK) ZONE FROM
NORTH OF ALO...TO CID...AND TO SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. LOW WBZ'S
AND FREEZING LEVELS HAVE ALLOWED ANY SUBSTANTIAL/SUSTAINING SHOWER OR
STORM TO PRODUCE AT LEAST PEA SIZE HAIL. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACRS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE LOSS OF INSOLATION KILLS IT.

THEN WEAK SFC RIDGE TO OCCUPY THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LIGHT WIND REGIME AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH LAST NIGHTS PROJECTED LOWS(UPPER 40S-50)...AND
MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG. STILL NOT SURE ENOUGH OF FOG
THREAT EXISTS TO BE ZONE MENTIONABLE...BUT MAY THROW IT IN LOOKING AT
WHAT HAPPENED IN RIDGE AXIS FURTHER TO THE WEST LAST NIGHT.

STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES(1000-H85 PROGGED AT UP TO 9.3 C/KM) CONTINUE
ON THU FOR CU FACTORY...BUT WILL BANK ON VORT COMPLEX CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD...TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR WESTWARD TAILING LOBE NOT TO
KICK OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN. SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL PROG
NEGATIVE OMEGAS AND NVA ON THU THROUGH THE COLUMN AS WELL. BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE(GETTING TOWARD STRONGEST
INSOLATION OF THE YEAR) SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S FOR THU HIGHS...EVEN AFTER BIT COOLER START TO THE DAY.

NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE..."SNAIL SHELL" VORT SEEN ACRS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL SASK...IS GENERALLY PROGGED TO ROLL JUST TO THE NORTH
ACRS MN ON FRI. THUS LOOKS LIKE BEST UPPER FORCING AND DYNAMICS TO
REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH IN LEE OF SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH SOUTHWARD
TRAILING PUNCH TO SUPPORT ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ON
FRI. THIS SYSTEM TO ACTUALLY DRAWS LEAD VORTS UP OUT OF SOUTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH AND OVER THE LOCAL AREA AFTER 06Z FRI. MODEL TRENDS
OF SLOWING THIS PROCESS...AS WELL AS DELAY IN ADEQUATE SATURATION
WITH INTERVENTION OF OH RVR VALLEY RIDGE AND GULF MOUTH SYSTEM...
SUGGESTS PRECIP THU NIGHT NOT TO GET INTO THE WESTERN CWA TIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAY NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING PRECIP CHANCE ACRS THE EAST
UNTIL FRIDAY. WITH SFC AND UPPER SYSTEMS SPIRALING JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TO LAST
INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF INSOLATION PUTS LID ON CONVECTION
FOR THE NIGHT.

.LONGER RANGE(SAT-WED)...GENERAL PHASING ISSUES STILL THERE IN
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HANDLING OF OCCASIONAL SYSTEMS DROPPING OUT OF
CANADA AND ACRS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MUDDLE
OUT AN ENSEMBLE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE MRF/UKMET/ECMWF. AS FRI SYSTEM
PULLS OUT OF THE AREA...TEMPORARY RIDGING STILL SHOULD MAKE FOR DRY
AND MODERATING SAT. BUT MODELS SUGGEST LINGERING VORT LOBE JUST TO
THE NORTH...OFF EASTWARD PROGRESSING WAVE COMPLEX...MAY COMBINE WITH
INSTABILITY TO CREATE SHOWER POTENTIAL BLEEDING SOUTH INTO THE CWA AS
THE DAY GOES. WILL KEEP SAT DRY FOR NOW AND BUMP UP TEMPS INTO THE
MID UPPER 70S...LOOKING AT PROJECTED THERMAL PROFILES. NEXT IN LINE
VORT/CLOSED UPPER LOW STILL LOOKS ON TARGET TO ROLL OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND ACRS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MRF SLOWEST WITH CLOSED
UPPER FEATURE AND MAY BE THE MORE CORRECT...SUGGESTING SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING. SLOW UPPER SYSTEM STILL TO CREATE WRAP AROUND INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ON MONDAY...AND WITH ASSOCIATED COOL POOL AND CLOUD COVER...
HIGHS MAY HAVE TROUBLE GETTING OUT OF THE 60S. GOOD TEMP MODERATION
STILL LOOKS ON TAP FOR TUE AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY
WAA'S AHEAD OF NEXT MAIN NORTHERN PLAINS/ SOUTHERN CANADA SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM TO PROGRESS IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR PRECIP CHANCE IN THE
LOCAL AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED.


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

12





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun  4 22:36:56 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Wed, 4 Jun 2003 16:36:56 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLB038 New 60-meter band becomes available July 3
Message-ID: <20030603222843.12004.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB QST @ ARL $ARLB038
ARLB038 New 60-meter band becomes available July 3

ZCZC AG38
QST de W1AW =20
ARRL Bulletin 38  ARLB038
>From ARRL Headquarters =20
Newington CT  June 3, 2003
To all radio amateurs=20

SB QST ARL ARLB038
ARLB038 New 60-meter band becomes available July 3

The new five-channel 60-meter domestic secondary amateur allocation
becomes available to US Amateur Radio operators at midnight local
time on July 3. The FCC Report and Order granting the allocation was
published June 3 in the Federal Register. Federal government users
are primary in the 5 MHz band.

The FCC has granted amateurs use of five 2.8 kHz-wide channels with
center frequencies of 5332, 5348, 5368, 5373 and 5405 kHz. The
channels will be available to General and higher class licensees.
The only permitted mode will be upper-sideband USB phone, and 50 W
ERP is the maximum power allowed.

Users of the 60-meter channels should set their carrier frequency
1.5 kHz lower than the channel center frequency. ARRL suggests
restricting transmitted audio bandwidth to 200 Hz on the low end and
2800 Hz on the high end for a total bandwidth of 2.6 kHz. ARRL
recommends that amateurs considering modifying existing amateur
equipment for operation on 60 meters contact the equipment's
manufacturer for advice.
NNNN
/EX



From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun  4 22:37:13 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Wed, 4 Jun 2003 16:37:13 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARRL Contest Rate Sheet for June 04, 2003
Message-ID: <20030604041737.16925.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

***********************
Contester's Rate Sheet
4 June 2003
***********************

Edited by Ward Silver, N0AX

SUMMARY
o June VHF QSO Party -- June 14, 15, 16 -- this is the Big One!
o World-Wide Young Contesters Web site
o AEA-Wireless' new impedance analyzer
o Roger Western G3SXW's new book
o W9CF's new transmission line calculator Web site
o WRTC-Style Contesting in the IARU-HF Championship

BULLETINS
o No bulletins in this issue

BUSTED QSOS
o The correct URL for the ARCI Hootowl Sprint is
http://personal.palouse.net/rfoltz/arci/hoot.htm. The Holiday Sprint
Web URL was mistakenly cut-and-pasted into last week's edition.
(Thanks, Tom K1KI)
o The correct URL for the Baltic Contest has been changed to=20
http://www.lrsf.lt/BContest/index.htm and the CQ WW WPX Web site URL
is actually  http://home.woh.rr.com/wpx/. (Thanks, Bob W2SR)

ANNOUNCEMENT & NOTICES FOR 4 JUNE TO 17 JUNE 2003

Logs are due for the following contests:

June 4 - ARI International DX Contest, email to: aricontest@ari.it,
paper logs to: ARI Contest Manager, Fabio Schettino, I4UFH, PO BOX
1677, I-40100 Bologna, Italy

June 6 - MARAC County Hunter Contest, CW, email to: w3dya@juno.com,
paper logs to: Norm Beavers, W3DYA, 3320 McMillan Dr, Tyler, TX
75701-8239, USA

June 7 - 50 MHz Spring Sprint, email to: springsprints@etdxa.org,
paper logs to: 50 MHz Spring Sprint, ETDXA/WU4O, Jeff J. Baker, 8218
Foxworth Trail, Powell, TN 37849, USA

June 9 - FISTS Spring Sprint, email to: W8PIG@yahoo.com, paper logs
to: Dan Shepherd, N8IE, 1900 Pittsfield St, Kettering, OH 45420, USA

June 10 - Oregon QSO Party, email to: k4xu@arrl.net, paper logs to:
Oregon QSO Party, c/o K9QAM, 23083 Maverick Lane, Bend, OR 97701, USA

June 15 - GACW CW DX Contest, email to: uranito@infovia.com.ar, paper
logs to: GACW DX Contest, PO Box 9, B1875ZAA Wilde, Buenos Aires,
Argentina

June 15 - Indiana QSO Party, email to: inqp@hdxcc.org, paper logs to:
HDXCC, c/o Mike Goode, N9NS, 10340 Broadway, Indianapolis, IN
46280-1344, USA

June 15 - Nevada QSO Party, email to: nw7o@anv.net, paper logs to:
Jim Frye, NW7O, 4120 Oakhill Ave, Las Vegas, NV 89121-6319, USA

The following contests are scheduled:

Note that the following abbreviations are used to condense the
contest rules summaries:
SO - Single-Op; M2 - Multiop - 2 Transmitters; MO - Multi-Op; MS -
Multi-Op, Single Transmitter; MM - Multi-Op, Multiple Transmitters;
AB - All Band; SB - Single Band; S/P/C - State/Province/DXCC Entity;
HP - High Power; LP - Low Power; Entity - DXCC Entity

HF CONTESTS

QRP TAC Contest--CW--sponsored by EPA QRP Club from 1800 to 2359Z Jun
7. Frequencies: 80 - 10 meters. Categories: QRP (<5 W), QRPp (<1 W),
Tactical (portable with temporary antennas), Homebrew, Classic
(pre-1985 radios.) Exchange: RST, name and telephone area code (TAC),
DX send area code or prefix. PA stations send X after the area code.
For more information - http://www.n3epa.org/. Logs due Jul 12 to
tac@n3epa.org or EPA QRP Club c/o Ron Polityka, 1155 Robeson St, 2nd
Fl, Reading, PA 19604-2151.

WW South America CW Contest--sponsored by the Confederacao Brasileira
de Radioamadorismo (LABRE) from 0000Z Jun 7 - 1600Z Jun 8.=20
Frequencies: 80 - 10 meters.  Categories: SOAB, SOSB, MOAB.=20
Exchange: RST and continent.  QSO Points: South America entrants: own
country--1 pt, different country--3 pts, diff. continent--10 pts;
non-SA entrants: own country--1 pt, diff. country--3 pts, diff.
cont.--5 pts, SA--10 pts.  Score is QSO points x prefixes (WPX
rules).  For more information - http://www.labre.org.  Logs due 31
Jul to labre@labre.org or LABRE--WWSA Contest Committee, PO Box
0000470359-970, 70359-970 Brasilia DF, Brazil.

ANARTS WW RTTY / Digital Contest--sponsored by Austalian National
Amateur Radio Teleprinter Society (ANARTS) from 0000Z Jun 14 - 2400Z
Jun 15.  Frequencies: 80 - 10 meters.  Categories: SO, MS, and SWL,
SO and SWL only operate 30 hours.  Exchange RST, CQ zone and Time
(UTC).	QSO Points are determined by an exchange table available from
ANARTS.  Score is QSO points x DXCC entities + VK, JA, VE, and W call
districts + continents (counted only once).  For more information --
http://www.users.bigpond.com/ctdavies/Rules%202003.txt.  Logs due Sep
1 to ctdavies@bigpond.com or Contest Manager, VK2BQS, Jim Swan, PO
Box 93, Toongabbie, N.S.W. 2146, Australia

Asia-Pacific Sprint--SSB--sponsored by the Asia-Pacific Sprint
Committee from 1100Z - 1300Z Jun 14. Frequencies: 20 and 40-meters,
NA stations work Asia-Pacific countries only. Categories: SO only,
150 watts max. Exchange: RST and serial number. Score: total QSOs x
WPX prefixes (counted once). For more information --
http://jsfc.org/apsprint/aprule.txt. Logs due 7 days after the
contest to apsprint@kkn.net (no paper logs).

West Virginia QSO Party--CW/SSB--sponsored by the West Virginia State
Amateur Radio Council from 1600Z Jun 14 - 0200Z Jun 15.  Frequencies:
80 - 10 meters, CW--35 kHz from band edge, Phone--35 kHz from General
Class band edge and Novice/Tech 10-meter segment. Categories: SO, MS,
MM and Mobile, all categories may be HP, LP (<100W), QRP (<5W),
Phone, CW, or mixed mode. Work stations once per band/mode and WV
stations from each county (WV mobiles keep separate log for each
county). Exchange: RS(T) and WV county or SPC. QSO Points: Fixed
stations: CW--2 pts, SSB--1 pt; Mobiles: CW--3 pts, SSB--2 pts;
Bonus--100 pts for QSOs with W8WVA once per band/mode, WV mobiles add
100 points per county activated with minimum of 1 QSO. Score: QSO
points x WV counties (+ SPC for WV stations), add bonus to final
score, multipliers count only once. For more information --
http://www.qsl.net/wvarrl/wvqp2003.html.
Logs due Jul 15 to WA8WV@aol.com or Dave Ellis WA8WV, 610 Hillsdale
Drive, Charleston, WV 25302.

Portugal Day Contest--SSB--sponsored by Rede dos Emissores
Portugueses (REP) from 0000Z -- 2400Z Jun 14. Frequencies: 80 -- 10
meters.  Categories: SOAB only.  Exchange: RS + serial number or CT
district abbreviation. QSO Points: different country--3 pts, CT
stations--6 pts.  Score: QSO points x CT districts counted once per
band.  For more information - http://www.rep.pt. Logs due 31 Aug to
REP - Rede dos Emissores Portugueses, Award/Contest Manager, PO Box
2483, 1112 Lisboa Codex, Portugal.

VHF CONTESTS

ARRL June VHF QSO Party -- from 1800Z Jun 14 - 0300Z Jun 16.
Frequencies: all bands 50 MHz and higher. Categories: SO-LP, SO-HP,
SO-Portable, Rover, MO, Limited-MO. Exchange: 4-digit grid square
locator. QSO Points: 50 & 144 MHz -- 1 pt, 222 & 432 MHz -- 2 pts,
906 & 1296 MHz -- 3 pts, 2.3 GHz and higher -- 4 pts.  Total score:
QSO Points x grid squares (counted once per band).  For Rovers: QSO
Points x unique grid squares + grids activated with at least one QSO.
 For more information -
www.arrl.org/contests/rules/2003/june-vhf.html).  Logs due 16 Jul to
JuneVHF@arrl.org (Cabrillo format only) or June VHF, ARRL, 225 Main
St, Newington, CT 06111.

DDFM French Departments 6-Meter Contest -- CW/SSB - sponsored by
Union Francaise de Radioamateurs (REF) from 1600Z Jun 14 -- 1600Z Jun
15.  Frequencies (MHz): 50.200 and higher.  Categories: French and
non-French. Exchange: callsign, RS(T), serial number, and 4-digit
grid locator.  QSO Points: 1 pt/QSO.  Total score: QSO points x
(locators + departments).  For more information - f8op@wanadoo.fr.
Logs due 14 July 2003 to ddfm50@ref-union.org or F6IIT, Patrick
Vermotte, 175 chemin des Meuniers, F-86130 Dissay, France.=20

NEWS & PRESS RELEASES

The line scores for the 2002 November Sweepstakes (CW and Phone) and
the 2002 160-Meter contest are now available online. A scoring error
was discovered in the 10-Meter Log Checking software and was
corrected. This entailed a complete review and revision of the 2002
10-Meter Results for QST and the Web. The Web changes were made and
re-opened to the public. (Thanks, Dan N1ND)

Calling all Old Farts!	Check out the World Wide Young Contesters
Newsletter at
http://www.wwyc.net.  The newsletter is available in PDF format (both
a high-res and low-res version). All comments are welcome to
news@wwyc.net or by a post into the WWYC Forum on
http://www.wwyc.net/forum. (Thanks, Hrle 9A6XX)

Beta testing of Logbook of the World (LoTW) has been underway since
May 15 with over five million contacts added to the LoTW database so
far. To join the beta testing program, which wraps up in mid-July,
visit the Logbook of the World - Getting Started site,
http://www.arrl.org/lotw/getstart.html. Logging software developers
now can get documentation and a Windows DLL library plus complete
source code for the TQSL software at the SourceForge Web site -
http://sourceforge.net/projects/trustedqsl/.  One interesting side
effect of the beta testing is that many have found their addresses in
the FCC data base are not current.  Make sure your FCC address is
correct by visiting the FCC Web site -
http://wireless.fcc.gov/services/amateur/licensing/changingaddress.ht
ml or submit a license modification or renewal through the ARRL VEC
at  http://www.arrl.org/fcc/forms.html.

AEA-Wireless has released a new Vector Impedance Analyzer -
http://www.aea-wireless.com/viabravo.htm. It can measure complex
impedance over a larger impedance range with better accuracy than the
AEA CIA-HF model. The analyzer features new cable test functions and
a spectrum analyzer mode. It also has non-volatile memory to store
measurements.  After the measurements are downloaded, an included
software package allows you to plot the data. and download the data
to a PC. (Thanks, John W1FV)

Those of you that have done any DX contesting will surely recognize
the callsign of Roger Western G3SXW or one of the many variations on
that theme from exotic countries such as ZD9, XT, or FH.  Idiom Press
(http://www.idiompress.com) has just published a book by Roger called
"Up Two -- Adventures of a DX-peditioner".  It tells the story of
each of Roger's numerous DX-peditions, plus some tips on operating
and QSLing.  Roger's wit and humor certainly shine through and you'll
find the book to be a great read while waiting for the next New One
to come on the air.

Scott W4PA (w4pa@yahoo.com) and your editor are once again writing up
the ARRL DX Contest results.  To make the results better and more
interesting, we are looking for two types of helper.  One way to help
is for you to write and tell us about exciting contest events in your
region.  These can be personal stories about your personal contest
effort or you can write about someone you know that really did well,
such as breaking a regional record or keeping a win streak alive.=20
The other way to help is to look over the final scores from your ARRL
division and let us know if there are some hidden gems that we might
not see.  Is there a big club rivalry or maybe a multi-op did really
well this year.  You don't have to be Shakespeare to contribute --
Scott and I will do the hard part.  Please email us if you'd like to
help improve the quality and depth of the contest results writeups.

RESULTS AND RECORDS

The complete list (electronic and paper) of Logs Received for the
2003 ARRL International DX CW and Phone contests are available at -
http://www.arrl.org/contests/claimed/.	If you find an error in your
listing, please contact N1ND at n1nd@arrl.org and have your receipt
number ready. Member's-Only access to the 2002 ARRL Ten-Meter Contest
is now available at -http://www.arrl.org/contests/results/. The PDF
of the QST article for non-members will be posted in about a week.
The PDF of the QST article with line scores will be posted on-line
for the general public in approximately 3-4 weeks. (Thanks, Dan N1ND)

TECHNICAL & TECHNIQUE

A note regarding last issue's comments about identifying -- or not.=20
Chuck K3FT and others questioned whether I was recommending that U.S.
stations could skip identifying themselves. Reviewing the last
editorial, it certainly might be read that way.  My intent was to
discuss identifying from a "DX" location where rules and regulations
are typically much less specific.  Nearly all of the "ID Offenders"
that I have heard on the bands and discussed on the reflectors are DX
stations.  When was the last time a U.S. station had a pileup that
big?  FCC regulations are pretty clear -- U.S. stations have to
identify with their callsigns.	I'll have a bit more to say on the
subject in a later issue.

W9CF has written and made available on his web site a very nice
transmission line calculator at http://fermi.la.asu.edu/w9cf/tran/.
You can use it on any computer that runs JAVA and a browser. This is
a very useful program and quite intuitive to use. It has a number of
transmission lines already built in, or you design your own.  W9CF's
Web calculators (antenna tuner and Yagi modeler) have been mentioned
before in the Rate Sheet.  They're worth a bookmark! (Thanks, Dr.
Megacycle KK6MC/5)

Rog, K9RB reports that a reliable rotator connector is the automotive
flat rubber trailer connectors that come with pigtails.  These can be
soldered, or butt-spliced to the wires after the factory connector
has been cut off. The pigtails are about a foot long and the
connectors come in 4 and 6-pin varieties. For 8 wire rotators, he
uses two of the 4-pin connectors with a male and a female on each end
so there is no way to mis-mate them. They are relatively inexpensive
and available at most department, hardware, and auto parts stores.=20

Jim Tabor, KU5S has an interesting program called GeoAlert Wizard,
which he has just updated. It sits in the system tray on your PC and
grabs solar and geophysical data automatically off the internet.
Check it out at http://www.taborsoft.com/gawiz. (from K7RA's ARRL
Propagation Bulletin)

If you want the absolute straight story on IRC's, steer your browser
to the Universal Postal Union site -
http://www.upu.int/irc/en/index.html#zone_reserve. (Thanks, Tom K1KI)

If you're technically inclined, there's an excellent
article,"Understanding Common Mode Signals" by Jim Sherwin in the
April 17th issue of EDN Magazine -
http://www.e-insite.net/ednmag/index.asp?layout=3Darticle&articleId=3DCA2=

89961&text=3Djim+sherwin.  Common mode signals are those nasty things
our ham radios induce on telephone, speaker, TV coax, and power cords
that cause interference.  The article explains how the signals are
generated and presents a discussion of how to deal with them.

CONVERSATION

WRTC-Style Contesting in the IARU-HF Championship

The response to my sponsorship of an informal "WRTC-Style"
contest-within-a-contest has been largely positive.  For those of you
that missed the initial announcement, I am encouraging two-operator
teams to compete in the IARU-HF Championship multi-single category
using a station setup similar to that of the 2002 WRTC.  I will
provide a registration mechanism and all reporting will be based on
Claimed Scores.  This is an honor system competition designed to keep
the WRTC flame "alive" between official events.  A Web site with the
complete information should be available shortly.

Some teams have already registered; the first was Teemu SM0WKA and
Mikael SM4THN who will be using the callsign SM0W. Jan OK1QM and
OK1NR are the first father-and-son team.  From what I have heard,
there will be quite a number of teams participating.  Jan also
reports that he and Martin, OL5Y organized a special local contest
during CQ-M. All competitors (it was a first year and there were 8
participants) used the same set up - barefoot transceiver and dipole
antennas for 80, 40 and 20-meters on 10-meter high towers. There are
pictures at http://www.sweb.cz/cric2003/ and the complete logs are
available as a single spreadsheet at
http://www.sweb.cz/cric2003/cric2003.zip.

Bruce Horn WA7BNM stepped up and will add the team score reporting
facility to the IARU-HF claimed-score submission Web page at
http://www.hornucopia.com/3830score. Each team that registers will be
able to submit their scores under their team registration callsign.=20
The scores will then be reported as team scores in the multi-single
category along with other claimed scores in the regular submissions
to CQ-Contest and the 3830 mailing list. (For more information about
those lists, browse to http://www.contesting.com and look for the
lists along the left side of the screen.)  Thanks, Bruce!

Gerry Hull W1VE also volunteered to host a real-time, manual score
reporting Web page on his servers.  Each team that registers will
receive a password that will allow them to enter their score during
the contest.  The scores will then be sorted by several criteria.=20
The team just needs to open a browser window to Gerry's Web page and
then enter their line score every so often - or when they're doing
really well. Thanks, Gerry!  This and Bruce's offer are great
examples of volunteerism enhancing the sport.

The subject of real-time score reporting has gotten a fair amount of
air time on the CQ-Contest reflector.  The chief objection is that
having one's current score made public along with a callsign and
operator identity will result in "popularity contests" with friends
and associates of the operators trying the "help" the team.  I must
say that this is an actual problem that has existed in contesting for
a long time.  In the original WRTC held in Seattle, there were
clearly instances of "pass-the-microphone" where friends of the teams
in their home country fed the teams calls even though the teams all
had randomly-distributed calls.

Actually, in any contest, anonymity is pretty much a myth on phone if
you are familiar with the voice of the operator.  Furthermore, the
plans and calls of the operators are almost always fairly well known.
 Club members and friends often look for familiar calls on the air to
give out a few points.	I've done it and so have most other
contesters not making a serious effort.  This is part of the social
cooperation aspect so unique to the sport.

The worst-case scenario here is two closely-matched teams with the
final result skewed towards one team by these "friends and family"
QSOs.  It's quite possible, of course, and has probably already
occurred in WRTC or in other contests -- we're just not aware of it.=20
Others have made the point that if you're watching the scoreboard,
you're not making QSOs.  Unassailably true.

Some might say, "Why?  What's wrong with the way things are now?"=20
Good question.	Current reporting is abysmally slow, but is that
necessarily a bad thing for the on-air competition itself?  Ignore
the public-exposure and call-feeding angles for the moment and ask if
the knowledge of the score of one's peers would affect the actual
competition for better or worse.  It adds a dimension of pressure to
the competitors that is not there now.	To look or not to look?

The real-time reporting of scores is definitely a new element in
radiosport contesting.	It definitely has the potential to cause some
disruption.  It also has the potential to enhance competition and
encourage interest in the sport.  The only way that we will be able
to answer the question is to make a controlled experiment. The
WRTC-style team operations give us the opportunity to make that
experiment and learn a bit about what it means to open up score
reporting.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The Contester's Rate Sheet wishes to acknowledge information from the
following sources:
WA7BNM's Contest Calendar Web page -
http://www.hornucopia.com/contestcal/ ARRL Contest page -
http://www.arrl.org/contests/
SM3CER's Web site - http://www.sk3bg.se/contest/

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
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THE ARRL CONTEST RATE SHEET is published every other Wednesday (26=20
times each year), by the American Radio Relay League--The National=20
Association For Amateur Radio--225 Main St, Newington, CT 06111; tel=20
860-594-0200; fax 860-594-0259. Editor: Ward Silver, N0AX.

The ARRL Contest Rate Sheet offers a useful source of timely=20
information for both the active and casual contester. The Rate Sheet=20
includes information about events during the following two-week period,=20
time-sensitive news items, upcoming deadlines, and other news of=20
interest to contesters.

For permission to quote or reprint material from the ARRL Contest Rate=20
Sheet, send a request including the issue date, a description of the=20
material requested, and a description of where you intend to use the=20
reprinted material to the ARRL Editorial & Production Department:=20
permission@arrl.org.=20

Editorial questions or comments: Ward Silver, N0AX, rate-sheet@arrl.org
Delivery problems (ARRL member direct delivery only!):=20
rate-sheet-dlvy@arrl.org

The ARRL Contest Rate Sheet is available to ARRL members via email free=20
of charge directly from ARRL HQ. To subscribe, unsubscribe or change=20
your address for e-mail delivery:

ARRL members first must register on the Members Only Web Site,=20
http://www.arrl.org/members/. You'll have an opportunity during=20
registration to sign up for e-mail delivery of the ARRL Contest Rate=20
Sheet, W1AW bulletins, and other material. ARRL members may subscribe=20
to the ARRL Contest Rate Sheet by going to the Member Data Page at:=20
http://www.arrl.org/members-only/memdata.html?modify=3D1 Note that you=20
must be logged in to the site to access this page. Scroll down to the=20
section "Which of the following would you like to receive automatically=20
via email from ARRL?" Check the box for "ARRL Contest Rate Sheet=20
(biweekly contest newsletter)" and you're all set. Past issues of the=20
ARRL Contest Rate Sheet are available at=20
http://www.arrl.org/rate-sheet/. Issues are posted to this page after=20
publication.
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
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=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun  5 03:35:24 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 04 Jun 2003 21:35:24 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/4/2003 9:35:23 PM
Message-ID: <200306050235.VAA10080@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 050234
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
935 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2003

QUICK UPDATE TO FCST TO REMOVE WORDING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
THAT HAVE DIED OFF DUE TO SUNSET.  TWEAKED TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER IN 
IOWA CITY GROUP FOR CLEARER SKIES...BUT OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES TO 
FCST.  PATCHY FOG WORDING STILL ON TRACK...WITH 8PM DEWPOINT 
DEPRESSIONS RANGING FROM 14 TO MORE THAN 20 IN THE NORTHEAST.  
PONTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG QUITE LOW...BUT VISIBILITIES OF 3-5 MILES 
REASONABLE FOR BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.  SHOULD BURN OFF 
QUICKLY WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES.  

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

LE







From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun  5 10:19:20 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Thu, 05 Jun 2003 04:19:20 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/5/2003 4:19:19 AM
Message-ID: <200306050919.EAA06417@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 050914
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
414 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

FUN TIMES ARE AHEAD. SURFACE RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TODAY AND THIS
EVENING BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WX. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
QUITE STEEP SO SHOULD SEE DIURNAL CU FIRING BY LATE MORNING. LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NGM BETTER MODEL TO FOLLOW. IT WAS THE ONLY
ONE TO CORRECTLY HANDLE SEVERE MCS IN THE PANHANDLE AND ITS
SOLUTION OF BRINGING A WAVE/VORT LOBE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY LOOKS CORRECT. UKMET SUGGESTS THIS AS WELL WITH ECMWF/AVN
INDICATING A STRONG VORT LOBE TO MOVE THROUGH. WIDESPREAD PRECIP
SHOULD END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW AND WEAK VORT MAXES SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED SHRA GOING FRIDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING IN THE DAKOTAS RIGHT NOW.

SATURDAY TO BE THE ONLY QUIET DAY OF THE WEEKEND. SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF CU AROUND WITH WEAK VORT MAXES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY IS QUITE INTERESTING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A GOOD
SOAKING WITH PRECIP LINGERING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HAVE GONE WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR MAXES PERIOD 1
AND DEFINITELY WENT WITH THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR PERIOD 3. SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FWC/MAV FOR TONIGHT.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED. TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOKS
REAL INTERESTING WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS LIKELY PER ECMWF/UKMET. NEW
MRF (SURPRISE...SURPRISE) HAS DONE A MAJOR FLIP AND NOW IS
FORECASTING HEAVY RAIN. AS RESULT HAVE ISSUED AND ESF REGARDING
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun  5 11:02:21 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Thu, 05 Jun 2003 05:02:21 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/5/2003 5:02:21 AM
Message-ID: <200306051002.FAA14423@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 051000
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-061000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION BRINGING
A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF WIND SHEAR.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A SECOND STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WIDESPREAD RAINS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE THIRD STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION
AROUND MID WEEK. CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ON TOP OF SOILS THAT WILL
BE NEARLY SATURATED.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD LISTEN TO LATER FORECASTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
BECOME BETTER DEFINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IF
HEAVY RAINS DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...RAINFALL REPORTS AND
RIVER READINGS FROM SPOTTERS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

SF






From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun  5 22:55:59 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Thu, 05 Jun 2003 16:55:59 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/5/2003 4:55:58 PM
Message-ID: <200306052155.QAA14213@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 052140
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
440 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE SURFACE THAT AFFECTED OUR
WEATHER FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH IS SHARPENING UP ACROSS THE PLAINS.  AT 500MB
A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...WITH TWO CLOSED LOWS...ONE OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA AND ONE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...HEADING OUR WAY.

THE MODELS AGREE ON THE PLAINS TROUGH WORKING INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...SLOWLY AS IT DOES SO.  A LEADING VORT MAX WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AND
WEST...WITH STRONG VV'S AND 300MB DIVERGENCE FROM 12Z TO 18Z...
EARLIER FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST.  LESS VV'S AND 300MB DIVERGENCE IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG PVA.  CLOUD COVER AND COOLER SURFACE
TEMPS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE ASPECT.

VORT AND ASSOCIATED POS OMEGAS TO PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACRS THE CWA UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...WANING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION AND
ARRIVAL OF NVA. ETA AND GFS ARE THEN DRY ON SAT...EVEN THOUGH THEY
PROPAGATE ANOTHER VORT PIECE INTO THE AREA AND INTO AN INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. UKMET SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF THE VORT...
BUT STILL BLEEDS CONVECTION INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL SPURN THE ETA AND GFS AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR A
SAT AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM(WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE)...WITH ALL
THE ABOVE FACTORS COMING TOGETHER. STILL WITH SOME INSOLATION BETWEEN
THE CLOUDS AND PROJECTED RATHER DEEP MIXING IN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...SAT AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

NEXT LARGE SYSTEM/UPPER VORT TO THEN MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT SAT...WITH LATE NIGHT ARRIVAL STILL LOOKING ON TARGET...
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE OF FORCING AND SATURATION
PARAMETERS.

.LONGER RANGE(SUN-THU)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES/PHASING ISSUES REGARDING THE HANDLING OF SUNDAYS
SIGNIFICANT CUT-OFF UPPER SYSTEM. LATEST ECMWF IS STILL THE FURTHEST
SOUTH WITH BOTH THE UPPER AND SFC SYSTEMS(ALMOST STACKED)AND ROLLS
THE SFC FEATURE ACRS FAR NORTHERN MO. THIS WOULD BRING HEAVY DEF ZONE
RAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE FURTHER NORTH PLACEMENT UKMET AND
MRF(SFC LOWS OVER NORTHERN IA AND MOVEMENT INTO SOUTHWEST WI)...
WOULD BRING MORE OF A CONVECTIVE LINE AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT.
CURRENT ZONE WORDING SIDES WITH THE EURO...AND HAVE NO REASON TO
ALTER IT AT THIS POINT. WILL EAGERLY AWAIT FURTHER RUNS FOR HOPEFUL
CONSENSUS. STILL FEEL CUT-OFF UPPER SYSTEM WILL LINGER ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH WRAP AROUND VORTS INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME MORE PROGRESSIVE MODELS(UKMET-XGFS) HAVE
TEMPORARY RIDGING AND A MAINLY DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK. WILL SIDE
WITH SLOWER EURO...WHICH LLVL THERMAL PARAMETERS AND CLOUD COVER
SUGGEST UNDERCUTTING LATEST MEX HIGHS. MEX HAS TRENDED COOLER THIS
RUN WITH MON HIGHS AS WELL. DEPENDS ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF MAIN
LLVL WEST-TO-EAST THERMAL GRADIENT LAYOUT IN STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN...BUT AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL MCS
SET UP DEVELOPING FOR MID NEXT WEEK. EURO AND MRF OMINOUS FOR HEAVY
RAINS FOR THE LOCAL AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE LATEST XGFS
HINTING AT FURTHER NORTH BAROCLINIC PLACEMENT.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA/12





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun  6 00:53:45 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Thu, 5 Jun 2003 18:53:45 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLD023 DX news
Message-ID: <20030605202943.20135.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB DX @ ARL $ARLD023
ARLD023 DX news

ZCZC AE23
QST de W1AW =20
DX Bulletin 23  ARLD023
>From ARRL Headquarters =20
Newington CT  June 5, 2003
To all radio amateurs  =20

SB DX ARL ARLD023
ARLD023 DX news

This week's bulletin was made possible with information provided by
RW0MM, the OPDX Bulletin, The Daily DX, QRZ DX, 425DXnews, DXNL,
WA7BNM and Contest Corral from QST.  Thanks to all.

CYPRUS, 5B.  Alan, G3PMR is active as 5B4AHJ until June 22.  QSL to
home call.

SENEGAL, 6W.  Members of the Senegal Radio Association, ARAS, will
be QRV as 6V1A from Goree Island, IOTA AF-045, using SSB on all HF
bands from Jun 7 to 9.  QSL via 6W6JX.
    =20
WEST MALAYSIA, 9M2.  Johnny, G3LIV is QRV as 9M2/G3LIV from Langkawi
Island, IOTA AS-058, until June 9.  He is using mainly CW with some
PSK31.  QSL to home call.

TAIWAN, BV.  Paul, BV4FH and a few members of the BV DX Group are
QRV as BV9L from Liu-Chiu Yu, IOTA AS-155, until June 8.  Activity
is on 40 to 10 meters using CW and SSB.  QSL via BV4YB.

FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY, DL.  Members of the Erding Radio Club
will be QRV as DA0ED/p during the IARU Field Day contest.  QSL via
the bureau.

FRANCE, F.  Eight French amateurs are QRV as F8KOM from Brehat
Island, IOTA EU-074, until June 9.  QSL via F5IL.

ISLE OF MAN, GD.  Adrian, M3LCR is active as MD3LCR/p.  He is using
mainly RTTY on 80 to 15 meters, with some SSB.  QSL to home call.

ITALY, I.  Paolo, IV3DSH, Stefano, IV3LZQ, Giovanni, IV3ODE, Paolo,
IV3PUT, Pietro, IV3RUA and Maria Pia, IV3ZLT will be active as
homecalls/1 from Anfora Island, IOTA EU-130, on June 7 and 8.  They
will be QRV using all modes on 160 to 6 meters and plan to be an
entry in the IARU Field Day contest.  QSL via bureau.

JAPAN, JA.  Kaoru, JA3MCA, Aru, JA0KNM, Jun, JJ1EQW and Kai, JE3NJZ
are active as homecalls/JR6 from Hateruma Island, IOTA AS-024, until
June 9.  Activity is on 40 to 2 meters using CW and SSB.  QSL to
home calls.

GUAM, KH2.  JA6EGL and JA6KYU are QRV as KH2M and NH7IG/KH2,
respectively, until June 7.  Activity is on 30, 20 and 15 meters
using CW and SSB.  QSL to home calls.

DENMARK, OZ.  Lars, OZ1HPS and Karl, LA8DW are QRV as OZ4DI from
Fano Island, IOTA EU-125, until June 7.  QSL via OZ1HPS.  Meanwhile,
Siggi, OZ/DL1AZZ will also visit here from June 7 to 14.  He will
use CW and SSB on all HF bands.  QSL to home call.

GREECE, SV.  Emil, SV8/DJ4PI/p is QRV from Thassos Island, IOTA
EU-174, until June 18.  QSL to home call.

EUROPEAN RUSSIA, UA.  Nick, RA1QQ and Andy, RA3NN are QRV as
UE1RRC/1 from an island in the IOTA EU-119 group until June 10.
They might also be QRV for one day from Sosnovets Island, IOTA
EU-161, as RA1QQ/1 and RA3NN/1, respectively.  QSL via operators'
instructions.  Meanwhile, Oleg, UA6LP is active as UA6LP/6 from
Ullu-Tau, until June 13.  This includes an entry in the IARU Field
Day contest as UA6LP/6/p.  QSL to home call.

ASIATIC RUSSIA, UA0.  RK0LWW team members Oleg, RA0LSO, John, RW0MM,
Vitaly, RU0LAX, Yuri, UA0LMO, Paul, UA0LSK and Meela, UA0LHT will be
QRV from Verkhovskogo Island, IOTA AS-066, from June 7 to 9.  This
includes participation in the IARU Field Day contest.  They plan on
activating new lighthouses on the island as well.  QSL via
operator's instructions.

UKRAINE, UR.  Members of the Rivne DX Club are QRV with special
event callsign EN720K until July 15 to celebrate the 720th
Anniversary of Rivne City.  QSL via IK1GPG.

LAOS, XW.  Champ, E21EIC is QRV as XW1IC until June 27.  Activity is
on 160 to 10 meters using CW, SSB and RTTY.  QSL to home call.

THIS WEEKEND ON THE RADIO.  The QRP TAC CW Contest, VK/ZL
Trans-Tasman CW Contest, IARU Region 1 CW Field Day and the WW South
American CW Contest are all scheduled for this weekend.  Please see
June QST, page 95 and the ARRL and WA7BNM contest websites for
details.
NNNN
/EX



From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun  6 10:21:19 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Fri, 06 Jun 2003 04:21:19 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/6/2003 4:21:19 AM
Message-ID: <200306060921.EAA28521@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 060913
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
413 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2003

ETA NOT DEPICTING REALITY AT 3...6...OR 9 HOURS INTO FORECAST CYCLE
AND HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN FAVOR OF BETTER CPU USAGE MODELS. UKMET
NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM 12Z OR YESTERDAYS 00Z RUNS AND THEREFORE
USING IT WITH INPUT FROM AVN/RUC/NGM. UKMET/NGM SHOW STRONG
FORCING TO MOVE ACROSS CWFA DURING THE DAY BRINGING A SOAKING RAIN
TO THE AREA. H85 TEMPS ON UKMET DO NOT BUDGE FROM 06/12Z TO 07/12Z
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S TODAY...ALA MAV NUMBERS. PRECIP
SHOULD CUT OFF IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD AROUND MID AFTERNOON.  TONIGHT
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHRA AS UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ALA
TONIGHT AND LAST NIGHT IN THE PLAINS.

SATURDAY TO BE THE ONLY NICE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB NICELY TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW CLIMO BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. UKMET SOLUTION A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
LOOKS SIMILAR TO SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST MONDAY. H5 LOW TO
MOVE ACROSS CWFA SHOULD SUPPRESS TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH A NEAR
ALL DAY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DIDN/T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED. HOWEVER A FUN TIME IS AHEAD.
UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY PRONOUNCED EAST WEST BOUNDARY/FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA OR NORTHERN MISSOURI. AREA IS PRIMED TO BE IN
MCS ALLEY AROUND MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH BOTH SYSTEMS ON TOP OF WET
SOILS...SO FLOODING IS EXPECTED BY LATE NEXT WEEK ON THE SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun  6 11:02:52 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Fri, 06 Jun 2003 05:02:52 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/6/2003 5:02:52 AM
Message-ID: <200306061002.FAA05924@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 061000
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-071000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION BRINGING
A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A
LACK OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION AROUND MID
WEEK. CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN ON TOP OF SOILS THAT WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED.

THE THIRD STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK. CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON TOP OF SATURATED SOILS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD LISTEN TO LATER FORECASTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
BECOME BETTER DEFINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HOWEVER ANY HAIL REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT WILL BE
APPRECIATED TODAY. IF HEAVY RAINS DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...
RAINFALL REPORTS AND RIVER READINGS FROM SPOTTERS WILL BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED NEXT WEEK.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

SF






From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun  6 19:35:38 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Fri, 06 Jun 2003 13:35:38 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/6/2003 1:35:38 PM
Message-ID: <200306061836.NAA19824@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 061833 AAA
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-071000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
133 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM BROUGHT WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL OF
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80...THIS MORNING.

THIS SAME SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.  LOW FREEZING LEVELS...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH...AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  THE GREATEST RISK FOR THESE STRONGER STORMS IS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION BRINGING
A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A
LACK OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION AROUND MID
WEEK. CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN ON TOP OF SOILS THAT WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED.

THE THIRD STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK. CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
POSSIBLE.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD LISTEN TO LATER FORECASTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
BECOME BETTER DEFINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
HAIL AND WIND REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT WILL BE
APPRECIATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  OTHERWISE...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  IF HEAVY
RAINS DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...RAINFALL REPORTS AND RIVER
READINGS FROM SPOTTERS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED DURING THE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

LE/SF





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun  6 22:33:35 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Fri, 06 Jun 2003 16:33:35 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/6/2003 4:33:34 PM
Message-ID: <200306062133.QAA12822@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 062117
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
400 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2003

UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER NORTHWEST IA...WITH LEAD VORTIMUS MAXIMUS NEAR STORM
LAKE. COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
NORTH/EAST SECTIONS WHILE COLD FRONT FAST ON IT/S HEELS ENTERING WESTERN
ZONES ATTIM. BAND OF LOW CIGS/STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH QUAD CITIES WHILE CONVECTIVE LINE WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80.
NO REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL OR HIGH WINDS OF LATE. CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT
IS QUICKLY CATCHING UP TO STRATIFORM RAIN BAND. STILL...CAN/T RULE OUT 
ISOLATED HAIL REPORT OF PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE AND FEW WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH 
OR SO. KCRG RECENTLY REPORTED A 48 MPH WIND GUST IN DOWNTOWN CEDAR RAPIDS.

NEXT UPPER LOW IN EASTERN MT LOOKS TO REINFORCE TROUGHING OVER THE 
MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH MAIN FOCUS ON PCPN
CHANCES AND TEMPS. 
 
DUMBELL OR PSEUDO FUJIWARA EFFECT PROGGED BY MODELS...WITH INITIAL 
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST IA TO WEAKEN AND LIFT TOWARD GREAT
LAKES WHILE SECOND UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN IN BEHIND REINFORCING TROUGHINESS
IN THE NATION/S MIDSECTION. WEAK COLD FRONT OR WIND SHIFT TO 
SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS IT CATCHES UP WITH STRATIFORM RAIN BAND. HAVE PLACED
HIGHEST POPS UNTIL MID EVENING NORTH OF I-80 AND EAST OF I-380...WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. OTHER ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN IA WITH
UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION.
CLOUDS THEN TO GIVE WAY TO SOME CLEARING AND WITH WET GROUND AND LIGHT WIND
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG. 

ON SATURDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES EARLY...BUT THEN SHIFTS
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST MCV FROM CONVECTION IN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED...SO ANTICIPATE
ISOLD/SCT CELLS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON MUCH LIKE WE SEE
IN WESTERN IA ATTIM...WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTH/WEST CLOSER TO 
WEAKENING CIRCULATION AND INCOMING MCV.

PCPN EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH
MAIN UPPER LOW. THINK SIMILAR SITUATION TO THIS MORNING WITH LARGE 
STRATIFORM RAIN AREA WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. LOOKS LIKE A BREAK IN 
THE RAIN MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN PUT IN A CHC OF SHOWERS SUN AFTERNOON WITH
COLD POOL AND UPPER LOW IN VICINITY. 

ON MON...GFS INDICATES VORT MAX DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION AND GENERATES 
LIGHT QPF. BEING THAT THE GFS IS ODD MODEL OUT...LEFT OUT MENTION 
OF PCPN ATTIM. 

EXTENDED (TUE-FRI)...NEXT FRONT PROGGED LATE TUE. KEPT MINS AOA MEX GUIDANCE
TUE MORNING WITH SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE. MAXES TUE WILL BE 
TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF FRONT/CLOUDS/PCPN. NEXT CONCERN 
IS WITH FRONTAL POSITIONING. MODELS OFFERING A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ON HOW 
FAR SOUTH FRONT ENDS UP...WHICH WILL IMPACT LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE 
COMPLEXES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WON/T STRAY MUCH FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

M^2







From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun  7 02:38:03 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Fri, 6 Jun 2003 20:38:03 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA
Message-ID: <20030606141907.3200.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP23
QST de W1AW =20
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23  ARLP023
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 6, 2003
To all radio amateurs=20

SB PROP ARL ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

More crazy space weather this week. Average daily sunspot numbers
and solar flux were both down, and the average daily A index was up.
We've expressed a lot of angst about the solar wind, solar flares,
stormy conditions and resulting absorption. However, VHF operators
are loving it.

The average daily planetary A index compared to the previous week
was up over 50% to 37.1. The stormiest day was Thursday, May 29 with
a planetary A index of 89. Late in the day the planetary K index was
8, which is exceptional.

This week we received a number of comments and reports from fans of
VHF propagation. Bob Sluder, N0IS noted the displeasure expressed in
this bulletin over high A and K index numbers. He wrote, "It is very
obvious that you are not a VHF operator or you would LIKE those
numbers, because you know something is going to happen on VHF. Boy,
did it happen last week. 6-meters open around the clock and the
Aurora was magnificent (radio wise). Had a CW schedule with a friend
on 80-meters last Thursday evening and someone had thrown the big
low band switch to off, while the VHF one was set on GO."

Jon Jones, N0JK of Kansas wrote that there was a big aurora display
associated with coronal mass ejections on May 30. Following the
break up of the display, there was an all night E-skip opening on
6-meters from 0300-1800z. He noted it was unusual to hear YV1DIG
working California on 6-meters around 0600z.

Al Olcott, K7ICW wrote, "The CME events and related phenomena
enhanced VHF on Thursday 29 May briefly here in Las Vegas. We had a
rare aurora event covering a span of about 12 minutes. I had
contacts with 3 stations, KI7BP (DN13) Idaho, KB7WW (CN85) Oregon
and K7OFT (CN87) in Washington in a span of 2 minutes on 6-meters at
2255-2257z on SSB. Beam headings here were 45 degrees azimuth."

He continues, "At 2302z, an unidentified CW signal on 144.200 MHz
showed up for about 2 minutes in a DN grid, but no I.D. on the weak
signal.  Signals from N7IJ (DN44) in Idaho persisted on 6-meters
throughout our short opening here, but he didn't hear me. A
simultaneous E-skip opening during this period on 2-meters from the
Pacific Northwest states to California produced many interstate
contacts, but it is unknown which were aurora and which were E-skip.

"Reports from stations in Maine said that the aurora activity was
too far south for them for optimum participation. K0AWU (EN37) in
Minnesota reported to me that he worked 5 stations on 222 MHz via
the aurora at his northerly location. N0LL (EM09) in Kansas said he
worked a 222 E skip contact in grid EM83 during the aurora, a rare
event in itself!"

Ken Louks, WA8REI wrote about an aurora experience on HF from the
week before. "I worked the CQ WW WPX CW contest last weekend from a
QTH 720 feet above Lake Superior in Upper Michigan. The aurora both
Friday night (May 23) and Saturday night (May 24) was awesome!
Shades of green, blue, deep purple....some almost straight overhead,
and some way down at the horizon (to the north) of Lake Superior,
and even reflecting into the lake."

He continues, "I ran QRP (5 watts from a Yaesu FT-817), and even in
the bad conditions worked Japan, New Zealand and the Canary Islands.
The aurora seemed to reflect my signal south. I worked many South
America stations, but although I had a clear shot to Europe, I heard
virtually nothing from Europe until Sunday afternoon."

Note that Ken had propagation to the south, but not to the north
toward Europe. On HF his signals couldn't make it through a
near-polar path because of the stormy geomagnetic conditions, which
worsen toward the poles. Many people have thought that during
geomagnetic storms, north-south trans-equatorial propagation is
enhanced, but in reality, it only seems that way because this may be
the only remaining path that still works.

Chip Margelli, K7JA wrote in a May 30 email, "2-meters opened up
between southern California and Oregon/Washington/BC last night,
which obviously is unusual this far from the auroral zone, and
6-meters was going to some degree all night. Now, if we can just get
all this storminess to subside on the 27-day rotation, FD should be
in good shape! That big spot group is facing more away now, so that
should help."

The month of May is over, so let's look at the daily average solar
flux and sunspot numbers to spot any trends. The monthly averages of
daily solar flux numbers for January through May 2003 were 144,
124.5, 133.5, 126.8 and 116.6. Daily average sunspot numbers for the
same five months were 150, 87.9, 119.7, 114.3 and 89.6. To me the
trend appears downward.

What about conditions in the near future? It still looks stormy, so
have fun on 6-meters. We should enter a new solar wind stream over
this weekend, June 7 and 8. The predicted planetary A index for June
6-12 is 15, 20, 30, 30, 25, 20 and 15. Solar flux forecast for the
same days is 115, 118, 120, 120, 122, and 124. The summer solstice
is this month. As we move toward the longest day of the year, expect
daytime MUF to continue to decline. While 15-meters should decline
during the daytime, 20-meters should be good from North America
toward the Pacific late into the evening.

Sunspot numbers for May 29 through June 4 were 98, 62, 57, 66, 61,
54, and 74, with a mean of 67.4. 10.7 cm flux was 137.8, 117.2,
113.1, 112.3, 121.4, 114.5, and 105.6, with a mean of 117.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 89, 49, 17, 19, 39, 26, and 21,
with a mean of 37.1.
NNNN
/EX


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun  7 02:38:11 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Fri, 6 Jun 2003 20:38:11 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLK044 Keplerian data
Message-ID: <20030606210616.7183.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB KEP @ ARL $ARLK044
ARLK044 Keplerian data

ZCZC SK44
QST de W1AW =20
Keplerian Bulletin 44  ARLK044
>From ARRL Headquarters
Newington, CT  June 6, 2003
To all radio amateurs=20

SB KEP ARL ARLK044
ARLK044 Keplerian data

Thanks to Con, W5BWF, for the following Keplerian data. =20

Decode 2-line elsets with the following key:
1 AAAAAU 00  0  0 BBBBB.BBBBBBBB  .CCCCCCCC  00000-0  00000-0 0  DDDZ
2 AAAAA EEE.EEEE FFF.FFFF GGGGGGG HHH.HHHH III.IIII JJ.JJJJJJJJKKKKKZ
KEY: A-CATALOGNUM B-EPOCHTIME C-DECAY D-ELSETNUM E-INCLINATION F-RAAN
G-ECCENTRICITY H-ARGPERIGEE I-MNANOM J-MNMOTION K-ORBITNUM Z-CHECKSUM

AO-07
1 07530U 74089B   03155.67480413 -.00000029 +00000-0 +10000-3 0 01987
2 07530 101.7420 202.3833 0011875 234.4009 125.5955 12.53565495306485
AO-10
1 14129U 83058B   03155.29312008 +.00000025 +00000-0 +10000-3 0 09418
2 14129 026.1823 147.1797 5989522 357.5508 000.3957 02.05868750122246
UO-11
1 14781U 84021B   03156.22757786  .00000663  00000-0  98717-4 0  1662
2 14781  98.1332 131.1118 0008358 223.2224 136.8333 14.78280603 31994
UO-14
1 20437U 90005B   03156.73914747  .00000076  00000-0  44329-4 0  2483
2 20437  98.2549 195.1352 0009781 242.3140 117.7050 14.31272135697824
AO-16
1 20439U 90005D   03156.66631030  .00000173  00000-0  80662-4 0  9146
2 20439  98.2973 207.3619 0010089 249.5100 110.4987 14.31513652697851
FO-20
1 20480U 90013C   03157.44407171 -.00000048  00000-0 -43283-4 0  4972
2 20480  99.0651 100.0098 0540694 119.5331 246.0794 12.83332608624353
UO-22
1 21575U 91050B   03156.85270791  .00000208  00000-0  80273-4 0  8172
2 21575  98.1490 143.6583 0007629 160.7896 199.3582 14.39224489623716
AO-27
1 22825U 93061C   03156.81486026  .00000108  00000-0  58849-4 0  5733
2 22825  98.2613 180.9880 0007591 307.6586  52.3907 14.28979380505198
IO-26
1 22826U 93061D   03155.56811112  .00000163  00000-0  80221-4 0  3629
2 22826  98.2627 180.9657 0008365 310.4963  49.5482 14.29206026505060
RS-15
1 23439U 94085A   03153.68409335 -.00000053  00000-0 -31289-3 0  7047
2 23439  64.8148 233.1171 0145732  94.7763 266.9708 11.27548119347337
FO-29
1 24278U 96046B   03156.85128414  .00000013  00000-0  52332-4 0  5940
2 24278  98.5559 293.5969 0350404 298.6037  58.0274 13.52880765335811
ISS
1 25544U 98067A   03157.28555016  .00010876  00000-0  14190-3 0   865
2 25544  51.6333  75.0196 0006535 218.9440 281.2400 15.59249224259307
SO-41
1 26545U 00057A   03156.91300722  .00000358  00000-0  66807-4 0  4771
2 26545  64.5599  61.9367 0043426 221.4087 138.3704 14.79223110145092
MO-46
1 26548U 00057D   03156.83432703  .00000611  00000-0  95255-4 0  4793
2 26548  64.5593  53.8539 0036670 222.6284 137.1922 14.81584233145251
AO-40
1 26609U 00072B   03152.63466107 -.00000225  00000-0  10000-3 0  3354
2 26609   8.8604  46.0294 7960722 180.2908 177.6227  1.25597806 11880
NO-44
1 26931U 01043C   03156.80875070 -.00000037  00000-0  17847-4 0  4918
2 26931  67.0472 339.5220 0006556 275.8595  84.1758 14.29169958 87671
SO-50
1 27607U 02058C   03156.24527320  .00000404  00000-0  88360-4 0  1424
2 27607  64.5510 234.4475 0037842  60.7606 299.7259 14.70122664 24487

Keplerian bulletins are transmitted twice weekly from W1AW. =20
The next scheduled transmission of these data will be Tuesday,=20
June 10, 2003, at 2230z on Baudot and AMTOR.
NNNN
/EX



From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun  7 02:38:14 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Fri, 6 Jun 2003 20:38:14 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] The ARRL Letter, Vol 22, No 23
Message-ID: <20030607001029.17994.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

***************
The ARRL Letter
Vol. 22, No. 23
June 6, 2003
***************

IN THIS EDITION:

* +New 60-meter band to debut July 3
* +President Haynie to testify on Spectrum bill
* +League, Department of Homeland Security to cooperate
* +40-meter harmonization tops ham radio concerns at WRC-03
* +Hamvention attendance dips again
* +Kid's Day II is June 21
* +"Mr Hamvention" Frank Schwab, W8OK, SK
*  Solar Update
*  IN BRIEF:
     This weekend on the radio
     ARRL Certification and Continuing Education course registration
     ARRL Emergency Communications course registration
     ARRL to sponsor emergency communications course seminar in Oregon
     FCC corrects comment, reply comment dates in BPL proceeding
     NorCal, NJQRP merge to form American QRP Club
     Vote on QST Cover Plaque award
     Corrections
     Clarification

+Available on ARRL Audio News

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

=3D=3D>NEW 60-METER BAND TO BECOME AVAILABLE JULY 3!

The new five-channel 60-meter amateur allocation becomes available to US
Amateur Radio operators at midnight (12:00 AM) local time on July 3. The
local time designation means that amateurs in the US territory of Guam
likely will be the first to get a crack at the new band.

The new band will be a secondary allocation--federal government users =
are
primary--and the first on which the only permitted mode will be
upper-sideband (USB) phone (emission type 2K8J3E). The FCC last month
announced it would grant hams access to five discrete 2.8-kHz-wide
channels instead of the 150 kHz-wide band ARRL had requested and the FCC
initially proposed. The League remains optimistic, however, that Amateur
Radio eventually may be able to enjoy a band segment with multiple mode
privileges at 60 meters. ARRL CEO David Sumner, K1ZZ, has said that in =
the
meantime hams will have to be on their best behavior when taking =
advantage
of the limited channelized allocation, open to General and higher class
licensees.

The FCC has granted amateurs center-channel frequencies of 5332, 5348,
5368, 5373 and 5405 kHz--the last channel common to the amateur
experimental operation under way in the United Kingdom
<http://www.rsgb-hfc.org.uk/5mhz.htm>. To be "on channel," users of 60
meters should set their transmitted carrier frequency 1.5 kHz lower than
the channel-center frequency. In terms of day-to-day operation, the new
band is expected to resemble the sort of channel sharing typical on =
local
repeaters.

ARRL Laboratory Manager Ed Hare, W1RFI, says hams need to be very =
careful
if they're considering modifying their current transceiver or =
transmitter
for 5 MHz. The ARRL advises that members check with the appropriate
equipment manufacturers regarding specific modification information. =
Some
modifications not only may void the warranty but could affect or alter a
transmitter's operation in unpredictable ways.

"Hams need to be sure that any modifications put them right on the =
desired
channel," Hare said. "Most hams are used to just having to think about
band edges, so on other bands, if a mod were a bit 'off,' all operators
would need to ensure is that they are not transmitting outside the =
band."

Hare recommended that on 5 MHz amateurs remain within "a few tens of
Hertz" of suppressed-carrier accuracy. He also pointed out that hams =
have
a mandate not to have any of their signal occupy spectrum outside the
assigned 2.8 kHz channels.

Noting that high-frequency audio response can vary considerably from =
radio
to radio, Hare has suggested restricting occupied channel audio =
bandwidth
to 2600 Hz, rolling off below 200 Hz on the low end and above 2800 Hz on
the high end.

Last-minute opposition to the granting of a band segment at 5 MHz came
last year from the National Telecommunications and Information
Administration (NTIA), which cited the ongoing spectrum requirements of
federal government licensees having homeland security responsibilities.
The NTIA administers spectrum allocated to the federal government. A
compromise between the FCC and the NTIA resulted in the limited,
channelized allocation.

The NTIA selected the channels the FCC authorized to minimize the
possibility of interference to federal government users, and it dictated
the use of USB so that federal government users--who also use only
USB--could readily identify amateur stations if necessary.

The FCC has set maximum power at 50 W ERP and said it would consider a
typical half-wave dipole to exhibit no gain.

=3D=3D>PRESIDENT HAYNIE TO TESTIFY FOR AMATEUR RADIO SPECTRUM PROTECTION =
ACT

ARRL President Jim Haynie, W5JBP, will testify June 11 before the House
Subcommittee on Telecommunications and the Internet. Haynie will speak =
on
behalf of the Spectrum Protection Act 2003, HR 713, at the request of =
the
bill's sponsor, Rep Michael Bilirakis (R-FL). The measure would require
the FCC to provide "equivalent replacement spectrum" to Amateur Radio in
the event the Commission reallocates amateur spectrum.

"Amateur Radio has been in the forefront of technological innovation =
since
the advent of wireless," Haynie said this week. "It's in the best
interests of our nation that ham radio has spectrum to operate. At some
point in time, if we continue to lose spectrum, where is the spectrum
going to come from to enable continued experimentation and innovation? =
Or
for emergency communications?"

Haynie this week received his formal invitation to appear before the
subcommittee. He'll get about 10 minutes to address the lawmakers. The =
11
AM hearing at which Haynie will testify--"The Spectrum Needs of Our
Nation's First Responders"--will convene to address public safety =
spectrum
needs. Subcommittee Chairman Fred Upton (R-MI) agreed earlier this year
with a request from Bilirakis to include an opportunity for a member of
the Amateur Radio community to testify. Upton also told Bilirakis that =
he
shares his interest in protecting Amateur Radio. The panel is a
subcommittee of the House Energy and Commerce Committee chaired by Rep
Billy Tauzin (R-LA).

Haynie says he's looking forward to the opportunity to state the =
League's
case. Upton's willingness to hear testimony on the bill is considered
critical to enhancing the measure's credibility, and it marks a major =
step
toward getting HR 713 through Congress this year.

The Senate version of the Amateur Radio Spectrum Protection Act, S
537--introduced by Michael Crapo (R-ID)--got a boost earlier this year
when Senate Communications Subcommittee Chairman Conrad Burns =
(R-MT)--the
expected architect of the Senate's spectrum management =
legislation--signed
on as a cosponsor. Burns' support suggests that the measure now has his
attention and could convince others to follow suit, although that hasn't
happened yet.

The Spectrum Protection Act would amend the Communications Act to =
require
the FCC to provide "equivalent replacement spectrum" to Amateur Radio =
and
the Amateur-Satellite Service in the event of a reallocation of primary
amateur allocations, any reduction in secondary amateur allocations, or
"additional allocations within such bands" that would substantially =
reduce
their utility to amateurs. The bills point out Amateur Radio's volunteer
role in providing emergency communication during disasters and
emergencies.

HR 713 has attracted 31 cosponsors while S 537 has three so far. Haynie
continues to encourage ARRL members to urge their senators and
representatives and to sign on as cosponsors. Cosponsorhip lends support
to legislation while it's in committee. "Letters and e-mails are the key
to getting legislation passed," Haynie says. A sample letter is =
available
on the ARRL Web site <http://www.arrl.org/govrelations/arspa.html>. =
Those
writing their lawmakers are asked to copy their correspondence to the
League via e-mail <specbill03@arrl.org>.

The text of HR 713 and S 537 is available via the Thomas Web site
<http://thomas.loc.gov/>.

=3D=3D>ARRL, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY TO INK STATEMENT OF =
AFFILIATION

ARRL and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
<http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/> will sign a Statement of Affiliation =
(SoA)
at the League's 2003 National Convention later this month in Texas. The
convention will be held June 20-22 at the Arlington Convention Center in
conjunction with Ham-Com <http://www.hamcom.org>. Since both ARRL and =
DHS
view community disaster preparedness and response as top priorities, =
they
will pledge mutual support for Citizen Corps--a community-based training
and outreach initiative that brings together volunteers and first
responders.

"This is all part of the bigger picture of getting emergency
communications, aligned with what our government needs," said ARRL
President Jim Haynie, W5JBP, who will sign the SoA on the League's =
behalf.
"Amateur Radio stands ready to serve the country as needed in times of
emergency."

Chief Operating Officer of the Emergency Preparedness and Response
Directorate Ron Castleman will represent the DHS at the signing and =
serve
as the lead speaker during the ARRL Forum, Saturday, June 21, at 10 AM.
The forum will take place in an unnumbered room that's to the right of =
the
Ham-Com registration area, not in Room M5 as originally scheduled.

Programs under the Citizen Corps umbrella are aimed at helping =
communities
prevent, prepare for and respond to terrorism, public health issues and
disasters.

The Statement of Affiliation will call on ARRL and DHS to collaborate in
several areas, including raising public awareness of Amateur Radio as a
public safety resource and providing training and accreditation for
Amateur Radio emergency communications. The DHS and the League also will
work together to promote formation and assist Citizen Corps councils in
education, training and volunteer service opportunities that support =
first
responders, disaster relief organizations and community safety efforts.

A schedule of Ham-Com/2003 ARRL National Convention programs is =
available
on the Ham-Com Web site <http://www.hamcom.org/programs/Programs.pdf>.

=3D=3D>40-METER "REALIGNMENT" TOPS WRC-2003 AMATEUR RADIO ISSUES

When delegates gather June 9 in Geneva, Switzerland, for World
Radiocommunication Conference 2003 (WRC-03), Amateur Radio will enjoy
robust representation. The International Amateur Radio Union (IARU) is
looking to WRC-03 to resolve the longstanding issue of a harmonized
worldwide 40-meter amateur allocation. In addition, the IARU has taken
positions on several other issues of importance to hams.

"Forty meters is the biggie," says ARRL CEO David Sumner, K1ZZ, who will
attend the month-long international assembly in the role of =
administrative
officer of the IARU observer delegation headed by President Larry Price,
W4RA. "It's complicated, controversial and involves multiple radio
services, and there's simply no way of predicting what the outcome will
be."

Citing its desire to "meet the needs of communications for humanitarian
assistance," the IARU has expressed strong support for a realignment of
the band to make available to hams globally 300 kHz of spectrum in the
vicinity of 7 MHz.

While Region 2 amateurs--including US hams--now enjoy 7.000 to 7.300 =
MHz,
hams in most of the rest of the world--Regions 1 and 3--may use only =
7.000
to 7.100 MHz. Methods to get the issue off the dime must address the
incompatibility arising from how, where and on what timetable the
broadcasters in Regions 1 and 3 should be shifted to higher frequencies
while continuing to meet the needs of fixed and mobile services in the
band.

Other Amateur Radio-related agenda items include proposed revisions to
Article 25 of the Radio Regulations. Article 25 details the requirements
for Amateur Radio and includes the obligation to demonstrate Morse code
proficiency to operate below 30 MHz. Sumner said he expects the WRC-03
delegates to delete the international requirement, although
administrations could continue to require Morse proficiency if they =
wished
to do so.

The IARU favors a revision to Paragraph 25.6 to incorporate an ITU
Recommendation (ITU-R M.1544) by reference to establish a minimum
international standard for Amateur Radio licensing. The IARU also =
supports
adding new provisions urging administrations to take steps to allow
amateur stations to prepare for and meet communication needs to support
disaster relief and to permit individuals licensed in another country to
operate temporarily while in their territory. The IARU also supports
giving greater flexibility to administrations in the formation of =
Amateur
Radio call signs.

Expressing concern over interference potential, the IARU opposes
allocating any spectrum to the Earth Exploration Satellite Service
(Active) to deploy spaceborne synthetic aperture radars (SARs) in the =
430
to 440 MHz band. Amateur Radio is co-primary at 430 to 440 MHz in Region =
1
and in several countries in Region 2.

As an observer at the conference, the IARU can only request that ITU
member-states take its views into consideration when deciding on WRC-03
agenda items. ARRL has launched a special WRC-03 campaign
<http://www.arrl.org/defense> to help generate the funds needed to
continue the defense of Amateur Radio spectrum. Sumner said
"unquantifiable thousands of hours by volunteers and staff members" have
gone into WRC-03 preparations.

ARRL Technical Relations Manager Paul Rinaldo, W4RI, and ARRL Technical
Relations Specialist Jon Siverling, WB3ERA, will serve on the US
delegation. More than a dozen other Amateur Radio licensees are expected
to be in Geneva to help represent Amateur Radio. WRC-03 concludes July =
4.
More information on WRC-03 is available on the ITU WRC-03 Web page
<http://www.itu.int/ITU-R/conferences/wrc/wrc-03/index.asp> and on the =
FCC
Web site <http://www.fcc.gov/ib/wrc-03/>.

=3D=3D>HAMVENTION REPORTS ATTENDANCE DOWN IN 2003

Hamvention reported June 4 that attendance for this year's 52nd show was
22,168, down a bit more than 10 percent from last year's crowd. "This is
based on the number of admission tickets issued and exhibitor and staff
badges issued," said a statement from the office of Hamvention =
Production
Manager Garry Matthews, KB8GOL. Matthews told ARRL that weather played a
big factor in attendance this year.

"Our biggest contributing factor to the drop was the near-constant rain =
on
Saturday," he said. "We had a whole day washed out."

On the plus side, Matthews said, Hamvention 2003 came close to selling =
out
vendor spaces, and many vendors reported that they had a good year,
despite the smaller crowd.

The 2003 number marks the third year in a row that Hamvention's =
attendance
had dipped. Attendance at last year's 50th anniversary event was 24,832,
down about 5 percent from 2001's crowd of 26,151. The crowd size climbed
to 28,804 in 2000, the year of the ARRL National Convention at =
Hamvention.

Matthews said Hamvention expects to wrap up negotiations within the next
three weeks on a new, two-year contract with Hara Arena, Hamvention's =
home
since the 1960s. The anticipated contract, in conjunction with support
from local hotels and motels and area municipalities, "would allow
Hamvention to stay in the Dayton area for the foreseeable future,"
Matthews' office said.

Hamvention 2004 will be held May 14-16. For more information, visit the
Hamvention Web site <http://www.hamvention.org>.

=3D=3D>KID'S DAY II IS JUNE 21!

The second Kid's Day of 2003 will be June 21, from 1800-2400 UTC. =
There's
no limit on operating time. The twice-annual event, held in January and
June, offers a chance for amateurs to invest in the future of Amateur
Radio by participating in a simple, but rewarding, on-the-air event. Now
in its ninth year, each running of Kid's Day typically attracts more =
than
1000 participants.

Kid's Day is intended as an opportunity to share Amateur Radio with =
young
people--licensed or not--in the hope that they'll enjoy the experience =
and
possibly pursue their own license in the future.

Activity for Kid's Day <http://www.arrl.org/FandES/ead/kd-rules.html>
takes place on 20, 15 and 10 meters and can include local 2-meter
repeaters. It's an opportunity to introduce your own youngsters,
neighborhood kids and nieces and nephews to participate to the magic of
ham radio and perhaps spark a lifelong love for the hobby.

Kid's Day is not a contest, and patience is a must. The role of the
licensee and control operator is to help with the basics, keep an eye on
the technical aspects of the operation, observe third-party traffic
agreements and be sure to ID at the proper intervals. In this event, =
it's
quality of the contacts that counts, not quantity.

The suggested exchange for Kid's Day is first name, age, location and
favorite color. It's okay to work the same station again if the operator
has changed. Call "CQ Kid's Day." Suggested frequencies are 14,270 to
14,300, 21,380 to 21,400 and 28,350 to 28,400 kHz, and 2-meter repeater
frequencies with permission from your area repeater sponsor.

All participants are eligible to receive a colorful certificate. Visit =
the
ARRL Kid's Day Survey page
<http://www.arrl.org/FandES/ead/kids-day-survey.html> to complete a =
short
survey and post your comments. You will then have access to download the
certificate page or send a 9x12 SASE to Boring Amateur Radio Club, PO =
Box
1357, Boring, OR 97009.

Originated by the Boring Amateur Radio Club <http://jzap.com/k7rat/>, =
the
event now is sponsored and administered by the ARRL with the cooperation
and assistance of the BARC.

=3D=3D>"MR HAMVENTION" FRANK SCHWAB, W8OK, SK

Well-known top-flight contester and CW operator Frank Schwab, W8OK, of
Dayton, Ohio, died May 30 after a lengthy illness. He was 77. In 1952 =
and
then president of the Dayton Amateur Radio Association, Schwab was among
the organizers of the first Hamvention. Schwab subsequently became known
around Dayton as the "father of Hamvention" or "Mr Hamvention."

Schwab had attended every Hamvention but the most recent one in May,
during which he was hospitalized. An ARRL Life Member, he also belonged =
to
the Society of Wireless Pioneers and the Quarter Century Wireless
Association. As a founder and member of the Southwestern Ohio DX
Association, he was involved in planning the annual DX banquet held in
conjunction with Hamvention. Schwab was Hamvention's Amateur of the Year
in 1978.

A World War II Navy veteran radioman, Schwab was first licensed in 1946 =
as
W8YCP and, owing in part to his considerable CW skill (he could copy 55
WPM), he soon rose to the top of the DXCC ranks (376 DXCC entities
confirmed) and eventual membership in the CQ DX Hall of Fame.

Survivors include his wife, Carolyn, 12 children, 30 grandchildren and 3
great grandchildren. Four of his survivors are hams. They include his
daughter Joanne Hubbard, N8QMP, grandchildren Bobbie Anderson, KC7RWX, =
and
Sarah Anderson, KC7MRO, and son-in-law Jack Hubbard, NI8N.--information
provided by Jack Hubbard, NI8N

=3D=3D>SOLAR UPDATE

Propagation prognosticator Tad "Don't Let the Sun Go Down on Me" Cook,
K7RA, Seattle, Washington, reports: More crazy space weather this week.
Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux both were down, and the
average daily A index was up. Some have expressed a lot of angst about =
the
solar wind, solar flares, stormy conditions and resulting absorption, =
but
VHF operators are loving it.

Average daily planetary A index compared to the previous week was up =
over
50 percent to 37.1. The stormiest day was Thursday, May 29, with a
planetary A index of 89. Late in the day the planetary K index was
8--which is exceptional.

We should enter a new solar wind stream over this weekend, June 7 and 8.
Predicted planetary A index for June 6-12 is 15, 20, 30, 30, 25, 20 and
15. Solar flux forecast for the same days is 115, 118, 120, 120, 122 and
124. As we move toward summer, expect daytime MUF to continue to =
decline.
While 15 meters should decline during the daytime, 20 meters should be
good from North America toward the Pacific late into the evening.

Sunspot numbers for May 29 through June 4 were 98, 62, 57, 66, 61, 54 =
and
74, with a mean of 67.4. The 10.7 cm flux was 137.8, 117.2, 113.1, =
112.3,
121.4, 114.5 and 105.6, with a mean of 117.4. Estimated planetary A
indices were 89, 49, 17, 19, 39, 26 and 21, with a mean of 37.1.

__________________________________

=3D=3D>IN BRIEF:

* This weekend on the radio: The VK-ZL Trans-Tasman Contest (CW), the =
IARU
Region 1 Field Day (CW) and the QRP TAC Sprint are the weekend of June
7-8. JUST AHEAD: The ARRL June VHF QSO Party, the ANARTS World Wide RTTY
Contest, the Portugal Day Contest, the World Wide South America CW
Contest, the Asia-Pacific Sprint (SSB) and the West Virginia QSO Party =
are
the weekend of June 14-15. See the ARRL Contest Branch page
<http://www.arrl.org/contests/> and the WA7BNM Contest Calendar
<http://www.hornucopia.com/contestcal/index.html> for more info.

* ARRL Certification and Continuing Education course registration:
Registration for the ARRL Antenna Modeling (EC-004) course opens Monday,
June 9, 12:01 AM Eastern Daylight Time (0401 UTC) and will remain open
through Sunday, June 15. Class begins Tuesday, June 17. Those interested
in taking an ARRL Certification and Continuing Education (C-CE) course =
in
the future can sign up to be advised via e-mail in advance of =
registration
opportunities. Send an e-mail to prereg@arrl.org. On the subject line,
indicate the course name or number (eg, EC-00#) and the month you want =
to
start the course. In the message body, provide your name, call sign, and
e-mail address. To learn more, visit the ARRL Certification and =
Continuing
Education Web page <http://www.arrl.org/cce> and the C-CE links found
there. For more information, contact Certification and Continuing
Education Program Coordinator Howard Robins, W1HSR, hrobins@arrl.org.

* ARRL Emergency Communications course registration: Registration is
closed for the Level I ARRL Amateur Radio Emergency Communications =
on-line
course (EC-001) that begins June 17 and is sponsored by the United
Technologies Corporation. Registration opens Monday, June 9, 12:01 AM
Eastern Daylight Time (0400 UTC), for the Level II Emergency
Communications on-line course (EC-002). Registration remains open =
through
the June 14-15 weekend or until all available seats have been
filled--whichever comes first. Class begins Tuesday, June 24. Thanks to
United Technologies Corporation, the $45 registration fee paid upon
enrollment will be reimbursed after successful completion of the Level =
II
course. Approximately 75 seats are being offered to ARRL members on a
first-come, first-served basis. To learn more, visit the ARRL
Certification and Continuing Education Web page =
<http://www.arrl.org/cce/>
and the C-CE Links found there. For more information, contact Emergency
Communications Course Manager Dan Miller, K3UFG, dmiller@arrl.org;
860-594-0340.

* ARRL to sponsor emergency communications course seminar in Oregon: The
ARRL will offer a free Amateur Radio Emergency Communications course
(ARECC) seminar Friday, June 13, in conjunction with the ARRL Northwest
Division Convention, SeaPac, in Seaside, Oregon. The seminar will not
include the Level I course itself. This program is designed to explain =
in
greater detail the duties of volunteer certification mentors, =
instructors
and examiners of the Amateur Radio Emergency Communications courses and
provide additional information for those considering these volunteer
positions. The seminar will be held June 13, 1-5 PM. Seating may be
limited. Contact ARRL Emergency Communications Course Manager Dan =
Miller,
K3UFG, k3ufg@arrl.org, 860-594-0340; fax 860-594-0259, if you plan to
attend. For registered CMs, CIs and CEs who attend, mileage may be
reimbursable up to a total of $35. Seminar attendance does not include
admission to the convention, which is June 13 through June 15. For more
information on SeaPac, visit the convention Web site
<http://www.seapac.org>.

* FCC corrects comment, reply comment dates in BPL proceeding: The FCC
says comment and reply comment deadlines in its Broadband over Power =
Line
(BPL) Notice of Inquiry (ET Docket 03-104) published May 23 in the =
Federal
Register were incorrect. In a correction issued June 3, the FCC =
announced
that comments from the public in this proceeding are due on or before =
July
7, 2003. Reply comments are due on or before August 6, 2003.

* NorCal, NJQRP merge to form American QRP Club: The NorCal QRP Club and
the New Jersey QRP Club have joined forces, effective June 4, to form =
The
American QRP Club. A larger, more comprehensive single journal, The
Homebrewer, will replace QRPp and QRP Homebrewer. The new club already =
has
begun to consolidate kitting operations as well, and a new Web site
<http://www.a-qrp.org> is in the offing. Continuing will be the two QRP
forums, Atlanticon and Pacificon, and the NJQRP and NorCal will continue
to plan and execute their respective forums, funded via the American QRP
Club. Detailed information is available on the American QRP Club's
temporary Web site <http://www.njqrp.org/a-qrp/index.html>.

* Vote on QST Cover Plaque award: The winner of the QST Cover Plaque =
Award
for May was Allen Baker, KG4JJH, for his article "The Black Widow--A
Portable 15 Meter Beam." Congratulations, Allen! The winner of the QST
Cover Plaque award--given to the author--or authors--of the best article
in each issue--is determined by a vote of ARRL members. Voting takes =
place
each month on the QST Cover Plaque Poll Web page
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favorite articles in the June issue of QST. Voting ends June 30.

* Corrections: The story "ARRL Releases Updated 'Logbook of the World'
Beta Software" that appeared in The ARRL Letter, Vol 22, No 22 (May 30,
2003), incorrectly indicated an approximate beta testing termination =
date.
Beta testing will wrap up later this year, but no specific date has been
determined. Also, the story should have said, "Patton says the beta =
update
will allow users to 'map' any mode designation to one of the valid =
Amateur
Data Interchange Format (ADIF) modes or to one of the LoTW mode
categories--CW, phone, image, and digital--without changing the actual =
log
data." Another story in the same edition, "Hams On The 'Hot Seat' at =
ARRL
Hamvention PR Forum," incorrectly named one of the manufacturers that
donated hand-held radios as prizes for the public relations forum. The
manufacturers were Icom and Alinco.

* Clarification: The article "Washington Ham Wins Inaugural Goldfarb
Memorial Scholarship" that appeared in The ARRL Letter, Vol 22, No 19 =
(May
9, 2003) failed to accurately describe the nature of this scholarship
award and how the actual award is determined. The Goldfarb Memorial
Scholarship award is calculated by taking into account the college's =
cost
(tuition, room, board and books) less the expected family contribution
<http://www.fafsa.ed.gov/>http://www.fafsa.ed.gov/> and any other
scholarship awards. The Goldfarb Memorial Scholarship award normally =
will
be at least $10,000. The award in any given year is capped by the money
available through investment income. Among other requirements, the =
student
recipient also must maintain a minimum GPA, stay with a major that =
matches
the Goldfarb Memorial Scholarhip terms of reference and supply an =
updated
Student Aid Report. The award is paid to the school on a =
semester/quarter
basis. Applications for the 2004 award will be accepted starting October
1, 2003. See the ARRL Foundation Web site <http://www.arrl.org/arrlf/> =
for
further information.

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From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun  7 10:41:32 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sat, 07 Jun 2003 04:41:32 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/7/2003 4:41:32 AM
Message-ID: <200306070941.EAA09888@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 070939
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
439 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2003

LIKE LAST NIGHT ETA IS VERIFYING POORLY THROUGH THE FIRST 9 HOURS
AND WAS A WASTE OF CPU TIME. UKMET/NGM STILL DOING THE BEST AND WILL
FOLLOW WITH INPUT FROM RUC IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE RAISED HEADLINES FOR FOG IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. THIS BASED ON TRENDS FROM RUC AND VISIBILITY TRENDS
FROM EXPERIMENTAL RUC RUN AT FSL. FOG TO HAVE A STABILIZING AFFECT
AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHRA DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY EXCEPT ABOUT
THE WESTERN THIRD.

TONIGHT NEXT UPPER LOW TO ARRIVE WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TIMING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS EVENT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHRA BY MID AFTERNOON. SHRA TO LINGER INTO
THE EVENING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST THIRD. WET GROUND/COOL TEMPS
SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

COOLING AFFECT OF MORNING FOG SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPS FROM
YESTERDAYS THINKING. TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A LITTLE
COOLER THAN FRIDAY.

DIDN/T HAVE TIME TO PLAY MUCH WITH EXTENDED DUE TO MORE PRESSING
CONCERNS IN CLOSE. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CHANGED POSITION OF BOUNDARY
A LITTLE...BUT GENERAL TREND IS TO PUSH BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH EACH RUN. SIGNALS STILL THERE FOR TWO SIGNIFICANT MCS
EVENTS TO AFFECT THE CWFA WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

DVN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM.
IA...IA042-054-066>68-078-089-099.
IL...ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...MOZ010.

$$

SF





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun  7 11:04:22 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sat, 07 Jun 2003 05:04:22 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/7/2003 5:04:22 AM
Message-ID: <200306071004.FAA13564@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 071000
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-081000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DENSE FOG ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL LIFT BY 9 AM. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST
OF A MCGREGOR...TIPTON...MEMPHIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING RAIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT TO MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND NO WIND SHEAR...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION BRINGING
A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAINS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION AROUND MID
WEEK. CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN ON TOP OF SOILS THAT WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED.

THE THIRD STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK. CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON TOP OF SATURATED SOILS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD LISTEN TO LATER FORECASTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
BECOME BETTER DEFINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.  IF HEAVY
RAINS DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...RAINFALL REPORTS AND RIVER
READINGS FROM SPOTTERS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED DURING THE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

SF





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun  7 22:47:43 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sat, 07 Jun 2003 16:47:43 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/7/2003 4:47:43 PM
Message-ID: <200306072147.QAA19300@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 072136
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
430 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2003

UPPER LOW MARCHING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN IA WITH VORT MAX GENERATING AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL IA ATTIM.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AIDING ISOLD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS 
MAINLY IN FAR WESTERN ZONES...WITH ONE OR TWO AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVING POPPED UP WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO IN NORTHEAST MO. 

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH POPS/TEMPS NEXT FEW DAYS. 

UPPER LOW INTO WESTERN IA ATTIM WILL MOVE E/NE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY ON SUN. SOME CONCERNS THAT PCPN COVERAGE MAY DIMINISH SOME
AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT HEALTHY LIFT WITH DECENT OMEGA...JET
SUPPORT AND PVA SUPPORT HIGH POPS. WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS WILL
GO SOME 3-5 DEGS ABOVE MINS OF THIS MORNING...WITH GUIDANCE IN THE BALLPARK. 

MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR DRY SLOT SUN MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH
AND WEST...AS UPPER LOW LIFTS THROUGH. DIFFICULT WORDING PCPN TYPE.
BELIEVE WE/LL SEE DEFORMATION ZONE WRAP BACK IN AROUND UPPER LOW AND AFFECT 
NORTHERN 1/2 OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...WITH COLD POOL 
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS. FOR THOSE WITH INTEREST IN THE AIR SHOW IN THE
QUAD CITIES...THINKING SHOWERS WILL SHUT DOWN AROUND OR SHORTLY 
AFTER 7 AM...THEN THERE SHOULD BE SOME DRY TIME BETWEEN 7 AM AND 11 AM BEFORE 
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WRAPS BACK IN AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR. 

NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADJUSTING PCPN TYPE ON SUN TO MORE STRATIFORM 
RATHER THE CONVECTIVE...AND MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS SUN EVENING
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN 1/2 UNTIL DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS. PCPN TRENDS WILL TELL.
KEPT PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEA OF UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE BY A CAT OR SO 
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME FOG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 
ANY CLEARING BUT GRADIENT APPEARS TO TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO STAY 
UP...AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION.  

MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. PCPN CHCS
INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. 

EXTENDED (WED-SAT)...TOUGH FORECAST WITH FRONTAL POSITIONING CRITICAL. 07/12Z 
GFS EXTENSION CONTINUES RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF PUSHING FRONT FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS MO ON THU. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL DEVELOP AND ROLL
EASTWARD ALONG EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL 
ADD TO COMPLEXITY OF FORECAST AS THEY WILL MOST LIKELY IMPEDE NORTHWARD 
PROGRESS OF FRONT. THUS...WHEN TO INTRODUCE PCPN IS MAIN QUESTION.
THURS LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PCPN WILL BE FOCUSING IN THE PLAINS ALONG
TROUGH/WEAK FRONT AND TO OUR SOUTH ALONG EAST-WEST FRONT. WILL
KEEP POPS GOING FOR LATE IN THE DAY ON THU...THEN BLANKET POPS THROUGH
SAT IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME WITH EAST-WEST FRONT IN
VICINITY. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS STRONG CONVECTION AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINS 
LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.  

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

05







From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sun Jun  8 10:24:14 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sun, 08 Jun 2003 04:24:14 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/8/2003 4:24:14 AM
Message-ID: <200306080924.EAA10879@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 080919
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
419 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2003

ETA STILL DOING POORLY...BUT HAS OBVIOUSLY GOTTEN EDUCATED SOMEWHAT
SINCE YESTERDAY. IRONICALLY 00Z META DOING BETTER THAN ETA.
UKMET/NGM RUC SHOW UPPER LOW TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS CWFA
DURING THE DAY. CURRENT PRECIP IN CENTRAL IOWA TO WRAP INTO CWFA
DURING THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS. ALTHOUGH DOUBTFUL GIVEN LIFT/VORTICITY AN ISOLATED TSRA
COULD OCCUR. TEMPS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH THROUGH MID DAY AS H85 COLD
POOL (OMA +5 AT 00Z) MOVES OVER CWFA. H85 TEMPS GRADUALLY REACH
LEVELS SIMILAR READINGS THAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. THUS HAVE UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A LITTLE.

TONIGHT ANY LINGERING SHRA TO END DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWED
EVENTUALLY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. WINDS TO DROP OFF TONIGHT AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. MONDAY TEMPS
REBOUND BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY GETS REAL INTERESTING. SIGNALS FROM MODELS
POINT TO AN MCS TO MOVE ACROSS CWFA. UKMET HAS BOUNDARY ACROSS CWFA
WITH OTHER MODELS IN VARYING POSITIONS IN OR NORTH OF CWFA. NEW 06Z
META POINTS TO A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA...A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH THAN UKMET. BASED ON H85 LLJ/INFLOW/THETA E ADVECTION
POTENTIAL THERE FOR A POSSIBLE BOW/DERECHO. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN
HWO AND LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE FURTHER.

DIDN/T CHANGE THE EXTENDED BUT SIGNALS FROM GLOBAL MODELS POINT TO
A WARM AND WET PERIOD. DEPENDING ON WHERE BOUNDARY SETS UP CWFA MAY
BE IN MCS ALLEY FOR A WHILE.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sun Jun  8 11:13:29 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sun, 08 Jun 2003 05:13:29 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/8/2003 5:13:29 AM
Message-ID: <200306081014.FAA17281@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 081009
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-091000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
509 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A GENERAL RAIN NORTH OF A SIGOURNEY TO
GALVA LINE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. DUE TO A LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER
DUE TO FAIRLY LOW FREEZING LEVELS ALOFT...SOME PEA SIZED HAIL IS
POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO A COOL WET GROUND AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION BRINGING
A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP IN THE
PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THAT A SQUALL LINE
MAY DEVELOP AND RACE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE HIGH WINDS AND HAIL.
UNCERTAINTY EXITS ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER
THE AREA THAT APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN.

THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY  CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN POSSIBLE ON TOP OF NEARLY SATURATED SOILS. THE AREA MOST AT
THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

A THIRD STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ON TOP OF SATURATED SOILS. CURRENT INFORMATION
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WOULD BE UNDER
THE GREATEST THREAT.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD LISTEN TO LATER FORECASTS THIS WEEK AS THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAIN...AND FLOODING BECOME BETTER
DEFINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF HEAVY
RAINS DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...RAINFALL REPORTS AND RIVER
READINGS FROM SPOTTERS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED DURING THE WEEK.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

SF





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sun Jun  8 22:23:25 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sun, 08 Jun 2003 16:23:25 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/8/2003 4:23:25 PM
Message-ID: <200306082123.QAA28706@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 082110
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
410 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2003

UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN WI. VORT MAX SHOWS UP NICELY IN RADAR AND
SATELLITE PICS OVER NORTHEAST IL NEAR KORD. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS COUPLED
WITH COLD POOL ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED CONVECTION 
THROUGOUT CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT
REGION CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER WESTERN CAN IN SOUTHERN BC. 

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING AND FOG...AND LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE MON-TUE...AND POTENTIAL
FOR ACTIVE PATTERN FEATURING LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINS AND STRONG CONVECTION
BY WEEKS END. 

SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER AREA DRIVEN LARGELY BY SOLAR INSOLATION...THUS
ONCE THE SUN SETS SHOULD SEE IT DIE OUT QUICKLY. ALSO...EXPECT SOME 
PARTIAL CLEARING...AND WITH WINDS DYING OFF AND WET GROUND NOT OUT OF THE 
QUESTION TO SEE SOME FOG. LOWS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS 
POTENTIAL TO BE COLDER THAN GOING FORECAST SHOULD CLEARING BECOME MORE 
DOMINANT AND OCCUR SOONER THAN EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO A FEW NIGHTS AGO. 

MONDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH SURFACE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH. RIDGE SHIFTS 
QUICKLY EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM. SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW AND DYNAMICS...WITH GFS BEING FURTHEST NORTH...THOUGH
TRENDING SOUTH FROM 06Z RUN...AND NGM FURTHEST SOUTH. 
18Z META NOW SHIFTING SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTH INTO WI FROM 12Z RUN...SO
SYSTEM GIVING MODELS FITS TO SAY THE LEAST. REGARDLESS...STRONG
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FUEL NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...AND DEPENDING 
UPON WHICH MODEL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MCS TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CWA.
BASED ON LATEST META WITH A JUMP TO THE NORTH...SUGGESTS NORTHERN SECTIONS
MOST AT RISK FOR DECAYING MCS AND HEAVY RAINS. CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME ELEVATED HAILERS MON NIGHT...BUT OVERALL GIVEN TIMING BELIEVE SEVERE
THREAT MINIMAL. LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD ATTIM. 

FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ON TUE...WITH TIMING SUGGESTING BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE IN OUR EAST AND SOUTH ZONES...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
ON CLOUD COVER WITH IMPACTS ON DESTABILIZATION. IF WE CAN GET SOME SUN
AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS EARLY ON BEFORE
ACTIVITY COALESCES INTO SQUALL LINE. LEFT LINGERING LOW CHANCE POPS
TUE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN GRAZING THE NORTH AND
FOR POSSIBILITY OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS IN SOUTH. MID CREW WILL WANT
TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH 18Z META TRENDING
NORTH WITH SURFACE LOW WHICH WOULD SHIFT THREAT FOR DEF ZONE PRECIPITATION
FURTHER NORTH. 

FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO MO TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN DRYING THINGS OUT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM INTO THURSDAY
PROVIDING DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS. 

EXTENDED (THU-SUN)...BROAD MEAN FRONTAL ZONE PROGGED IN VICINITY OF THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY ON GIVING 12Z/08 GFS LOTS OF FITS. MODEL GENERATES
SPURIOUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...AND STRUGGLES WITH H5 HEIGHTS AND 
SHORTWAVES. THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE RESULTS IN A NOISY UPPER PATTERN.
SO...HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH BLEND OF UKMET AND ECMWF. GOOD 
AGREEMENT EXISTS EARLY IN FORECAST PERIOD WITH FRONT LYING TO OUR SOUTH IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. FRONT WILL BE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CLOUDING UP MESOSCALE PICTURE.
UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW NEXT SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRI/SAT. 
HAVE PUSHED BACK POPS TO LATE THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUE THEM THROUGH SAT. 
POTENTIAL FOR FRONT TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE INTRODUCED 
POPS. 

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

05







From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun  9 09:33:45 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Mon, 09 Jun 2003 03:33:45 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/9/2003 3:33:45 AM
Message-ID: <200306090833.DAA16133@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 090831
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2003

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED REGION BETWEEN SURFACE LOW 
JUST NORHT OF LK HURON AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MO RIVER 
VALLEY.  00Z H5 ANALYSIS SHOWED BROAD WNW FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF 
THE U.S.  THE H5 LOW THAT BOUGHT THE RAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY WAS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT REGION 
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA.  

MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL TONIGHT.  AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST 
24 HOURS MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WERE NOW SHOWING SIMILAR 
SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS 
THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS ALL SHOW THE LOW LIFTNING ENE AND DEEPENING 
AS IT MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MN INTO NRN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND 
TUESDAY MORNING.   MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE THE 
IMPACT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ON REGION TONIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TODAY WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGE 
TRAVERSING CWA.  BASED ON MOIST H7 WNW FLOW OVER REGION WILL 
PROBABLY SEE SOME PATCHY AC DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE 
NORTHEASTERN CWA.  WITH THE CLOUD POTENTIAL WILL KEEP TEMPS TODAY 
JUST UNDER THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE...ABOUT THE SAME AS GOING 
FORECAST.  THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT.  BEST 
THREAT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW.  MODELS SHOW THETA 
E RIDGE INPLACE OVER ERN NEBRASKA AT 00Z.  RIDGE SHIFTS INTO WESTERN 
IOWA BY 06Z AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PLACES ERN 
IA IN REGION OF STRONG THETA E ADVECTION.  ALL THIS IS COINCIDENT 
WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS REGION.  CURRENT FORECAST 
HAS MENTION OF CONVECTION AFTER 03Z...WHICH STILL LOOKS GOOD.  BEST 
THREAT THOUGH WILL BE AFTER 06Z WITH STRONGEST MID LEVEL FORCING 
COMING INTO  PLAY. AGREE WITH DMX ASSESMENT THAT BY THE TIME 
CONVECTION GETS GOING OVER EASTERN IOWA...IT SHOULD BE ELEVATED.  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WBZ HEIGHTS WILL BE JUST OVER 9K FT BY 
06Z...SO LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE OF SOME CONCERN WITH LLJ FEEDING OFF 
REGION OF PW'S NEAR 1.5 IN OVER WESTERN IOWA. THE HIGH PW'S SUGGEST 
THAT AN INCH OR BETTER QPF IS POSSIBLE OVER CWA. HOWEVER WITHOUT A 
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS HEAVIER PCPN...THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD 
BE THE EXCEPTION.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING FRONT THROUGH 
CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ETA...SUGGEST THAT 
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT 
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS 
FAVORABLE...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY 
WILL BE WEAK.  BOUANCY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE.  AT 
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE ETA MAY BE OVERDOING THE TEMPS/CAPES 
FOR TUESDAY. GFS IS SHOWING A LOT MORE RH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND 
THEREFORE IS HOLDING DOWN TEMPS MORE.  MODELS ARE ALL PUSHING FRONT 
AT LEAST INTO CENTRAL MO TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVE 
WEATHER SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MID WEEK. GFS WAS SETTING UP A 
MODERATE NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OVER CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS 
A RESULT HAVE BACKED OFF TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY FROM PREVIOUS 
FORECAST.  

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$
DLF









From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun  9 12:02:19 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Mon, 09 Jun 2003 06:02:19 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/9/2003 6:02:19 AM
Message-ID: <200306091103.GAA09111@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 091100
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-101000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
559 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE GREATEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. MOIST...
UNSTABLE AIR RUSHING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL TRIGGER
DEVELOPMENT OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THESE LATE NIGHT STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED AREAS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS.  IF
THESE LATE EVENING STORMS MATERIALIZE...THEY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR A COLD FRONT LOCATED
JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER  EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER A MID WEEK BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN THREATEN REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.  WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS EVENING OVER
EASTERN IOWA AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTER NETWORKS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

DLF





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun  9 21:27:18 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Mon, 09 Jun 2003 15:27:18 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/9/2003 3:27:18 PM
Message-ID: <200306092027.PAA22814@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 092020
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
315 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2003

MAIN FORECAST QUESTION WILL BE THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION AND THE 
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.

SYNOPSIS-
THE LOCAL AREA IS BEGINNING TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM MO THROUGH MN.  SFC LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING 
OVER THE PANHANDLE OF NE...WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST ACROSS 
CENTRAL NE THROUGH WESTERN MO.  THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR 
INTENSE CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALOFT...DEEP MOISTURE 
IS FLOWING NORTH OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS OF 15 TO 18C 
LIFTING INTO OK AT 12Z. THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND 
OVERNIGHT WILL BE A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING SOUTHEAST 
ACROSS MT THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AT 12Z. ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE SHORT 
WAVE TROF IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND WILL 
LIKELY AFFECT THE MIDWESTS WEATHER BY MID/LATE WEEK.

SHORT TERM- (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS STORMS 
ALONG THE WARM FRONT FIRE WELL WEST OF THE CWA. STRONG TO SEVERE 
STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO LINEAR CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THIS 
EVENING.  CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL EXISTS AS THE POTENTIAL 
FOR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE RAPIDLY 
PROPAGATING COLD POOL.  THE THREAT APPEARS GREATEST IN THE SOUTHERN 
CWA...WHERE 850MB FLOW WILL FEED BETTER MOISTURE INTO STORMS. 
CURRENT FORECAST OF LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS ON TARGET AND 
WILL ONLY TWEAK POPS SLIGHTLY FOR A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT.  
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN CWA EARLY TUESDAY.  SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL 
LIKELY FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT.  A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE IF THE 
OUTFLOW FROM TONIGHTS STORMS WILL FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF THE 
CONVECTION SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  DUE TO THIS 
POSSIBILITY...WILL LOWER TUESDAYS POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH 
AND CENTRAL...AND CONTINUE LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH.  

BREAK IN THE RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT TO 
OUR SOUTH AND NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW FROM HIGH IN THE 
GREAT LAKES. 

RENEWED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD 
BRUSH THE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST PROTECTING RIDGE 
TO SHIFT EAST WITH ENERGY APPROACHING SO HAVE INCLUDED
POPS ENTIRE AREA THURS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT POPS THURS NIGHT.

EXTENDED- (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
INTERESTING AND TRICKY FORECAST WITH DETAILS DEPENDENT ON LOCATION 
OF LAKE ENHANCED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. FRONT WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND EXCESSIVE RAINS...WITH
ANY DRIFT NORTH OR SOUTH FROM INTERACTION WITH OUTFLOWS 
EFFECTIVELY SHIFTING THE THREAT AREA. GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE IMPACTING SOME AREAS IN 
THE MIDWEST. THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS LOCATION...WHICH WILL
BE DETERMINED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES UNRESOLVED THIS FAR OUT. 
LEANING TOWARD BLEND OF UKMET AND ECMWF...WHICH WITH NORTHERN TREND 
TO FRONTAL POSITION SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA ARE MOST 
AT RISK ATTIM FOR SEEING EXCESSIVE RAINS WITH ONE OR TWO MCS/S INTO 
SATURDAY. WILL ISSUE ESF HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIAL. FRONT WILL FEATURE 
SEASONABLE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH...WITH WARM AND 
MUGGY PREVAILING SOUTH. 

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

ERVIN/MCCLURE





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun  9 21:41:11 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Mon, 09 Jun 2003 15:41:11 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/9/2003 3:41:11 PM
Message-ID: <200306092041.PAA27590@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 092035
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-101000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
335 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LATE 
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER 
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND 
LARGE HAIL.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN 
MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF THE 
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR RUSHING NORTHWARD 
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT 
OF THE PLAINS...WILL TRIGGER DEVELOPMENT OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX 
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. THESE 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AFTER 
MIDNIGHT IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE. IF THESE STORMS MAINTAIN 
THEIR INTENSITY DURING THE NIGHT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST 
MISSOURI EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR A COLD FRONT LOCATED 
JUST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY 
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST 
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER A MID WEEK BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL AGAIN THREATEN REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.  WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE 
MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN 
ILLINOIS...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH 
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING LATE THIS WEEK 
ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT.  THE AREA MOST AT RISK OF SEEING FLOODING 
AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE SOUTHEAST IOWA...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS 
AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN IOWA 
AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  ACTIVATION OF SPOTTER 
NETWORKS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MAY ALSO BE 
REQUIRED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

$$

ERVIN








From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun 10 13:28:04 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 10 Jun 2003 07:28:04 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Weather Watch : 3@ 6/10/2003 7:28:04 AM
Message-ID: <200306101228.HAA28669@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


WWUS20 KWNS 101227
SEL3  
SPC WW 101215
ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-101800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 503 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
715 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
       WESTERN KENTUCKY
       CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 715 AM UNTIL 100
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 55
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 180 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF VICHY MISSOURI
TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS MISSOURI.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.




DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT NRN MO MCS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STATIONARY W/E ACROSS SRN PART OF STATE...WHILE ERN PORTION
CONTINUES SE ACROSS SRN IL. MORNING RAOBS SHOW SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING VERY WARM/MOIST AIR INTO REGION
ALONG AND ABOVE BOUNDARY.  GIVEN 30+ KT DEEP SHEAR AND SHARP
INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY EXPECTED AS HEATING ERODES
SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION LATER TODAY...POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR
BOTH STRONG MULTICELLS WITH HAIL...AND SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH
WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...CORFIDI

;383,0875 363,0880 363,0943 383,0943; 
WWWW


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun 10 12:17:32 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 10 Jun 2003 06:17:32 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/10/2003 6:17:32 AM
Message-ID: <200306101117.GAA15064@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 101113
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
612 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 AM EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.  A SMALL SCALE INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPED BEHIND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
THAT MOVED THROUGH AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING...IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
HIGH WIND.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
EAST...THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A MEMPHIS MISSOURI...MT PLEASANT IOWA...QUAD
CITIES...STERLING ILLINOIS LINE. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP...
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE REGION.  AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.  THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THURSDAY.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

DLF





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun 10 09:42:10 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 10 Jun 2003 03:42:10 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/10/2003 3:42:09 AM
Message-ID: <200306100842.DAA18994@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 100838
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

SURFACE LOW PRESSUE WAS CENTERED OVER NW IOWA AT 07Z WITH COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN NE AND CENTRAL KS. WARM FRONT EXTENDED 
SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW INTO SE IA.  NICE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING 
ESE THROUGH S CENTRAL AND SE IA AND NRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. LINE 
OF STRONG TSRA BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH UPSTREAM 
ASOS/AWOS REPORTS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR SHOWING GUSTS AROUND 40MPH.  
TIMING SUGGESTS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER MS RIVER BY 0930Z AND 
EXITING SERN CWA AROUND 12Z.  STORMS ARE MOVING INTO MORE STABLE 
AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S AND UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS OVER WEST 
CENTRA IL...THUS SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.  SE 
IA AND NEARBY AREAS OF MO/IL SHOULD GET A GOOD  DRENCHING THOUGH. 
KDMX 88D PCPN ESTIMATES SHOWING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THEIR SERN 
CWA...AND WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80.  

MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING SYNOPTIC SITUATION THROUGH THE 
PERIOD.  EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES.  
MODELS VERIFIED POORLY AT 06Z ON THEIR 6HR FCSTS OF THE SURFACE LOW 
POSITION AND STRENGTH.  THE GFS WAS BY FAR THE WORST SHOWING A 
DEEPER LOW OVER SWRN MN.  THE ETA/NGM WERE ALSO TOO FAR NORTH WITH 
THE LOW BUT NOT AS BAD AS THE GFS.  IN THE SHORT TERM WILL THROW OUT 
THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT MOVES THE LOW OFF TO THE EAST MUCH FASTER 
THAN THE OTHER MODELS.  WILL GO CLOSER TO THE ETA 
SOLUTION...POSITIONING COLD FRONT/TROUGH OVER NW CWA BY 18Z. WILL 
HAVE TO MONITOR CURRENT CONVECTION AND MAKE LAST MINUTE TWEEKS TO 
THE GRIDS.  GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD ORDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS NW AND LIKELY SE WHERE CONDITIONS WILL 
BE MOVE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY 
EVENING.  THERE MAY BE A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT OVER THE SOUTHEAST 
CWA WITH CAPES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG.

AFTER THIS EVENING...QUESTION IS WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT. 
GFS/UKMET CONTINUE TO DRIVE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MO WHILE ETA/NGM KEEP 
JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER.  BASED ON WNW MID LEVEL FLOW AND 
STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL 
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/UKMETS SOUTHERN SOLUTION AND LEAVE 
FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.  NE SURFACE FLOW 
OVER CWA WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.  
MODELS SHOW FRONT CREEPING BACK NORTH LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A 
WEAK SHORT APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL KEEP CURRENT 
FORECAST INTACT...WITH BEST POPS SOUTH NEAR THE BOUNDARY. RAINS OVER 
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND THREAT OF MORE RAIN THIS 
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PRIME SOILS FOR A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT 
LATE THIS WEEK.  GFS/UKMET BOTH SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG BOUNDARY 
FRIDAY...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN AND WILL UPDATE ESF 
ISSUED MONDAY.


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

DLF







From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun 10 21:19:33 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 10 Jun 2003 15:19:33 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/10/2003 3:19:33 PM
Message-ID: <200306102019.PAA24339@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 102015
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
312 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

FINE LINE OF CONVECTION SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 88D 
FROM FREEPORT THROUGH KDVN INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA OCCURRING ALONG 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW JUST NORTH OF KLSE. ONLY SPRINKLES 
OCCURRED WITH PASSAGE AT OFFICE...BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION 
MAY BE TAKING OFF...INITIALLY OVER NORTHWEST IL...AS IT MOVES INTO 
LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE AND WHERE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE HAS PUSHED LAPS 
SB CAPES INTO RANGE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. 18Z ANALYSIS INDICATED 
MAIN COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING CWA IN EASTERN IOWA... EXTENDING 
SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN KS. SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE IS 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES.

AREA OF SCATTERED POPS IN GRIDS LOOKED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON AREA 
OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL KEEP 30 PERCENT 
GOING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG COLD FRONT AND HAVE 
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHWEST CORNER OF  
FORECAST AREA. 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS MAX OF 2 TO 3 MB OVER EASTERN 
WI INTO WESTERN LOWER MI INDICATING THAT THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD 
CONTINUE EAST AS ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS WITH HIGH CURRENTLY 
OVER ND SHIFTING EAST. MOST CU WEST OF LOW LOOKS DIURNAL...HOWEVER 
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BANDS OF SC ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON 
AND ANTICIPATE SOME TO LINGER WELL INTO MIDNIGHT UNTIL LOCAL FLOW 
BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC. SURFACE AIRMASS TRAJECTORY SUPPORTS CLOSE TO 
GOING GRIDS AND LATEST GFS MOS LOWS. WEDNESDAY...FLOW IS NEARLY 
ZONAL AT H5 WITH SHORTWAVE LIFT WELL TO SOUTH ALONG FRONT POSSIBLY 
BRUSHING FAR SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE SLIGHT POPS FOR SHOWERS INTRODUCED. 
OTHERWISE... PARTLY CLOUDY WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AROUND HIGH TO 
NORTH SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. 

FURTHER OUT (WED NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD...MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING 
SYNOPTIC SITUATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  IN ALL...THE LOCAL AREA WILL 
BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS 
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  SOUTH OF THIS FLOW...A CHAOTIC MIX OF LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND STALLED FRONTS WILL PERSIST.  AT THIS 
TIME...WILL CONTINUE TREND OF GOING FORECAST AND KEEP THIS FRONT 
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  WE BELIEVE THIS FRONTAL 
PLACEMENT WILL BE CRITICAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS 
HEAVY RAINS AND RESULTANT STREAM FLOODING WILL OCCUR WHERE EVER IT 
IS FOUND. THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO 
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH THURSDAY.  THE ETA 
AND GFS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC AND 
850MB BOUNDARIES BEYOND 60 HOURS.  WITH OTHER EXTENDED MODELS 
SUPPORTING BRINGING THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY NORTHWARD SLOWLY 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THURSDAY 
EVENING AND FRIDAY.  LATEST GFS SOLUTION HOLDS THE MAIN UPPER LOW 
NEAR DES MOINES THROUGH SATURDAY.  TO SAY THE LEAST...CONFIDENCE IS 
LOW FOR ANY MODEL IN THIS WEAK FLOW REGIME THE LATTER HALF OF THE 
WEEK.  THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN STILL EXISTS FOR A PORTION OF THE 
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT FURTHER REFINEMENT OF THE AREA MOST AT 
RISK WILL HAVE TO WAIT AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.   


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

SHEETS/ERVIN

$$













From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun 10 21:41:15 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 10 Jun 2003 15:41:15 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Weather Watch : 6@ 6/10/2003 3:41:15 PM
Message-ID: <200306102041.PAA00461@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


WWUS20 KWNS 102040
SEL6  
SPC WW 102040
ILZ000-MOZ000-110200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 506 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
340 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       CENTRAL ILLINOIS
       CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 95 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST OF JEFFERSON CITY
MISSOURI TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD ILLINOIS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 504...WW 505...


DISCUSSION...COMPLEX OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW INCREASING
OVER CENTRAL MO WILL CONTINUE ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING AS CAP
WEAKENS OVER E-CENTRAL MO/CENTRAL IL.  VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...WITH
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING SHOULD ACTIVITY BECOME MORE
SURFACE BASED/ORGANIZED ALONG A COMMON OUTFLOW.  CONVECTION MAY ALSO
FORM NEAR COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO NERN MO/NWRN IL ATTM.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...EVANS

;395,0923 410,0885 381,0885 371,0923; 
WWWW


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun 10 22:57:17 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Tue, 10 Jun 2003 16:57:17 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLK045 Keplerian data
Message-ID: <20030610210805.12130.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB KEP @ ARL $ARLK045
ARLK045 Keplerian data

ZCZC SK45
QST de W1AW =20
Keplerian Bulletin 45  ARLK045
>From ARRL Headquarters
Newington, CT  June 10, 2003
To all radio amateurs=20

SB KEP ARL ARLK045
ARLK045 Keplerian data

Thanks to Con, W5BWF, for the following Keplerian data. =20

Decode 2-line elsets with the following key:
1 AAAAAU 00  0  0 BBBBB.BBBBBBBB  .CCCCCCCC  00000-0  00000-0 0  DDDZ
2 AAAAA EEE.EEEE FFF.FFFF GGGGGGG HHH.HHHH III.IIII JJ.JJJJJJJJKKKKKZ
KEY: A-CATALOGNUM B-EPOCHTIME C-DECAY D-ELSETNUM E-INCLINATION F-RAAN
G-ECCENTRICITY H-ARGPERIGEE I-MNANOM J-MNMOTION K-ORBITNUM Z-CHECKSUM

AO-07
1 07530U 74089B   03160.70262246 -.00000029 +00000-0 +10000-3 0 02069
2 07530 101.7394 207.3571 0011958 223.4952 136.5177 12.53565572307111
AO-10
1 14129U 83058B   03160.15027585 -.00000096  00000-0  10000-3 0  9400
2 14129  26.1913 146.4045 5988228 358.8608   0.1543  2.05869596122340
UO-11
1 14781U 84021B   03161.57484708  .00000647  00000-0  96397-4 0  1717
2 14781  98.1331 136.5118 0008607 204.2950 155.7854 14.78287637 32784
UO-14
1 20437U 90005B   03160.72391855  .00000065  00000-0  40045-4 0  2519
2 20437  98.2525 198.9219 0009881 229.3804 130.6522 14.31273021698390
AO-16
1 20439U 90005D   03160.58051312 +.00000037 +00000-0 +29344-4 0 09184
2 20439 098.2961 211.1031 0010124 236.8089 123.2128 14.31513568698412
FO-20
1 20480U 90013C   03160.87439625 +.00000015 +00000-0 +96690-4 0 05054
2 20480 099.0652 102.8004 0540737 111.7810 254.1714 12.83333426624794
UO-22
1 21575U 91050B   03161.58023269  .00000148  00000-0  60923-4 0  8212
2 21575  98.1498 148.1540 0007792 146.7669 213.4011 14.39225829624399
AO-27
1 22825U 93061C   03161.57623807  .00000079  00000-0  47477-4 0  5778
2 22825  98.2599 185.5011 0007474 292.6635  67.3757 14.28980433505871
IO-26
1 22826U 93061D   03160.60877198 +.00000095 +00000-0 +53641-4 0 03671
2 22826 098.2621 185.7445 0008182 293.6704 066.3619 14.29206887505787
RS-15
1 23439U 94085A   03160.69075918 +.00000019 +00000-0 +17422-2 0 07202
2 23439 064.8149 221.7913 0145963 093.7173 268.0450 11.27549109348120
FO-29
1 24278U 96046B   03161.43646536  .00000061  00000-0  10185-3 0  5964
2 24278  98.5562 297.5678 0350391 286.7362  69.5606 13.52881853336434
ISS
1 25544U 98067A   03161.42435185  .00016930  00000-0  21605-3 0  1025
2 25544  51.6331  54.2216 0006588 236.0412 112.9236 15.59381862259947
SO-41
1 26545U 00057A   03161.23982846  .00000508  00000-0  86599-4 0  4817
2 26545  64.5592  48.6331 0042991 220.7537 139.0375 14.79228185145736
MO-46
1 26548U 00057D   03161.15425211  .00000615  00000-0  95792-4 0  4824
2 26548  64.5591  40.5212 0036237 222.1562 137.6770 14.81590291145890
AO-40
1 26609U 00072B   03160.56710202 -.00000257  00000-0  10000-3 0  3369
2 26609   8.8850  44.9413 7961587 182.8118 164.2061  1.25598290 11981
NO-44
1 26931U 01043C   03160.93765701 +.00000010 +00000-0 +36480-4 0 05045
2 26931 067.0473 328.8912 0006615 276.9332 083.1016 14.29171466088267
SO-50
1 27607U 02058C   03160.66689951  .00000255  00000-0  63998-4 0  1462
2 27607  64.5513 221.0483 0038068  58.7402 301.7412 14.70126060 25135

Keplerian bulletins are transmitted twice weekly from W1AW. =20
The next scheduled transmission of these data will be Friday,=20
June 13, 2003, at 2230z on Baudot and AMTOR.
NNNN
/EX



From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 11 00:35:49 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 10 Jun 2003 18:35:49 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Weather Watch : 7@ 6/10/2003 6:35:49 PM
Message-ID: <200306102336.SAA14914@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


WWUS20 KWNS 102335
SEL7  
SPC WW 102335
ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-110400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 507 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
635 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
       EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA
       NORTHWEST KENTUCKY

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY EVENING FROM 635 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
EVANSVILLE INDIANA TO 35 MILES WEST OF MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 504...WW 505...WW 506...


DISCUSSION...WELL-DEVELOPED MCS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN IL
TOWARD NW KY/SW INDIANA THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
IS GRADUALLY RECOVERING FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
AREA...AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT...WITH MORE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
INTENSE UPDRAFTS NEAR THE BOW ECHO COMMA HEAD.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.


...THOMPSON

;371,0870 372,0893 391,0893 390,0870; 

WWWW


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 11 02:03:13 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 10 Jun 2003 20:03:13 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Special Weather Statement : ILX@ 6/10/2003 8:03:13 PM
Message-ID: <200306110103.UAA00361@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


WWUS83 KILX 110101
SPSILX
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-061-110200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
801 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506 CANCELED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR KNOX...STARK...
MARSHALL...FULTON...PEORIA...WOODFORD...SCHUYLER...MASON...TAZEWELL
AND MCLEAN COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELED.

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA
THIS EVENING.

$$


BAK

WWWW


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 11 02:21:29 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 10 Jun 2003 20:21:29 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Special Weather Statement : ILX@ 6/10/2003 8:21:29 PM
Message-ID: <200306110122.UAA04062@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


WWUS83 KILX 110121 CCA
SPSILX
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-061-110200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
821 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

CORRECTED TO ADD ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TO WORDED CANCELATION

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506 CANCELED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR 
KNOX...STARK...MARSHALL...FULTON...PEORIA...WOODFORD...SCHUYLER...
MASON...TAZEWELL...MCLEAN...CASS...MENARD...LOGAN...
DE WITT... SCOTT...MORGAN...SANGAMON...CHRISTIAN...MACON AND SHELBY 
COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELED.

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA
THIS EVENING.

$$


BAK



WWWW


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 11 03:35:51 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 10 Jun 2003 21:35:51 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Special Weather Statement : ILX@ 6/10/2003 9:35:51 PM
Message-ID: <200306110236.VAA16518@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


WWUS83 KILX 110235
SPSILX
ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-110330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
935 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507 CANCELED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
CLARK...CUMBERLAND...EFFINGHAM...JASPER...CRAWFORD...CLAY...
RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELED.

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT.

$$
SMITH

WWWW


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 11 09:13:41 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 11 Jun 2003 03:13:41 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/11/2003 3:13:41 AM
Message-ID: <200306110814.DAA15177@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 110809
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

ZONAL FLOW NOW IN PLACE OVER U.S. STRONGEST FLOW IS LOCATED ALONG 
THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH HEIGHT FIELDS RELAXING FURTHER SOUTH.  AT 
THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH A 
COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SW THROUGH NRN IL AND NRN MO.  MID LEVEL 
S/W OVER THE SRN PLAINS WAS INTERACTING WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD 
OF FRONT RESULTING A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ACROSS SRN MO 
AND IL. 

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN 
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  COLD FRONT PROGGED TO STALL OVER 
CENTRAL/SRN MO BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRIDAY 
MORNING.  S/W ENERGY MOVING THE WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WILL SPIN UP SURFACE WAVES ALONG 
THE STALLED BOUNDARY.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL 
WAVE...MOVING IT THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MO AND SRN IL FROM LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  BY FRIDAY MORNING MODELS START TO 
DIVERGE AS THEY HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING S/W ENERGY MOVING THROUGH WEAK 
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.  GFS OBVIOUSLY HAVING 
FEEDBACK ISSUES BY 12Z FRIDAY.  UKMET/ETA LOOK MORE REASONABLE.  

FOR THE SHORT TERM THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS 
FOR TODAY.  LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER UPPER MS VALLEY WAS PUSHING 
STRATUS DECK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN WI EARLY THIS 
MORNING.  AS OF 07Z LEADING EDGE OF STRATUS WAS ALONG AN 
KAXA...KCCY...KEFT LINE.  IN ADDITION PATCHY SC HAS BEEN PERSITENT 
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SO FAR THIS MORNING...AND DEBRIS CI 
FROM MO CONVECTION HAS BEEN SKIRTING THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.  
EXPECT STRATUS TO SPREAD OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA 
THIS MORNING BEFORE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY.   STRONG 
JUNE SUN SHOULD THEN ERODE THE STRATUS DECK QUICKLY EARLY THIS 
AFTERNOON. REST OF CWA SHOULD SEE CU DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON 
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. FWC NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE FOR TODAYS MAXES.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE SLGT CHC WORDING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 
POSSIBILITY OF MO CONVECTION BRUSHING SOUTHERN MOST CWA.  

OTHER THAN LOW POPS SOUTH THIS EVENING WILL KEEP FCST DRY OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL LIMIT POPS TO WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE DAY AS TAIL OF 
NRN STREAM S/W SWINGS THROUGH. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY 
MORNING WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA IN RESPONSE 
TO SURFACE WAVES MOVING ALONG BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH.  FOR THE REST 
OF THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING OVER THE CWA WITH 
UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$
DLF














From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 11 11:33:18 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 11 Jun 2003 05:33:18 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/11/2003 5:33:18 AM
Message-ID: <200306111033.FAA06525@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 111031
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-121000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
531 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD...MOUNT
PLEASANT...GALESBURG LINE.  NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.   THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN SOUTHERN IOWA...WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

DLF





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 11 17:31:32 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 11 Jun 2003 11:31:32 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/11/2003 11:31:32 AM
Message-ID: <200306111633.LAA01556@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 111629
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1130 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS COMING OFF OF LAKE 
MICHIGAN AND AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA.  
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT IN THESE AREAS.  CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER 
THROUGH THE NIGHT HERE.

IN THE SOUTH...UPDATED MAX TEMPS A BIT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS 
INCLUDING MORE SUSNHINE THAN ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA. 

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

WOLF
















From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 11 21:22:36 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 11 Jun 2003 15:22:36 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/11/2003 3:22:36 PM
Message-ID: <200306112023.PAA23361@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 112013
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
312 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

NEARLY 20 DEGREE F TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS 
AFTERNOON DUE TO LAKE ENHANCED FRONT BISECTING AREA FROM SW TO NE. 
AT 18Z...STRATUS AND TEMPERATURES IN 60S WERE NORTH OF FRONT WHICH 
WAS FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF KCID...ARCHING SOUTH OF QUAD CITIES TO 
JUST NORTH OF KPIA. SOUTHEAST OF FRONT...AIRMASS MORE UNSTABLE WITH 
TEMPS IN 70S...DEW POINTS CLOSE TO 70 AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE. 
MEANWHILE...MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WAS 
NOT TOO FAR AWAY...FROM ABOUT KDTW THROUGH CENTRAL IL TO NORTHEAST 
MO MARKED BY TSRA IN W CENTRAL IL. FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON 
TRIED TO FIRE ALONG LAKE NORTHERN FRONT...BUT WERE SHORT LIVED. 
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TSRA CHANCES THROUGH 7 DAYS WITH 
MODELS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH CONTINUITY AND POOR AGREEMENT ON 
WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES TO IMPACT AREA THROUGHOUT FORECAST.

MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING 
ALONG MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK UPPER FORCING FROM INCREASING 
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND H5 LOW OVER S CENTRAL MO BRUSHING BY TO 
SOUTHEAST COMBINED WITH LI/S JUST BELOW ZERO IN FAR SOUTH AND 
AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES FRONT IN AREA...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE 
GOING FOR EVENING PERIOD. WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK SHOWING SOME SIGNS 
OF RETREATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINK IT SHOULD HANG ON IF NOT 
PUSH BACK SOUTHWEST SOME OVERNIGHT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM 
FALLING  MUCH OVER NW IL INTO EASTERN IA. 

ALL MODELS DEVELOP A SEPARATE VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL NEB 
BY THURSDAY MORNING THAT IS ALONG FAR SOUTHERN TAIL OF STRONGER WAVE 
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN MT. GFS IS STRONGEST WITH THIS 
FEATURE...AND BASED ON CONVECTION THAT FIRED LATE MORNING ALONG 
WY/CO BORDER LOOKS TO BE REAL...WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE 
FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS FEATURE WOULD PUSH INTO EASTERN IA LATE 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BASED ON PROGGED H85 FRONT LOCATION 
ACROSS NORTHERN MO...ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS GOING TO 
AFFECT FAR MAINLY SOUTH. KEPT LATE AFTERNOON CHANCES IN WEST...THEN 
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH. VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATED 
OVER AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST 
TRENDS OF MAIN SURFACE FRONT AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
INSTABILITY REMAINING TO SOUTH TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN 
STREAM...WHILE STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
REMAINS WELL TO NORTH TO LIMIT OUR TSRA CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRIMMED BACK TO FAR SOUTH. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR 
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND KEPT TSRA CHANCES GOING OVER ENTIRE 
AREA AS MODELS HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. WILL GO 
ALONG WITH GFS IDEA OF DEEP EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM GREAT 
LAKES TO EXCLUDE TSRA CHANCES SUNDAY. BEYOND...KEPT DRY WITH 
ZONAL H5 FLOW ACROSS CANADA AND CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING WELL TO SOUTH 
KEEPING GULF MOISTURE WELL TO SOUTH. 

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

SHEETS
$$




















From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun 10 22:57:17 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Tue, 10 Jun 2003 16:57:17 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLK045 Keplerian data
Message-ID: <20030610210805.12130.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB KEP @ ARL $ARLK045
ARLK045 Keplerian data

ZCZC SK45
QST de W1AW =20
Keplerian Bulletin 45  ARLK045
>From ARRL Headquarters
Newington, CT  June 10, 2003
To all radio amateurs=20

SB KEP ARL ARLK045
ARLK045 Keplerian data

Thanks to Con, W5BWF, for the following Keplerian data. =20

Decode 2-line elsets with the following key:
1 AAAAAU 00  0  0 BBBBB.BBBBBBBB  .CCCCCCCC  00000-0  00000-0 0  DDDZ
2 AAAAA EEE.EEEE FFF.FFFF GGGGGGG HHH.HHHH III.IIII JJ.JJJJJJJJKKKKKZ
KEY: A-CATALOGNUM B-EPOCHTIME C-DECAY D-ELSETNUM E-INCLINATION F-RAAN
G-ECCENTRICITY H-ARGPERIGEE I-MNANOM J-MNMOTION K-ORBITNUM Z-CHECKSUM

AO-07
1 07530U 74089B   03160.70262246 -.00000029 +00000-0 +10000-3 0 02069
2 07530 101.7394 207.3571 0011958 223.4952 136.5177 12.53565572307111
AO-10
1 14129U 83058B   03160.15027585 -.00000096  00000-0  10000-3 0  9400
2 14129  26.1913 146.4045 5988228 358.8608   0.1543  2.05869596122340
UO-11
1 14781U 84021B   03161.57484708  .00000647  00000-0  96397-4 0  1717
2 14781  98.1331 136.5118 0008607 204.2950 155.7854 14.78287637 32784
UO-14
1 20437U 90005B   03160.72391855  .00000065  00000-0  40045-4 0  2519
2 20437  98.2525 198.9219 0009881 229.3804 130.6522 14.31273021698390
AO-16
1 20439U 90005D   03160.58051312 +.00000037 +00000-0 +29344-4 0 09184
2 20439 098.2961 211.1031 0010124 236.8089 123.2128 14.31513568698412
FO-20
1 20480U 90013C   03160.87439625 +.00000015 +00000-0 +96690-4 0 05054
2 20480 099.0652 102.8004 0540737 111.7810 254.1714 12.83333426624794
UO-22
1 21575U 91050B   03161.58023269  .00000148  00000-0  60923-4 0  8212
2 21575  98.1498 148.1540 0007792 146.7669 213.4011 14.39225829624399
AO-27
1 22825U 93061C   03161.57623807  .00000079  00000-0  47477-4 0  5778
2 22825  98.2599 185.5011 0007474 292.6635  67.3757 14.28980433505871
IO-26
1 22826U 93061D   03160.60877198 +.00000095 +00000-0 +53641-4 0 03671
2 22826 098.2621 185.7445 0008182 293.6704 066.3619 14.29206887505787
RS-15
1 23439U 94085A   03160.69075918 +.00000019 +00000-0 +17422-2 0 07202
2 23439 064.8149 221.7913 0145963 093.7173 268.0450 11.27549109348120
FO-29
1 24278U 96046B   03161.43646536  .00000061  00000-0  10185-3 0  5964
2 24278  98.5562 297.5678 0350391 286.7362  69.5606 13.52881853336434
ISS
1 25544U 98067A   03161.42435185  .00016930  00000-0  21605-3 0  1025
2 25544  51.6331  54.2216 0006588 236.0412 112.9236 15.59381862259947
SO-41
1 26545U 00057A   03161.23982846  .00000508  00000-0  86599-4 0  4817
2 26545  64.5592  48.6331 0042991 220.7537 139.0375 14.79228185145736
MO-46
1 26548U 00057D   03161.15425211  .00000615  00000-0  95792-4 0  4824
2 26548  64.5591  40.5212 0036237 222.1562 137.6770 14.81590291145890
AO-40
1 26609U 00072B   03160.56710202 -.00000257  00000-0  10000-3 0  3369
2 26609   8.8850  44.9413 7961587 182.8118 164.2061  1.25598290 11981
NO-44
1 26931U 01043C   03160.93765701 +.00000010 +00000-0 +36480-4 0 05045
2 26931 067.0473 328.8912 0006615 276.9332 083.1016 14.29171466088267
SO-50
1 27607U 02058C   03160.66689951  .00000255  00000-0  63998-4 0  1462
2 27607  64.5513 221.0483 0038068  58.7402 301.7412 14.70126060 25135

Keplerian bulletins are transmitted twice weekly from W1AW. =20
The next scheduled transmission of these data will be Friday,=20
June 13, 2003, at 2230z on Baudot and AMTOR.
NNNN
/EX



From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun 12 09:34:03 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Thu, 12 Jun 2003 03:34:03 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/12/2003 3:34:03 AM
Message-ID: <200306120834.DAA04395@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 120830
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AND HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER SERN CANADA STILL PROVIDING EASTERLY FLOW OVER MID 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  FORECAST BUSTING STRATUS MAKING A RETURN TO 
CWA. AS OF 07Z STRATUS COVERED MOST OF CWA ALONG AND EAST OF THE 
RIVER. MORE STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING FURTHER W OVER CENTRAL IA.  MID 
LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME NEARLY ZONAL.  TSRA AHEAD OF NORTHERN PLAINS 
S/W HAS BEEN FALLING APART AS IT ENCOUNTERS LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER 
MN/IA.  SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH VERTICALY STACKED LOWER OH VALLEY 
SYSTEM WAS LIMITED TO SERN IL AND MOVING SLOWLY EAST.

MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC 
TRENDS BUT WERE HAVING TROUBLE WITH TIMING AND POSITION OF IMPULSES 
MOVING THROUGH WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF 
THE COUNTRY.  IN GENERAL...MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT FRONT CURRENTLY 
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL STAY SOUTH OF CWA.  
S/W ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A WEAK FRONT 
THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS 
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE IMPACT OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW 
AND STRATUS ON TEMPS TODAY.  FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO PCPN CHANCES 
INTO THE WEEKEND.   SINCE STRATUS IS ALREADY SPREADING BACK WEST 
OVER THE CWA...WILL ANTICIPATE A CLOUDY MORNING. WE SHOULD HAVE MORE 
OF A CHANCE OF BREAKING OUT OF THE STRATUS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY 
AFTERNOON THAN YDA.  CI ON TOP OF THE STRATUS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 
YDA WITH OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM MOVING EAST AND CONVECTION TO THE WEST 
DYING OUT EARLY THIS MORNING.  ALSO SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE MIXING 
IN THE WEST AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF ADVANCING SURFACE 
TROUGH.  WON'T GO AS COOL AS YDA'S HIGHS...BUT WILL PULL CURRENT 
FCST MAXES BACK ABOUT A CATEGORY...OR NEAR COOLER MAV NUMBERS. 
CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS POINTING TO LESS OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  BOTH ETA/GFS MOVE A WEAK SURFACE TROF THROUGH 
CWA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  HARD TO GET TO EXCITED ABOUT 
PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE BEST DYNAMICS WILL STAY NORTH AND LITTLE 
LOW LEVEL FORCING IS AVAILABLE WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW OVER REGION.  
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING 
WEST OF THE RIVER.  THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT LIMIT POPS TO SOUTHERN CWA 
WITH SURFACE WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.  
AFTER TONIGHT...HAVE LIMITED POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND TO 
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS.  MODELS ALL HOLD 
FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF CWA...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL 
SOLUTIONS REGARDING WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES...HATE TO PULL POPS 
ALTOGETHER.  DAY SHIFT CAN REASSES THE PCPN THREAT AND MAKE 
NECESSARY ADJUSTEMENTS.  HAVE ALSO KEPT TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COOLER 
MAV NUMBERS WITH EASTERLY FLOW REESTABLISHING ITSELF SATURDAY AND 
SUNDAY.  

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.


$$
DLF





















From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun 12 11:23:15 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Thu, 12 Jun 2003 05:23:15 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/12/2003 5:23:15 AM
Message-ID: <200306121023.FAA25749@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 121017
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-131000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
516 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WEST OF A LINE FROM MEMPHIS
MISSOURI THROUGH CEDAR RAPIDS TO MANCHESTER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.   THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA OR
WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND
REACH PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING A LONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 UNTIL SUNDAY.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE
MOIST...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

DLF





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun 12 21:48:05 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Thu, 12 Jun 2003 15:48:05 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/12/2003 3:48:05 PM
Message-ID: <200306122048.PAA13456@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 122033
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
333 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR TODAY...WITH STILL NO SIGN OF 
SUNSHINE AT 20Z AT DVN. THIS...ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CI FROM 
NUMEROUS UPSTREAM TSRA COMPLEXES HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN 70S.
MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM FEATURE IS VERY SLOW MOVING TSRA COMPLEX 
FROM SE NEB INTO NW MO AND SW IA THAT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVER PAST 6 
HOURS. THIS COMPLEX WAS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY SLOW MOVING H5 VORT MAX 
OVER NE KS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF SURFACE TROUGH FROM WESTERN 
MN INTO SE NEB AND STATIONARY FRONT FROM INDIANA TO NORTHEAST KS. 

SHORT TERM MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE E-SE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MO 
TONIGHT WITH MAIN FORCING TO ITS NORTHEAST IMPACTING MAINLY 
SOUTHWEST CWFA. ETA HAS SYSTEM BECOMING OPEN WAVE AND PASSING OVER 
FORECAST AREA...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...GFS SOLUTION WITH MORE 
CLOSED CIRCULATION STAYING TO SOUTH PREFERRED. THUS KEPT CHANCE POPS 
ACROSS SOUTH TONIGHT WITH PROXIMITY OF TSRA COMPLEX KEEPING CI THIN 
OVERCAST. A FEW BRIEF SHRA/TSRA OCCURRED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN 
NORTH CENTRAL IA ALONG EDGE OF WESTERN IA SURFACE THETA E RIDGE 
AXIS. THIS SLOW MOVING TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND NOT HAVE AS MUCH UPPER LEVEL 
SUPPORT SO WILL LEAVE OUT POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT KEEP FAR SOUTHEAST 
IN TSRA CHANCES FOR LINGERING CONVECTION IN PROXIMITY OF SLOWLY 
MOVING VORT TO SOUTH. 

HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO NORTH AND 
STALLED FRONT TO SOUTH PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS US OUT OF 
TYPICAL JUNE HUMIDITY. RESULTANT REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL NE-E 
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE WITH 
NIGHTTIME STRATUS HOPEFULLY LESS OF A PROBLEM AS SURFACE LOW OVER 
OHIO VALLEY PUSHES EASTWARD AND AIRMASS IN GREAT LAKES TRAJECTORY 
DRIES SOME. THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS CLOUDS WOULD 
HAVE BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...MUCH LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THIS 
WEEK.   

EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW KEEPS SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW 
MAINLY NORTH OF US/CAN BORDER. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS 
BROAD...SLOW MOVING UPPER VORTEX SHOWN TO DEVELOP OVER WEEKEND AND 
SPIN SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK IN WEAK FLOW ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY OR SOUTHERN PLAINS...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THIS PLACES 
FORECAST AREA UNDER WEAK ZONAL RIDGE AT SURFACE WITH EASTERLY FLOW 
AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CONSENSUS TOWARD THURSDAY 
AND FRIDAY...BUT BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A STRONG CANADIAN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH TO IMPACT AREA WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED 
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND HAVE INTRODUCED TSRA CHANCES. TEMPERATURES 
SHOULD CONTINUE BELOW CLIMO...ESPECIALLY WITH LOWS IN SUCH 
PATTERN...AND WENT CLOSE OR JUST BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE.   

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

SHEETS
$$


























From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 13 00:53:00 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Thu, 12 Jun 2003 18:53:00 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Monthly Illinois Section News Summary
Message-ID: <20030612132634.28514.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

As part of the regional bioterrorism exercise, the Lake County =
RACES/ARES and
amateurs from Kane County responded to the county health departments =
call for
help in both counties.  This was to provide communications for the week =
long
Topoff2 drill.  The scenario called for terrorists to attack with =
pneumonic
plague, which is a highly communicable and leathal bacteria disease that =
can
cause a number of symptoms such as fever, chest pains and vomiting as =
well as
other symptoms.  Both groups worked closely with their respective health
departments and those people who had organized the drill now know just =
what
the amateurs can do.  I do not have a list of hams from Lake County that
participated.  Those who worked on the drill from Kane County are:  =
W9ADR,
W9CEO, W9CZA, KC9UM, KB9YDD, AA9MW, KA9OBH, KC9CNM, N9OUN, K3AIW, N9YBP,
KC9DMR, and KB9TQB.

N9YRX reports amateur radio stations from Clark County, IL. participated =
in a
call to duty when storms knocked out phone lines to a nursing home in =
Vigo
County, IN.  They set up a station in the nursing home in order to call
another station outside the area of phone service being down. They were =
to
call 911 if needed for any of the residents.  This continued for 4 =
days--24/7.
 Cell phone service was also affected and not reliable.  The nursing =
home
allowed the hams to use a guest room for this purpose, and the event was
covered by local TV and newspaper.

The Winnebago County ARES group has been busy with two events in May.  =
On May
25th, hams provided communications for the 1st annual Rock-N-Run.  Those
helping out were:  N9MCS, KA9GNR, WB9MCZ, KC9ATR, KB9SKW, KA9BOD, N9OTC, =
and
N9SH.  On May 31st ARES hams also provided communications for the Boy =
Scout
Triple P event.  Those helping were:  KA9GNR, WB9MCZ, KB9YRW, KC9AVP, =
KB9ZBX,
KC9BVK, KC9BKU, and KC9DHX.

Members of the Schaumburg Amateur Radio Club participated in the Hike =
for Life
on Saturday May 10th.  Those hams involved were:  K9AND, K9EYT, K9HDX, =
KB9YUW,
KB9RGU, KB9RHR, KB9YUW, KB9YVC, N9DAV, N9FMK, N9MVO, NO9A, W9RVR, and =
KB9TAR.

I am pleased to report that the six Meter Club of Chicago had been =
officially
renewed as a Special Service Club.  Congratulations to this club for =
being a
positive image for amateur radio in their community and being willing to =
take
that extra step to become a SSC.  I was able to attend their hamfest on =
June 8
and enjoyed seeing some old friends and meeting new ones.

I also attended the Starved Rock Radio Club hamfest on June 1.  This =
hamfest
was well attended and I was able to meet and talk with many hams from =
around
the area.

The Kid's Day Operating Event will be June 21 at 1800 to 2400.  This =
event is
intended to encourage young people, licensed or not to enjoy amateur =
radio.=20
This event can give young people on-the-air experience and encourage =
them to
persue obtaining a radio license in the future.  Kid's Day takes place =
in
January and June each year.

Don't forget to check-out the KARSFEST 2003 on July 6th at the Will =
County
Fairgrounds, Peotone, IL.  E-mail questions to K9IOC at =
karsfest@yahoo.com

May traffic:  KA9HRO-10, PSHR 85; WA9SLT-23; W9HLX-41; W9FIF-7; N0GZ-6;
KA9IMX-10; NC9T-8; WD9F-44, PSHR 100, WB9TVD-35.  ISN report for =
May--QNI 212,
QTC 69, Sessions 30.  W9VEY Memorial Net report for May:  6 pieces of =
traffic
and 191 checkins.


--------------------------------------------------------------------
ARRL Illinois Section
Section Manager: Sharon Harlan, N9SH
n9sh@arrl.org
--------------------------------------------------------------------
This message is being sent to you via the ARRL Members Only Web site.
If you do not want to receive further messages, go to the site at:
http://www.arrl.org/members-only/memdata.html?modify=3D1
Log in with your username and password and change your email options.
Unchecking the "Division/Section notices" box will prevent messages
such as this one from being sent to you.
-- webmaster@arrl.org


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 13 00:53:02 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Thu, 12 Jun 2003 18:53:02 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLB039 IARU team on the job at WRC-03
Message-ID: <20030612153055.12602.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB QST @ ARL $ARLB039
ARLB039 IARU team on the job at WRC-03

ZCZC AG39
QST de W1AW =20
ARRL Bulletin 39  ARLB039
>From ARRL Headquarters =20
Newington CT  June 12, 2003
To all radio amateurs=20

SB QST ARL ARLB039
ARLB039 IARU team on the job at WRC-03

The International Telecommunication Union's (ITU) World
Radiocommunication Conference 2003 got under way June 9 at the
Geneva International Conference Center adjacent to ITU Headquarters.
More than 2600 delegates and other participants are expected to
attend the four-week conference. Dr Veena Rawat of Canada was
elected Chairman of the Conference by acclamation.

The core IARU team consists includes IARU President Larry Price,
W4RA, and IARU Secretary David Sumner, K1ZZ. ARRL staff members Paul
Rinaldo, W4RI, and Jon Siverling, WB3ERA, are on the official US
delegation.
=20
The conference will try to complete work on more than 40 agenda
items. Three are especially important to Amateur Radio: Realignment
of 7 MHz allocations, revision of the regulations governing the
amateur and amateur-satellite services, and consideration of an
allocation for satellite-borne synthetic aperture radars (SARs) in
the 70-cm band.

Except for SARs, the critical agenda items for Amateur Radio are all
in a committee chaired by Germany's Eberhard George, DL7IH.
NNNN
/EX




From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 13 00:53:09 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Thu, 12 Jun 2003 18:53:09 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLD024 DX news
Message-ID: <20030612204051.28304.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB DX @ ARL $ARLD024
ARLD024 DX news

ZCZC AE24
QST de W1AW =20
DX Bulletin 24  ARLD024
>From ARRL Headquarters =20
Newington CT  June 12, 2003
To all radio amateurs  =20

SB DX ARL ARLD024
ARLD024 DX news

This week's bulletin was made possible with information provided by
the OPDX Bulletin, The Daily DX, 425DXnews, DXNL, WA7BNM and Contest
Corral from QST.  Thanks to all.

ITU HQ, 4UxxITU.  ITU headquarter station 4U1ITU may be active
during the 2003 World Radiocommunication Conference meetings.
Special callsign 4U1WRC is active from here as well.  For either
callsign, QSL via operators' instructions.

TIMOR-LESTE, 4W.  Thor, 4W3DX has been QRV using CW on 20 meters
between 1200 and 1230z.  QSL via TF3MM.
              =20
CROATIA, 9A.  Special event call 9A0PAX is active until June 30 to
celebrate the pastoral visit of Pope John Paul II.  QSL via 9A7K.

GERMANY, DL.  Volker, DL1WH is active as DF0MF from the Lightship
Amrumbank, ARLHS FED-012, in Emden until June 17.  QSL via DL1BIZ.

KYRGYZSTAN, EX.  Valery, EX0V has been QRV using RTTY on 20 meters
around 0000z.  QSL via N6FF.

FRANCE, F.  Jacques, F6HMJ and Andre, F6AOI will be active as TM3OR
from Ile d'Or, IOTA EU-070, from June 13 to 15.  QSL via F6HMJ.

OGASAWARA, JD1.  To commemorate the islands' reversion to Japanese
control, special event station JD1YAB is QRV on 80 to 2 meters using
CW, SSB, RTTY and SSTV.  This includes activity on the AO-10 and
UO-14 satellites.  QSL via JA1MRM.

WAKE ISLAND, KH9.  Chuck, KH9/N4BQW will be here for about 5 weeks.
He has been QRV on 20 meters around 1200z.  QSL via KB6NAN.
          =20
NORWAY, LA.  Ulla, LA/DF6QP and Walter, LA/DL8JS are QRV active from
the Lofoten and Vesteralen Islands, IOTA EU-076 and EU-033,
respectively, until June 20.  They are normally active on 20 meters
during their evening hours.  QSL via operators' instructions.

PAPUA NEW GUINEA, P2.  P29KM has been QRV on 12 meters around 1020
to 1100z and 17 meters around 2100z.
                        =20
TUVALU, T2.  Mike, KM9D and Janet, KF4TUG are QRV as T21MY and T2YL,
respectively, from Funafuti, IOTA OC-015.  Activity is on all bands
using CW and SSB.  QSL both calls via OM2SA.
         =20
CANADA, VE.  Nenad, VE3EXY will be active as CK2/VE3EXY/p from
Orleans Island, IOTA NA-128, from June 13 to 15.  He will use CW,
SSB and mostly RTTY, with an entry on 20, 15 and 10 meters during
the ANARTS RTTY contest. QSL to home call.
         =20
LAOS, XW.  Champ, E21EIC, is QRV as XW1IC until June 27.  He has
been active on 6 meters around 1000 to 1700z.  He has also been
active on 20 meters using CW and SSB and 17 meters using RTTY.  QSL
to home call.

ASCENSION ISLAND, ZD8.  ZD8DB has been QRV using RTTY on 15 meters
around 1700 to 1800z and then around 2100z.

THIS WEEKEND ON THE RADIO.  The ARRL June VHF QSO Party, Portugal
Day Contest, ANARTS WW RTTY Contest, WW South America CW Contest and
the Asia-Pacific SSB Sprint are all scheduled for this weekend.
Please see June QST, page 95 and the ARRL and WA7BNM contest
websites for details.
NNNN
/EX




From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 13 03:46:20 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Thu, 12 Jun 2003 21:46:20 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/12/2003 9:46:20 PM
Message-ID: <200306130246.VAA22090@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 130245 AAA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
940 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

...UPDATED ZONE DISCUSSION...

DESPITE LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS...AREA TEMPERATURE AND DEW-POINT SPREADS
AT 9 PM RUNNING 4 TO 6 DEGREES...COMBINE THIS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
NEUTRAL (OR LITTLE FORCING)...LOCAL AREAS OF FOG CRITERIA MET. BEST
ESTIMATE IS FOG TO BECOME NOTICEABLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM.  THEN MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD SUNRISE.  SHOULD
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 7 AND 9 DEPENDING ON DEPTH.

HAVE UPDATED ZONES ACCORDINGLY AND LOWERED POPS TONIGHT FAR SOUTH AS
PRECIPITATION THERE WEAKENS.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

NICHOLS





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 13 10:49:33 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Fri, 13 Jun 2003 04:49:33 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/13/2003 4:49:33 AM
Message-ID: <200306130949.EAA26491@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 130946
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
435 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

SHOWERS PIVOTING NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND UPPER LOW/VORT ACRS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING...BEFORE FEATURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL LEAVE OUT
STORM WORDING FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT RUMBLE OF THUNDER
IN THOSE AREAS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW UP TO H8 MB TO TRY AND
ADVECT LAKE ENHANCED STRATUS TOWARD THE CWA AGAIN THROUGH MIDDAY...
BUT UPSTREAM AREAL COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR FORMATION INTO THE
LOCAL AREA OF CONCERN NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT AS PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY H85 FLOW WILL
ALSO TRY AND BRING HIGHER H85-H7 LMRHS DOWN FROM WI AS DAY
PROGRESSES...BUT FEEL THIS DECK TO ERODE AS IT TRIES TO MAKE HEADWAY
SOUTH INTO SUBSIDENCE. ANYWAY...ENOUGH ONGOING MID DECK AND CI OVER
THE CWA OFF MO ACTIVITY...AND WITH LLVL STRATUS POTENTIAL...TO
WARRANT MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING WORDING.

AS DAY PROGRESSES...MUCH OF CWA SHOULD BREAK OUT TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE HEATING WITH SOME EVENTUAL INSOLATION...TO
MAKE FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE LOW TO MID LEVEL COLUMN BY THIS AFTERNOON.
W/V IMAGERY INDICATING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER EASTERN ND AND
WESTERN ONTARIO ATTM. BULK OF THIS FEATURE WILL LOOK TO SHEAR DOWN
ACRS MN AND WI...BUT COULD HAVE ENOUGH TRAILING LOBE IMPACT TO SET
OFF SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY ON.
UKMET AND AVN SUGGEST THIS...WHILE ETA/META DRY THIS AFTERNOON
BANKING ON DEEP COLUMN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING WAVE THATS CURRENTLY
OVER MO. FCST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST DECENT CAPPING INVERSION
DEVELOPING AROUND H65 MB AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT AT AROUND 18Z
CAP IS STILL WEAK AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S. WITH
SOME SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER
70S...IF NOT THE LOWER 80S ACRS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. FEEL WARMING POTENTIAL IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POP-UP TYPE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
2/3'S OF THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SOME SPOTTY
ACTIVITY MAY FORM IN THE NORTHWEST SOONER THAN THAT...AS WEAK SFC
TROUGH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RIBBON SAGS ACRS THAT AREA FIRST.
FEATURE WILL LOOK TO EVENTUALLY WASH OUT TODAY OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW SIGNALS ARRIVAL OF A PORTION OF
NORTHERN PLAINS SFC RIDGE.

SOME CLEARING WITH RIDGE AND LIGHT NORTH WIND TONIGHT...MAY BE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THAN CURRENT SITUATION...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW AS UNSURE OF HOW WIDESPREAD ZONE
MENTIONABLE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE AT THIS POINT.

RIDGE AXIS TO MAKE FOR A FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM SATURDAY...EVEN
WITH ONGOING NORTH BREEZE. MIXING POTENTIAL OF PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILE SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD MAKE OR BREACH THE 80 DEGREE
MARK.

NO CHANGE TO LONGER RANGE(SUNDAY ON)...


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

12





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 13 12:09:42 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Fri, 13 Jun 2003 06:09:42 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/13/2003 6:09:42 AM
Message-ID: <200306131109.GAA12425@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 131107
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-141000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
600 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AFFECT WESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI THROUGH 9 AM. THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT RATES OF AN INCH AND A HALF AN
HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE MORNING AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS...
WILL CONTINUE IN FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH 830 AM BEFORE IT
STARTS TO MIX OUT. AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF
MORRISON IN WHITESIDE COUNTY WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SOME DENSE
FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN...WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR TODAY.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR A BETTER CHANCE. THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...TO
ALMOST ISOLATED IN NATURE. IF ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES...THEY WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT MAY KICK UP SOME THUNDERSTORMS.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

$$

12





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 13 17:05:30 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Wayne K9DI)
Date: Fri, 13 Jun 2003 16:05:30 +0000
Subject: [LeArc] LEARC June Meeting information
Message-ID: <20030613160530.GA9367@robinton>

		Hi folks,
 	Wayne K9DI es Sequoia (Ret.) here.  We had a fairly busy and
productive meeting on Tuesday 10 June 2003.  I just wanted to send
this out to bring those that could not make the meeting up to speed on
some things...:)
 	The club voted to have our technicians (Rich Sample N9EWQ
and Joe Rossmiller AG9Y) look over the 147.060+ machine to
determine if it is feasible to keep patching it up (I understand it is over
30 years old and parts are hard to get as Motorola quit supporting
Mycors several years ago), or would bringing in a new repeater be
more practical to allow LEARC members to perform public service 
duties better. Tony Coniglio KB9NAB mentioned that if a new repeater is
warranted that he can approach the McDonough County Board, the
City of Macomb and WIU about possible help with funding.  If I
remember right a new repeater will cost in the range of $4,000.00 to
$5,000.00.  In checking the May meetings minutes, Tony KB9NAB
mentioned that the Eagles club has offered the possibility of financial
support for a new repeater as well.
  	This motion was NOT a commentary of the fine work Rich
N9EWQ has been doing keeping the 147.060+ machine going, but as
was pointed out we can not keep putting patches on patches, and
other counties and communities rely on us for advance warning
during severe weather.
    	I would like to interject here and give a hearty "Well Done" to
our storm spotter team! They did a bang up job of carrying on when
the 147.060+ machine went down during the severe weather on 10
May, 2003!!
 	Another motion was passed stating that a simplex net could be
called on the 147.060 machine's output frequency after the regular
Sunday net at least once a month and at the discretion of the Net
Control Station.  The reasoning behind this is to give LEARC members
practice in directed simplex nets and relaying traffic if the repeater is
knocked out.  It was also suggested that it might be a good idea for an
NCS to call a simplex net from the radar room at WIU to ascertain the
gaps in simplex coverage from there before severe weather hits.
	I gave a short report on the scouting trip I had made to the
Lakeview Nature Center to scope it out as a possible Field Day site.
The site looks interesting.  I also called for a sighted volunteer to go
out there with me to help ascertain the length's of feedline needed to
connect our antenna's to the operating position inside the Nature
Center's basement.  Feedline, and operators are going to be our
biggest challenge again this year.  We will have a couple of guest
operators coming to LEARC's Field Day efforts this year, Tom
McMahan KF9HL and Leader Dog Shadow of Piper City, IL, will be
visiting with us again this year (Tom had to retire Bonsi the Leader
Dog he had with him during FD 2002), and from Plano Iowa Rob Matherly
W0JRM will also be joining us. I'll also attempt to get ahold of Dave 
Gill K9FHX the son of Chuck Gill W9SSP (SK) as he has expressed an
interest in operating with us using his Dad's old call.  Don Johnson
KA9SQB will be heading up LEARC's Heritage Days Parade
communications support, which will coincide with LEARC's Field Day
effort again.  If you can help with parade communications please contact 
Don KA9SQB.
 	I also announced that 19 June, 2003 (which will mark 3 years,
1 month and nine days that Sequoia and I have worked together) will be 
Sequoia's last day on active duty as he can no longer handle guidework 
and that he will be adopted by a local family where he will be able to 
just be a pet and a friend to a disabled teenager.  Due to Sequoia's 
retirement.  I will not be able to attend LEARC's August 2003 meeting, 
as I will be attending training at Leader Dogs for the Blind of 
Rochester Michigan to train with a successor dog.  Also, I will not be 
seeking re-election to the post of LEARC President, or any post for that matter,
so don't try to pull any fast ones while I'm gone guys :) :)
	A couple of things forgotten at the June meeting were:
	a.) planning for LEARC's annual picnic 8 July, 2003.
	b.) election of officers.
	I'll talk to Pam Johnson about perhaps using the picnic area
out at Lakeview nature center for our July picnic. LEARC will provide
drinks and attendees are asked to bring a dish to pass and their own
table service.  The club might also want to consider starting at 1800 
instead of our usual 1900 start time.
	The election of officers was postponed last year due to there
not being a quorum at the 2002 LEARC picnic, so come on out.
Another possibility would be to just wait until August to elect the new
slate of officers.
	If you have any questions or comments please feel free to call
me at 309-833-2357 or email me at k9di@k9di.org
73
de
Wayne K9DI
-- 
		   Sincerely and Respectfully Yours


Wayne M. Scace           |  Come on out and join the fun of Field Day.
ARS K9DI                 |  28-29 June 2003 1800-1600z (1300-1100). 
LICQ 315313              |  Please listen for W9SSP (LEARC)  
k9di@NOSPAMk9di.org      |  "QRP: Where the FUN is!!"
Proud Flying Piggie #217 |  "Let's Get Radioactive People!!!"
	

From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 13 21:47:17 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Tony Coniglio)
Date: Fri, 13 Jun 2003 15:47:17 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] FCC Notice Of Inquiry for BPL
Message-ID: <000d01c331ec$faca2320$35060640@yourm5d4u9r2uv>

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "ARRL Web site" <memberlist@www.arrl.org>
To: <coniglio@macomb.com>
Cc: <Subscribed ARRL Members:>
Sent: Friday, June 13, 2003 2:00 PM
Subject: FCC Notice Of Inquiry for BPL


> 13 JUN, 2003 - 1325 CDT
> 
> Sometime within the next couple of days, perhaps as early as this
> evening, my next Central Division newsletter will be posted on the
> division web site.  This newsletter covers my views on the FCC's idea of
> putting broadband digital RF signals on power lines.  There are also
> links to the section of the ARRL web site where you can find detailed
> technical discussion and reports on this proposal.  
> 
> I urge you to learn about what the FCC is now "cheerleading" as the next
> great advance in high-speed internet connectivity.  It is the GREATEST
> THREAT EVER to amateur radio and the other licensed services that use
> the 2 to 80 MHz RF spectrum.
> 
> After you have taken the time to digest this information, there is a
> link to the FCC's Electronic Comments Filing System (ECFS).  Go to this
> site and read how to submit comments... and then please do so.
> 
> 73 - Dick Isely, W9GIG
>      Central Division Director
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> ARRL Central Division
> Director: George Isely, W9GIG
> w9gig@arrl.org
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> This message is being sent to you via the ARRL Members Only Web site.
> If you do not want to receive further messages, go to the site at:
> http://www.arrl.org/members-only/memdata.html?modify=1
> Log in with your username and password and change your email options.
> Unchecking the "Division/Section notices" box will prevent messages
> such as this one from being sent to you.
> -- webmaster@arrl.org

From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 13 22:16:46 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Fri, 13 Jun 2003 16:16:46 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/13/2003 4:16:46 PM
Message-ID: <200306132116.QAA29600@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 132101
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
400 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING SOME NICE LITTLE SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE 
CWA...GENERALLY WEST OF I-380.  THESE STORMS HAVE ONLY BEEN PUTTING 
OUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN...AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO GET 
ANY STRONGER.  THEY SHOULD ALSO FALL APART IN THE 6 TO 8 PM TIME 
FRAME...AS THE DIURNAL HEATING THAT TRIGGERED THEM ON A LITTLE 
CONVERGENCE LINE SHUTS OFF.  UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE LOOKING VERY 
SUMMERLIKE...WITH WEAK/SMALL FEATURES...AND NOT A DECENT HEIGHT 
RISE/FALL COUPLET ON THE CHART.  

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST INCLUDES PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND INTO 
THE WEEKEND.

12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL...AND ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
HAVE GONE MAINLY WITH A BLEND OF FORECAST MODELS.

HAVE ALREADY MENTIONED THESE LITTLE EVENING POPCORN 
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH TRIGGERED OFF A LITTLE CONVERGENCE LINE RIGHT 
WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE...AND WERE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 
LITTLE VORT MAX THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY EASING EAST ACROSS THE AREA 
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.  THIS VORT MAX SHOULD MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND 
LEAVE THE AREA HIGH AND DRY FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE 
SURPRISED TO SEE MORE THUNDERSTORMS FIRE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  TONIGHT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO CLEAR 
OUT REASONABLY WELL...AND WITH FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS SOME FOG IS 
LIKELY TO APPEAR.  THIS MORNING A NUMBER OF SITES DROPPED TO 2 TO 3 
MILES.  FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED THAT VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT LOWER ANY 
MORE THAN THEY DID THIS MORNING...AND DOES NOT QUITE WARRANT 
MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED 
DURING THE EVENING...AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE ACTUAL CLEARING THIS 
EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FEATURES ARE VERY SUMMER LIKE...WITH JUST ONE 
WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OR 
LOWER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUPPORT PUTTING IN ANY POPS...BUT WILL PUT IN 
MORE CLOUDS FOR THAT PERIOD.  OTHERWISE....WILL BE GOING WITH LIGHT 
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW...SO NO GREAT ADVECTION OR RAINFALL TO 
SUPPORT GOING SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE OR BELOW GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD 
ON THE MAIN FEATURES...BUT SOME TIMING/LOCATION DISAGREEMENTS ON 
SMALLER FEATURES THAT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR ANY 
PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT TO 
MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDENSDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING IN A CHANCE OF 
PRECIP FOR THOSE DAYS.  GFS FROM 00Z IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THIS 
SOLUTION...WITH UKMET AND EUROPEAN ONLY A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OR 
SLOWER THAN THE GFS SOLUTION.  HAVE DECIDED TO STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO 
THE DRY GFS SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY.   TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TEMPS 
PRETTY WARM WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN 
GUIDANCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW DEPRESSING 
TEMPS PRETTY WELL WHICH IS NOT TYPICALLY HANDLED WELL BY MODELS.  

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA/LE







From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 13 23:18:21 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Fri, 13 Jun 2003 17:18:21 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLK046 Keplerian data
Message-ID: <20030613210127.9487.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB KEP @ ARL $ARLK046
ARLK046 Keplerian data

ZCZC SK46
QST de W1AW =20
Keplerian Bulletin 46  ARLK046
>From ARRL Headquarters
Newington, CT  June 13, 2003
To all radio amateurs=20

SB KEP ARL ARLK046
ARLK046 Keplerian data

Thanks to Con, W5BWF, for the following Keplerian data. =20

Decode 2-line elsets with the following key:
1 AAAAAU 00  0  0 BBBBB.BBBBBBBB  .CCCCCCCC  00000-0  00000-0 0  DDDZ
2 AAAAA EEE.EEEE FFF.FFFF GGGGGGG HHH.HHHH III.IIII JJ.JJJJJJJJKKKKKZ
KEY: A-CATALOGNUM B-EPOCHTIME C-DECAY D-ELSETNUM E-INCLINATION F-RAAN
G-ECCENTRICITY H-ARGPERIGEE I-MNANOM J-MNMOTION K-ORBITNUM Z-CHECKSUM

AO-07
1 07530U 74089B   03163.65546850 -.00000029 +00000-0 +10000-3 0 01881
2 07530 101.7395 210.2771 0011911 217.9759 142.0469 12.53565601307488
AO-10
1 14129U 83058B   03163.06452354 -.00000106 +00000-0 +10000-3 0 09423
2 14129 026.1958 145.9463 5987614 359.6467 359.9611 02.05868684122402
UO-11
1 14781U 84021B   03163.94388059 +.00000740 +00000-0 +10926-3 0 01764
2 14781 098.1331 138.9046 0008729 196.5266 163.5663 14.78291815033136
UO-14
1 20437U 90005B   03163.66006504  .00000067  00000-0  40694-4 0  2533
2 20437  98.2535 201.7134 0009908 219.9292 140.1179 14.31273587698814
AO-16
1 20439U 90005D   03164.21512691  .00000079  00000-0  45272-4 0  9207
2 20439  98.2969 214.5790 0010209 225.3116 134.7231 14.31514748698937
FO-20
1 20480U 90013C   03163.91489210 -.00000008  00000-0  45425-4 0  5005
2 20480  99.0656 105.2742 0540822 104.9150 261.2461 12.83333409625183
UO-22
1 21575U 91050B   03163.94399249 +.00000142 +00000-0 +58858-4 0 08283
2 21575 098.1501 150.4020 0007857 139.8235 220.3536 14.39226611624734
AO-27
1 22825U 93061C   03163.95692612 +.00000069 +00000-0 +43490-4 0 05817
2 22825 098.2601 187.7573 0007447 285.1115 074.9244 14.28980865506215
IO-26
1 22826U 93061D   03164.10922815  .00000097  00000-0  54339-4 0  3685
2 22826  98.2625 189.0646 0008094 281.6298  78.3974 14.29207796506281
RS-15
1 23439U 94085A   03163.26282755 -.00000039 +00000-0 +10529-3 0 07088
2 23439 064.8148 217.6325 0145974 093.2230 268.5402 11.27548611348412
FO-29
1 24278U 96046B   03163.95093273 +.00000039 +00000-0 +79522-4 0 05996
2 24278 098.5566 299.7453 0350375 280.2034 075.9772 13.52882057336779
ISS
1 25544U 98067A   03164.43832176  .00045596  00000-0  56589-3 0  1131
2 25544  51.6333  39.0752 0006517 252.0114 108.6091 15.59528070260424
SO-41
1 26545U 00057A   03163.94408168 +.00000563 +00000-0 +93761-4 0 04840
2 26545 064.5603 040.3191 0042655 220.3633 139.4254 14.79232026146147
MO-46
1 26548U 00057D   03163.65169826  .00000766  00000-0  11470-3 0  4847
2 26548  64.5587  32.8143 0036072 221.7192 138.1176 14.81595109146264
AO-40
1 26609U 00072B   03160.56710202 -.00000257  00000-0  10000-3 0  3369
2 26609   8.8850  44.9413 7961587 182.8118 164.2061  1.25598290 11981
NO-44
1 26931U 01043C   03164.22678270  .00000096  00000-0  70125-4 0  4974
2 26931  67.0471 320.4230 0006702 276.0844  83.9503 14.29172931 88731
SO-50
1 27607U 02058C   03164.20418961  .00000448  00000-0  95527-4 0  1486
2 27607  64.5509 210.3279 0038242  57.2374 303.2403 14.70130642 25655

Keplerian bulletins are transmitted twice weekly from W1AW. =20
The next scheduled transmission of these data will be Tuesday,=20
June 17, 2003, at 2230z on Baudot and AMTOR.
NNNN
/EX



From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 13 23:18:11 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Fri, 13 Jun 2003 17:18:11 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA
Message-ID: <20030613142443.26980.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024
ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP24
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24  ARLP024
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 13, 2003
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP024
ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

Geomagnetic disturbances continued this week, but at a lower level
than the previous seven days (our reporting week runs from Thursday
through the following Wednesday). The average daily planetary A
index for the week dropped to 21 from 37.1 the previous week. The
average daily sunspot number rose from 67.4 to 149.4, reaching a
peak of 207 on Tuesday, June 10. Solar flux increased as well, the
weekly average rising from 117.4 to 150.5. Solar flux peaked at
192.9 on Wednesday, June 11. Solar flux over the weekend is expected
to be 150, 140, 130 and 120 for Friday through Monday.

With all of the recent geomagnetic disturbances, there is hope for
HF operators with the predicted planetary A index of 12 for June 13
and June 16. This is only slightly unsettled, much better than the A
index of 20 to 30 we've seen recently. However, be aware that flares
can pop up and conditions can change, as it did recently on May 30,
which was forecast for so long to have quiet conditions. Now it
seems there was a coronal mass ejection that could hit earth on June
13, causing a rise in geomagnetic indices.

A couple of large sunspots were news this week, causing the rise in
sunspot numbers and some flares as well. A good view is Tuesday's
solar disk, seen at
http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/images2003/10jun03/midi512_blank.gif=
.

Notice the "10jun03" characters in that URL. You can change those to
11jun03, then 12jun03 and 13jun03, then click "back" with your
browser to display as a simple animation.

Check out Project Jove at http://radiojove.gsfc.nasa.gov/. Dick
Flagg, AH6NM and Jim Sky, KH6SKY built a spectrograph that scans
18-28 MHz, recording radio noise from the Sun and Jupiter. They are
about to release software that lets anyone view spectrograms in real
time from data streamed via the internet. Recently they observed a
solar burst during flare activity, and just prior to the burst you
can see HF signals present between 18-28 MHz. Right after the burst
is nothing, due to a radio blackout. The images were on
http://www.spaceweather.com yesterday, and unfortunately are now
gone. Perhaps by next week we can come up with a link to the images.

Bob Sluder, N0IS says he has a very simple 6 and 2-meter setup with
only a 2-meter loop and a 6-meter Halo in his attic. But on
Thursday, May 5 he heard stations from around North America on
2-meters and on 6-meters the North and South America openings lasted
24 hours. Bob writes, "So, bring on another BIG BLAST from the sun
and lets see what happens. Hooray for high K's. Too bad about those
high A numbers, but then, if you are on VHF, you would not care."

Going a little further back into May, Bill Cullen, WH6DQ who lives
3,500 feet up the side of Kilauea on Hawaii's Big Island reports
that on May 23 around 0100z he heard the 147.09 MHz repeater on
Catalina Island in California. He listened to a couple of California
stations converse, broke in, but wasn't copied, even though he could
trigger the repeater. He observes that the two California hams would
have been excited if they only knew where he was. So, if you were on
147.09 MHz in Southern California around 0100z on May 23 and heard a
not quite copy able station break in, it was Bill.

Rodney Vorndam, K9ROD wrote to say that last Saturday, June 7 was a
great day for him on 6-meters in Colorado. He made 25 contacts
across the south and central parts of the U.S., and one on 6-meters,
while running just 10-watts. He's noticed great 6-meter conditions
coinciding with large storm centers moving across the U.S. in the
summer.

Dan Jeswald, W4NTI also commented on large storm fronts, saying he
has good luck during the summer E-skip season aiming his 3-element
homebrew 6-meter Yagi at storms. On the same day K9ROD in Colorado
was having so much fun, W4NIT in Anniston Alabama was hearing
France, Italy and Portugal at S5-S7 on 6-meters. K9ROD wrote again
to say that Tuesday, June 10 was his best night on 6-meters ever.
The band was full and he made 26 contacts across the U.S.

The day prior, Monday June 9, Al Olcott, K7ICW in Nevada reported an
all day 6-meter opening that suddenly intensified. He noticed a lot
of QRM on broadcast television frequencies, and at 2319z he heard
W5HOT in Arkansas at S9. On 2-meters shortly after this he noticed
pandemonium. He made 11 W5 contacts in Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas
and Oklahoma. He tried 222 MHz, but got no response. He believes
there was a highly reflective ionospheric cloud in the E-layer
centered over DM83 on the Texas-New Mexico border.

Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA had some interesting insight regarding
trans-equatorial propagation during high geomagnetic activity,
mentioned in last week's bulletin. He writes, "There's been much
study in the area of how geomagnetic storms affect the ionosphere.
One piece of knowledge to come out of this is that all geomagnetic
storms are not equal, and thus the effect on the ionosphere can
vary."

He continues, "For gradually evolving storms, driven by slowly
increasing southward IMF, the low to mid-latitude ionosphere tends
toward an increase in ionization at night - sometimes up to a 50%
increase in foF2. So there really is an ionospheric basis for
enhanced north-south propagation. On the other hand, storms with an
initial compressive phase and rapidly evolving main phase tend to
deplete nighttime mid-latitude ionization." Thank you, Carl!

For more information on propagation and an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin see the Propagation page on the ARRL
Web site at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. You can
write to the author of this bulletin at k7ra@arrl.net.

Sunspot numbers for June 5 through 11 were 95, 98, 125, 167, 176,
207, and 178, with a mean of 149.4. 10.7 cm flux was 113.6, 125.6,
133.2, 153.4, 158.3, 176.5, and 192.9, with a mean of 150.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 13, 24, 27, 28, 27, and 15,
with a mean of 21.
NNNN
/EX



From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun 14 10:25:31 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sat, 14 Jun 2003 04:25:31 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/14/2003 4:25:31 AM
Message-ID: <200306140925.EAA27044@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 140921
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
410 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

TODAY WILL LOOK TO BE CONDITIONALLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT A
TOUCH WARMER. LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC FLOW TO CONTINUE TO TRY AND ADVECT
BIT DRIER DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOCAL AREA...BUT DRYING TO BE
MINIMAL WITH WEAK FLOW. LATEST MSAS AND SFC ANALYSIS INDICATE
LINGERING POOL OF HIGHER DPTS IN LOWER 60S IN VCNTY OF WEAK SFC
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE LYING TO THE LEE OF UPPER MIDWEST
ANTICYCLONE...FROM SOUTHWEST WI...AND ACRS THE WESTERN 2/3'S OF THE
DVN CWA. HIGHER DPT POOL SHOULD LINGER INTO TODAY ACRS THE AREA...AND
WITH AT LEAST FILTERED INSOLATION/HEATING...THE "UNSTABLE" STAGE
AGAIN WILL BE SET FOR SOME SPOTTY POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ETA PROBABLY OVERDOING IT...IT SUGGESTS THAT
CAPES WILL GROW TO WELL OVER 1K J/KG ACRS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY 18Z.
BUT AGAIN THE ETA/META DRY TODAY WHILE THE GFS/NGM/UKMET SUGGEST
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH UNSTABLE LOW TO MID LAYERS.

WITH A WEAK VORT COMPLEX NOTICEABLE ON W/V IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WANDERING EAST TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA...FEEL AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WORTHY TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BUILDING WARM
WEDGE/INVERSION AT AROUND THE H6 MB LEVEL WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE
IN CHECK AND SPOTTY TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE DURING THE EVENING...BUT BEFORE THEN WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO
HEAR ABOUT A HAILER WHEN COMING BACK ON SHIFT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY KEEP TEMPS ACRS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE
CWA IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...WHILE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. FEEL 82 TO 84 WILL BE ABUNDANT NUMBERS FOR
REPORTED HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM WEAK LAKE EFFECT FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW RIDGE-RIDER VORT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL DROP OVER NORTHERN MN AND WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONCEPTUALLY WITH CVA OFF THIS FEATURE BRUSHING THE
NORTHERN CWA...THERE MAY AGAIN BE A RISK OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
POP-UP CONVECTION OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ALL
MODELS ARE DRY HOWEVER...BUT WILL STILL GO AGAINST THEM AND
INTRODUCE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.

NO CHANGE TO LONGER RANGE...


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

12





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun 14 10:50:59 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sat, 14 Jun 2003 04:50:59 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/14/2003 4:50:59 AM
Message-ID: <200306140952.EAA01782@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 140947
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-151000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
447 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA 
TODAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME OF THESE STORMS 
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.  SEVERE STORMS ARE 
NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL ALLOW 
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN.  THE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD 
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS DURING 
THIS PERIOD IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

ERVIN

$$








From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun 14 10:51:04 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sat, 14 Jun 2003 04:51:04 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/14/2003 4:51:04 AM
Message-ID: <200306140952.EAA01721@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 140948
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-151000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
448 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA 
TODAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME OF THESE STORMS 
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.  SEVERE STORMS ARE 
NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL ALLOW 
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN.  THE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD 
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS DURING 
THIS PERIOD IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

ERVIN

$$









From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun 14 23:05:07 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sat, 14 Jun 2003 17:05:07 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/14/2003 5:05:07 PM
Message-ID: <200306142204.RAA21201@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 142156
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
456 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS WEAK SURFACE FLOW STILL COMING
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE CAPES OVER
FORECAST AREA CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.  THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE TWO-FOLD.
FIRST IS AN UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LAKE AFFECT WINDS THRU
AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY EAST...AND COMFORTABLY LOW DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. A
VIGOROUS VORT MAX IS STILL PROGGED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A WEAK 500MB LOW THAT SINKS OVER THE AREA. LACK OF MOISTURE...
AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL LIMIT CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT.  BEST
CHANCE MAY BE IN EVENING NORTH...ALTHOUGH EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO
MONDAY MORNING...DUE TO RELATIVELY SLOW SPEED OF VORT. THE 500MB LOW
WILL BECOME CLOSED AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTH MONDAY TO A POSITION OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL GETTING KICKED EAST
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A SURFACE TROF MOVES THRU. THIS
WILL KEEP THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS HIGHER SOUTHEAST PORTION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP STAYING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

WILL KEEP WITH GENERAL TREND ON FORECAST.  WILL TWEAK POPS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sun Jun 15 10:22:10 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sun, 15 Jun 2003 04:22:10 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/15/2003 4:22:10 AM
Message-ID: <200306150921.EAA10035@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 150915
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
405 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES FURTHER SOUTHEAST OVER THE GRT LKS...WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENT ZONE AND BIT HIGHER SFC DPT POOL...THAT HAS BEEN
THE SPAWNING GROUND FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS OF SPOTTY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN THE LOCAL AREA...WILL GET SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA. ZONE WILL LOOK TO LIE MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST IA AND THEN
EXTENDING SOUTH-WESTWARD. THUS BETTER CAPES AND INSTABILITIES DEVELOP
IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR BETTER CHANCE OF SPOTTY POP-UP
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF AREA OF CONCERN...MAINLY
ACRS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IA. BETTER DEEP CONVECTION INDICES SHIFT
OUT OF THE DVN CWA AND ACRS THESE AREAS TO THE WEST AS WELL. BUT FEEL
ACTIVITY POTENTIAL CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY
OF UNSTABLE LOW TO MID LEVELS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF THE
CWA(ESPECIALLY WESTERN HALF)...AND WARM WEDGE/INVERSION AT AROUND H6
MB AGAIN KEEPING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL IN CHECK. WITH
CONTINUING INFLUX OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ON DEEPENING LLVL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY BE SPARED OF
NUISANCE CONVECTION. BUT...VORT SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY OVER NORTHWEST
MN...IS SIMILARLY PROGGED BY SHORT RANGE MODELS TO DROP DOWN ACRS THE
MN/IA/WI TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. INCOMING CVA MAY SPAWN
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IN A HIT-AND MISS FASHION ACRS THE
NORTHERN THIRD(INCLUDING NORTHWEST IL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE FADING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. WITH SUNSHINE AND BIT
DRIER AIRMASS TO WARM...FEEL WIDESPREAD MID 80S ON TAP AGAIN FOR THE
AREA. SOME SPOTTY 87'S OR 88'S POSSIBLE ACRS THE WEST.

AS VORT SETTLES OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY MAY
KICK UP MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE SOUTH ON LEADING EDGE OF VORT
GRADIENT. THERMAL PROFILES WITH SLIGHT MODIFICATION FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SUGGEST MONDAY HIGH TEMPS TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN PROJECTED FOR TODAY.  ..12..

EXTENDED (WED-SAT)...
POTENTIAL FOR MCS TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF AREA LATE TUE NGT-WED. ECWMF
IS OUTLIER WITH FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND BRINGS FRONT THROUGH
DURING DAYTIME ON WED. 00Z RUNS OF UKMET...GFS AND MRF ALL HINTING
AT SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NGT-EARLY THU.
FLOW ALOFT FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IF GOOD COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO ACCELERATE THEN POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW TO SWEEP
THROUGH DAYTIME ON WED WITH IMPACTS BOTH TO POPS AND TEMPS.
CHC POPS LOOK GOOD ATTM...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEXT SEVERAL
SHIFTS FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADE INTO LIKELY CAT EITHER TUE NGT
OR WED. AS FOR MAXES WED...UNCERTAINTIES WITH CONVECTION DEBRIS AND
BOUNDARIES WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. HOWEVER...
THICKNESS WITH FULL SUN WOULD SUPPORT 85-90 DEGS. 00Z UKMET...GFS...
MRF AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THU DEPICTING MAIN FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
GFS AND MRF THOUGH HINT AT SECONDARY LAKE ENHANCED FRONT AND GENERATE
QPF ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS POPS
MENTIONED FOR THU AND SEE NO REASON TO REMOVE ATTM...AND WILL LET
LATER MODEL RUNS CLARIFY MESOSCALE FEATURES.   ..MWM..

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

12/MWM





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sun Jun 15 11:39:22 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sun, 15 Jun 2003 05:39:22 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/15/2003 5:39:22 AM
Message-ID: <200306151039.FAA21156@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 151037
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-161000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
537 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

ERVIN

$$





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sun Jun 15 20:30:36 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sun, 15 Jun 2003 14:30:36 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/15/2003 2:30:36 PM
Message-ID: <200306151931.OAA19144@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 151928
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
228 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CONFLUENT ZONE WITH HIGHER
CAPES HAS SHIFTED WEST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA.  LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OFF THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING PICTURE PERFECT EARLY SUMMER
AFTERNOON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOUR-FOLD.  FIRST IS THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON ON EDGE OF
CONFLUENT ZONE.  SECOND IS THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AND INTO MONDAY SOUTHEAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT
MAX.  THIRD IS CHANCE OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. FOURTH IS CHANCE OF
PRECIP THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROF TO OUR SOUTH.

THE SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.  MAY KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE ON ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.  MODELS VERY
NEGATIVE ON PRECIP OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...OTHER THAN VORT MAX.  LAKE MICHIGAN
INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE SITS ACROSS
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...KEEPING US IN EASTERLY FLOW.  DIFFUSE COLD
FRONT MOVES THRU FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.  TIMING IS SUCH THAT
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...
BUT WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING.  AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS AND MOVES
ACROSS AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP.  THE NEXT CHANCE
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

WILL KEEP CLOSE TO ONGOING FORECAST...WITH POSSIBLE REMOVAL OF
SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP FOR TONIGHT.  ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT AWFULLY LOW CHANCE.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun 16 10:42:20 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Mon, 16 Jun 2003 04:42:20 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/16/2003 4:42:20 AM
Message-ID: <200306160944.EAA15320@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 160934
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
415 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2003

WELL DEFINED VORT SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY DROPPING DOWN OVER WI ATTM...
WILL LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPIRAL DOWN ACRS NORTHERN IL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS MAIN FCST QUESTION IN NEAR TERM IS IF FEATURE WILL
BE ABLE TO KICK UP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OFF GRT LKS RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY ADVECT INTO THE CWA TODAY...WITH MSAS LOOP
ALREADY INDICATING LOW TO MID 60 SFC DPT POOL HAS BEEN SHUNTED TO
WESTERN IA. BEST CAPES AND DEEP CONVECTION INDICES WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ALSO TO DEVELOP WELL TO THE WEST OVER WESTERN IA TODAY...
AND THUS FEEL INCOMING CVA WITH UPPER WAVE PROBABLY WON'T PRODUCE
PRECIP CHANCE WORTH MENTIONING IN THE ZONES. STILL WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF AN ISOLATED POP-UP STORM OCCURS SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN RISK RIGHT NOW APPEARS
TOO LITTLE TO MENTION.

WITH ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND APPROPRIATE MIXING IN STEEP LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INDICATED ONCE AGAIN ON FCST SOUNDINGS...SEE NO
REASON NOT TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND WIDESPREAD MID 80S FOR HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH RIDGE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN THERMAL PARAMETERS...ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY MID 80 DAY
SEEMS TO BE ON TAP.

LOOKING TO UPPER FEATURES...RIDGE IS SIMILARLY PROGGED BY SHORT
RANGE MODELS TO SHARPEN OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TUE NIGHT.
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES VORT COMPLEX WILL THEN LOOK TO SHEAR DOWN IN
AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND HEAD FOR THE
NORTHERN GRT LKS ON WED. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LEAD VORT PIECES TO
SWIPE DOWN ACRS THE NORTHERN CWA LATER TUE NIGHT...AND 65 KT H25 SUB
JETLET STREAKING OVER WI TO INDUCE SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENT
INFLUENCE OVER NORTHEAST IA. ETA/ META SUGGEST EVEN SOME POS OMEGAS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AS TUES NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH THESE
FACTORS...WILL INTRODUCE LATE NIGHT POPS ACRS THE NORTHWEST CWA WITH
POTENTIAL OF UPSTREAM ACTIVITY FROM APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
BLEED INTO THE CWA.  ..12..

ON WED ECMWF REMAINS OUTLIER WITH QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT
NORTHERN END OF FRONT TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE BEING CLOSER TO MAIN
WESTERLIES. CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
LIMIT PCPN TO MAINLY POST FRONTAL. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX APPEARS
LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF COHERENT MID LEVEL TRIGGER...EVEN THOUGH MID
LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING A BIT. TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
CHALLENGING AND DEPENDENT ON 1) EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND 2)
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND/OR MORE
SUNSHINE WOULD SPELL WARMER READINGS WITH POTENTIAL TO BE NEAR 90
DEGS IN SOME LOCATIONS BASED ON LLVL THICKNESS.

EXTENDED (THU-SUN)...HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER GREAT LAKES EARLY ON
AND THEN DRIFTS INTO OHIO VALLEY BY WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS LATE WEEK AND TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
REMOVED PCPN FROM FORECAST ON THU WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SUPPRESSING MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. IN THIS PATTERN...GUIDANCE TYPICALLY TOO WARM
ON MINS THUS HAVE LOWERED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z/16 MEX
GUIDANCE PLAYING CATCH UP AND IS 5 DEGS COOLER ON MINS BOTH THU AND
FRI MORNINGS. OF CONCERN...AND SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
MONITOR...WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER MAXES. SIMILAR
SITUATION TO JUST UNDER A WEEK AGO...WHERE LAKE ENHANCED
NORTHEAST FETCH GENERATED LOW CLOUDS AND KEPT TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PROGGED FOR THE LATE WEEK IS EVEN
STRONGER THAN LAST WEEK/S...SO POTENTIAL WOULD APPEAR TO BE
QUITE HIGH...NO PUN INTENDED. NEXT CHC OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT AND MID
LEVEL WAVE. COULD BE A DECENT PCPN EVENT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING
AND MOISTURE RETURN.  ..MWM..


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

12/MWM





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun 16 11:35:49 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Mon, 16 Jun 2003 05:35:49 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/16/2003 5:35:49 AM
Message-ID: <200306161035.FAA23390@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 161033
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-171000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
531 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

$$





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun 16 20:51:27 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Mon, 16 Jun 2003 14:51:27 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/16/2003 2:51:27 PM
Message-ID: <200306161951.OAA01423@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 161948
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
247 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS 500MB VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHEAST BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
CONTINUES TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS.

CONVECTION MAY STILL FIRE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA...WITH BETTER CAPES AND PVA.  THE SHORT-
TERM MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY EASTERN HALF...THRU TUESDAY...WITH COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING...
WITH LITTLE CAA BEHIND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY WILL SUPPRESS INVERTED TROF IN LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
KEEPING IT FROM AFFECTING FORECAST AREA...ALTHO MORE CLOUDS SOUTH.
WITH SURFACE RIDGE REASSERTING ITSELF OVER GREAT LAKES...LAKE EFFECT
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT.  BY SATURDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.  A STRONG COLD FRONT...BY SUMMER STANDARDS...WILL MOVE
THRU IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH A SHARP 500MB TROF
MONDAY.

WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST AS IS WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.  MAY
REMOVE PRECIP FROM CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF COLD FRONT.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun 17 09:46:17 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 17 Jun 2003 03:46:17 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/17/2003 3:46:17 AM
Message-ID: <200306170846.DAA05985@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 170844
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
343 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2003

RATHER WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS MORNING OVER REGION WITH SURFACE 
HIGH CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON. THIS PUSHED ANOTHER LAKE 
AIRMASS FRONT THROUGH MOST OF FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING... 
RESULTING IN INFLUX OF COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN MID 40S TO MID 50S. 
AT UPPER LEVELS...STRONG CUTOFF VORT AT H5 WAS SPINNING OVER CHI 
WITH FEW RELATED TSRA SHOWING UP TO ITS EAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT H5 
SHORTWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD TSRA WAS MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL ROCKIES 
INTO HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NEB PANHANDLE TO 
CENTRAL ND ON 06Z ANALYSIS. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS MAIN SHORT TERM 
FORECAST CHALLENGE AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

00Z ETA IS FASTEST OF SHORT RANGE MODELS WITH THIS COLD FRONT 
REACHING EAST CENTRAL IA JUST BEFORE 06Z THEN EXITING SOUTHEAST 
ZONES JUST AFTER 12Z. GFS AND UKMET SLOWEST WITH THE FRONT NOT 
EXITING UNTIL AFTER 18Z WED. QUICK LOOK AT 06Z META TRENDS TOWARD 
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION AND WILL FOLLOW OVERALL BLEND. LOW LEVEL 
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND FEW 
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT AS OCCURRING UPSTREAM TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH 
MID LEVEL FORCING NOT IMPRESSIVE AND LAGS FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL WELL 
INTO WED OVER MOST OF AREA. FOLLOWING THE MODEL BLEND...CHANCE POPS 
BROUGHT IN EARLIER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE ACROSS THE 
NORTHWEST 2/3RDS OF CWFA AND WILL END CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES SOME TODAY WITH 
INITIALLY LOW DEWPOINTS...LOTS OF MORNING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. 
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS TONIGHT INTO WED...THEN WED NIGHT MINS 
WERE LOWERED SOME CLOSER TO COOLER GFS MOS AS HIGH SETTLES INTO MN 
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.   SHEETS

COOL...DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS SETTLES OVER REGION ON THURSDAY AND 
DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN BENIGN WX WITH SEASONAL 
TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY. GIVEN DRY NATURE 
OF AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE WITH SUNNY DAYS/CLEAR NIGHTS INTO 
SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT WE COULD SEE LAKE EFFECT 
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY. PATTERN 
THEN UNDERGOES CHANGE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND BECOMING MORE ACTIVE 
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN 
INCREASE IN HEAT/HUMIDITY. PCPN CHCS WILL ALSO ENTER THE PICTURE AS 
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EJECT OUT INTO THE NATION/S MIDSECTION AHEAD OF 
MEAN WESTERN U.S. TROUGH.

MCCLURE 

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$









From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun 17 11:57:33 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 17 Jun 2003 05:57:33 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/17/2003 5:57:33 AM
Message-ID: <200306171057.FAA03526@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 171055
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-181000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
554 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND WEDNESDAY. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH
ALONG WITH THE FRONT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...
HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

$$





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun 17 18:14:07 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Tue, 17 Jun 2003 12:14:07 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] The ARRL Letter, Vol 22, No 24
Message-ID: <20030614005620.26720.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

***************
The ARRL Letter
Vol. 22, No. 24
June 13, 2003
***************

IN THIS EDITION:

* +Pres Haynie makes the case for HR 713 on Capitol Hill
* +WRC-03 gets under way in Geneva
* +NASA educators hit the road to pitch ARISS, ham radio
* +WA8SME joins HQ staff as "Big Project" coordinator
* +FCC tells Part 15 users to hold the phone following QRM complaints
* +Ham-pianist more than halfway through run
*  Solar Update
*  IN BRIEF:
     This weekend on the radio
     ARRL Emergency Communications course registration
     ARRL Certification and Continuing Education course registration
     AO-40 expected to be visible to North America by Field Day
    +Declining QSL volume reflects decaying conditions
     Hudson, Atlantic Directors pulling out all stops on New York =
antenna
bill
     K1D to be on the air for Kid's Day
     Nevada club donates to The Big Project
     Problems reported with Fuji-OSCAR 20, 29 satellites

+Available on ARRL Audio News

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

=3D=3D>PRESIDENT HAYNIE TESTIFIES BEFORE CONGRESSIONAL SUBCOMMITTEE

ARRL President Jim Haynie, W5JBP, testified June 11 on Capitol Hill on
behalf of the Spectrum Protection Act of 2003, HR 713. The ARRL =
initiative
would require the FCC to provide "equivalent replacement spectrum" to
Amateur Radio if the FCC reallocates primary amateur frequencies, =
reduces
any secondary amateur allocations, or makes additional allocations =
within
such bands that would substantially reduce their utility to amateurs.
Haynie was the last of 11 scheduled witnesses to speak during the
Subcommittee on Telecommunications and the Internet hearing, "The =
Spectrum
Needs of Our Nation's First Responders."

"We are indeed a first responder," Haynie said on behalf of the nation's
some 680,000 Amateur Radio operators. Ham radio is more than "just =
having
fun playing on the radio," he told the panel, a subcommittee of the =
House
Energy and Commerce Committee chaired by Rep Billy Tauzin (R-LA). "It =
also
produces capable, trained volunteer communicators in systems of =
emergency
telecommunications that are impervious to disasters of all sorts," =
Haynie
said. "These volunteers are ready to respond--and do respond
immediately--when all other systems of communications fail, including
public safety communications whey they're overloaded, destroyed or lack
interoperability."

Among other examples, Haynie pointed out how Amateur Radio operators
answered the call on September 11, 2001, in New York City, at the =
Pentagon
and at the Western Pennsylvania crash site of the fourth hijacked
airliner. Hams also assisted federal authorities in the debris search
following the February 1 shuttle Columbia disaster, Haynie pointed out,
and aided in the response to tornadoes in the Midwest and South earlier
this year.

Haynie told the subcommittee that hams have lost more than 100 MHz of =
VHF
and UHF spectrum over the past 15 years and that another nearly 360 MHz =
of
VHF and UHF spectrum "has been substantially compromised." Haynie said
hams have shared spectrum successfully with government users on VHF and
UHF and have been able to "make do with less," but "that concept has
reached a breaking point with our service," he added. The 2.4 GHz area,
once left largely to amateurs, in recent years has become "polluted" =
with
wireless activity, Haynie told the panel.

"Interoperability" was the watchword of the day at the subcommittee
hearing, which got under way at 11 AM EDT and continued well into the
afternoon. Several witnesses testified that a lack of interoperability
among public safety responders at disaster scenes--including the World
Trade Center--prevented warning those in danger and resulted in a tragic
loss of life.

Haynie was not alone in offering supportive words about Amateur Radio. =
HR
713 sponsor Michael Bilirakis (R-FL), quoted a paragraph from the
submitted testimony of Norman Jacknis of the Westchester County, New =
York,
Department of Information Technology. "In the first hours following the
attack of September 11, 2001, the only way we could coordinate the =
sharing
of firefighting, medical examiner, health, and information technology
resources with New York City officials was through the highly trained,
volunteer Amateur Radio (ham) operators," Jacknis said. "This
irreplaceable resource must be protected from incursion by other
interests."

One of the two amateur licensees in Congress, Rep Greg Walden, WB7OCE
(R-OR)--a subcommittee member called for a halt to the "astonishing"
erosion of amateur spectrum. "Time and again, if you find an emergency,
you find a ham radio operator," Walden said.

FCC Office of Engineering and Technology Chief Edmond Thomas also cited
the contribution of Amateur Radio operators to public safety. "The ham
radio community has offered invaluable service to first responders =
during
emergency situations," the OET chief said.

A Senate version of the Amateur Radio Spectrum Protection Act, S 537, =
was
introduced earlier this year by Sen Michael Crapo (R-ID). The Senate =
bill
is being considered by the Commerce, Science and Transportation =
Committee,
but no hearing on the measure has been set. The text of HR 713 and S 537
is available via the Thomas Web site <http://thomas.loc.gov/>.

=3D=3D>WRC-03 UNDER WAY IN GENEVA

The International Telecommunication Union's (ITU) World =
Radiocommunication
Conference 2003 got under way June 9 in Geneva, Switzerland. More than
2600 delegates and other participants are expected to attend the =
four-week
conference, chaired by Dr Veena Rawat of Canada.

"Several items on the conference agenda are of great importance to radio
amateurs, so the International Amateur Radio Union has fielded its =
largest
team of observers at an ITU conference in more than a decade," noted =
IARU
Secretary (and ARRL CEO) David Sumner, K1ZZ, who's part of the IARU
delegation in Geneva. In addition to Sumner, the core IARU team consists
of IARU President Larry Price, W4RA, Wojciech Nietyksza, SP5FM, Michael
Owen, VK3KI, and Ken Pulfer, VE3PU. Past ITU Radiocommunication Bureau
Director Robert W. Jones, VE7RWJ, is serving as a consultant to the =
IARU.

Approximately a dozen other radio amateurs representing their national
IARU member-societies are participating on national delegations, along
with members of IARU regional executive committees who are serving on
delegations and in other capacities. Dozens of other radio amateurs are
present at WRC-03 in a wide range of professional capacities.

Amateur Radio is but a small part of the conference, which is trying to
complete work on more than 40 agenda items. Three are especially =
important
to Amateur Radio: Realignment of 7 MHz allocations, revision of the
regulations governing the amateur and amateur-satellite
services--including the Morse code requirement for HF operation, and
consideration of an allocation for satellite-borne synthetic aperture
radars (SARs) in the 70-cm band.

Two other agenda items with potentially great impact are the drafting of
an agenda for the next WRC, scheduled for 2007 and the revision of
footnotes to the Table of Frequency Allocations. A member of the IARU =
core
team has been assigned to follow each of these five items, but the
greatest focus is on 7 MHz, Sumner said.

Committee 4, chaired by Germany's Eberhard George, DL7IH, is handling =
the
critical agenda items for Amateur Radio except for the SARs request.

Sumner said that, while there's been plenty of informal discussion about
the issues, no final decisions have been made yet. "It is important to
remember that nothing is final until the second reading of a document in
the Plenary, which--in the case of controversial issues--will not take
place until the final week of the conference, June 30-July 4," he
said.--IARU news release

=3D=3D>ON THE ROAD FOR ARISS

Three new hams based at NASA's Johnson Space Center (JSC) have been
spending more than two-thirds of their workdays on the road highlighting
Amateur Radio on the International Space Station (ARISS) and other
NASA-supported educational programs. Aerospace education specialists for
the NASA Aerospace Education Services Program (AESP) headquartered at =
JSC,
the ham trio's combined territory includes Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas,
Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, New Mexico and Colorado. Forty
education specialists work out of NASA regional centers nationwide,
serving kindergarten through college-level educators.

"NASA personnel are involved in amazing research and engineering =
programs
truly unique to the agency," said Ota Lutz, KD5UQZ
<lutz@aesp.nasa.okstate.edu>, whose territory includes Kansas and
Nebraska. "The opportunity to share a glimpse inside those programs with
education audiences and observe the excitement it generates provides my
greatest source of satisfaction."

Lutz, Joan Sanders, KD5UQW <jsanders@ aesp.nasa.okstate>, and Angelo
Casaburri, KD5UQS <casaburri@ aesp.nasa.okstate.edu>--and Linus Guillory
<linus@ aesp.nasa.okstate>--travel to schools and museums as AESP
representatives. Casaburri's area is North and South Dakota, while
Guillory's is Colorado and Oklahoma.

AESP specializes in providing free professional development workshops =
for
teachers of science, mathematics, geography and technology. Workshops
introduce participants to hands-on activities and NASA curriculum =
support
materials.

Lutz, Sanders and Casaburri studied for and passed their licensing exams
in December, not only because they have a lot of respect for Amateur =
Radio
but because they believe in the benefits of the ARISS program. "ARISS
offers lots of opportunities, has a fairly simple application procedure
and an in-place support network--local ham clubs--and is available to
nearly anyone, regardless of geographic location," Lutz said.

Fellow aerospace education specialist Sanders agreed. "Without =
exception,
the men and women of the Astronaut Corps are heroes to school children,"
said Sanders, who travels in Texas and New Mexico. "Amateur Radio makes
contact possible with our astronauts on orbit for audiences around the
world, and it provides a method of direct access that otherwise may be
impossible."

They've found that teachers respond very positively to the their
presentations. As Lutz explained, "Our focus is on providing =
inquiry-based
hands-on activities that are aligned with state educational standards =
and
utilize inexpensive materials. NASA Enterprise topics are the driving
theme, so our material is current and of high interest to students,
teachers and the general public."

NASA's Aerospace Education Services Program began in 1961. Oklahoma =
State
University, the current contract administrator, recently approved the
three new hams for a portable ham station to take on the road. The
aerospace education specialists want to give teachers an idea of how =
easy
it is to operate a ham station, and they're hoping local radio club
members will partner with schools.

Amateurs may check the NASA AESP Web site
<http://aesp.nasa.okstate.edu/jsc/aesp> and the OSU AESP Web site
<http://www.okstate.edu/aesp/AESP.html> to learn what the specialists =
have
to offer and where they expect to be during the summer.--Rosalie White,
K1STO

=3D=3D>WA8SME IS NEW COORDINATOR OF ARRL'S "THE BIG PROJECT"

Mark Spencer, WA8SME, has joined the ARRL Headquarters staff as the new
coordinator of the ARRL Amateur Radio Education and Technology
program--also known as "The Big Project." He succeeds Jerry Hill, KH6HU,
who has returned to Hawaii.

Spencer, whose first day on the job was June 5, said he's happy to have
the chance to continue to work with both young people and Amateur Radio.
"This office has the great opportunity to be a facilitator in =
integrating
wireless technologies into the schools," he said. "Ham radio is a facet
that can open doors in that area, and I think that ham radio can help =
make
the curriculum relevant for kids."

A ham for 38 years, Spencer has taught math, science, computers and =
social
science at the middle school, high school and community college levels,
often integrating Amateur Radio into his lessons.

ARRL Field and Educational Services Manager Rosalie White, K1STO, said
she's thrilled to have someone of Spencer's caliber to guide the =
Education
and Technology Program. "The sky's the limit, dependent only on the
program's funding by generous ARRL members and corporations," White =
said.

White pointed out that Hill--The Big Project's first coordinator--was
instrumental in guiding 50 pilot schools into the program and oversaw =
its
development beyond the initial plans into a viable program that already
has touched the lives of nearly 1400 young people.

Prior to starting his teaching career in 1993, Spencer served 21 years =
in
the US Air Force, retiring with the rank of Lt Colonel after a career =
that
included work in reconnaissance and intelligence.

The goal of the Education and Technology Program is to use Amateur Radio
as a vehicle to improve the quality of education by providing a =
curriculum
focused on wireless communications. The project emphasizes integration =
of
technology, math, science, geography, language skills and social
responsibility within a global society. It also provides a complete
Amateur Radio station for schools accepted into the program.

The continued success of the ARRL Amateur Radio Education and Technology
Program depends on individual and corporate contributions. To learn =
more,
visit the ARRL Development Office secure Education and Technology =
Program
donor Web site
<https://www.arrl.org/forms/development/donations/education/index.html>.
For more information on The Big Project, visit the ARRL Amateur Radio
Education and Technology Program Web site <www.arrl.org/FandES/tbp> or
e-mail Spencer <mspencer@arrl.org>.

=3D=3D>FCC WRITES PART 15 DEVICE USERS ABOUT ALLEGED INTERFERENCE TO =
AMATEUR

Hold the phone! The FCC has written two Northern Virginia residents to
follow up on complaints from a local amateur who's alleging that he's on
the receiving end of harmful interference from telephone devices with =
the
capability to support multiple cordless remotes. Both are unlicensed =
Part
15 consumer electronics devices made by a well-known manufacturer. The
complaints from Bernie Keiser, W4SW--an ARRL member in Vienna, Virginia,
near Washington, DC--represented a bit of a turnabout from the typical
interference scenario, where ham operation occasionally generates
complaints of interference to cordless consumer equipment.

"Harmful interference to a licensed radio service from a Part 15 device =
is
a violation of FCC rules," warned Sharon Bowers, deputy chief of the
Consumer Inquiries and Complaint Division of the FCC's Consumer and
Governmental Affairs Bureau. Bowers explained that the equipment was
classified as an "intentional radiator"--a device that generates an RF
signal as part of its normal operation. In separate letters June 2 to =
the
two Part 15 users--both also Vienna residents--she pointed out that if
their cordless telephone devices cause harmful interference to licensed
spectrum users, "the operator of the device is responsible for =
correcting
the interference, ceasing operation, if necessary, whenever such
interference occurs."

Keiser told ARRL that the interference--in the form of broadband noise
from 2400 to 2450 MHz--impairs his ability to hear the AO-40 downlink =
and
beacon on the band. "I have a 2.4-GHz cordless telephone that does not
cause problems," he said. According to Keiser, the devices in question
electronically poll various remote stations, and it's the polling =
function
that apparently causes the noise. He was able to track down the noise
sources on his own and has discussed the issue with his neighbors, with
whom, he says, he remains on friendly terms. He said the owner of the
device that's causing the worst interference is a communications =
attorney
who understands the problem and hopes to deal with it through the
manufacturer.

In her letters, Bowers cited the applicable sections of Part 15 and
advised that the alleged harmful interference must be corrected before
they may use the devices legally. She suggested the consumers contact =
the
manufacturer or retailer of the devices to see if they'd either allow =
them
to return them or exchange them for devices that don't cause =
interference.

=3D=3D>HAM-PIANIST MARATHONER GETS BOOST FROM MISSOURI CLUB

Concert pianist Martin Berkofsky, KC3RE, got some help from members of =
the
Zero Beaters Amateur Radio Club (WA0FYA) when his CelebrateLifeRun
<http://www.celebrateliferun.com> from Tulsa to Chicago took him through
Washington, Missouri, on June 4. A cancer survivor and an ARRL member =
from
Northern Virginia, Berkofsky set out April 9--his 60th birthday--on an
860-mile jog to celebrate his recovery from cancer and to raise money =
for
research into the disease. He's now just beyond the halfway point in his
journey.

"I've been feeling fine," Berkofsky told ARRL, "and have managed to keep
out of the really bad weather, only ducking for cover once, and once
running with an umbrella."

As Berkofsky got closer to the metropolitan area, he found that road =
noise
drowned out his hand-held amateur transceiver and his cell phone. Craig
Brune, N0MFD, modified a headset--with a cushion around the earpiece--to
cancel road noise and enable Berkofsky to keep talking with fellow hams
while on the move. During the June 4 ZBARC club meeting, Berkofsky
recapped the first half of his cross-country trek. Berkofsky was set to
resume running June 14 following a June 12 benefit concert at Webster
University in St Louis. He says Brune also loaned him an extendable
antenna for 2 meters, "so I should be able to have some contacts even =
from
the Illinois corn fields."

=3D=3D>SOLAR UPDATE

Propagation prophet Tad "The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow" Cook, K7RA,
Seattle, Washington, reports: Geomagnetic disturbances continued this
week, but at a lower level than the previous seven days. Average daily
planetary A index for the week dropped to 21 from 37.1 the previous =
week.
The average daily sunspot number rose from 67.4 to 149.4, reaching a =
peak
of 207 on Tuesday, June 10. Solar flux also was up. Weekly average solar
flux rose from 117.4 to 150.5. Solar flux peaked at 192.9 on Wednesday,
June 11. Solar flux over the weekend is expected to be 150, 140, 130 and
120 for Friday through Monday.

With all of the recent geomagnetic disturbances, there is hope for HF
operators with the predicted planetary A index of 12 for June 13 and =
June
16. This is only slightly unsettled--much better than the A indices of =
20
to 30 we've seen recently. However, be aware that flares can pop up and
conditions can change. A coronal mass ejection earlier this week could =
hit
Earth June 13, causing a rise in geomagnetic indices.

Sunspot numbers for June 5 through 11 were 95, 98, 125, 167, 176, 207 =
and
178, with a mean of 149.4. The 10.7-cm flux was 113.6, 125.6, 133.2,
153.4, 158.3, 176.5 and 192.9, with a mean of 150.5. Estimated planetary =
A
indices were 13, 13, 24, 27, 28, 27 and 15, with a mean of 21.

__________________________________

=3D=3D>IN BRIEF:

* This weekend on the radio: The ARRL June VHF QSO Party, the ANARTS =
World
Wide RTTY Contest, the Portugal Day Contest, the World Wide South =
America
CW Contest, the Asia-Pacific Sprint (SSB) and the West Virginia QSO =
Party
are the weekend of June 14-15. JUST AHEAD: Kid's Day, the All Asian DX
Contest (CW), the SMIRK Contest, the AGCW VHF/UHF Contest and the DIE
Contest are the weekend of June 21-22. See the ARRL Contest Branch page
<http://www.arrl.org/contests/> and the WA7BNM Contest Calendar
<http://www.hornucopia.com/contestcal/index.html> for more info.

* ARRL Emergency Communications course registration: Registration is
closed for the Level II ARRL Amateur Radio Emergency Communications
on-line course (EC-002) that begins June 24 and is sponsored by United
Technologies Corporation. Registration opens Monday, June 16, 12:01 AM
Eastern Daylight Time (0401 UTC), for the Level III Emergency
Communications on-line course (EC-003). Registration remains open =
through
the June 21-22 weekend or until all available seats have been
filled--whichever comes first. Class begins Tuesday, July 1. Thanks to a
grant from United Technologies Corp, the $45 registration fee paid upon
enrollment will be reimbursed after successful completion of the Level =
III
course. During this registration period, approximately 50 seats are =
being
offered to ARRL members on a first-come, first-served basis. For more
information, contact Emergency Communications Course Manager Dan Miller,
K3UFG, dmiller@arrl.org; 860-594-0340.

* ARRL Certification and Continuing Education course registration:
Registration for the new ARRL VHF/UHF--Life Beyond the Repeater (EC-008)
<http://www.arrl.org/cce/courses.html#ec008> and the High Frequency
Digital Communications (EC-005)
<http://www.arrl.org/cce/courses.html#ec005> courses opens Monday, June
16, 12:01 AM EDT (0401 UTC). Registration remains open through Sunday,
June 22. Classes begin Tuesday afternoon, June 24. Registration for the
ARRL Antenna Modeling (EC-004)
<http://www.arrl.org/cce/courses.html#ec004> course remains open through
Sunday, June 15. Those interested in taking an ARRL Certification and
Continuing Education (C-CE) course in the future can sign up to be =
advised
via e-mail in advance of registration opportunities. To take advantage,
send an e-mail to prereg@arrl.org. On the subject line, indicate the
course name or number (eg, EC-00#) and the month you want to start the
course. In the message body, provide your name, call sign, and e-mail
address. Please do not send inquiries to this mailbox. To learn more,
visit the ARRL Certification and Continuing Education Web page
<http://www.arrl.org/cce> and the C-CE links found there. For more
information, contact Certification and Continuing Education Program
Coordinator Howard Robins, W1HSR, hrobins@arrl.org. [C-CE logo]

* AO-40 expected to be visible to North America by Field Day: The AO-40
satellite is expected to return to a favorable alignment (ALON/ALAT =3D =
0/0)
on or about June 20, ground controller Stacey Mills, W4SM, reports. A
typical passband schedule for ALON/ALAT =3D 0/0 is MA 40 to 210, which =
Mills
said should hold for the start of Field Day, June 28, when AO-40 will be
visible to all of North America, assuming it makes it back to 0/0 by =
June
20. "We should at least be close to that value by then," Mills said,
"although the perigee eclipses are making it slow going to advance =
ALON."
Mills said another cycle of attitude changes will have to start in the
fall.--Stacey Mills, W4SM, via AMSAT News Service

* Problems reported with Fuji-OSCAR 20, 29 satellites: AMSAT reports
apparent troubles with the two remaining linear transponder satellites
outside of AO-40. Fuji-OSCAR 20 (FO-20)--uplink 145.90 to 146.00 MHz
(CW/LSB); downlink 435.80 to 435.90 MHz (CW/USB); beacon 435.795 =
MHz--has
been reported silent by numerous operators. Launched February 7, 1990,
FO-20 is in mode JA continuously. FO-20 control station operators are =
said
to believe that the under-voltage controller now is regulating the
transponder. The controller monitors battery voltage and tries to =
protect
the batteries from overdischarge. Meanwhile, AMSAT reports that the =
Japan
Amateur Radio League (JARL) FO-29 command station is carefully =
considering
options to turn on the satellite's transmitter because it is not clear =
why
FO-29 recently went silent. When the satellite has been on, reports have
indicated it has a distorted signal. The command team seeks reception
reports, so if you hear FO-29, report the time (UTC), location, signal
strength to Masa, JN1GKZ, <jn1gkz@qsl.net> or to the AMSAT-BB. FO-29 was
launched August 17, 1996. Mode JA uplink 145.90 to 146.00 MHz (CW/LSB);
downlink 435.80 to 435.90 MHz (CW/USB); beacon 435.795 MHz. Digital Mode
JD uplink 145.850, 145.870 and 145.910 MHz (FM); downlink 435.910 MHz
(1200-baud BPSK or 9600-baud FSK). FO-29 also has a digitalker at =
435.910
MHz.--AMSAT News Service

* Declining QSL volume reflects decaying conditions: ARRL Outgoing QSL
Service <http://www.arrl.org/qsl/qslout.html> Manager Martin Cook, =
N1FOC,
can't be certain, but he's ready to blame the downswing in the solar =
cycle
for a marked decline in the number of QSL cards his bureau has handled =
so
far this year. "I hope it's not going to be a trend of this cycle," said
Cook, whose operation last year mailed out 1,963,165 cards from ARRL
members to DX stations--an approximately 1.6 percent jump over 2001. So
far this year, the trend is going the other way, with just 681,400 cards
shipped compared with 951,000 by the same time one year ago. "This is a
significant decrease in cards coming in from members for processing," =
said
Cook, who manages the Outgoing QSL Service with assistance from Heather
Dzamba.

* Hudson, Atlantic Directors pulling out all stops on New York antenna
bill: ARRL Hudson Division Director Frank Fallon, N2FF, and Atlantic
Division Director Bernie Fuller, N3EFN, are calling on New York ARRL
members to help get the state's Amateur Radio antenna bills enacted this
legislative session. "The final session of the New York State Assembly =
for
the year 2003 will be Thursday, June 19," Fallon and Fuller said in a
joint statement. "We have only days left to get our antenna bills =
passed.
We need to pull out all the stops and press for passage of our bill =
now."
In the Senate, Fallon and Fuller say, the bill, S63, needs to be "put on
the active list" on the Senate calendar and brought out for a vote.
They're calling on New York hams to ask three senators to put the bill =
on
the active list: Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno
<bruno@senate.state.ny.us>, 909 Legislative Office Bldg, Albany, NY =
12247;
518-445-3191, fax 518-455-2448; Sen Dale Volker, 427 Capitol Bldg, =
Albany,
NY 12247 518-455-3471, fax 518-455-6949; and Sen Hugh Farley, 412
Legislative Office Bldg, Albany, NY 12247, 518-455-2181, fax =
518-455-2271.
The Assembly bill, A2662, has cleared the Local Governments and Ways and
Means committees and now needs to be reported out of the Rules Committee
headed by Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, =
<speaker@assembly.state.ny.us>
Legislative Office Bldg 932, Albany, NY 12247, 518-455-3791, fax
518-455-5467. The New York bills go beyond simply incorporating PRB-1 =
into
state law. They would prohibit municipalities from passing laws or
ordinances to "restrict antenna support structure height to less than 95
feet above ground level or restrict the number of antenna support
structures." For more information and sample letters for lawmakers, =
visit
the Hudson Division Web site <http://www.hudson.arrl.org>.

* K1D to be on the air for Kid's Day: Special event station K1D will be =
on
the air June 21 for ARRL Kid's Day
<http://www.arrl.org/FandES/ead/kd-rules.html>. Peter Schipelliti, =
W1DAD,
and his wife Jeanne, K1MOM, will be on the air as K1D prior to Kid's Day
to promote the event. Their youngsters Geena, 8, and Luciano, 6, will be
on the air on Kid's Day. "Any noises in the background will be Francesca
Rose--22 months," Peter Schipelliti said.

* Nevada club donates to The Big Project: In recognition of the ARRL and
President Haynie's commitment to bring Amateur Radio to the youth of
America, the Nellis Radio Amateur Club (NRAC) of Nevada voted to begin
financial support of the ARRL Education and Technology Program-- "The =
Big
Project." The club recently announced an initial donation of $150.
President John Bigley, N7UR, said NRAC graduates a new class of =
Technician
operators each year. The club also offers an annual General-class =
course.
Nets also conduct twice-weekly interactive code practice sessions on the
club's KC7TMC 147.06 and 449.875 repeaters, Bigley said. NRAC is
affiliated with Nellis Air Force Base. For more information, visit the
NRAC Web site <http://nellisrac.org/>.


=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
The ARRL Letter is published Fridays, 50 times each year, by the =
American
Radio Relay League--The National Association For Amateur Radio--225 Main
St, Newington, CT 06111; tel 860-594-0200; fax 860-594-0259;
<http://www.arrl.org>. Jim Haynie, W5JBP, President.

The ARRL Letter offers a weekly e-mail digest of essential news of
interest to active amateurs. The ARRL Letter strives to be timely,
accurate, concise, and readable. Visit ARRLWeb <http://www.arrl.org> for
the latest news, updated as it happens. The ARRL Web site
<http://www.arrl.org/> offers access to news, informative features and
columns. ARRL Audio News <http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter/audio/> is a
weekly "ham radio newscast" compiled from The ARRL Letter.

Material from The ARRL Letter may be republished or reproduced in whole =
or
in part in any form without additional permission. Credit must be given =
to
The ARRL Letter and The American Radio Relay League.

=3D=3D>Delivery problems (ARRL member direct delivery only!):
letter-dlvy@arrl.org
=3D=3D>Editorial questions or comments: Rick Lindquist, N1RL, =
n1rl@arrl.org
=3D=3D>ARRL News on the Web: <http://www.arrl.org>
=3D=3D>ARRL Audio News: <http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter/audio/> or call
860-594-0384

=3D=3D>How to Get The ARRL Letter
The ARRL Letter is available to ARRL members free of charge directly =
from
ARRL HQ. To subscribe, unsubscribe or change your address for e-mail
delivery:
ARRL members first must register on the Members Only Web Site
<http://www.arrl.org/members/>. You'll have an opportunity during
registration to sign up for e-mail delivery of The ARRL Letter, W1AW
bulletins, and other material. To change these selections--including
delivery of The ARRL Letter--registered members should click on the
"Member Data Page" link (in the Members Only box). Click on "Modify
membership data," check or uncheck the appropriate boxes and/or change
your e-mail address if necessary. (Check "Temporarily disable all
automatically sent email" to temporarily stop all e-mail deliveries.)
Then, click on "Submit modification" to make selections effective. =
(NOTE:
HQ staff members cannot change your e-mail delivery address. You must do
this yourself via the Members Only Web Site.)

The ARRL Letter also is available to all, free of charge, from these
sources:

* ARRLWeb <http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter/>. (NOTE: The ARRL Letter will
be posted each Friday when it is distributed via e-mail.)

* The QTH.net listserver, thanks to volunteers from the Boston Amateur
Radio Club: Visit Mailing Lists@QTH.Net
<http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/letter-list>. (NOTE: The ARRL
cannot assist subscribers who receive The ARRL Letter via this
listserver.)



From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun 17 21:54:40 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 17 Jun 2003 15:54:40 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/17/2003 3:54:40 PM
Message-ID: <200306172054.PAA07297@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 172048
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2003

MODELS PROG WEAK COLD FRONT/FORCING TO MOVE ACROSS CWFA LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LIKE HOW THE NGM IS HANDLING THINGS AS IT USUALLY
DOES QUITE WELL IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENTS. INITIAL PRECIP TO
JUST ENTER CWFA THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OUT...FOLLOWED BY SHRA
AND MAYBE A TSRA WITH 10-20 PERCENT COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. NGM
INCREASES FORCING DURING THE DAY SO COVERAGE TO INCREASE TO
SCATTERED...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA TODAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WX TURNS QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM AND
FIRST PART OF EXTENDED.

IN EXTENDED HIGH TO BRING CHILLY TEMPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE A GOOD CHUNK OF AREA IN THE 40S AS MODELS PROBABLY DON/T HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR. RETURN FLOW TO WARM THINGS UP
QUICKLY WITH TEMPS APPROACHING NEAR 90 FOR MUCH OF CWFA ON SUNDAY.
SHRA/TSRA THREAT TO INCREASE AS WELL AS GULF OPENS UP. MODELS
GIVING SIGNALS FOR POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY EITHER SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY NIGHT. MRF LIKELY OVERDONE FOR EVENT ON TUESDAY. EVEN
CUTTING BACK STRENGTH BY 50 PERCENT STILL POINTS TO ACTIVE WX.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 18 02:01:12 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Tue, 17 Jun 2003 20:01:12 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLK047 Keplerian data
Message-ID: <20030617210714.21325.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB KEP @ ARL $ARLK047
ARLK047 Keplerian data

ZCZC SK47
QST de W1AW =20
Keplerian Bulletin 47  ARLK047
>From ARRL Headquarters
Newington, CT  June 17, 2003
To all radio amateurs=20

SB KEP ARL ARLK047
ARLK047 Keplerian data

Thanks to Con, W5BWF, for the following Keplerian data. =20

Decode 2-line elsets with the following key:
1 AAAAAU 00  0  0 BBBBB.BBBBBBBB  .CCCCCCCC  00000-0  00000-0 0  DDDZ
2 AAAAA EEE.EEEE FFF.FFFF GGGGGGG HHH.HHHH III.IIII JJ.JJJJJJJJKKKKKZ
KEY: A-CATALOGNUM B-EPOCHTIME C-DECAY D-ELSETNUM E-INCLINATION F-RAAN
G-ECCENTRICITY H-ARGPERIGEE I-MNANOM J-MNMOTION K-ORBITNUM Z-CHECKSUM

AO-07
1 07530U 74089B   03166.68812178 -.00000029  00000-0  10000-3 0  1774
2 07530 101.7396 213.2763 0011811 212.7494 147.2844 12.53565615307862
AO-10
1 14129U 83058B   03165.00733412 -.00000079  00000-0  10000-3 0  9425
2 14129  26.1991 145.6395 5987194   0.1665 359.8177  2.05867969122446
UO-11
1 14781U 84021B   03168.20812395  .00000836  00000-0  12246-3 0  1777
2 14781  98.1335 143.2123 0008949 182.3348 177.7822 14.78299835 33766
UO-14
1 20437U 90005B   03167.15547536  .00000075  00000-0  43722-4 0  2563
2 20437  98.2542 205.0365 0009997 208.9894 151.0735 14.31274385699311
AO-16
1 20439U 90005D   03167.98953123  .00000100  00000-0  53255-4 0  9231
2 20439  98.2969 218.1877 0010387 213.2991 146.7520 14.31515929699473
FO-20
1 20480U 90013C   03166.87740638 +.00000013 +00000-0 +91829-4 0 05034
2 20480 099.0661 107.6846 0540781 098.2083 268.0683 12.83333824625568
UO-22
1 21575U 91050B   03167.55915083  .00000165  00000-0  66384-4 0  8260
2 21575  98.1505 153.8400 0007988 129.2234 230.9664 14.39228160625252
AO-27
1 22825U 93061C   03167.87805673  .00000087  00000-0  50368-4 0  5828
2 22825  98.2598 191.4748 0007383 270.9110  89.1227 14.28982032506770
IO-26
1 22826U 93061D   03168.09974554  .00000133  00000-0  68508-4 0  3712
2 22826  98.2626 192.8490 0007985 268.3285  91.6979 14.29209304506850
RS-15
1 23439U 94085A   03166.63312182 -.00000056  00000-0 -39443-3 0  7075
2 23439  64.8140 212.1819 0145687  92.4991 269.2508 11.27548070348793
FO-29
1 24278U 96046B   03166.90914292 +.00000013 +00000-0 +52198-4 0 06035
2 24278 098.5574 302.3085 0350149 272.4994 083.6110 13.52882032337177
ISS
1 25544U 98067A   03168.11792917  .00018536  00000-0  23381-3 0  1259
2 25544  51.6339  20.5802 0006603 261.7030 251.3909 15.59617674260996
SO-41
1 26545U 00057A   03168.06805717  .00000676  00000-0  10875-3 0  4871
2 26545  64.5605  27.6399 0042098 219.7822 140.0219 14.79238498146744
MO-46
1 26548U 00057D   03167.09411127  .00000850  00000-0  12529-3 0  4876
2 26548  64.5581  22.1914 0035778 221.2646 138.5779 14.81601812146775
AO-40
1 26609U 00072B   03164.53390554 -.00000201  00000-0  10000-3 0  3374
2 26609   8.9717  43.9710 7960116 184.2907 157.7601  1.25598246 12037
NO-44
1 26931U 01043C   03168.21571805  .00000086  00000-0  66429-4 0  5009
2 26931  67.0472 310.1530 0006760 274.7350  85.2985 14.29174483 89309
SO-50
1 27607U 02058C   03167.53739534  .00000501  00000-0  10426-3 0  1515
2 27607  64.5511 200.2276 0038616  55.7118 304.7631 14.70135280 26144

Keplerian bulletins are transmitted twice weekly from W1AW. =20
The next scheduled transmission of these data will be Friday,=20
June 20, 2003, at 2230z on Baudot and AMTOR.
NNNN
/EX



From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 18 10:37:47 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 18 Jun 2003 04:37:47 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/18/2003 4:37:47 AM
Message-ID: <200306180938.EAA23354@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 180932
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
400 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2003

08Z MSAS ANALYSIS AND SFC OBS DEPICT WEAK COLD FRONT ROUGHLY FROM 
CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHWEST IA. LACK OF FORCING LIMITING PCPN
TO MAINLY ISOLD-SCTD CONVECTION ATTIM. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WITH RIDGING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.
WATER VAPOR AND PROFILERS SHOW SHORTWAVE SHEARING SOME WHILE DIVING 
E/SE THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST. 

WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA 
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND 
UPPER MIDWEST. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT 
UNDER PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH CAPES PROGGED IN THE 
RANGE OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND LI/S -2 TO -4. LIMITING 
FACTORS FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WX INCLUDE 1) LACK OF SHEAR WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND 2) LACK OF COHERENT TRIGGER...WITH
WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MAIN SHORTWAVE/FORCING REMAINING TO 
THE NORTH. WITH DEWPTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S AND PW/S CLIMBING
TO BETWEEN 1.5-1.75 INCHES...EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO BE 
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FAIRLY SLOW MOVING POST FRONTAL 
MULTICELL TYPE STORMS. GET BENEATH THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS AND IT/S 
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEED 1 INCH. 
STILL THOUGH...CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
HIGH WBZ/S SHOULD LIMIT HAIL TO AROUND PEA SIZE AT BEST.
GUIDANCE POPS MAINLY IN CHANCE CAT LOOK REASONABLE...THOUGH WOULD NOT
BE SUPRISED TO SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN IN SOME AREAS. 
TEMPS ARE NEXT CONCERN. BELIEVE WE/LL SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN 
PREVIOUS FORECAST ADVERTISED...WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS 
COMBINED WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT RAISING
TEMPS AT LEAST 1 CAT. LLVL THICKNESS SUPPORTS 85 TO 90 DEGS FROM 
NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT THIS BEING WITH FULL SUNSHINE. STILL...FAVORED 
BLEND OF WARMER FWC AND MET GUIDANCE.

LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 TO 
SHIFT SOUTH OF AREA AND WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITH
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASE IN 
CLOUDS. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT WE COULD SEE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WITH FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FETCH DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE THOUGH ON STRENGTH OF WINDS BEING MUCH ABOVE 10 KTS
TO SUFFICIENTLY ADVECT CLOUDS IN...SO WENT WITH OPTIMISTIC 
SKY TRENDS. TRIMMED BACK GOING MINS BY A FEW DEGS.

MCCLURE


THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM WESTERN LAKE 
SUPERIOR THURSDAY MORNING TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT 
WITH RIDGING ALOFT OVER CENTRAL CONUS. RETURN OF EAST TO NORTHEAST 
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT VALUES BELOW 
NORMAL AND TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. CHANGE STILL 
ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST WITH 
TROUGH IN WEST PROVIDING PERIODIC SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW 
ALOFT. RESULTING H85 FLOW WILL MAKE GULF MOISTURE FINALLY AVAILABLE 
FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AND KEPT WITH ONGOING CHANCES IN SUNDAY 
THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. LATEST GFS BRINGS IN FIRST SHORTWAVE AND 
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND QPF NORTHWARD INTO CWFA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS 
IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND LATEST ECMWF AND WILL THUS HOLD OFF 
MAKING THIS CHANGE UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT. MAX 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIME TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH 
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TO HOLD NIGHTTIME MINS MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT 
TRENDS.    

SHEETS

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$















From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 18 11:49:35 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 18 Jun 2003 05:49:35 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/18/2003 5:49:35 AM
Message-ID: <200306181049.FAA06077@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 181047
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-191000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS SOME SUN
BOOSTS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR WILL
BE RATHER WEAK...THEREFORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SMALL
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
SLOW MOVEMENT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
EITHER SLOW MOVING OR REPETITIVE CONVECTION. THIS COULD RESULT IN
MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COOL...DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL SHIFT EAST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...SIGNALING A CHANGE TO A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SOME SEVERE WEATHER...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANY SPOTTER REPORTS OF HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN 40
MPH WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

$$





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 18 20:54:57 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 18 Jun 2003 14:54:57 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/18/2003 2:54:57 PM
Message-ID: <200306181955.OAA25700@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 181951
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
250 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2003

POST-FRONTAL PULSE/MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL CONVECTION IN MOIST 
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH LOSS 
OF DIURNAL HEATING...SO EXPECT END TO ACTIVITY BY 9 PM.  

SURFACE RIDGE WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 50 WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW...SO 
A VERY NICE DAY ON TAP.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RECORD COOL TEMPS 
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SPANS THE CWFA.  

FRIDAY...HIGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALLOWING MOISTURE 
RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE BY SATURDAY.  WEAK DISTURBANCE 
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LACK OF LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE MAKES POPS NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS POINT.  

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MIDWEST SETTLES INTO ACTIVE CONVECTIVE 
PATTERN.  UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN US...RESULTING IN SWLY 
UPPER FLOW SPANNING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A DEEPENING SURFACE 
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.  CHANCE OF THUNDER EACH DAY UNTIL SURFACE 
LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED FOR LATE 
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TO BE WARM AND HUMID UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW 
LEVEL RETURN FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME RELIEF 
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

33
$$





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun 19 02:03:24 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Wed, 18 Jun 2003 20:03:24 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARRL Contest Rate Sheet for June 18, 2003
Message-ID: <20030618041741.27220.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

***********************
Contester's Rate Sheet
18 June 2003
***********************

Edited by Ward Silver, N0AX

SUMMARY
o Get those kids away from the TV and into the shack, Kid's Day is
here!
o Field Day, June 28th and 29th, has a new Class F category for EOC
stations
o N8SM -- Silent Key
o Listen for AH2G in Field Day
o World's Longest Garage Sale
o Holding Down Those Pesky Radials
o Making the Developer's Brains Hurt

BULLETINS
o Because of the new Field Day category, it would be a REALLY good
idea to have your Field Day chairman be sure that the logging
software has been updated to accept "F" as a valid entry.

BUSTED QSOS
o The LABRE WW South American CW contest date was mis-reported in the
last issue as 7-8 Jun. In reality it was this past weekend, 14-15 Jun
- http://www.labre.org/updatedrules.html. Sorry about that. (Thanks,
Bob W2SR)

ANNOUNCEMENT & NOTICES FOR 18 JUNE TO 1 JULY 2003

Logs are due for the following contests:

June 18 - US Counties QSO Party, SSB, email to: (US logs)
d.e.travers@worldnet.att.net, (Non-US logs) snichols@mvosprey.com,
paper logs to: (US logs only) Duane Travers, WV2B, 99 Oregon Hill
Rd., Lisle, NY 13797-1002, USA

June 19 - Anatolian RTTY WW Contest, email to: ta9j@qsl.net, paper
logs to: TA9J Ismail Cakmak, P.O. Box 34, 36000 Kars, Turkey
=20
June 20 - VK-ZL Trans-Tasman Contest, Phone, email to:
vktasman@hotmail.com, paper logs to: VK/ Trans-Tasman Contest, 28
Crampton Crescent, Rosanna, VIC 3084, Australia

June 24 - QRP ARCI Hootowl Sprint, email to: rfoltz@turbonet.com,
paper logs to: Randy Foltz, K7TQ, Attn: Hootowl Sprint, 809 Leith
St., Moscow, ID 83843, USA
=20
June 25 - His Maj. King of Spain Contest, CW, email to:
concursoshf@ure.es, paper logs to: URE HF Contests, P.O. Box 220,
28080 Madrid, Spain
=20
June 25 - MI QRP Memorial Day CW Sprint, email to: n8cqa@att.net,
paper logs to: L.T. Switzer, N8CQA, 427 Jeffrey Avenue, Royal Oak, MI
48073-2521, USA
=20
June 30 - Manchester Mineira CW Contest, email to: (none), paper logs
to: CWJF Contest Committee, P.O. Box 410, Juiz de Fora - MG
36001-970, Brazil
=20
June 30 - Six Club WW Contest, email to: contests@6mt.com, paper logs
to: Wayne Lewis, W4WRL, 3338 South Cashua Drive, Florence, SC
29501-6306, USA
=20
June 30 - IARU Region 1 Field Day, CW, email submission depends on
the national society rules, paper logs to your national society
=20
July 1 - CQ-M International DX Contest, email to: cqm@srr.ru, paper
logs to: CQ-M Contest Committee, Krenkel Central Radio Club of
Russia, P.O. Box 88, Moscow 123459, Russia
=20
July 1 - Baltic Contest, email to: lrsf@lrsf.lt, paper logs to:
Baltic Contest, P.O. Box 210, LT3000 Kaunas, Lithuania
=20
July 1 - CQWW WPX Contest, CW, email to: wpxcw@kkn.net, paper logs
to: CQ Magazine, 25 Newbridge Rd., Suite 405, Hicksville, NY 11801,
USA
=20
July 1 - Great Lakes QSO Party, email to: bripaw@yahoo.com, paper
logs to: Brian Pawloski, W8BRI, PO Box 140012, Grand Rapids, MI
49514-0012, USA

The following contests are scheduled:

Note that the following abbreviations are used to condense the
contest rules summaries:
SO - Single-Op; M2 - Multiop - 2 Transmitters; MO - Multi-Op; MS -
Multi-Op, Single Transmitter; MM - Multi-Op, Multiple Transmitters;
AB - All Band; SB - Single Band; S/P/C - State/Province/DXCC Entity;
HP - High Power; LP - Low Power; Entity - DXCC Entity

HF CONTESTS

Kid's Day Operating Event--SSB - sponsored by the Boring Amateur
Radio Club (BARC) from 1800 to 2400Z Jun 21. Frequencies (MHz):
14.270-14.300, 21.380-21.400, 28.350-28.400 and 2-meter repeater
frequencies with permission from your area repeater sponsor.
Exchange: Name, age, location and favorite color. Work stations again
if the operator changes...or needs changing. For more
information--http://www.arrl.org/FandES/ead/kd-rules.html. No logs
need to be submitted by all participants may obtain a certificate by
sending a 9x12 SASE to: Boring Amateur Radio Club, PO Box 1357;
Boring, OR 97009.

All-Asian DX Contest - CW - sponsored by the Japan Amateur Radio
League from 0000Z Jun 21 to 2400Z Jun 22. (SSB - Sep 6 - 7).
Frequencies: 160 - 10 meters, incl. 10-min. band change rule.
Categories: SOAB, SOSB, MO, Low Power (Asian stations only), Junior
(JA stations <20 years), Senior (JA stations >70 years). Exchange:
RS(T) and a two digit number denoting the operator's age. YL stations
may send 00. QSO Points for non-Asian stations: 40 - 15 meters - 1
pt, 80 and 10 meters - 2 pts, 160 meters - 3 pts. Score: QSO pts =D7
Asian prefixes (WPX rules). For more information and Asian station
QSO
points--http://www.jarl.or.jp/English/4_Library/A-4-3_Contests/2003AA
_Rule.htm. Logs due Jul 31 (Oct 30 for phone) to aacw@jarl.or.jp (SSB
logs to aaph@jarl.or.jp) or JARL, All Asian DX Contest, 170-8073,
Japan.

His Majesty King of Spain Contest--SSB -  sponsored by the Union de
Radioaficionados Espa=F1oles (URE) from 1800Z Jun 21 - 1800Z Jun 22.
Frequencies: 160-10 meters using IARU Region 1 band plan. Categories:
SOAB, SOSB, and MS. Exchange: RST and serial number or EA province.
QSO Points: 1 pt/QSO. Score: QSO points x EA provinces counted once
per band. For more information, send email to ure@ure.es. Logs due 30
July to ure@ure.es or ea5al@ure.es or Vocalia Concursos URE, Apartado
Postal 87, 12200 Onda, Castellon, Spain.

ARRL Field Day - 1800Z Jun 28 - 2100Z Jun 29. Frequencies: All
amateur bands except 30, 17, and 12-meters. Exchange: operating
category and ARRL/RAC section. QSO Points: SSB--1 pt, CW and
digital--2 pts. See Web
site--http://www.arrl.org/contests/rules/2003/rules-fd-2003.html for
complete info on categories and scoring. New Class F (EOC station)
category this year. Entries due Jul 29 to FieldDay@arrl.org or Field
Day Entry, ARRL, 225 Main St., Newington,  CT 06111.

QRP ARCI Milliwatt Field Day - Follows ARRL Field Day rules, see
http://personal.palouse.net/rfoltz/arci/mwfd.htm for more
information.

Marconi Memorial HF Contest--CW--sponsored by ARI from 1400Z Jun 28
-- 1400Z Jun 29. Frequencies: 160 -- 10 meters, according to IARU
band plan. Categories: SO -LP (<100W) and --QRP (<5W), and MO.
Exchange: RST + serial number. QSO Points: 1 pt/QSO. Score: QSO
points x DXCC entities counted once per band. For more
information--http://www.qsl.net/ik6ptj/marconi.htm. Logs due 30 days
after the contest to ik6ptj@qsl.net or ARI sez. di Fano, PO Box 35,
I-61032 FANO (PS), Italy.

VHF CONTESTS

SMIRK QSO Party - sponsored by the Six Meter International Radio
Klub, 0000Z Jun 21 - 2400Z Jun 22. Frequencies: phone QSOs within the
lower 48 states and Canada above 50.150 MHz; only DX QSO's between
50.100 and 50.150 MHz. SO category only. No repeater QSOs. Exchange:
SMIRK number and grid square. QSO Points: SMIRK member - 2 pts,
non-member - 1 pt. Score: QSO points x grid squares. For more
information--http://www.smirk.org. Logs due Aug 1 to
contest@smirk.org or Dale Richardson, AA5XE , 219 US 377 South,
Junction, TX, 76849-5234.

NEWS & PRESS RELEASES

Contest stalwart Steve Miller N8SM suffered a fatal fall while
performing tower work this past Sunday...Father's Day. Memorial
services are scheduled for June 19th. Your editor was also clambering
around the high iron this weekend. Be safe, y'all, in the zeal to do
tower work. (Thanks, Bob W2CE and others)

Problems that prevented some early ARRL VHF QSO Party logs from being
accepted by the contest robot have been corrected. (Thanks, Tree
N6TR)

The New Jersey QRP Club and the NorCal QRP Club are merging to form
the American QRP Club. Both organizations are very active in
promoting QRP contesting and are hotbeds of great homebrew and kit
equipment. A club magazine, Homebrewer, will also be published. More
can be learned at http://www.amqrp.org. (Thanks, George N2APB)

While you are putting in time at the club Field Day effort, keep your
ears open for AH2G (and the other KH6 club stations out west). The
Marianas Amateur Radio Club on Guam will be operating on 80 - 10
meters. Part of the PAC section, they are as far away from the
continental US as you can get and still be a FD participant. A
special certificate will be available to those who contact AH2G
during FD. QSL via Marianas Amateur Radio Club, PO Box 445, Agana,
Guam 96932-0445. (Thanks, Carolyn KF6JVF and Duncan KF6ILA)

Last issue, I mentioned G3SXW's new book, "Up Two". This week, I'm
pleased to report that Idiom Press (http://www.idiompress.com) has
released the long-anticipated 3rd edition of Bob Locher W9KNI's "The
Complete DX-er". I'm about half-way done with it and even as a pretty
experienced DX-er, I find it engaging and informative. Highly
recommended. At the Dayton Hamvention, Bob's other company, Bencher
(http://www.bencher.com), was showing off a buttery smooth new CW
paddle with magnetic tension adjustment. I'm a big fan of
light-action paddles and this one felt as good as my Brown Brothers
paddle.

Here's an item that I stumbled upon at the Hamvention -- "The World's
Longest Yard Sale and Amateur Radio Special Event". As if Dayton
isn't big enough, U.S. 127 will be lined with the finest pre-owned
stuff from Ohio to Alabama. Gotta be some radio treasures in there
somewhere -- http://worldslongestyardsalespecialevent.com.

Also new at Dayton is the W9XT Unified Microsystems
(http://qth.com/w9xt)  VK-64 Combination Voice/CW Keyer. This
powerful little box contains both a voice and CW keyer (four messages
for each mode) with a full computer interface.

New Communications Solutions, LLC (http://www.ncsradio.com) has some
interesting audio accessories for those of us with lots of radios,
but only two ears and one mouth. The Multi-Patch NCS-2400 is a
10-by-5 patch panel, the Multi-Rx NCS-3230 an interesting receiver
audio combiner the features the ability to "position" the received
audio between left and right ears, and Multi-Switcher NCS-3240 a
master console for routing operator interface signals (audio, key,
PTT, etc.) between four radios.

N3FJP has released another batch of upgrades to his suite of
contesting software. These include changes in the user interface and
a number of new state QSO parties. For more information, see
http://www.n3fjp.com/.

RESULTS AND RECORDS

The Web version of the 2003 RTTY Roundup results is now open to ARRL
members. 2003 ARRL DX Contest pins arrived and have been shipped to
the Deserving. 2002 November CW Sweepstakes Certificates have also
been printed and mailed. (Thanks, Dan N1ND)

The Spring CW European Sprint Contest results are available at
http://www.qsl.net/eusprint. Congrats to Dave G4BUO who wins for the
third time and for the Golden Logs from OM5NA and RA3XO. (Thanks,
Paolo I2UIY)

TECHNICAL & TECHNIQUE

If you are looking for filter design software (either active or
passive), http://www.qfilter.com/filter.html has numerous links to
shareware, demo, and beta test versions.

Putting down some radials under the vertical in anticipation of what
should be steadily improving low-band conditions this fall?  What is
the best way to hold them down until the grass can grow over 'em?=20
Denizens of the TowerTalk reflector
(http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/towertalk) responded
with their customary gusto, suggesting numerous methods such as:
Landscaping or irrigation "staples" for holding down cloth or hose
wire coat hangars cut into short pieces
"U's" of galvanized fence or other cheap wire
large nails or gutter spikes, wrap wire around nail once (also works
in rocky soil)
large bobby pins ("available at YL Improvement Centers" -- K4OJ)
aluminum chain-link fence ties
No one mentioned a plastic owl. (Thanks, Towertalkians)

New at the Tucson Amateur Packet Radio (TAPR -- http://www.tapr.org)
Hamvention booth were two new development kits for DSP and SDR
(Software-Defined Radio). The KK7P DSPx module and KDSP10 Interface
are excellent resources for the ham radio developer. It was nice to
see Jan ZS6NW manning the booth, too!

Lowbanders are well aware of the K9AY family of filters and preamps.
AY Technologies (http://www.aytechnologies.com) has two new goodies
-- the RIP-1 Receiver Isolator/Protector (nice model number, eh?) to
ride herd on those fancy receiver inputs and the RAS-8x2. The RAS-8x2
is an 8-input, 2-output receive antenna switching system that
includes an AM BC filter and and optional preamp. You can also phase
more than one antenna. The devices are available through Array
Solutions (http://www.arraysolutions.com).

If you're into APRS, point your browser at http://www.byonics.com for
some really neat little kits and gadgetry from Byonics. The list
includes an APRS tracker kit (TinyTrak3), a weather encoder (WXTrak),
and a GPS format converter (GST-1) among other interesting things.

CONVERSATION

Making the Developer's Brains Hurt

Bob W2SR sent me an interesting question that I couldn't answer.
"What is the etiquette of exchanging or inquiring about information
for multiple contests during a single QSO? For example, exchanging a
FISTS number in the 10-10 contest? I have a great respect for not
doing something that will slow the other participant down, and this
is clearly out-of bounds in major contests."  With multiple contests
running every weekend, I'm surprised this hasn't come up before.

Maybe we need an Q-signal signifying, "Here comes some info for
another contest"  For instance, "QAC QRP 3692 PWR?" might mean, "My
alternate contest info for the QRP contest, number 3692, what's your
power?". A simple question mark added as in "QAC QRP?" would mean,
"Will you accept info for the QRP contest?" (This leads to the
obvious phone usage of "Quack QRP 3692.")

I have in the past answered someone else's "CQ Contest" and after I
get their exchange I send back the proper exchange followed quickly
by "and for the QRP contest, my number is 3692, what's your power".
That usually works and I'm sure that most of the participants don't
even write it down, but it satisfies my need for an exchange if I get
the necessary info back. A simple "No" will suffice as a reply in
either case.

On weekends without a major contest going, the same adrenaline rush
(or maybe that's just terror resulting from personal incompetence)
can be obtained by working as many of the contests going as you can.
Instead of just SO2R, you can be SO2R6C for single-op, two radios,
six contests! =20

To do this right you would have to have several copies of your
logging software running in different screen windows out of different
directories on your hard drive. As you tuned in stations on different
radios, you would have to use the Alt-keys to switch between windows
and enter the correct information.

Can you imagine running two pileups at once on different radios with
different exchanges for each one?  What if you moved one participant
from radio one to radio two and mixed him in with the pileup from the
other contest. What if he was in the other contest and you didn't
realize it?  What if he then crossed the International Date Line?=20
How would you call CQ?	"CQ Transylvania QSO Party, Atlantis Activity
Day, and Hunting Fondue Forks in the Air, bye for your calls."

Imagine the consternation of the casual operator who calls in as you
shake him down for a smorgasboard of information. "OK, Bob, thanks
for Podunk County, now what's your output power in milliwatts?	Your
sister's year of birth?  That's OK, double zero will do, now how
about your zip code and postal district?  Thanks, now your Irish
county of ancestry or favorite Scot plaid. OK, I'll just enter 'no
kilt', and what about the number of tubes in your first rig?  Bob?=20
Still there?"

I posed such a question to Tree, N6TR a couple of years ago, asking
if he could set up the SO2R mode of TR-LOG so that you could have
different contests on the different radios. He stopped and stared at
the ceiling for a while, then said, "My brain hurts," and walked off.
There's your answer, Bob.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The Contester's Rate Sheet wishes to acknowledge information from the
following sources:
WA7BNM's Contest Calendar Web page -
http://www.hornucopia.com/contestcal/ ARRL Contest page -
http://www.arrl.org/contests/
SM3CER's Web site - http://www.sk3bg.se/contest/

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
THE ARRL CONTEST RATE SHEET is published every other Wednesday (26=20
times each year), by the American Radio Relay League--The National=20
Association For Amateur Radio--225 Main St, Newington, CT 06111; tel=20
860-594-0200; fax 860-594-0259. Editor: Ward Silver, N0AX.

The ARRL Contest Rate Sheet offers a useful source of timely=20
information for both the active and casual contester. The Rate Sheet=20
includes information about events during the following two-week period,=20
time-sensitive news items, upcoming deadlines, and other news of=20
interest to contesters.

For permission to quote or reprint material from the ARRL Contest Rate=20
Sheet, send a request including the issue date, a description of the=20
material requested, and a description of where you intend to use the=20
reprinted material to the ARRL Editorial & Production Department:=20
permission@arrl.org.=20

Editorial questions or comments: Ward Silver, N0AX, rate-sheet@arrl.org
Delivery problems (ARRL member direct delivery only!):=20
rate-sheet-dlvy@arrl.org

The ARRL Contest Rate Sheet is available to ARRL members via email free=20
of charge directly from ARRL HQ. To subscribe, unsubscribe or change=20
your address for e-mail delivery:

ARRL members first must register on the Members Only Web Site,=20
http://www.arrl.org/members/. You'll have an opportunity during=20
registration to sign up for e-mail delivery of the ARRL Contest Rate=20
Sheet, W1AW bulletins, and other material. ARRL members may subscribe=20
to the ARRL Contest Rate Sheet by going to the Member Data Page at:=20
http://www.arrl.org/members-only/memdata.html?modify=3D1 Note that you=20
must be logged in to the site to access this page. Scroll down to the=20
section "Which of the following would you like to receive automatically=20
via email from ARRL?" Check the box for "ARRL Contest Rate Sheet=20
(biweekly contest newsletter)" and you're all set. Past issues of the=20
ARRL Contest Rate Sheet are available at=20
http://www.arrl.org/rate-sheet/. Issues are posted to this page after=20
publication.
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun 19 04:54:36 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Wed, 18 Jun 2003 22:54:36 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLB040 5 MHz allocation update
Message-ID: <20030619002200.7438.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB QST @ ARL $ARLB040
ARLB040 5 MHz allocation update

ZCZC AG40
QST de W1AW =20
ARRL Bulletin 40  ARLB040
>From ARRL Headquarters =20
Newington CT  June 18, 2003
To all radio amateurs=20

SB QST ARL ARLB040
ARLB040 5 MHz allocation update

When the five new 60-meter channels become available to US Amateur
Radio operators at midnight (12 AM) local time on July 3, the rules
will impose a new record-keeping requirement for hams. The
requirement applies only to those using something other than a
simple half-wave dipole on the 5 MHz allocation.

According to Part 97.303(s), a half-wave dipole on the 5 MHz
allocation will be presumed to have a gain of 0 dBd. ''Licensees
using other antennas must maintain in their station records either
manufacturer data on the antenna gain or calculations of the antenna
gain,'' states the newest addition to the FCC's Amateur Service
rules.

Because the new rules also require hams to run no more than 50 W
effective radiated power (ERP) on the new channels, the choice of
antenna becomes an important compliance factor. The FCC rules
stipulate, ''For the purpose of computing ERP, the transmitter PEP
will be multiplied (by) the antenna gain relative to a dipole or the
equivalent calculation in decibels.''

ARRL has posted a list of frequently asked questions (FAQ)
concerning 5 MHz operation on the ARRL Web site,
www.arrl.org/fandes/field/regulations/faq.html#sixty .
NNNN
/EX



From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun 19 10:20:17 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Thu, 19 Jun 2003 04:20:17 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/19/2003 4:20:17 AM
Message-ID: <200306190920.EAA25987@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 190913
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
400 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2003

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SW ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WAS 
SETTLING SOUTH...WITH RESULTING NORTHEAST FLOW FEEDING COOLER AND 
DRIER AIR INTO FORECAST AREA. MAIN COLD FRONT AT 06Z ANALYZED FROM 
FROM OK ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SERIES OF WEAK LOWS FROM CENTRAL IL TO 
NORTHERN OHIO. WEAK TROUGH WITH LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDED NORTH FROM WEST CENTRAL IL ACROSS EASTERN IA...RESULTING IN 
PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND FOG. SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE IS 
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS 
DOMINATES. 

1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SW ONTARIO AT 07Z PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS 
UPPER MI INTO WI TONIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO 
DISSIPATE AND DRIFT SOUTH AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM NORTHEAST THIS 
MORNING WITH FEW CU IN AFTERNOON. SURFACE TRAJECTORY AND H85 
TEMPERATURES POINT TOWARD COOLER GFS MOS HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 70S 
TODAY. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND DEEP DRY AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE 
CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS UPPER 30S OVER NW IL 
TO SET UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES 
WILL DIP WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS...WHICH WERE 45 TO 46 AT 
CLIMO SITES. WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S 
UNDER HIGH THIS MORNING...COOLER GFS LOWS IN UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S 
PREFERRED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.   ...SHEETS 

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES WHILE GRADUALLY 
SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN PERIOD. EXPECT A CONTINUATION 
OF GORGEOUS LATE JUNE WX FEATURING SEASONAL TEMPS...VERY COMFORTABLE 
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CLEAR SKIES. SOME INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS 
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS.

STRONG THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FOCUSES TO OUR WEST EARLY 
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE IN THE PLAINS.
EVENTUALLY THIS TAKES AIM AT CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS RESULT
INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS. 

SOME UNCERTAINTY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSITION OF FRONTAL ZONE.
WHAT IS CERTAIN HOWEVER IS THAT SUMMER WILL RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE 
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY REVVING UP. 
00Z/19 GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN LIFTING FRONT TO OUR NORTH BY MONDAY 
WITH HEAT BLAST OVER ENTIRE CWA...AND MID LEVEL WARMING CAPPING 
ATMOSPHERE THEREBY LIMITING PCPN CHANCES. UKMET AND ECMWF THOUGH 
FURTHER SOUTH SUGGESTING NORTH/SOUTH GRADIENT TO TEMPS WITH
DAILY THREAT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX 
AND HEAVY RAIN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO MAKE 
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED. ...MCCLURE



.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.


$$









From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun 19 12:16:13 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Thu, 19 Jun 2003 06:16:13 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/19/2003 6:16:12 AM
Message-ID: <200306191116.GAA17732@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 191110
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-201000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
555 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE 
OF NEXT WEEK. AN EAST...WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO LAY IN 
THE VICINITY OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS 
AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES 
WILL EJECT FROM A STORM SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND 
LIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL 
FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SOME SEVERE WEATHER...AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SEE HOT AND VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL: 
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

$$


05





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun 19 21:27:46 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Thu, 19 Jun 2003 15:27:46 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/19/2003 3:27:46 PM
Message-ID: <200306192028.PAA06043@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 192021
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2003

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY IS PROVIDING PLEASANTLY 
COOL AND LESS HUMID JUNE WEATHER.  NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW AT THE 
SURFACE IS ALSO TAPPING SOME LAKE AIR...HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN 
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ALOFT...FAIRLY HIGH 
AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NATION TODAY.  
MAIN UPPER TROF IN THE WEST IS DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA...WITH A STRONG RIDGE AXIS FROM NEW MEXICO TO CENTRAL 
MANITOBA.  THE MAIN EASTERN UPPER TROF IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST 
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. 

WITH HIGH PRESSURE RULING THE ROOST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.  
TONIGHT...GUIDANCE VALUES ARE NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS ALL OF THE 
AREA...AND THIS IS ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE GOING FORECAST.  A QUICK 
GLANCE AT EARLY AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOWS THAT THE AIR IS DEFINITELY 
DRY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR 40S...GIVEN SEVERAL HOURS OF CALM CONDITIONS 
OVERNIGHT.  BOTH THE GFS AND ETA HAVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN 
IOWA INTO WISCONSIN BY 09Z. THEREFORE...WITH HOLD CLOSE TO GOING 
FORECAST LOW TEMP FORECAST AND KEEP NEAR RECORD WORDING IN THE ZONE 
TEXT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A SLOW 
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS.  AFTER THE MOISTURE MOVES IN LATE IN 
THE WEEKEND...THE PLEASANTLY MILD SUMMER WEATHER IS DONE...WITH HOT 
AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY IN THE EXTENDED AND BEYOND. STILL...WE 
EXPECT LIMITED MOISTURE TO HOLD OFF ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL 
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LOW 
LEVEL JET FURTHER WEST AND MAIN DYNAMICS LIKELY WEST TOO...WILL 
REDUCE CHANCE POPS TO SLIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ...ERVIN

SUNDAY THE GOOD MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA...WITH THE AVN 
INDICATING DEWPOINTS ALREADY INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON 
OVER EASTERN IA...AND SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES.  THUS...HAVE 
INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN HALF 
OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE MOST OF THE DYNAMICS STILL 
BEING TO THE WEST AND NORTH.  WENT PRETTY WARM...ABOVE GUIDANCE MOST 
LOCATIONS...IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING 
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.

EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY  
THIS WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  GFS IS PROBABLY TOO STRONG WITH THIS ENTIRE 
SYSTEM...AND HAVE GONE MORE WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS... 
KEEPING THE SURFACE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AND THE SYSTEM A LITTLE 
WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH.  AS WE GET CLOSER INTO THIS PERIOD...COULD 
PROBABLY DROP SOME OF THESE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT AT THIS 
TIME COULD NOT RULE OUT ANY OF THEM...SO KEPT CHANCES FAIRLY LOW 
THROUGHOUT.  WENT REALLY WARM AND STICKY ON THE TEMPERATURES...AND 
KEPT THINGS WARM AS WE WILL BE IN OR CLOSE TO THE WARM SECTOR 
THROUGHOUT.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY WENT SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE 
GUIDANCE...BUT TAPERED BACK TOWARDS GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY...AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT CLOUDS WONT BE A 
FACTOR.  ...LE

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$











From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 20 10:44:25 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 04:44:25 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/20/2003 4:44:25 AM
Message-ID: <200306200944.EAA09575@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 200942
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2003

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN 
USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS INTO CWA THIS MORNING 
WITH TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO NEAR RECORD VALUES IN MID 40S THIS 
MORNING. AT UPPER LEVELS...SHARP WAS FROM OK TO ONTARIO AT 00Z WITH 
SHARP POSITIVE TILT TROUGH TO EAST AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO THE WEST 
COAST. TEMPERATURES MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE AS RIDGE AT 
SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN 
RETURN WITH WARMER AIR AND HUMIDITY DEVELOPS OVER WEEKEND. 

VERY DRY AIRMASS...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN 30S OVER EASTERN HALF 
CWA...WILL RECOVER QUICKLY UNDER FULL JUNE SUNSHINE AS CENTER OF 
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING.  
MIXING OUT TO H85 PUSHES HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 WHICH IS CLOSE TO GOING 
FORECAST AND MAV NUMBERS. TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES 
LITTLE...BUT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING 
LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW TOWARD MORNING. THIS WILL 
LIMIT DROP OFF TO LOW 50S...AT LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE. GOING HIGHS 
IN LOW TO MID 80S FOR SATURDAY LOOK GOOD WITH INCREASE IN HUMIDITY 
AND MORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COUNTER ACTING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR 
ADVECTION. STRONG H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION AFFECTS MAINLY WESTERN IA 
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH INCREASING DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...COULD 
SEE SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DRIFTING INTO FAR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE 
FIZZLING AND THUS LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO MAINLY WEST OF 
HIGHWAY 218.   SHEETS...    

...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AT 500MB A RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR 
MONDAY...AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WHEN A SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER. 
AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.  A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE 
AREA MONDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.  ADDITIONAL PRECIP 
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO DEBRIS FROM THE WEST.  PRECIP WILL 
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE CLIPS THE 
AREA.  THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN 
DYNAMICS AND THETA-E AXIS WILL STAY JUST WEST OF THE AREA...FROM 
KANSAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA...AND INTO MINNESOTA. DEW 
POINTS WILL BE UP THOUGH ACROSS THE DVN AREA...ESPECIALLY MONDAY 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ON WEDNESDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A 
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES 
FOR THURSDAY.  WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST AS 
IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK.  REA...

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$















From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 20 10:56:43 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 04:56:43 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/20/2003 4:56:43 AM
Message-ID: <200306200957.EAA11873@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 200954
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-210054-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
454 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BEING WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO CENTRAL IOWA.  SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KANSAS THROUGH WESTERN
IOWA...INTO MINNESOTA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SOME SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY WEST
OF OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT POSSIBLY AFFECTING IOWA PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE REGION...BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

$$

REA





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 20 21:59:17 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 15:59:17 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/20/2003 3:59:17 PM
Message-ID: <200306202059.PAA23687@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 202054
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
353 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2003

WX TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST WITH COOL AND PLEASANT WX. STRONG WAA ZONE SETS UP ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS SLIGHT EAST IN
THE EVENING WITH THETA E RIDGE IN SAME AREA. THIS IS WHAT HAS BEEN
HAPPENING IN NE/KS DURING THE DAY. TRANSLATED THIS MEANS WE SHOULD
SEE SOME SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EXTENDED GETS INTERESTING. SIGNALS IN THE
MODELS POINT TO MCS DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY WESTERN IA
AND MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEYOND MONDAY...
ECMWF/UKMET HAVE SLOWER MOVEMENT ON FRONT WITH IT NOT REALLY MOVING
THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY. BREAKS IN PRECIP ARE LIKELY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
PLENTY OF NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY IN THE COMING WEEK.

BIGGER MESSAGE IS THE RETURN OF H SQUARED AND POSSIBLY H CUBED EARLY
NEXT WEEK (HOT AND HUMID...HAZY HOT AND HUMID). HAVE OPTED TO GO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AS STRONG FLOW SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 20 23:07:59 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 17:07:59 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLD025 DX news
Message-ID: <20030619202445.4485.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB DX @ ARL $ARLD025
ARLD025 DX news

ZCZC AE25
QST de W1AW =20
DX Bulletin 25  ARLD025
>From ARRL Headquarters =20
Newington CT  June 19, 2003
To all radio amateurs  =20

SB DX ARL ARLD025
ARLD025 DX news

This week's bulletin was made possible with information provided by
N8PR, the OPDX Bulletin, QRZ DX, The Daily DX, 425DXnews, DXNL,
WA7BNM and Contest Corral from QST.  Thanks to all.

RODRIGUES ISLAND, 3B.  Robert, 3B9FR has been QRV using CW on 12
meters around 1100z, 17 meters around 1200z and 20 meters around
1730z.  QSL to home call.

CROATIA, 9A.  Bill, ON5JE will be QRV as 9A/ON5JE from Hvar Island,
IOTA EU-016, on June 21 to 29, and then from Rab Island, IOTA
EU-136, until July 17.  QSL to home call.

BAHAMAS, C6.  Peter, N8PR will be QRV as C6AHR from Andros Island,
IOTA NA-011, from June 21 to 23.  Activity will be on 80 to 10
meters, including the newer bands, using CW and SSB.  QSL to home
call.

PORTUGAL, CT.  Look for CT1GFK/p, CT1GPQ/p and CT2IHP/p to be QRV
from Culatra Island, IOTA EU-145, from June 20 to 22.  Activity will
be on 80 to 10 meters, and possibly the newer bands, using CW, SSB
and RTTY.  QSL to home calls.

GERMANY, DA.  DL7UXG and DL1RTW are QRV from Pellworm Island, IOTA
EU-042, from June 20 to 22.  This operation counts for GLHA-040
towards the German Lighthouses Award.  QSL to home calls.

LIECHTENSTEIN, HB0.  Klaus, DL7NS will be QRV as HB0/DL7NS from June
23 to 27.  Activity is CW only on the newer bands.  QSL via bureau.
Meanwhile, a number of members from the Hungarian Pannon DX Club and
the PVR Klub Puspokladany will be QRV as HB0/homecalls/p from June
22 to 27.  Activity will be on 40 to 10 meters, including the newer
bands, using CW, SSB and RTTY.  QSL to home calls.

ITALY, I.  Antonello, IK2DUW is QRV as ID9/IK2DUW from Filicudi
Island, IOTA EU-017, until June 23.  QSL to home call.

WAKE ISLAND, KH9.  Chuck, N4BQW/KH9 is here until mid July.  Of
late, he has been QRV on 40 and 20 meters during his spare time.
QSL via KB6NAN.

BANGLADESH, S2.  Bazlu, S21BR has been active on 20 meters around
1200z.  QSL to home call.

SOMALIA, T5.  Baldur, DJ6SI is QRV as T5X from Mogadishu.  He is
here for about a week.  Activity is on 160 to 10 meters using mostly
CW.  QSL to home call.

TURKEY, TA.  Look for TA1E, HB9DUR, IK2AQZ, IW2HUZ and SM0JHF to be
QRV as YM0KA from AS-099 from June 20 to 25.  They are active on all
HF bands, including 6 and 2 meters.  QSL via operators'
instructions.

EUROPEAN RUSSIA, UA.  Amateurs RN3QO, UA3QJJ, RA3OU, RW3QC, RW3QNZ,
RW3GW and RU3GN are active as UE3QFF until June 22 from the Natural
Reserve of Khopersky.  QSL via RN3QO.
          =20
AFGHANISTAN, YA.  Dan, JA1PBV is QRV as YA1BV from Kabul.  Hiro,
JA1CQT is QRV as YA1CQ and Sada, JR3EDE is QRV from club station
YA1JA.  Activity is limited to their work schedules.  Their licenses
are temporary and good until June 30.  QSL via operators'
instructions.

INDONESIA, YB.  YE9R is QRV from Rote Island, IOTA OC-214, for about
two weeks.  QSL via YC9BU.

IRAQ, YI.  Arik, YI/EK6DO has been QRV on 20 meters around 0300z.
QSL via K6EID.

THIS WEEKEND ON THE RADIO.  Kid's Day Contest, All-Asian DX CW
Contest, SMIRK Contest, His Majesty King of Spain SSB Contest, AGCW
VHF/UHF Contest and the West Virginia QSO Party are all scheduled
for this weekend.  Please see June QST, page 95 and the ARRL and
WA7BNM contest websites for details.
NNNN
/EX




From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 20 23:08:11 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 17:08:11 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA
Message-ID: <20030620154450.30029.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP025
ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP25
QST de W1AW =20
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 25  ARLP025
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 20, 2003
To all radio amateurs=20

SB PROP ARL ARLP025
ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA

Low sunspot numbers and geomagnetic disturbances in the
over-the-hill portion of the solar cycle continue. There are enough
sunspots for some good HF propagation, but we are about three years
past the cycle peak and about three and a half years ahead of the
next sunspot minimum. Complicating the situation is continued high
solar wind and flares, causing constant disturbance to geomagnetic
conditions. HF operators generally want stable geomagnetic indices,
such as a K index at 3 or below and a daily A index of 10 or less.

A chart in the recent NOAA Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar
Geophysical Data at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1450.pdf
shows the enhanced geomagnetic activity following the peak of a
solar cycle. Go to the last page of the report, and look at the bar
graphs for severe storm conditions, expressed as a planetary A index
over 100.

Note that for a few years after high solar activity the geomagnetic
indices are higher. Another report from last week at
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1449.pdf projects our position
in the current cycle. Look at the last page, and see a rising
historical planetary A index. Look at the previous few pages, and
see the smoothed sunspot and solar flux projections.

The next minimum appears sometime around the end of 2006. By the
way, this publication is full of interesting information and appears
weekly at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/index.html.

William Hartman, N6FB forwarded a question from the eHam.net forum
about the relation between A and K indices, as well as a few other
questions. The K index is a measure of geomagnetic stability at
various magnetometers around the globe. During periods of activity,
the higher latitudes tend to have higher K indices. For mid-latitude
K values, an index of 3 is normal. Below 3 is nice and quiet, and
above is disturbed. Each point in the K index, which is published
every three hours, represents a big change. It is a non-linear
system.

The A index is published daily, and is made up of the eight K
indices over 24 hours. It is a linear scale, so a one point change
doesn't represent a big jump in activity. For instance, if you had a
constant K index of 2 for 24 hours this would produce an A index of
7. A constant K index of 3 is equal to an A of 15, and K of 4 equals
27. The K usually changes every three hours, so the A is somewhere
in between the values shown here. A web page that shows the
relationship is at http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/GEOMAG/kp_ap.html.

You can see recent mid-latitude, high and planetary A and K indices
at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt. Note that on June
17 and 18, 2003 we had a planetary A index of 50 and 54, which is
very high.

June 17 and 18 activity was significant, and Al Olcott, K7ICW sent
an email commenting that the recent sporadic E skip on 144 and 222
MHz was of historic importance. He is in Las Vegas, and on June 17th
on 222 MHz, he worked K7MAC in Idaho. K7MAC was S7, and on 144 MHz
he was S9 into Nevada, a 544-mile path.

The June 17 and 18 numbers were the result of yet another robust
interplanetary shock wave, which swept over the earth around 0500z
on June 18. It was probably from a coronal mass ejection hurled from
sunspot 365 on June 15, the day that this sunspot reappeared.  In
May that same spot released two X-class solar flares, big ones.

Mark Williams, KF6YU wrote about an unusual experience on June 14
around 0000z. He was vacationing in Payson, Arizona and an AM
broadcast station he was listening to in his truck abruptly
disappeared. He switched to FM to listen to a Phoenix station, and
instead heard one in Sioux City, Iowa on that frequency. When he got
back to his cabin, he listened to dead air on HF, and the whole
phenomenon was over in about 30 minutes.

Someone had a question about what Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA meant
when he referred to IMF in an email quoted in last week's bulletin.
IMF in this context doesn't refer to global banking or third-world
debt, but the Interplanetary Magnetic Field. When a strong solar
wind or interplanetary shock wave from the sun blasts earth, the IMF
tends to point south. This has been covered several times in this
bulletin over the past year, but now may be a good time to review
the IMF and its significance at
http://spaceweather.com/glossary/imf.html.

In addition, in last week's bulletin we hoped to come up with some
images showing the effects on the spectrograph at Project JOVE
during an x-ray event on June 9. Jim Sky, KH6SKY sent the link,
http://radiosky.com/wccro_spec_030609.html.  The strip charts were
produced with Radio-Skypipe software. Check
http://radiosky.com/skypipeishere.html for information.

Back to recent indices as well as a projection for the next few
days, we had average sunspot numbers drop nearly 37 points from last
week to 112.7 this week. Solar flux was also down. Not surprisingly
given the conditions and all the reports, the average planetary A
index increased from 21 to 30. Space weather was remarkably mild on
Thursday, June 19 with mid latitude and planetary K indices down to
2 or 3. However, the forecast shows more of the same enhanced
activity over the next few days, with a planetary A index of 25, 25,
20 and 20 for June 20-23. Solar flux should remain around 125 on
those days. On June 20 we should enter a solar wind stream flowing
from a coronal hole, which should cause those high A indices.

Sunspot numbers for June 12 through 18 were 168, 149, 91, 111, 91,
80, and 99, with a mean of 112.7. 10.7 cm flux was 163.5, 151,
133.5, 128.7, 122.6, 121.9, and 120.4, with a mean of 134.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 11, 32, 20, 32, 50, and 54,
with a mean of 30.
NNNN
/EX


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun 21 05:06:30 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 23:06:30 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLK048 Keplerian data
Message-ID: <20030620223213.27291.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB KEP @ ARL $ARLK048
ARLK048 Keplerian data

ZCZC SK48
QST de W1AW =20
Keplerian Bulletin 48  ARLK048
>From ARRL Headquarters
Newington, CT  June 20, 2003
To all radio amateurs=20

SB KEP ARL ARLK048
ARLK048 Keplerian data

Thanks to Con, W5BWF, for the following Keplerian data. =20

Decode 2-line elsets with the following key:
1 AAAAAU 00  0  0 BBBBB.BBBBBBBB  .CCCCCCCC  00000-0  00000-0 0  DDDZ
2 AAAAA EEE.EEEE FFF.FFFF GGGGGGG HHH.HHHH III.IIII JJ.JJJJJJJJKKKKKZ
KEY: A-CATALOGNUM B-EPOCHTIME C-DECAY D-ELSETNUM E-INCLINATION F-RAAN
G-ECCENTRICITY H-ARGPERIGEE I-MNANOM J-MNMOTION K-ORBITNUM Z-CHECKSUM

AO-07
1 07530U 74089B   03171.15729493 -.00000029  00000-0  10000-3 0  1780
2 07530 101.7373 217.6974 0011994 202.9107 157.1431 12.53565540308425
AO-10
1 14129U 83058B   03170.35025022  .00000000  00000-0  10000-3 0  9445
2 14129  26.2063 144.7673 5986359   1.6010 359.5399  2.05865499122559
UO-11
1 14781U 84021B   03171.52473965  .00000639  00000-0  95255-4 0  1809
2 14781  98.1323 146.5639 0009655 171.1707 188.9674 14.78307005 34254
UO-14
1 20437U 90005B   03170.79070001  .00000066  00000-0  40399-4 0  2595
2 20437  98.2538 208.4908 0010156 197.3618 162.7210 14.31275405699838
AO-16
1 20439U 90005D   03170.57569522 +.00000145 +00000-0 +69905-4 0 09267
2 20439 098.2968 220.6607 0010538 204.9811 155.0871 14.31517305699840
FO-20
1 20480U 90013C   03170.85338597 -.00000019  00000-0  20918-4 0  5032
2 20480  99.0655 110.9186 0540742  89.1956 277.1045 12.83333572626070
UO-22
1 21575U 91050B   03171.17430464  .00000179  00000-0  70961-4 0  8292
2 21575  98.1511 157.2788 0008247 119.8589 240.3421 14.39229691625776
AO-27
1 22825U 93061C   03171.51910435  .00000119  00000-0  63255-4 0  5855
2 22825  98.2596 194.9254 0007355 258.6847 101.3516 14.28983265507292
IO-26
1 22826U 93061D   03170.62007067  .00000137  00000-0  70148-4 0  3739
2 22826  98.2628 195.2392 0008033 258.8415 101.1854 14.29210108507218
RS-15
1 23439U 94085A   03171.15641369 -.00000018  00000-0  70350-3 0  7080
2 23439  64.8135 204.8681 0145660  91.6442 270.1176 11.27548642349300
FO-29
1 24278U 96046B   03170.90274954 -.00000001 +00000-0 +37646-4 0 06011
2 24278 098.5583 305.7686 0349932 262.1005 094.0280 13.52882012337710
ISS
1 25544U 98067A   03171.43426723  .00013261  00000-0  16847-3 0  1368
2 25544  51.6325   3.9066 0006911 277.6624 148.5529 15.59730693261516
SO-41
1 26545U 00057A   03170.83989591  .00000810  00000-0  12649-3 0  4895
2 26545  64.5601  19.1172 0041832 219.4377 140.3654 14.79243917147156
MO-46
1 26548U 00057D   03170.67150061  .00001045  00000-0  14966-3 0  4909
2 26548  64.5582  11.1507 0035340 220.7382 139.1067 14.81610814147307
AO-40
1 26609U 00072B   03164.53390554 -.00000201  00000-0  10000-3 0  3374
2 26609   8.9717  43.9710 7960116 184.2907 157.7601  1.25598246 12037
NO-44
1 26931U 01043C   03170.87500581  .00000144  00000-0  89292-4 0  5027
2 26931  67.0472 303.3061 0006844 275.0871  84.9449 14.29175813 89687
SO-50
1 27607U 02058C   03171.14268666  .00000586  00000-0  11812-3 0  1546
2 27607  64.5509 189.3011 0038588  54.6680 305.8011 14.70140501 26679

Keplerian bulletins are transmitted twice weekly from W1AW. =20
The next scheduled transmission of these data will be Tuesday,=20
June 23, 2003, at 2230z on Baudot and AMTOR.
NNNN
/EX



From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun 21 05:06:37 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 23:06:37 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] The ARRL Letter, Vol 22, No 25
Message-ID: <20030621030828.19921.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

***************
The ARRL Letter
Vol. 22, No. 25
June 20, 2003
***************

IN THIS EDITION:

* +League urges informed comments in Broadband Over Power Line
* +60-meter rules add new record-keeping requirement
* +ARISS logs its 100th school group contact
* +Well-known contester, DXer dies after fall from tower
* +FCC sets aside ham ticket in false distress calls investigation
* +MARS operations under way in Iraq
*  Solar Update
*  IN BRIEF:
     This weekend on the radio
     ARRL Certification and Continuing Education course registration
     Correction
     Michigan gets new Section Manager
    +Space Station may be on the air during Field Day 2003
     ARRL's 2002 Annual Report is hot off the press
     FO-20 back in the land of the living
     FCC announces improvements to the Electronic Document Management
System

+Available on ARRL Audio News

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

=3D=3D>ARRL URGES INFORMED COMMENTS IN FCC BPL INQUIRY

The ARRL is urging amateurs to file well-thought-out, informed comments
when responding to the FCC's Broadband Over Power Line (BPL) Notice of
Inquiry (ET Docket 03-104). The FCC published its NOI on May 23. The NOI
asks how the FCC should regulate the delivery of broadband services to
homes and businesses using electrical wiring to conduct high-speed =
digital
signals. While the FCC has dubbed this technology Broadband over Power
Line, it's more commonly known as Power Line Carrier or PLC.

BPL would use building and/or overhead power lines to conduct HF and
low-VHF digital signals to network computers. The FCC has expressed its
unabashed enthusiasm for BPL, which it views as a competitive Internet
access point. Utilities consider BPL as another means to use existing
infrastructure to generate additional revenue.

The NOI is not asking if BPL technology should be permitted. Under
existing FCC rules, BPL systems may be built and used in the US right =
now.
The FCC is asking how the rules might be changed "to promote and =
encourage
new BPL technology," in the words of the NOI.

Present FCC Part 15 rules say that carrier-current systems--including
BPL/PLC--need to meet the general radiated emission limits for =
unlicensed
"intentional emitters." While the rules permit BPL at significant power
levels, utilities would prefer that the FCC authorize even higher power
levels. BPL systems under development and in field trials use spectrum
between 1.7 and 80 MHz, but the NOI also asks whether BPL should operate
on other parts of the spectrum as well.

As of mid-June, nearly 1000 comments already had been filed in the
proceeding. The ARRL has urged amateurs who comment to outline the
important uses they make of Amateur Radio and the impact strong
interference from BPL could have at HF and low-VHF amateur frequencies.

Electric utility companies will operate many, if not most, BPL systems.
ARRL members who have had experience dealing with power line =
interference
and utilities' responses to complaints also may want to describe those
experiences in their comments to the Commission.

Amateurs filing comments to the FCC NOI might want to consider these
topics and points:

* Amateur Radio is a valuable resource that must be protected.

* Describe the uses you make of Amateur Radio, especially those with a
public service or emergency communication aspect.

* The present FCC Part 15 limits for this technology already can result =
in
substantial interference potential to amateur frequencies.

* BPL systems that radiate on wide swaths of spectrum and occupy entire
neighborhoods have greater interference potential than localized =
systems,
such as switching power supplies or electric motors.

* The FCC has promised to protect licensed users of the spectrum. We =
must
hold them to that promise.

For more information, see "Understanding the FCC's Broadband Over Power
Line (BPL) Notice of Inquiry"
<http://www.arrl.org/news/features/2003/06/19/2/>. An ARRL white paper,
"Calculated Impact of PLC on Stations Operating in the Amateur Radio
Service" <http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/HTML/plc/files/C63NovPLC.pdf>
provides technical details. The ARRL's Broadband Over Power Line =
resource
page contains links to worldwide studies and other resources.

The ARRL has initiated an important Spectrum Defense Fund campaign to
support activities to educate government officials on the potential =
threat
that BPL poses to Amateur Radio. To find out more, or to support ARRL's
efforts in this area, visit the ARRL's secure BPL Web site
<https://www.arrl.org/forms/development/donations/bpl/>

The complete NOI is available on the FCC Web site
<http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/FCC-03-100A1.doc>.

Comments are due on or before July 7, 2003. Reply comments are due on or
before August 6, 2003. Interested parties may submit electronically =
filed
comments via the FCC's Electronic Comment Filing System (ECFS)
<http://www.fcc.gov/cgb/ecfs/>. Under ECFS Main Links, click on "Submit =
a
Filing." In the "Proceeding" field, enter "03-104" and complete the
required field. Comments may be typed into a form or you may attach a =
file
containing your comments. Comments also may be submitted via e-mail, per
instructions on the ECFS page.

=3D=3D>60-METER RULES ADD NEW RECORD-KEEPING REQUIREMENT

When the five new 60-meter channels become available to US Amateur Radio
operators at midnight (12 AM) local time on July 3, the rules will =
impose
a new record-keeping requirement for hams. The requirement applies only =
to
those using something other than a simple half-wave dipole for an =
antenna
on the 5-MHz allocation.

According to =A797.303(s), a half-wave dipole on the 5 MHz allocation =
will
be presumed to have a gain of 0 dBd. "Licensees using other antennas =
must
maintain in their station records either manufacturer data on the =
antenna
gain or calculations of the antenna gain," the newest addition to the
FCC's Amateur Service rules says.

Because the new rules also require hams to run no more than 50 W =
effective
radiated power (ERP) on the new channels, the choice of antenna becomes =
an
important compliance factor. The FCC rules stipulate, "For the purpose =
of
computing ERP, the transmitter PEP will be multiplied with [sic] the
antenna gain relative to a dipole or the equivalent calculation in
decibels."

If you use a half-wave dipole--about 87 feet 3 inches for the "middle"
channel according to the formula--setting your transmitter's power =
output
power at up to 50 W peak envelope power (PEP) should ensure compliance.

Under no circumstances may amateurs on 5 MHz radiate more than 50 W ERP =
in
any direction, so those choosing to employ gain antennas will have to =
"do
the math" and calculate their ERP. They also will have to keep a record =
of
such antenna gain calculations on file. This might include documentation
such as output from a computer modeling program for a homebrew antenna
design. For example, an amateur using an array for 5 MHz exhibiting a
calculated or modeled gain of 3 dB would have to cut power to 25 W PEP =
to
comply with the new rules.

Operating on 60 meters is the subject of the July 2003 QST "It Seems to =
Us
. . ." editorial <http://www.arrl.org/news/features/2003/07/01/1/> by =
ARRL
CEO David Sumner, K1ZZ. "If we demonstrate that we can use [the 60-meter
channels] responsibly, cooperatively and in the public interest, there =
is
no reason we cannot seek expanded access at an appropriate time," Sumner
wrote. "If your personal operating practices are inconsistent with that,
please do yourself and everyone else a favor and confine your operating =
to
the traditional bands."

The FCC Report and Order in ET Docket 02-98 is available on the FCC's =
Web
site =
<http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/FCC-03-105A1.doc>.
The ARRL has posted a list of frequently asked questions concerning 5 =
MHz
operation on the ARRL Web site
<http://www.arrl.org/FandES/field/regulations/faq.html#sixty>

=3D=3D>AMATEUR RADIO ON THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION LOGS 100TH =
SCHOOL
CONTACT

The Amateur Radio on the International Space Station (ARISS) program
reached a milestone June 12 with its 100th school group contact. Doing =
the
honors was Expedition 7 NASA Science Officer and Flight Engineer Ed Lu,
KC5WKJ. Lu took the controls of NA1SS aboard the space outpost to answer =
a
dozen questions from students gathered at Lively District Secondary =
School
in Sudbury, Ontario, Canada.

"I would choose to go on a mission to Mars," Lu told the students,
answering a question about what mission he would pick if he had the
choice. "Because I think that's the place in our solar system that has =
the
best chance of having life besides our Earth, and I would love to go =
there
to try and find that." Lu said that while a human spaceflight mission to
Mars is not yet on NASA's schedule, he hopes to one day have the
opportunity to journey there. "Maybe one of you kids down there will get =
a
chance to do it if I don't get to go."

Lu says he sees a lot of things that are "incredibly interesting" from =
his
vantage point in space, including looking down at Earth and viewing the
northern and southern lights. But he said he hasn't been inspired to =
want
to live in space indefinitely.

Aboard the ISS since late April, Lu is part of the first two-person crew
headed by Expedition 7 commander Yuri Malenchenko, RK3DUP. They arrived
aboard a Russian Soyuz vehicle, which also serves as the escape vehicle
for ISS crew members. The Expedition 7 crew is scheduled to return to
Earth in October.

Asked whom he would like to have accompany him into space if he could =
pick
one person, Lu replied, "If I could bring one person with me, it would =
be
my fiancee, and if I said anything else, boy would I be in trouble."

On Earth, Steve Gorecki, VE3CWJ, served as control operator. He had
assistance from members of the Sudbury Amateur Radio Club, who helped to
install antennas on the roof of the school's gymnasium and equipment
inside. Students participating in the contact came from several area
schools.

"It definitely had an impact on the kids," Gorecki told ARRL after the
contact, "but it only dawned on them later what they'd actually done."
Students involved were in grades 7 through 12.

On June 14, pupils at another Canadian school--=C9cole primaire de
l'Apprenti-Sage in Qu=E9bec--enjoyed a successful ARISS contact. Among =
other
topics, the primary schoolers wanted to know how long Lu would be in
space, if it hurt during liftoff on the Soyuz, his favorite activities =
in
space and how the crew "drives" the ISS. Youngsters at the school had =
been
studying space and space-related topics leading up to their scheduled
contact. Members of the Club Radio Amateur de Qu=E9bec (VE2CQ)
<http://www.craq.qc.ca/> set up and managed the Earth station for the
direct contact.

Ga=EBtan Tr=E9panier, VE2GHO, handled control op duties as some 500 =
students
and visitors looked on. A dozen students each got to ask a question =
before
the ISS zipped over the horizon. "It was a resounding success," said
Daniel Lamoreaux, VE2KA, the Radio Amateurs of Canada Quebec director =
who
was on hand for the event. Lamoreaux is a member of the ARISS =
Educational
Outreach/School Selection Committee.

On June 18, students at Kuise Elementary School in Amagasaki, Japan,
chatted with Lu during a direct contact between NA1SS and 8N3ISS. Among
other topics, youngsters wanted to know what country's time the crew
followed aboard the ISS, whether zero gravity was "convenient" and if =
zero
gravity changed the intensity of odors.

ARISS is an international project with participation by ARRL, NASA and
AMSAT.

=3D=3D>WELL-KNOWN CONTESTER, DXer DIES IN FALL FROM TOWER

Well-known contester and DXer Steve Miller, N8SM (ex-WD8IXE), of =
Prosper,
Texas, died June 15 as a result of a fall while working on his Amateur
Radio tower. He was 38. An ARRL member, Miller had extensive experience =
in
tower work and antenna installation. With the assistance of several =
other
hams, Miller had erected a 136-foot tower on his property and installed
several antennas as part of his overall effort to build a competitive
contesting station.

Details of the mishap that claimed Miller's life are not available.
According to unofficial accounts, Miller had been working on his tower =
the
morning of June 15, and, after a lunch break, told his wife, Radhicar,
that he had another hour's work left. Later, she heard a noise from the
yard and found her husband lying on the ground. Miller's wife called =
911,
but the rescue squad was unable to revive him.

ARRL antenna guru Dean Straw, N6BV--who had corresponded with Miller on
several topics--was among those expressing shock and sadness at his =
death.
"Steve was always most responsive, and he always had the most =
intelligent
comments and questions concerning whatever technical topic we were
discussing," said Straw. "I will miss his innate, contagious =
enthusiasm."

First licensed as WD8IXE in 1977 at the age of 12, Miller--an Ohio
native--enjoyed contesting and DXing. He was routinely active during the
CW weekends of the CQ World Wide, ARRL International DX and ARRL =
November
Sweepstakes events. He also operated as J68AG from St Lucia in the
Caribbean and participated in a few DXpeditions, including several =
stints
as a member of the J6DX team in the 1980s and 1990s. He was an ARRL DXCC
Honor Roll member, with 332 entities confirmed (mixed).

In addition to ARRL, Miller belonged to the North Texas Contest Club
<http://www.qsl.net/ntcc/> and 10-10 International
<http://www.ten-ten.org/. Besides ham radio, he enjoyed playing jazz
saxophone.

An Ohio State graduate, Miller worked for Texas Instruments as part of =
its
broadband wireless access group in Dallas. Survivors include his wife =
and
their young daughter. A memorial service was held June 19.

=3D=3D>HAM'S TICKET SET ASIDE AS FCC INVESTIGATES ALLEGATIONS OF FALSE
DISTRESS CALLS

The FCC's Wireless Telecommunications Bureau (WTB) has set aside the
nearly month-old Technician-class license of a California man while it
looks into allegations that the now-former licensee may have made false
marine distress calls. In a June 3 letter, FCC Special Counsel Riley
Hollingsworth notified Michael V. Swift of San Ramon of the WTB's
action--taken on the bureau's own motion. The FCC granted Swift the call
sign KG6QOB on May 1 and canceled his ticket May 29.

In his letter, Hollingsworth said the cancellation was "based upon
evidence that you made numerous false distress calls on Channels 16 and
22A Marine frequencies." Hollingsworth warned Swift that in view of the
WTB's action, he had no authority to operate Amateur Radio transmitting
equipment.

Hollingsworth told ARRL that agents in the FCC's San Francisco =
office--in
cooperation with the US Coast Guard--reportedly tracked transmissions on
the marine channels to Swift's residence, where they interviewed him.

The FCC also sent a Warning Notice May 30 to Ronald E. Shapiro, N2CQT, =
of
Kerhonkson, New York, citing information alleging that the licensee
"deliberately interfered with and harassed operators on 3.906 MHz" on =
May
24.

"It appears that you were operating under some type of impairment,"
Hollingsworth wrote, "and during the transmissions played music, made
transmissions to no one in particular and deliberately transmitted on =
top
of ongoing communications." The FCC alleges the transmissions, which =
began
at about 1 AM, continued for almost an hour.

Hollingsworth gave Shapiro 20 days to explain the circumstances of the
operation detailed in the Warning Notice.

=3D=3D>MARS OPERATIONS BEGIN IN IRAQ; MORE OPERATORS SOUGHT

The Military Affiliate Radio System (MARS) is poised to start the flow =
of
messages between troops in Iraq and Kuwait and their families and =
friends
back home. The first MARS licenses have been issued to soldier stations =
in
Iraq and Kuwait, and a broad range of frequencies has been assigned for
MARS use. MARS also is operational in Afghanistan.

Daniel Wolff, assistant affiliate MARS coordinator for Europe, Africa =
and
Southwest Asia, reports that four soldier licenses had been issued as of
June 1 but he hopes there will be many more as active hostilities =
continue
to wind down. These new operations will open up MARSgram and phone patch
communications for troops stationed beyond the reach of e-mail and cell
phones. Just about every company-size unit overseas has high frequency
radio equipment in house--or, more likely, "in tent."

While preparedness to provide emergency or contingency communications
backup now occupies first place, handling "morale and welfare traffic" =
is
another role MARS members still can play. The only drawback is the
shortage of stations to receive it. MARSgrams are being handled at least
one-way. Those addressed to Iraq or Kuwait are transmitted by radio to =
the
nearest MARS gateway station, then refiled into the Military Postal =
System
for delivery. This shaves days or weeks off the time it takes a message
going by mail.

Information on sending MARSgrams is available on the Army MARS Web site
<http://www.netcom.army.mil/MARS>. Now that most hostile action has
ceased, Wolff says, MARS should be among the organizations assuming a
humanitarian and support role--if only there were more stations in the
region.

FCC-licensed amateurs may apply for an overseas MARS license much as =
they
would in the US, except that some additional information is required.
Commanding officers may also apply for a MARS station license for their
units and are exempt from the FCC Amateur Radio license requirement, he
explained. Full information and application forms are available to
overseas applicants by e-mailing Wolff <aem1wf@qsl.net> or for US =
amateurs
by visiting the US Army MARS Web site
<http://www.netcom.army.mil/MARS/>.--Bill Sexton, N11N/AAA9PC

=3D=3D>SOLAR UPDATE

Heliophile Tad "That Lucky Ol' Sun" Cook, K7RA, Seattle, Washington,
reports:

Low sunspot numbers and geomagnetic disturbances in the over-the-hill
portion of the solar cycle continue.  There are enough sunspots for some
good HF propagation, but we are about three years past the cycle peak =
and
about three and a half years ahead of the next sunspot minimum.
Complicating the situation is continued high solar wind and flares,
causing constant disturbance to geomagnetic conditions.  HF operators
generally want stable geomagnetic indices, such as a K index at three or
below and daily A index of ten or less.

Average sunspot numbers dropped nearly 37 points from last week to 112.7
this week.  Solar flux was also down.  Not surprisingly given the
conditions and all the reports, average planetary A index increased from
21 to 30.  Space weather was remarkably mild on Thursday, June 19 with =
mid
latitude and planetary K indices down to two or three.  However, the
forecast shows more of the same enhanced activity over the next few =
days,
with a planetary A index of 25, 25, 20 and 20 for June 20-23.  Solar =
flux
should remain around 125 on those days.  On June 20 we should enter a
solar wind stream flowing from a coronal hole, which should cause those
high A indices.

Sunspot numbers for June 12 through 18 were 168, 149, 91, 111, 91, 80, =
and
99, with a mean of 112.7. 10.7 cm flux was 163.5, 151, 133.5, 128.7,
122.6, 121.9, and 120.4, with a mean of 134.5. Estimated planetary A
indices were 11, 11, 32, 20, 32, 50, and 54, with a mean of 30.

=3D=3D>IN BRIEF:

* This weekend on the radio: Kid's Day, the All Asian DX Contest (CW), =
the
SMIRK Contest, the AGCW VHF/UHF Contest and the DIE Contest are the
weekend of June 21-22. JUST AHEAD: ARRL Field Day
<http://www.arrl.org/contests/rules/2003/rules-fd-2003.html>, the =
Marconi
Memorial HF Contest, the QRP ARCI Milliwatt Field Day and the His =
Majesty
the King of Spain Contest (SSB) are the weekend of June 28-29. The RAC
Canada Day Contest is July 1. The Michigan QRP July 4th CW Sprint is =
July
4-5. See the ARRL Contest Branch page <http://www.arrl.org/contests/> =
and
the WA7BNM Contest Calendar
<http://www.hornucopia.com/contestcal/index.html> for more info.

* ARRL Certification and Continuing Education course registration:
Registration for the Radio Frequency Interference (EC-006) and Satellite
Communications (EC-007) courses opens Monday, June 23, 12:01 AM EDT =
(0401
UTC). Registration will remain open through Sunday, June 29. Classes =
begin
Tuesday afternoon, July 1. Registration for the ARRL HF Digital
Communications (EC-005) and VHF/UHF--Life Beyond the Repeater (EC-008)
courses remains open through Sunday, June 22. Those interested in taking
an ARRL Certification and Continuing Education (C-CE) course in the =
future
can sign up to be advised via e-mail in advance of registration
opportunities. To take advantage, send an e-mail to prereg@arrl.org. On
the subject line, indicate the course name or number (eg, EC-00#) and =
the
month you want to start the course. In the message body, provide your
name, call sign, and e-mail address. Please do not send inquiries to =
this
mailbox. To learn more, visit the ARRL Certification and Continuing
Education Web page <http://www.arrl.org/cce> and the C-CE Links found
there. For more information, contact Certification and Continuing
Education Program Coordinator Howard Robins, W1HSR, hrobins@arrl.org.

* Correction: In the item "Hudson, Atlantic Directors pulling out all
stops on New York antenna bill," the telephone number for Senate =
Majority
Leader Joe Bruno was incorrect. The correct number is 518-455-3191.

* Michigan gets new Section Manager: The ARRL Michigan Section has a new
Section Manager. Former SM Dale Williams, WA8EFK, of Dundee, will pick =
up
the reins from Debbie Kirkbride, KA8YKK, who has stepped down. Williams'
appointment was effective June 17. "Debbie is resigning for health
reasons, and hopes to stay as active as the health issues allow her to
be," said ARRL Field and Educational Services Manager Rosalie White,
K1STO, in announcing Williams' appointment. "She regrets having to give =
up
the position for now." Kirkbride was named Michigan SM last July after
former SM Dick Mondro, W8FQT, became the Great Lakes Vice Director.
Williams' appointment came with the recommendation of ARRL Great Lakes
Director Jim Weaver, K8JE, Vice Director Mondro and Kirkbride. Williams
had served previously as Michigan's SM from 1992 until 1996. He's now an
Assistant Great Lakes Division Director and heavily involved in =
emergency
communications. Michigan ARRL members may contact Williams via e-mail
<dalew@dundee.net> or telephone, 734-528-3232.

* Space Station may be on the air during Field Day 2003: The Expedition =
7
crew may be on the air from NA1SS during ARRL Field Day
<http://www.arrl.org/contests/rules/2003/rules-fd-2003.html> the weekend
of June 28-29. "We don't know if the crew will be active or not, but =
give
it a try," said ARISS Mentor Charlie Sufana, AJ9N. Sufana advises "good
operating sense" and recommends that FD operators wait for the crew to
finish a previous contact before calling. "You may be only hearing a
station or two," he pointed out, "but they are hearing hundreds." Look =
for
the ISS during Field Day during these time slots: Northern and
Southeastern US, June 28, 1821-1842 UTC; Southern and Northeastern US,
June 29, 1059-1117 UTC; Western US, June 29, 1233-1253 UTC; Northeastern
US, June 29, 1723-1744 UTC; and Northwestern and Southern US, June 29,
1859-1920 UTC. ARRL Contest Branch Manager Dan Henderson, N1ND, notes =
that
Field Day contacts with the ISS crew do not count for satellite QSO =
bonus
points, just contact credit. "Valid satellite contacts must be
Earth-satellite-Earth contacts through a satellite transponder or
repeater," he explained. (See Field Day rule 7.3.7.)

* ARRL's 2002 Annual Report is hot off the press! The League's 2002 =
Annual
Report is currently available to members free of charge upon request. =
The
report offers an overview of League activities for the year, messages =
from
ARRL President Jim Haynie, W5JBP, and Chief Executive Officer David
Sumner, K1ZZ, along with ARRL's complete audited financial statements =
for
2002. Send requests--including your name, call sign and mailing
address--to Media Relations Manager Jennifer Hagy, N1TDY, =
jhagy@arrl.org.
The report also is available on-line as a PDF document
<http://www.arrl.org/announce/annualreport/02ar.pdf>.

* FO-20 back in the land of the living: The Japan Amateur Radio League
(JARL) FO-29 satellite command team has succeeded in recovering the
satellite, which had been experiencing problems. The FO-29 command team
staff succeeded June 16 in commanding the satellite's transmitter back =
on.
FO-29 was reported sending a strong CW beacon, and the transponder is =
also
available. The command team said the problem was likely caused by recent
major solar flares. The command team continues to analyze data and is
seeking FO-29 reception reports. Send telemetry reports to the command
team, <lab2@jarl.or.jp>. The analog transponder (Mode JA) uplink is
145.900 to 146.000 MHz; the downlink is 435.800 to 435.900 MHz. CW
telemetry is at 435.795 MHz. FO-29 was launched on in 1996. For more
information, visit the JARL Web site <http://www.jarl.or.jp>.

* FCC announces improvements to the Electronic Document Management =
System:
The FCC has announced that its Electronic Document Management System
(EDOCS) query page has been reorganized and redesigned to make it easier
to search for FCC documents. A new feature linking errata to original
documents also has been put into place. EDOCS now permits either "quick"
or "advanced" searches. The quick search has a limited number of fields
and displays the results in a short form. The quick search is best if =
you
already know a docket number, delegated authority (DA) number or FCC
number, or if you know specific words that appear in the document's =
title
or description. The quick search also lets you search on a range of =
dates.
The advanced search is much like the current EDOCS query, allowing users
to search on a detailed list of data elements--individually or in
combination. Adding fields to the search makes it more precise, and =
fewer
documents are retrieved. Results for the advanced search can be =
displayed
in three formats: condensed, full, and citation. The citation format
contains citations to the FCC Record Index, FCC Reports 2nd Series, and
the Federal Register. Links to EDOCS are available via the "search" link
in the menu bar at the top of the FCC home page <http://www.fcc.gov> and
on the resources page <http://www.fcc.gov/resources.html>. EDOCS is also
listed on the Search Tools page at http://www.fcc.gov/searchtools.html.
For assistance with EDOCS, or to report problems, send an e-mail to =
EDOCS
Help, edocshelp@fcc.gov or call (202) 418-0265.

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
The ARRL Letter is published Fridays, 50 times each year, by the =
American
Radio Relay League--The National Association For Amateur Radio--225 Main
St, Newington, CT 06111; tel 860-594-0200; fax 860-594-0259;
<http://www.arrl.org>. Jim Haynie, W5JBP, President.

The ARRL Letter offers a weekly e-mail digest of essential news of
interest to active amateurs. The ARRL Letter strives to be timely,
accurate, concise, and readable. Visit ARRLWeb <http://www.arrl.org> for
the latest news, updated as it happens. The ARRL Web site
<http://www.arrl.org/> offers access to news, informative features and
columns. ARRL Audio News <http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter/audio/> is a
weekly "ham radio newscast" compiled from The ARRL Letter.

Material from The ARRL Letter may be republished or reproduced in whole =
or
in part in any form without additional permission. Credit must be given =
to
The ARRL Letter and The American Radio Relay League.

=3D=3D>Delivery problems (ARRL member direct delivery only!):
letter-dlvy@arrl.org
=3D=3D>Editorial questions or comments: Rick Lindquist, N1RL, =
n1rl@arrl.org
=3D=3D>ARRL News on the Web: <http://www.arrl.org>
=3D=3D>ARRL Audio News: <http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter/audio/> or call
860-594-0384

=3D=3D>How to Get The ARRL Letter
The ARRL Letter is available to ARRL members free of charge directly =
from
ARRL HQ. To subscribe, unsubscribe or change your address for e-mail
delivery:
ARRL members first must register on the Members Only Web Site
<http://www.arrl.org/members/>. You'll have an opportunity during
registration to sign up for e-mail delivery of The ARRL Letter, W1AW
bulletins, and other material. To change these selections--including
delivery of The ARRL Letter--registered members should click on the
"Member Data Page" link (in the Members Only box). Click on "Modify
membership data," check or uncheck the appropriate boxes and/or change
your e-mail address if necessary. (Check "Temporarily disable all
automatically sent email" to temporarily stop all e-mail deliveries.)
Then, click on "Submit modification" to make selections effective. =
(NOTE:
HQ staff members cannot change your e-mail delivery address. You must do
this yourself via the Members Only Web Site.)

The ARRL Letter also is available to all, free of charge, from these
sources:

* ARRLWeb <http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter/>. (NOTE: The ARRL Letter will
be posted each Friday when it is distributed via e-mail.)

* The QTH.net listserver, thanks to volunteers from the Boston Amateur
Radio Club: Visit Mailing Lists@QTH.Net
<http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/letter-list>. (NOTE: The ARRL
cannot assist subscribers who receive The ARRL Letter via this
listserver.)


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun 21 21:55:45 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sat, 21 Jun 2003 15:55:45 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/21/2003 3:55:45 PM
Message-ID: <200306212055.PAA27281@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 212049
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
350 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2003

SURFACE RIDGE ON LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DRAWING EAST AWAY FROM THE 
AREA...WITH PRESSURES FINALLY BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
CWA.  SURFACE LOW OVER NW SOUTH DAKOTA SHIFTING ONLY VERY SLOWLY 
EAST...WITH TROUGHING SOUTH FROM IT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  SOME 
INTERESTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...TRIGGERED BY 
A SHORTWAVE/VORT LOBE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. ON 
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS IS A RATHER MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAN IS 
USUAL FOR SUMMER...WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
AND A STRONG TROUGH JUST COMING ON SHORE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. 

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST INCLUDE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES 
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...AND HOT AND MUGGY 
CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.  

12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL...WITH 
GENERALLY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ON THE MAJOR FEATURES...AND HAVE GONE 
FOR THE MOST PART WITH A BLEND. TONIGHT...CONDITIONS REMAIN 
DRY...WITH ONLY CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD AND A LITTLE AC TOWARDS 
MORNING.  WITH DEWPOINTS RISING ACROSS THE AREA AND WARM AIR 
ADVECTION FINALLY STARTING...TEMPS OUGHT TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER 
THAN THEY HAVE BEEN LAST FEW MORNINGS.  

SUNDAY PRECIPITATION MAY BREAK OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER 
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IA...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF IT MAKING IT INTO THE WESTERN CWA BEFORE EVENING.  
HOWEVER...THE MCS THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN MN DURING 
THE NIGHT...WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE 
CWA...OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE 
POPS FOR NOW...BUT AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE DEFINED...MAY BE ABLE 
TO UP POPS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  MONDAY TO 
BE A GRUNGY...HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO RE-FIRE 
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO BE SENT OUT BY THE EARLY MORNING MCS.  
HAVE JUST GONE WITH BLANKET CHANCE POPS. 
...LE

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AS THE WARM SECTOR FLOWS 
UNINHIBITED NORTH INTO THE REGION.  THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION WILL 
BE TIMING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TIME A COLD 
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.  THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 
SMALLER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AS A THE 
MAIN UPPER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MONDAY 
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...TO START...INSTABILITY IS NOT IN 
QUESTION...AS HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED FROM IOWA ON 
SOUTH.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LITTLE CONSISTENCY AS TO WHETHER 
THE AREA WILL BE CAPPED OR ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP.  THE PLACEMENT OF 
THE CAP WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO THE FORECAST AS SEASONALLY STRONG 
INSTABILITY IS RELEASED ON ITS NORTHERN/EASTERN EDGE DURING THIS 
PERIOD.  MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY 
EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR THE THREAT OF AN MCS MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN 
IOWA. WILL SHADE HIGHES POPS NORTH...TO SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH.  FOR 
NOW...WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY WITH MAIN FOCUS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. 
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...SO 
WILL LEAVE CHANCE GOING CENTRAL AND NORTH.  BY WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN UPPER TROF APPROACHES ALONG WITH A FORMITABLE 
COLD FRONT.  WILL GO 40-50% WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AS THIS 
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  MORE THAN ANOTHER OTHER PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR 
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND SEVERE WEATHER.  IN 24 HOURS OR 
SO...CONFIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW ONE OF THESE TWO PERIODS TO BUMPED UP 
TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT GAINS 
CONFIDENCE. 

WILL GO DRY SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR MEX GUIDANCE. 

ERVIN...


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$













From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun 21 15:25:13 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sat, 21 Jun 2003 09:25:13 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/21/2003 9:25:13 AM
Message-ID: <200306211424.JAA12219@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 211423
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
400 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2003

LAST OF COOL AND COMFORTABLE NIGHTS WINDING DOWN AS CWA STILL UNDER 
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI. 
TEMPERATURES STILL SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE...THEN TSRA CHANCES 
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD AS WESTERN TROUGH FEEDS GULF MOISTURE INTO AREA 
WITH RETURN OF JUNE HEAT AS WELL. 

DRY AIR AND DRY GROUND ALLOWED DIURNAL SWING OF 35 TO 40 DEG 
FRIDAY...BUT GRADUALLY RISING DEWPOINTS AS DAY WEARS ON WILL DAMPER 
THIS SOME TODAY. COUNTERACTING THIS WILL BE WARMER START BY AT LEAST 
5 TO 10 DEG THIS MORNING ALONG WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR 
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH LATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...TRENDED 
CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS IN LOW TO MID 80S. TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION 
STARTS TO KICK IN AT H85...BUT THETA E RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WELL TO 
WEST ALONG MO RIVER NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN. WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT 
EAST TO WEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH WEAKER FLOW IN EAST ALLOWING 
SOME DECOUPLING AND FAVORED COOLER ETA MOS GUIDANCE WITH MID 50S 
EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOME WEAK FORCING AND LOW 
QPF TONIGHT WITH VORT MAX SWEEPING THROUGH IN SW FLOW...BUT LACK OF 
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND BEST WAA AT H85 TO WEST SHOULD KEEP ANY 
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WELL TO NORTHWEST UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN 
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS KEPT IN FAR WEST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HIGHEST 
AND ALSO WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. 
CONTINUED EAST TO WEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...ANTICIPATING ABOUT 5 
DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO WARMER START AND CONTINUED WARM 
ADVECTION. SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT SCATTERED POPS OVER EASTERN IA AND 
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE AS AREA MAY GET BRUSHED BY MCS LATE. 

SHEETS...

...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD.  A TROF 
AXIS WILL SIT ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO MINNESOTA THRU TUESDAY...WITH A 
CHANCE OF MAINLY LATE NIGHT CONVECTION EACH NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE 
BEING MONDAY NIGHT...WITH AN MCS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL OR NORTH 
CENTRAL IOWA.  THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A COLD FRONT 
WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRECEEDED BY CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A 
SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY.  ALL IN ALL...COULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF 
FROM PRECIP DEFICITS WE'RE CURRENTLY RUNNING.  

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR PRECIP. TUESDAY'S CHANCES 
COULD BE QUESTIONABLE...AND MAY NEED TO BE LOOKED AT.  LOWERED THE 
TEMPS A NOTCH FOR COLD FRONTS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THRU 
FRIDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE COOLED OFF FURTHER.  

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$











From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun 21 10:39:42 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sat, 21 Jun 2003 04:39:42 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/21/2003 4:39:42 AM
Message-ID: <200306210939.EAA23635@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 210928
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-220528-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
428 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SUNDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL
BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY...
EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME...PROVIDING AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

$$

REA





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sun Jun 22 10:02:47 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sun, 22 Jun 2003 04:02:47 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/22/2003 4:02:47 AM
Message-ID: <200306220902.EAA02429@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 220900
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD FOR THE AREA. LAST GASP OF CANADIAN HIGH TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. CURRENT MCS IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL NOT
AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS BETTER THETA E AXIS/INSTABILITY
REMAIN JUST WEST OF CWFA. TONIGHT THE FUN BEGINS. MCS SHOULD FIRE
VICINITY OF KOMA AND MOVE EAST ACROSS IOWA DURING THE NIGHT. THIS
IN RESPONSE TO THETA E AXIS/INSTABILITY MOVING EAST AS LLJ REVS UP.
DECAYING MCS TO AFFECT AREA DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY AS
HUMIDITY ARRIVES.

MONDAY NIGHT IS THE SERIOUS FUN. LLJ CRANKS UP TO 50+ KNOTS WITH
THETA E AXIS/INSTABILITY IN PLACE. MODELS GIVE STRONG SIGNALS FOR
ANOTHER BUT STRONGER MCS. EXPECT A SEVERE MCS TO DEVELOP SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT HIGH PLAINS MCS AND AFFECT THE AREA...POSSIBLY AS A
BOW ECHO. MAIN THREAT TO BE WIND AS FREEZING LEVELS TO BE VERY
HIGH. HOWEVER ENOUGH SHEAR PRESENT THAT A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY TO BE HOT AND HUMID WITH FIRST 90S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 105 AS WELL. DIDN/T PLAY WITH
THE EXTENDED AS TOO MUCH TO CONSIDER IN CLOSE.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sun Jun 22 11:02:44 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sun, 22 Jun 2003 05:02:44 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/22/2003 5:02:44 AM
Message-ID: <200306221002.FAA11184@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 221000
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-231000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING ONE LAST
DAY OF PLEASANT WEATHER. TONIGHT...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS AND MOVE ACROSS IOWA. THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN
IOWA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING HIGH WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

MONDAY MORNING...THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DISSIPATE. BOUNDARIES LAID OUT BY THIS COMPLEX WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER
IS LIKELY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT DUE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN TO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE...
WITH HIGH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE
TO VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR FEEDING INTO THE STORM SYSTEM.

ON TUESDAY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HEAT INDICES SHOULD
APPROACH 105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN IS A THREAT FROM EACH
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
SEVERE WEATHER COULD HAPPEN WITH ANY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE
HIGH WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND IS NOT ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED FOR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

$$

SF






From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sun Jun 22 21:03:15 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sun, 22 Jun 2003 15:03:15 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/22/2003 3:03:15 PM
Message-ID: <200306222003.PAA16136@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 222000
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

SYNOPSIS-
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NATIONS MID 
SECTION...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HEAT PROVIDING SEVERAL CHANCES 
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEK. THIS MORNING...TROPICAL 
MOISTURE HAS MOVED NORTH TO WESTERN IOWA ON LLJ AXIS...NOTED BY 
850MB DEWPOINTS OF 17C AT OAX 12Z.  PLENTY OF CONVECTION IS FIRING 
IN THIS MOIST AXIS...BORDERED TO THE WEST BY A MID LEVEL WARM AIR 
CAP. THIS "CAP OF THE DAY" IS MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED ALONG THE 10C 
700MB TEMP CONTOUR FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. 
ALOFT...SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROFS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE 
REGION.  ONE IS LOCATED AT 12Z OVER WESTERN IOWA.  THE NEXT UPSTREAM 
IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT 15Z.  THIS TROF HAS A 60KT 500MB 
JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND GOOD DRYING BEHIND IT ON WATER 
VAPOR SAT. 

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
NEITHER HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL (ETA/GFS) IS DOING VERY 
WELL WITH THE ONGOING STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF 
IOWA TO NORTHEAST KANSAS.  IRONICALLY...THE NGM IS DOING QUITE 
WELL...AND HAS BY FAR THE BEST QPF FIELDS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THIS 
IS QUITE DISCOURAGING AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL PLAY A VERY 
IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS TO WHERE STRONG CONVECTION 
WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK. A LOOK AT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED "CAP OF 
THE DAY" 700MB TEMP...EASTERN IOWA REMAINS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND EAST 
OF THIS LEVEL THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY.  WE FELL THAT A BROKEN 
LINE/AREA OF CONVECTION WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WELL 
DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING 
TIMING WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE 
THREAT. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TONIGHTS ACTIVITY IS 
LIKELY TO LAY DOWN IN THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY.  THIS MAY 
BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IF THEY 
CAN BREAK THE CAP.  WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY 
TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DECAYING MCS 
MOVING IN.  SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY EXIST DURING THIS 
PERIOD IF MID LEVEL CAPPING IS LESS THAN LATEST 12Z MODELS 
SUGGEST.   
ERVIN...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS THE TIME FRAME IN WHICH THE FRONT WILL 
FINALLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA.  FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT EARLY 
WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR KEEPING ACTIVITY TO THE WEST AND 
NORTH...BUT WILL MOVE TO OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA BY 
AFTERNOON...AND WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.  
CURRENT THINKING IS TO BRING THE FRONT THROUGH CWA LATE WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG AND 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  PRECIP SHOULD DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY 
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOT 
MOVING THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY...HAVE HUNG ON TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  CAN FINALLY GO DRY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.  
BEHIND FRONT WOULD BE VERY TEMPTING TO GO QUITE COOL...BUT THIS HIGH 
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THIS LAST EVENT...AND HIGHS REACHED 
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THE DAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVED 
THROUGH...SO WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO BE THE ONLY REAL DRY DAYS OUT OF THE WHOLE 
FORECAST...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE 
EAST...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN.  WE THEN TRANSITION TO 
ZONAL FLOW ON THE GFS FOR SUNDAY.  SURFACE SOUTHWEST FLOW 
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR SUNDAY...AND TEMPS OUGHT TO TREND BACK 
TOWARDS WARMER THAN NORMAL.  
LE...

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$















From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun 23 10:25:54 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2003 04:25:54 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/23/2003 4:25:54 AM
Message-ID: <200306230925.EAA27929@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 230916
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
416 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

MCS DEVELOPED ABOUT WHERE EXPECTED BUT HAS REMAINED NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. SEE NO REASON WHY WITH WILL MOVE AND OTHER
THAN CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH RISING DEW POINTS. FAR WEST PART
OF THE CWFA MAY SEE THE CAP WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

TONIGHT NEXT MCS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE CAP ALONG THE +12 TO +13 H7
ISOTHERM. MCS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST. FAR NORTHERN THIRD OF CWFA MAY GET BRUSHED IF CONVECTION
PUSHES SOUTH ON ANY COLD POOL. TUESDAY TO BE UGLY WITH A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. CLOSE BUT NOT QUITE ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR HEAT AS COMPUTED INDICES TO BE IN THE 100 TO 105
RANGE. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN ZONES. MOST OF CWFA TO REMAIN CAPPED
TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR NORTH THIRD WHICH MAY GET BRUSHED AGAIN BY
AN MCS.

DIDN/T PLAY WITH EXTENDED DUE TO LACK OF TIME. MODELS STILL PROG
FRONT TO STAGGER INTO CWFA IN THE WED/THU TIME PERIOD.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun 23 11:03:39 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2003 05:03:39 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/23/2003 5:03:39 AM
Message-ID: <200306231003.FAA03747@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 231000
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-241000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS WEST OF A DYERSVILLE IOWA TO
WYACONDA MISSOURI LINE MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT WOULD
DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AFTER SUNSET ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

ON TUESDAY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HEAT INDICES SHOULD
APPROACH 105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP IN THE
PLAINS AND RACE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES AT SEEING ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HIGH WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO A THREAT DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION. WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAIN IS A THREAT
FROM EACH ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. SEVERE WEATHER IS
ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD LISTEN TO LATER FORECASTS THIS WEEK AS
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN BECOME BETTER DEFINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT ANY TIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

$$

SF






From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun 23 22:57:59 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2003 16:57:59 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/23/2003 4:57:59 PM
Message-ID: <200306232157.QAA02163@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 232136
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-241000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
436 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY HOT AND HUMID 
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HEAT INDICES SHOULD APPROACH 105 DEGREES DURING 
THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS AND 
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AREAS NORTH OF 
HIGHWAY 30 HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT SEEING ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE 
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HIGH WINDS AND LARGE 
HAIL. 

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE 
THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES 
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. 

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD LISTEN TO LATER FORECASTS THIS WEEK AS THE 
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER BECOME BETTER DEFINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. SPOTTER 
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

$$

ERVIN









From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun 23 23:03:16 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2003 17:03:16 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/23/2003 5:03:16 PM
Message-ID: <200306232203.RAA03797@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 232142
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
440 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

APOLOGIES FOR THE LATE AFD...

ISOLATED TSRA CAUSED A LITTLE EXCITEMENT AROUND THE AREA WITH A 
SMALL MCV LIKE FEATURE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.  THIS MCV 
ALSO USHERED IN THE SOUP...WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING RISEN FROM THE MID 
50S TO MID 60S THIS MORNING...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S BY 21Z.  UPPER 
LEVEL FEATURES NOT AS COHERENT AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH THE 
850MB JET OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...POISED TO PUSH LOTS OF 
WARM MOIST AIR OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE OUGHT TO BE ANOTHER MCS FORMING TONIGHT OVER 
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND MN...WHICH OUGHT TO MOVE SLOWLY 
EAST/SOUTHEAST TO AFFECT MN AND WI OVERNIGHT.  DO NOT EXPECT IT TO 
GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO APPROACH CWA BY MORNING.  

MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND FRONT PASSAGE 
THROUGH THURSDAY. 

12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL...EXCEPT NONE 
SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP.  

TONIGHT HAVE GONE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MCV SCOOTING OFF 
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE NEW MCS NOT GETTING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO 
AFFECT THE AREA BY MORNING.  WARM AND STICKY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS 
ONLY FALLING INTO THE 70S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.   THIS HOT AND 
STICKY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY 
NIGHT...WITH THE CAP WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...KEEPING  
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CWA.   WITH THESE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS 
INTO THE 90S...HEAT INDEXES OUGHT TO BE PUSHING 100 IN A FEW 
LOCATIONS.  HAVE MENTIONED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE PACKAGE.

THEN...WEDNESDAY THE DYNAMICS MANAGE TO FINALLY WORK INTO THE 
AREA...WITH GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.  HAVE GONE WITH SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE 
FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.  
THURSDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP BEHIND THE 
FRONT...BUT HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW AS THIS IS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT DUE 
TO THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT...DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH FINALLY MOVING THROUGH.  BY FRIDAY...DRY AIR MOVES IN QUITE 
WELL AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WELL TO THE EAST....SO NO PRECIP 
NEEDED FOR THEN.  

THE WEEKEND...FOR NOW...LOOKS DRY. THERE IS A SMALL FEATURE TO MOVE 
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...WHICH 
MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT THE AREA.  PRECIP CHANCES ARE PRETTY 
SMALL...SO HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW UNTIL THIS BECOMES 
MORE DEFINED.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

LE
LE







From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun 24 10:54:56 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 24 Jun 2003 04:54:56 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/24/2003 4:54:55 AM
Message-ID: <200306240956.EAA11514@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 240953
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
453 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2003

THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS A 500MB RIDGE OVER THE MID
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A TROF WEST OVER THE ROCKIES.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN MN INTO WESTERN
NE.  AN MCS IS CURRENTLY SKIRTING OUR NORTHWEST SECTIONS...ON THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THETA-E AXIS...AND WITH A VORT MAX.
THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM
THE AREA...BUT WILL BRIEFLY TOUCH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
AND COULD SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS I-80 BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS A COLD FRONT IN
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE...AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY.  ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE HIGH HEAT INDICES TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY MAINLY IN THE MID 90S AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S...AND LOWER 70S DEW POINTS BOTH DAYS...
HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE IN THE AFTERNOONS.  A
10 TO 20 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE BOTH DAYS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF.

THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS AGREE ON HIGH CAPES AND LI'S THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT WITH WARM 700MB TEMPS AND THE THETA-E RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF
THE AREA.  CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD FIRE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN...INTO WESTERN WI.  AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  STRONG 700MB VV'S AND 300MB DIVERGENCE FROM 00Z
TO 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANYING THE THETA-E AXIS...WILL FAVOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY DAWN THURSDAY.  AFTER THAT...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THICKNESSES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  A WEAK SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

WILL REMOVE PRECIP FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  WILL ALSO LOWER
TEMPS A NOTCH OR TWO FOR THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun 24 11:20:53 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 24 Jun 2003 05:20:53 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/24/2003 5:20:53 AM
Message-ID: <200306241020.FAA16340@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 241017
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-250717-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
517 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 7 AM
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MANCHESTER TO DUBUQUE TO FREEPORT...ASSOCIATED
WITH A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH PEA SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL MOVE INTO AREAS WEST OF
MANCHESTER...CEDAR RAPIDS...AND WILLIAMSBURG DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS BY LATE EVENING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS OF UP
TO 60 MPH.  RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

Lightning Awareness Week - June 22-28, 2003.
at http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov

$$

REA





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Tue Jun 24 21:47:15 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Tue, 24 Jun 2003 15:47:15 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/24/2003 3:47:15 PM
Message-ID: <200306242047.PAA29175@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 242043
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
344 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT DOWNRIGHT SICKENING 
DEWPOINTS OF 75 TO 80 HAVE ADVECTED THEIR WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND TEMPS ARE ALREADY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 
90S...WITH A FEW SITES AS WARM AS 97.  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATING THAT SIGNIFICANT WARMING...THIS TIME THROUGH 
ADVECTION...HAS OCCURRED AT THE MID LEVELS ALSO...WITH A WHOPPER OF 
A CAP OF 22 DEGREES C ABOUT 830MB.  WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO GET SOME 
SIGNFICANT TRIGGER THROUGH HERE BEFORE CONVECTION IS GOING TO BREAK 
OUT TODAY OR TONIGHT.  THE FRONT IS STILL WELL TO OUR WEST...AND NOT 
DUE THROUGH UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.  LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN IA HAVE 
BRONKEN THE CAP THERE...BUT THAT IS NEAR THE FRONT AND THE CAP IS 
WEAKER *SLIGHTLY* THERE.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL OVER THE 
ROCKIES...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FALLS OVER THE PLAINS TO 
INDICATE THAT IT IS MOVING VERY RAPIDLY.  

12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL...WITH MOST OF 
THEM GOING A LITTLE OVERBOARD ON THE PRECIP TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOO 
BAD OTHERWISE.  NGM APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM ITS USUAL TOO FAR 
INTO THE COLD AIR BIAS...AND THE AVN HAS SOME BULLSEYES OF QPF 
ACROSS MN.  HAVE...IN GENERAL GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE ETA AND 
AVN...WHICH ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

TONIGHT THE CAP SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND MCS ACTIVITY TO 
THE NORTH OF THE CWA...AND HAVE GONE DRY FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH KEPT A 
10 POP FAR NORTH IN CASE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MN AND WI SNEAK SOUTH 
OVERNIGHT.  

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD BE VERY INTERESTING...WITH THE 
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WITH THE FRONT 
ACTING AS TRIGGER...WE SHOULD FINALLY GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS...AN 
MAY EVEN GET SOME SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH WINDS 
FROM A SQUALL LINE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BEHIND THE 
FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION 
FROM FORMING...DESPITE THE LITTLE WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON 
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY SHOULD ALSO BE DRY...THOUGH THE 
TIMING OF THE WAVE DUE THROUGH ON SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED 
TO SEE IF IT SPEEDS UP INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS ARE CONTINUING THE TREND OF BRINGING A WEAK LITTLE WAVE 
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICS TO THE 
NORTH.  HOWEVER... THIS LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN IT DID 
YESTERDAY...AND NOW WITH A LITTLE BIT OF CONTINUITY THERE IS MORE 
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION.  SO...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD IN A LOW 
CHANCE OF TSRA FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK RIDGE SHOULD 
KEEP THINGS QUIET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING 
TEMPS IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.  TUESDAY A DECENT SURFACE LOW 
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES 
OVER THE CWA.  THE GFS WANTS TO BRING A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE 
AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE 
DRY FOR NOW AND LATER SHIFTS CAN WATCH TO SEE IF IT DEVELOPS ANY 
DECENT CONTINUITY.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$
LE
















From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 25 01:57:04 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Tue, 24 Jun 2003 19:57:04 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLK049 Keplerian data
Message-ID: <20030624221914.7271.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB KEP @ ARL $ARLK049
ARLK049 Keplerian data

ZCZC SK49
QST de W1AW =20
Keplerian Bulletin 49  ARLK049
>From ARRL Headquarters
Newington, CT  June 24, 2003
To all radio amateurs=20

SB KEP ARL ARLK049
ARLK049 Keplerian data

Thanks to Con, W5BWF, for the following Keplerian data. =20

Decode 2-line elsets with the following key:
1 AAAAAU 00  0  0 BBBBB.BBBBBBBB  .CCCCCCCC  00000-0  00000-0 0  DDDZ
2 AAAAA EEE.EEEE FFF.FFFF GGGGGGG HHH.HHHH III.IIII JJ.JJJJJJJJKKKKKZ
KEY: A-CATALOGNUM B-EPOCHTIME C-DECAY D-ELSETNUM E-INCLINATION F-RAAN
G-ECCENTRICITY H-ARGPERIGEE I-MNANOM J-MNMOTION K-ORBITNUM Z-CHECKSUM

AO-07
1 07530U 74089B   03174.66878800 -.00000029 +00000-0 +10000-3 0 02147
2 07530 101.7377 221.1698 0012071 195.7210 164.3488 12.53565591308869
AO-10
1 14129U 83058B   03172.29312118  .00000055  00000-0  10000-3 0  9456
2 14129  26.2110 144.4827 5986224   2.1150 359.4340  2.05867991122590
UO-11
1 14781U 84021B   03175.58588787  .00000844  00000-0  12339-3 0  1841
2 14781  98.1327 150.6649 0009729 158.8446 201.3168 14.78313267 34850
UO-14
1 20437U 90005B   03174.77546309  .00000027  00000-0  25496-4 0  2628
2 20437  98.2537 212.2779 0010550 184.4752 175.6322 14.31276166700408
AO-16
1 20439U 90005D   03175.18885003  .00000113  00000-0  58016-4 0  9293
2 20439  98.2969 225.0710 0010454 191.6855 168.4096 14.31518606700500
FO-20
1 20480U 90013C   03174.90729036 -.00000027  00000-0  49045-5 0  5058
2 20480  99.0651 114.2160 0540796  80.0465 286.1205 12.83333583626596
UO-22
1 21575U 91050B   03174.92849749 +.00000202 +00000-0 +78164-4 0 08399
2 21575 098.1515 160.8496 0008529 111.0967 249.1133 14.39231448626314
AO-27
1 22825U 93061C   03175.23017056  .00000084  00000-0  49361-4 0  5881
2 22825  98.2597 198.4426 0007432 245.6326 114.4081 14.28983978507829
IO-26
1 22826U 93061D   03174.12052265 -.00000041 +00000-0 -92028-8 0 03830
2 22826 098.2628 198.5593 0008036 246.2833 113.7509 14.29210056507718
RS-15
1 23439U 94085A   03174.52670831 -.00000038 +00000-0 +11880-3 0 07300
2 23439 064.8126 199.4181 0145579 090.9196 270.8409 11.27548487349685
FO-29
1 24278U 96046B   03175.41407756  .00000016  00000-0  55474-4 0  6025
2 24278  98.5594 309.6792 0349896 250.4086 105.8968 13.52882120338323
ISS
1 25544U 98067A   03175.47880571  .00013998  00000-0  17674-3 0  1491
2 25544  51.6330 343.5691 0006839 291.8626 180.4437 15.59838159262147
SO-41
1 26545U 00057A   03175.30186680  .00000521  00000-0  88321-4 0  4935
2 26545  64.5597   5.3974 0041545 218.3619 141.4532 14.79249233147812
MO-46
1 26548U 00057D   03174.58635970 +.00000707 +00000-0 +10732-3 0 04945
2 26548 064.5581 359.0680 0035077 220.1735 139.6765 14.81617399147894
AO-40
1 26609U 00072B   03174.05204150 -.00000246  00000-0  10000-3 0  3388
2 26609   9.0372  42.5079 7960337 187.3573 141.2769  1.25597814 12153
NO-44
1 26931U 01043C   03174.86393488 -.00000005  00000-0  30765-4 0  5057
2 26931  67.0476 293.0361 0006814 275.2326  84.7997 14.29176825 90258
SO-50
1 27607U 02058C   03175.08808844  .00000377  00000-0  83923-4 0  1575
2 27607  64.5511 177.3439 0038953  52.5998 307.8629 14.70144767 27258

Keplerian bulletins are transmitted twice weekly from W1AW. =20
The next scheduled transmission of these data will be Friday,=20
June 27, 2003, at 2230z on Baudot and AMTOR.
NNNN
/EX



From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 25 10:59:43 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 25 Jun 2003 04:59:43 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/25/2003 4:59:43 AM
Message-ID: <200306250959.EAA08251@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 250957
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
445 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OFF NORTHWEST/WESTERN IA MCS AND ANY INCOMING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO BE WILD CARD IN TODAY'S FORECAST...OTHERWISE A
DAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WOULD BE ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

WELL ADVERTISED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED IN A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST FASHION FROM NORTHEAST MN...INTO SOUTHWEST KS...IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP IN SOUTHWEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW. BUT SFC
PRESSURE RISES BUILDING ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALONG WITH UPPER
WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STARTING TO SHOW SOME PUSH EASTWARD...
SIGNALING SFC BOUNDARY TO EVENTUALLY MAKE HEADWAY AND SWEEP EAST.
GENERAL SHORT RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS FROPA ACRS MS RVR
AROUND 10Z OR SO THU MORNING...WITH A NIGHT FULL OF CONVECTION
BEFORE THEN OUT AHEAD OF IT.

SOME SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP CWA DRY TODAY UNTIL CONVECTION BLEEDS
OUT OF CENTRAL IA INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON...
WHILE A FEW OTHERS LIGHT UP THE WESTERN HALF BY MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON. AM CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING FROM NORTHWEST IA ACTIVITY AND INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY
MID MORNING...SETTING UP POTENTIAL FOCAL POINT FOR 25-30 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW TO PLOW INTO AND POSSIBLE PUNCH THOUGH
WEAKENING CAP. THUS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR WEST HALF
OF THE CWA FOR TODAY TAKING INTO ACCOUNT POSSIBLE MID MORNING
CONVECTION IN VCNTY OF OUTFLOW...AND THEN BETTER ORGANIZED POTENTIAL
OF STORMS ERUPTING IN CENTRAL IA AND MAKING HEADWAY INTO THE WEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A LINEAR MCS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SIMILAR THERMAL AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON
AS YESTERDAY...AS LONG AS DEBRIS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NOCTURNAL AC
DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ERODE AS DAY PROGRESSES FOR MAXIMUM HEATING.
BETTER PROGGED DEEP CONVECTIVE INDICES SET UP RIGHT OVER THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER DWELLING WELL TO THE WEST THE PAST 36-48
HRS...BUT NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MN LAST NIGHT AND TUESDAY. 1000-H85 MB THTA-E
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE WAS XTREME OVER NE INTO SOUTHEAST SD
OVERNIGHT...BUT WON'T BE NEAR THAT OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. BUT STILL ENOUGH TO FEED EXPECTED CONVECTION.

THUS...WITH EXPECTED HEATING OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN 2/3'S
SUGGESTS CAPES OVER 4K AND A LOADED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN READY TO FUEL
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE PRODUCED AS FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE
CWA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. NORTHWEST CWA MAY BE HELD DOWN TO UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS WITH MORE IMPACT OF DEBRIS AND ANY
POTENTIAL LATE MORNING CONVECTION FIRING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. EAST HALF
OF THE CWA TO REMAIN IN THE HOT BOX AND SHOULD BE SIMILAR...OR EVEN A
TOUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY LOOKING AT PROJECTED THERMAL PROFILES AND
MIXING...MAINLY LOW TO MID 90S. SFC DPTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO AGAIN
BRING HEAT INDICES INTO THE ZONE MENTIONABLE RANGE OF 100 TO 105.
INTERESTING MOST MODELS SUGGEST BEST FORCING TO SCRAPE THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA FROM 00-06Z THU...AND SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL MO AS WELL.
HEAVIEST CONVECTION TO THEN PASS JUST TO THE NORTH(STILL IMPACTING
THE DBQ AREA THOUGH)...AND SECOND AREA OFF TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT? NICE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE OFF LEE SIDE OF 85-100 KT H25 MB JET STREAK AHEAD OF
IMPINGING FRONT INTO LOADED AIRMASS STILL SUGGESTS ENTIRE CWA WORTHY
OF AT LEAST LIKELY POPS.
..12..

LONGER RANGE...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A COLD FRONT DRAGGING THRU THE
FORECAST AREA EITHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.  NO SIGNIFICANT COLD PUNCH
BEHIND.  500MB SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME.
ONLY MINIMAL GULF CONNECTION BUT DEW POINTS MAY POOL INTO THE MID
60S WITH THE FRONT.  FRONT MAY MOVE SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT POPS MAY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY SOUTH...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.  NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
..REA..


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

12/REA





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 25 11:51:13 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 25 Jun 2003 05:51:13 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/25/2003 5:51:13 AM
Message-ID: <200306251051.FAA17836@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 251048
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-261000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
548 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

...HOT AND HUMID AGAIN TODAY...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AGAIN BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S TODAY...AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 70S. THIS
COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED SPOTS REACHING 103 TO 105 DEGREE VALUES. IF YOU PLAN TO BE
OUTSIDE TODAY...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR STRENUOUS PHYSICAL
ACTIVITY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS TO AVOID DEHYDRATION. WEAR
LIGHTWEIGHT...LIGHT-COLORED...LOOSE-FITTING CLOTHING.  WEAR A HAT TO
SHIELD YOURSELF FROM THE SUN...AND USE A SUNSCREEN TO REDUCE POSSIBLE
SUNBURN.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS FROM THE HEAT...TO STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA IS JUST WAITING TO FUEL STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST POTENTIAL WILL BE IF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTHWEST IOWA CAN MAKE IT DOWN
INTO EASTERN IOWA TODAY. THIS FEATURE WOULD ACT AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...TO
IMPACT ON AND PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM MID
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL TRY TO ACT TO
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT IT STILL CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. IF SOME STORMS CAN PUNCH THROUGH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT AND
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THEY MAY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS OR A DOWNBURST. IF A STORM CAN INTENSIFY ALONG A ROLLING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE EXPLOSIVE
STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. WARM AIR ALOFT AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
WILL HINDER LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAIL UP TO 1 INCH FROM AN
INTENSE STORM MAY STILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE.

AFTER THE CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS TODAY...A BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS AND MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...
AND PRODUCE A LINE OR LINEAR COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PROJECTED VERTICAL WIND FIELDS IN A UNIFORM DIRECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUGGEST DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 70
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM TONIGHTS STORMS.
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD
END WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 11 PM...AND EAST OF THE RIVER BY
1 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

Lightning Awareness Week - June 22-28, 2003.
at http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov

$$

12





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 25 14:36:13 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Tony Coniglio)
Date: Wed, 25 Jun 2003 08:36:13 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLB041 ARRL becomes an affiliate program of Citizen Corps
Message-ID: <005e01c33b1e$c1291aa0$60040640@yourm5d4u9r2uv>


> SB QST @ ARL $ARLB041
> ARLB041 ARRL becomes an affiliate program of Citizen Corps
> 
> ZCZC AG41
> QST de W1AW  
> ARRL Bulletin 41  ARLB041
> >From ARRL Headquarters  
> Newington CT  June 24, 2003
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB QST ARL ARLB041
> ARLB041 ARRL becomes an affiliate program of Citizen Corps
> 
> ARRL now is an official affiliate program of Citizen Corps, an
> initiative within the Department of Homeland Security to enhance
> public preparedness and safety. ARRL President Jim Haynie, W5JBP,
> signed a formal Statement of Affiliation between DHS and ARRL during
> the ARRL 2003 National Convention June 21 in Dallas, Texas.
> 
> Chief Operating Officer of the Emergency Preparedness and Response
> Directorate (FEMA) Ron Castleman represented DHS at the signing.
> Citizen Corps Liaison to the White House Liz DiGregorio called ham
> radio operators the ''first of the first responders.''
> 
> ''You are there. You are part of that very, very first response when
> it happens locally,'' especially in the initial stages of an
> emergency or disaster, DiGregorio told the overflow audience at the
> signing ceremony. She urged amateurs to explore ways to expand their
> role in the community beyond being the last resort when other
> communication systems fail. ''You need to show your community that
> you're engaged,'' she said. ''They need to know as a community that
> ARRL is there.''
> 
> Among other things, the affiliation statement calls on DHS and ARRL
> to raise public awareness of Amateur Radio as a safety resource. In
> addition, DHS and ARRL will cooperate in providing training and
> accreditation for Amateur Radio emergency communications and promote
> the formation of local Citizen Corps councils.
> NNNN
> /EX

From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 25 17:50:27 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 25 Jun 2003 11:50:27 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/25/2003 11:50:27 AM
Message-ID: <200306251650.LAA03139@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 251649
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015-016-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-261000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1200 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 
105.  PRECAUTION IS ADVISED THIS AFTERNOON.  IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE OR 
WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING...DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TAKE BREAKS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN IOWA 
THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH 
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  THE BIGGEST THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING 
WINDS FROM 60 TO 70 MILES AN HOUR.  

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH A CEDAR RAPIDS TO WASHINGTON 
LINE FROM 1 TO 3 PM AND FROM DUBUQUE TO QUAD CITIES FROM 5 TO 8 PM.  
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BY EARLY THURSDAY 
MORNING.    

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND 
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR 
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.  

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.  
 
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING INTERNET WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN (ALL LOWER CASE)

$$

BELLES








From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 25 18:07:59 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 25 Jun 2003 12:07:59 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Weather Watch : 9@ 6/25/2003 12:07:59 PM
Message-ID: <200306251708.MAA09332@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


WWUS20 KWNS 251707
SEL9  
SPC WW 251705
IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-252300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 589 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
1205 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       EASTERN IOWA
       NORTHERN AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
       EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI
       SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
       LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1205 PM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH OF OTTUMWA IOWA TO 60
MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF MADISON WISCONSIN.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.




DISCUSSION...MCS OVER CNTRL/ERN IA EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
INTO STRONGLY HEATED REGION NEAR THE MS RVR LATER TODAY.  MODERATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INFLOW AND
EXISTING SUBSYNOPTIC LOWS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS EXPECTED TO
COMPENSATE FOR RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT
BOWING STRUCTURES WITH HIGH WIND AND SOME HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23030.


...CORFIDI

;403,0940 435,0903 435,0870 403,0904; 

WWWW


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 25 18:41:34 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Jay Hainline)
Date: Wed, 25 Jun 2003 17:41:34 +0000
Subject: [LeArc] Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589
Message-ID: <000001c33b41$095d5350$8dc690cf@DGXRNB21>

249 
WWUS63 KLOT 251708
SLSIL 

ILLINOIS OUTLINE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 589
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1207 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 589 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM
CDT(600 PM EST).

IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES...
ILC015-073-085-131-161-177-195-252300-
IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES...
JO DAVIESS...STEPHENSON...CARROLL...WHITESIDE...ROCK ISLAND...HENRY
AND MERCER 
$$
ILC067-071-109-187-252300-
IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES...
HENDERSON...WARREN...HANCOCK AND MCDONOUGH 
$$

Jay Hainline  KA9CFD  EN40om
Colchester, IL
ka9cfd@arrl.net
http://www.qsl.net/learc 



From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 25 20:28:03 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 25 Jun 2003 14:28:03 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/25/2003 2:28:03 PM
Message-ID: <200306251928.OAA27154@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 251926
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
225 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE DAMAGING WINDS IS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER 
THREAT.  EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING.  SFC MESO 
ANALYSIS INDICATES PRES FALLS DVLPG IN NRN MO WITH EXPLOSIVE TSTMS 
FORMING IN ERN KS AND NWRN MO.  EVERYBODY IN THE FCST AREA SHOULD 
SEE RAIN TNGT.  WILL JUST GO CATEGORICAL WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HVY 
RAIN THREAT.  LAST FEW HOURS SFC REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE CDFNT IS 
BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE.  MODELS SHOW THIS QUITE WELL FOR TNGT.  
THEREFORE THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING IS MINIMAL ...ESPECIALLY 
WITH TOP SOILS FAIRLY DRY.   

.DAY 2 THRU 7...
WITH NW FLO ALFT NOT SURPRISED TO SEE SHRTWV DROP INTO THE NRN 
PLAINS ON DAY 3.  WK CDFNT PUSHES THRU THE RGN ON SAT WITH A CHC FOR 
TRW AS MSTR POOLS INVOF CDFNT.  QUESTION IS WILL THE FNT GO STNRY 
ACRS OUR SRN FCST AREA ON SUNDAY LEADING TO MORE TRW. FOR NOW WILL 
KEEP FCST DRY AS LATEST GFS HINTING AT FNT SLIDING FAR ENUF INTO 
MO...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT ACRS SRN PORTION.  
ALSO HAVE SO DOUBTS ABOUT PSBL PCPN EARLY MON.  MRF AND GFS SHOWING 
WK SHRTWV MOVG THRU PRODUCING SOME PCPN.  FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT 
BELIEVE THE GFS AND MRF ARE TENDING TOWARD THEIR MOIST BIAS.

WITH GOOD WESTERLY FLO A SHRTWV PASSES THRU ABOUT EVERY 3 DAYS.  
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THRU ON DAY 7 SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHC FOR TRW.  
OVERALL WITH THIS FLO PATTERN TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.  
  
DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

 BELLES












From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 25 23:14:28 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 25 Jun 2003 17:14:28 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Weather Watch : 3@ 6/25/2003 5:14:28 PM
Message-ID: <200306252214.RAA24337@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


WWUS20 KWNS 252213
SEL3  
SPC WW 252215
ILZ000-MOZ000-LMZ000-260300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 593 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
515 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
       EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
       LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 515 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MEIGS
FIELD ILLINOIS TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JEFFERSON CITY
MISSOURI.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 589...WW 590...WW 591...WW
592...


DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MO AND EASTERN
IA WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
IN STRONGER CELLS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...HART

;422,0863 381,0900 381,0923 422,0891; 

WWWW


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun 26 00:18:33 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 25 Jun 2003 18:18:33 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/25/2003 6:18:33 PM
Message-ID: <200306252320.SAA12111@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 252045
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015-016-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-261000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS 
EASTERN IOWA.  THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BY 
SUPPERTIME.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING 
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.  THE BIGGEST THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS 
FROM 60 TO 70 MILES AN HOUR. 

MOST SECTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND EXTREME 
NORTHEAST MISSOURI SHOULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BY LATE 
TONIGHT.

THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND 
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR 
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.  

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING..  
 
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING INTERNET WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN (ALL LOWER CASE)

$$

BELLES












From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun 23 03:17:34 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Tony Coniglio)
Date: Sun, 22 Jun 2003 21:17:34 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] NEWS RELEASE--Re:  International Field Day
Message-ID: <070501c3392d$9e00f400$15060640@yourm5d4u9r2uv>

NEWS RELEASE
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
From: Tony Coniglio, Program Chairman, Lamoine Emergency Amateur Radio =
Club

Amateur radio operators, also known as ham radio operators from the =
Macomb area as well as from around the world will be participating in =
International Field Day from 1 p.m. Saturday to 11 a.m Sunday, at the =
Lakeview Nature Center in Macomb Park District's Spring Lake Park.  =
Locally, this Field Day is sponsored by members of the Lamoine Emergency =
Amateur Radio Club.

Any licensed amateur radio operator, as well as anyone who is curious, =
or would like to learn about ham radio is welcome to attend.

The object of Field Day is to talk to as many hams from around the world =
and around the country as possible, and to learn to operate in abnormal =
situations in less than optimal conditions.  A premium is placed in =
developing skills to meet the challenges of emergency preparedness as =
well as to acquaint the general public with the capabilities of Amateur =
Radio.

People in this area are most familiar with ham operators in times of =
severe weather as storm spotters.

For more information, contact Wayne Scace at 309-833-2357.

--- StripMime Report -- processed MIME parts ---
multipart/alternative
  text/plain (text body -- kept)
  text/html
The reason this message is shown is because the post was in HTML
or had an attachment.  Attachments are not allowed.  To learn how
to post in Plain-Text go to: http://www.expita.com/nomime.html  ---

From learc@mailman.qth.net  Wed Jun 25 00:44:13 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (David C. Gill)
Date: Tue, 24 Jun 2003 18:44:13 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] New Field day rules
Message-ID: <5.2.0.9.2.20030624183153.00b4cc08@netexpress.net>

   The managerment of the Miller Brewery said they will have additional stock
and delivery personnel on duty to respond to any emergency shortage of
refreshements for Field Day.

    Emergency rooms across the country have stated that they will have
additional personnel on hand to treat amateurs bitten by insects, snakes and
bears, injured by towers falling, electrocution food poisoning, or severe
sunburn.

    National Amateur Radio organizations are considering presenting awards
for the Field Day operations who can calculate their power generation costs
at less than $2.00/ kWh.

    This year clubs may qualify for the coveted WATTS Award. Recipients are
required to prove they worked all Telephones, televisions, and toasters.
Special endorsements are available for groups making neighbor's flourescent
lights illuminate without being switched-on.

   Groups are required to log members name and callsigns who pass out from
excessive alcohol consumption, and who have extended hangovers- (also known
as Brown Bottle Flu.)  Special Event Stations will be organized in the name
of those amateurs who pass away from excessive alcohol consumption at Field
Day sites.

   Articles may be submitted to QST detailing the most novel methods of
extinguishing fuel/generator/ electrical fires during Field Day.

   Five hundred extra points will be awarded to any club whose operation
takes a full lightning strike during Field Day.

    Photo submissions are requested for any ham who is able to complete a
NORMAL (non-Field Day) QSO during Field Day weekend.

    Articles are requested about any club which has "caught and brought down"
a low-flying aircraft with its Field Day towers and antennas.

NNNNN
(Don't know what that means, but the ARRL uses it on every E-mail they send
me!)


1000 aches: 1 kilohurtz
                          _
             _           / \                     _
    _       / \         /   \           _       / \         _
   / \     /   \       /     \         / \     /   \       / \      _
     73, de Dave, K9FHX       \       / k9fhx@netexpress.net  \ / \
       \_/       \   /         \     /     \_/       \   /     \_/
                  \_/           \   /                 \_/
                                 \_/

         73, de Dave, K9FHX
         Milan, IL. EN41,USA
         k9fhx@netexpress.net / k9fhx@arrl.org  


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun 26 02:58:18 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Wed, 25 Jun 2003 20:58:18 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLB041 ARRL becomes an affiliate program of Citizen Corps
Message-ID: <20030624222817.19906.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB QST @ ARL $ARLB041
ARLB041 ARRL becomes an affiliate program of Citizen Corps

ZCZC AG41
QST de W1AW =20
ARRL Bulletin 41  ARLB041
>From ARRL Headquarters =20
Newington CT  June 24, 2003
To all radio amateurs=20

SB QST ARL ARLB041
ARLB041 ARRL becomes an affiliate program of Citizen Corps

ARRL now is an official affiliate program of Citizen Corps, an
initiative within the Department of Homeland Security to enhance
public preparedness and safety. ARRL President Jim Haynie, W5JBP,
signed a formal Statement of Affiliation between DHS and ARRL during
the ARRL 2003 National Convention June 21 in Dallas, Texas.

Chief Operating Officer of the Emergency Preparedness and Response
Directorate (FEMA) Ron Castleman represented DHS at the signing.
Citizen Corps Liaison to the White House Liz DiGregorio called ham
radio operators the ''first of the first responders.''

''You are there. You are part of that very, very first response when
it happens locally,'' especially in the initial stages of an
emergency or disaster, DiGregorio told the overflow audience at the
signing ceremony. She urged amateurs to explore ways to expand their
role in the community beyond being the last resort when other
communication systems fail. ''You need to show your community that
you're engaged,'' she said. ''They need to know as a community that
ARRL is there.''

Among other things, the affiliation statement calls on DHS and ARRL
to raise public awareness of Amateur Radio as a safety resource. In
addition, DHS and ARRL will cooperate in providing training and
accreditation for Amateur Radio emergency communications and promote
the formation of local Citizen Corps councils.
NNNN
/EX



From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun 26 03:25:27 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Wed, 25 Jun 2003 21:25:27 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Special Weather Statement : ILX@ 6/25/2003 9:25:27 PM
Message-ID: <200306260225.VAA27918@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


WWUS83 KILX 260224
SPSILX
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>044-047>054-061-260315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
922 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS 
HAS BEEN CANCELED...

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE EVENING...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS 
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THEREFORE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS 
CANCELED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT HAD BEEN IN EFFECT FOR 
THE REGION.

$$

BARKER


WWWW


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun 26 06:57:53 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Tony Coniglio)
Date: Thu, 26 Jun 2003 00:57:53 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLB042 Hams aid New Mexico, Arizona fire efforts
Message-ID: <026d01c33ba7$e283c6d0$60040640@yourm5d4u9r2uv>



> SB QST @ ARL $ARLB042
> ARLB042 Hams aid New Mexico, Arizona fire efforts
> 
> ZCZC AG42
> QST de W1AW  
> ARRL Bulletin 42  ARLB042
> >From ARRL Headquarters  
> Newington CT  June 26, 2003
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB QST ARL ARLB042
> ARLB042 Hams aid New Mexico, Arizona fire efforts
> 
> Amateurs in the vicinity of Sandoval County, New Mexico, had just
> wrapped up an activation to support emergency communication for
> personnel fighting the Virgin Mesa fire about 50 miles north of
> Albuquerque when they were notified to stand by for yet another fire
> right next to the city June 24.
> 
> Some 600 residents had to be evacuated as a result of the
> Albuquerque fire, which left an estimated 16,000 without power. Gov
> Bill Richardson declared a state of emergency.
> 
> Sandoval County ARES members stood by to assist Bernalillo County
> ARES if needed, said Sandoval County ARES team member Jay Miller,
> WA5WHN. In the end, Albuquerque firefighters were able to handle the
> blaze, which destroyed an upscale home that was under construction.
> 
> North of Tucson, Arizona, progress has been made to contain the
> Aspen Fire, which has destroyed close to 300 houses since it broke
> out June 17. Fire officials said that the blaze now is 25 percent
> contained, but still too dangerous for Amateur Radio volunteers to
> help. More than 1200 firefighters and support personnel continue
> working at the scene of the wildfire, which destroyed some
> mountaintop amateur repeater installations.
> NNNN
> /EX

From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun 26 10:31:10 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Thu, 26 Jun 2003 04:31:10 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/26/2003 4:31:10 AM
Message-ID: <200306260931.EAA00449@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 260923
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
415 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2003

LATEST MSAS LOOP AND SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING FRONT PUSHING EAST OF
THE MS RVR...WHILE LOCAL 88D LOOP SHOWS LINGERING PRECIP BOTH ALONG
BOUNDARY AND POST FRONTAL. WILL HAVE TO WALK OUT BOTH PRECIP AND
POST FRONTAL CLOUD DECK IN THIS MORNING ZONES IN THE EAST. CLOUDS
ACRS THE WEST MAKING ENOUGH CLEARING HEADWAY TO JUST GO WITH SUNNY
WORDING OFF THE BAT. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY BEING AIDED BY A
COUPLE OF VORT COMPLEXES SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY STILL JUST UPSTREAM THAT
WILL LOOK TO SHEAR EAST OVER IA THIS MORNING. THEN ITS DEEP
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR A FAIR WX REGIME IN THE NEAR TERM.

LLVL LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS...SHOULD
BE SOME CU GENERATION. QUESTION IS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO RUIN
MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING. MORNING SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AFTER POST FRONTAL DEBRIS CLEARS...BUT BY AFTERNOON WILL
WORD PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF FOR CU FORMATION. MAY
BE OVERDOING IT THOUGH. PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND EXTENT OF MIXING
POTENTIAL SUGGEST THAT TEMPS MAY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LATE JUNE INSOLATION.

AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN GRT LKS...RESULTING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY USHERS IN A DISTURBANCE
ACRS MN AND WI TOWARD FRI MORNING. WHILE SOME MODELS ACTUALLY
SPAWN A POS OMEGA BULLSEYE AND BREAK OUT LIGHT PRECIP THAT MAY CLIP
THE NORTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...FEEL FEATURE WILL
JUST CREATE SOME MID DECK CLOUDS TO KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING GOING
RATHER THAN TOTAL CLEAR OUT. SOUTHERN CWA SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED
BY THIS VORT AND STILL BE CLEAR. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT WHATS OCCURRING
TEMPERATURE-WISE FOR LOWS THIS MORNING IN RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL BE
UPON THE DVN CWA TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE CWA COULD COOL INTO THE LOWER
50S...CLOSEST TO COOLEST MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

WITH EXTENT OF MIXING AND SOME LLVL THERMAL RECOVERY ON FRI...TEMP
GUIDANCE APPEARS A BIT COOL FOR BUDDING POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AGAIN
THE MET WHICH HAS THE WARMEST HIGHS(LOW TO MID 80S) AND LOOK
REASONABLE.

ALL MODELS IN VARYING DEGREES AND TIMING...DEVELOP AND BRING DOWN
LARGER SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MN AND WI FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT
MORNING. RESULTING LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPICS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT FORM A SWATH OF SUBSTANTIAL POS OMEGAS...WHICH GENERALLY
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATER FRI NIGHT. EXTENT OF SATURATION AT
QUESTION...BUT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTIONS GOING ON TO INTRODUCE LOWER
POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN THIRD.


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

12





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun 26 18:51:44 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Thu, 26 Jun 2003 12:51:44 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/26/2003 12:51:44 PM
Message-ID: <200306261753.MAA17315@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 261748
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-271000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1241 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NO BE NEEDED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

Lightning Awareness Week - June 22-28, 2003.
at http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov

$$
DLF





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun 26 21:56:29 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Thu, 26 Jun 2003 15:56:29 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/26/2003 3:56:29 PM
Message-ID: <200306262057.PAA19707@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 262047
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2003

STRONG EARLY SUMMER MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER MANITOBA ON THIS MORNING 
UA ANALYSIS. H250 12HR HGT FALLS OF 290M AT INL IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE 
JUNE.  SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM STRETCHED FROM LOW 
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO THROUGH MI THEN SW THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO 
VALLEY.  WRAP AROUND SC STAYED NORTH OF CWA TODAY WITH MAINLY SCT 
CU OVER THE MID MS VALLEY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPS TONIGHT. 
ATTENTION LATER IN THE FCST PERIOD TURNS TO PCPN CHANCES OVER THE 
WEEKEND.  

NO SIGNIFICANT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS WERE NOTED THIS MORNING AND 
MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE WERE SOME 
DISCREPENCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ETA ON THE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE 
ACROSS N CENTRAL U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE AVN A 
LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM THAN THE 
ETA DEPICTS.  FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING 
WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  UPSTREAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 
40S THIS AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD TEMPS FOR FRIDAY 
MORNING.  HOWEVER...EXPECT TO KEEP SOME WIND GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT 
WITH LITTLE RELAXATION IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. CURRENT 
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGES.  DRY WX TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW.  SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF 
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME GOOD MIXING AND WILL FAVOR THE WARMER FWC/MET 
TEMPS.  SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT 
AND SATURDAY WILL RETURN THE THREAT OF PCPN TO THE REGION.  THERE IS 
SOME DISCREPENCY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY SATURDAY 
WITH ETA HOLDING THE FRONT OVER NE IA AND NRN IL WHILE GFS KEEPS 
OVER SRN MN/CENTRAL WI.  CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS LOW POPS 
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL LEAVE IN PLACE.  
HOWEVER...CHANGED WORDING FROM SHRA TO TSRA BASED ON MID LEVEL LAPSE 
RATES AND POTENTIAL FORCING.  TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH FRONT PROGGED
THROUGH REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  WILL KEEP LOW POPS SATURDAY CWA 
WIDE...BUT BEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE JUST AHEAD OF THE 
BOUNDARY...DURING THE EVENING HOURS.   WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS 
SUNDAY IN THE SOUTH WITH FRONT STALLING ACROSS NRN MO.  THEN DRY WX 
FOR THE CWA INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSUE DOMINATING REGION.

IN THE EXTENDED GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE HANDLING MID WEEK NW 
FLOW DIFFERENTLY.  THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE MORE ENERGETIC WITH THE 
MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NRN U.S. WHILE GFS BUILDS MORE MID LEVEL RIDGING 
OVER THE REGION...SUGGESTING DRY WX. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS 
ALREADY IN FORECAST FOR TUES NIGHT AND INTRODUCE POPS FOR THURSDAY 
PER GFS MOVING FRONT INTO NRN IA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

DLF







From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun 26 07:47:35 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (R. Patrick Ryan)
Date: Thu, 26 Jun 2003 01:47:35 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Jesse KB9TMA moving to Macomb this fall.
Message-ID: <20030626.220015.828.1.kc6vvt@juno.com>

LEARC Members:

Recently, our Starved Rock Radio Club President, Jesse Risley KB9TMA,
announced in our club newsletter Static that he would be accepting a
position this fall at Macomb Senior High School as a Social Studies
teacher. 

Jesse is a very active amateur radio operator, and also a registered and
regular WX spotter, and a very fine young man.  If you did not meet
KB9TMA at our recent Princeton hamfest, be sure to make it a point to
greet Jesse sometime this fall. 

Have told him about the Lamoine Emergency ARC email reflector, but
perhaps he will need a special invitation to sign up for it, so will copy
this to him.

We would like to rent him back for our first Monday of the month SRRC
meetings so he can finish out his term as President, but will try to
understand if you have need of his presence. His enthusiasm for ham radio
is a bit contagious, so be forewarned.

Our loss will be your gain, so know you will make him feel welcome when
he arrives on the 147.060 machine there. 

vy 73 de Pat Ryan KC6VVT
Illinois Section Emergency Coordinator, ARRL
P. O. Box 24
Tonica, IL 61370-0024   
kc6vvt@arrl.net

________________________________________________________________
The best thing to hit the internet in years - Juno SpeedBand!
Surf the web up to FIVE TIMES FASTER!
Only $14.95/ month - visit www.juno.com to sign up today!

From learc@mailman.qth.net  Thu Jun 26 07:25:15 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (R. Patrick Ryan)
Date: Thu, 26 Jun 2003 01:25:15 -0500
Subject: SEC Re: [LeArc] FD 2003
Message-ID: <20030626.220015.828.0.kc6vvt@juno.com>

Good luck to the Lamoine Emergency Amateur Radio Club on your Field Day
this weekend.
Don't forget the NTS message origination and relay points!

vy 73 de Pat Ryan KC6VVT
Illinois Section Emergency Coordinator, ARRL
P. O. Box 24
Tonica, IL 61370-0024   
kc6vvt@arrl.net
815-442-3373

________________________________________________________________
The best thing to hit the internet in years - Juno SpeedBand!
Surf the web up to FIVE TIMES FASTER!
Only $14.95/ month - visit www.juno.com to sign up today!

From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 27 04:14:37 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Thu, 26 Jun 2003 22:14:37 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/26/2003 10:14:36 PM
Message-ID: <200306270314.WAA23531@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 270312
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1005 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2003

MONITORING BAND OF MID LEVEL RETURNS AND SPRINKLES NEAR PRAIRIE DU 
CHIEN DIVING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF WEAK VORT MAX. 
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FAR NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST IL 
ZONES. OTHERWISE...WILL UPDATE TO REDUCE WIND SPEEDS.
WILL ALSO LOWER MIN TEMPS A NOTCH BASED ON LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY 
CLEAR SKIES. 

CONCERN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS 
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL
END OF A VORT MAX...WARM ADVECTION AND Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
ATTIM...FORECAST IS DRY...BUT WILL PASS ON CONCERNS. 

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

05









From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 27 04:24:54 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Thu, 26 Jun 2003 22:24:54 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/26/2003 10:24:54 PM
Message-ID: <200306270325.WAA25757@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 270323 CCA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1005 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2003

MONITORING BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES NEAR PRAIRIE DU 
CHIEN DIVING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF WEAK VORT MAX. 
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FAR NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST IL 
ZONES. OTHERWISE...WILL UPDATE TO REDUCE WIND SPEEDS.
WILL ALSO LOWER MIN TEMPS A NOTCH BASED ON LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY 
CLEAR SKIES. 

CONCERN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS 
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL
END OF A VORT MAX...WARM ADVECTION AND Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
ATTIM...FORECAST IS DRY...BUT WILL PASS ON CONCERNS. 

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

05











From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 27 05:08:39 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Thu, 26 Jun 2003 23:08:39 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLB042 Hams aid New Mexico, Arizona fire efforts
Message-ID: <20030626030857.31783.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB QST @ ARL $ARLB042
ARLB042 Hams aid New Mexico, Arizona fire efforts

ZCZC AG42
QST de W1AW =20
ARRL Bulletin 42  ARLB042
>From ARRL Headquarters =20
Newington CT  June 26, 2003
To all radio amateurs=20

SB QST ARL ARLB042
ARLB042 Hams aid New Mexico, Arizona fire efforts

Amateurs in the vicinity of Sandoval County, New Mexico, had just
wrapped up an activation to support emergency communication for
personnel fighting the Virgin Mesa fire about 50 miles north of
Albuquerque when they were notified to stand by for yet another fire
right next to the city June 24.

Some 600 residents had to be evacuated as a result of the
Albuquerque fire, which left an estimated 16,000 without power. Gov
Bill Richardson declared a state of emergency.

Sandoval County ARES members stood by to assist Bernalillo County
ARES if needed, said Sandoval County ARES team member Jay Miller,
WA5WHN. In the end, Albuquerque firefighters were able to handle the
blaze, which destroyed an upscale home that was under construction.

North of Tucson, Arizona, progress has been made to contain the
Aspen Fire, which has destroyed close to 300 houses since it broke
out June 17. Fire officials said that the blaze now is 25 percent
contained, but still too dangerous for Amateur Radio volunteers to
help. More than 1200 firefighters and support personnel continue
working at the scene of the wildfire, which destroyed some
mountaintop amateur repeater installations.
NNNN
/EX



From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 27 05:08:50 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Thu, 26 Jun 2003 23:08:50 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLD026 DX news
Message-ID: <20030626194412.19133.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB DX @ ARL $ARLD026
ARLD026 DX news

ZCZC AE26
QST de W1AW =20
DX Bulletin 26  ARLD026
>From ARRL Headquarters =20
Newington CT  June 26, 2003
To all radio amateurs  =20

SB DX ARL ARLD026
ARLD026 DX news

This week's bulletin was made possible with information provided by
KC8KAM, the OPDX Bulletin, QRZ DX, The Daily DX, 425DXnews, DXNL,
WA7BNM and Contest Corral from QST.  Thanks to all.

TUNISIA, 3V.  Francois, F8DVD is QRV as 3V8SM from Djerba Island,
IOTA AF-083, until July 4.  QSL to home call.

MAURITANIA, 5T.  Frank, DL8YHR will be QRV as 5T5M from June 29 to
July 7.  He will concentrate his activity on 6-meters.  QSL to home
call.

AZORES, CU.  Lars, SM3CVM is QRV as CU2/SM3CVM/p from Sao Miguel,
IOTA EU-003, until July 6.  He is active on 80 to 10 meters using CW
mostly in his late evening hours.  QSL to home call.
        =20
MAYOTTE, FH.  Martial, F5SIE will be QRV as FH/F5SIE from July 1 to
15.  Activity will be on 40, 17 and 15 meters using just CW.  QSL
via the REF QSL bureau.

ITALY, I.  Paolo, IZ8FDH will be QRV as IF9/IZ8FDH from Favignana
Island, IOTA AF-019, from June 29 to July 6.  Activity will be on HF
and 6-meters.  QSL to home call.

SARDINIA, IS0.  Stefano, IK5PWQ will be active as IM0/IK5PWQ from
San Pietro Island, IOTA EU-165, from July 1 to 14.  Activity will be
generally on 20 meters SSB and CW on 40 and 30 meters.  QSL to home
call.

FINLAND, OH.  Stations OH6HJE, OH6NJ, OH6UV and OH6XX are QRV as
OH6AW/8 from Marjaniemi Lighthouse on Hailuoto Island, IOTA EU-184,
until July 1.  Activity is on all HF bands, including 6 and 2
meters.  QSL via OH6AD.

EAST KIRIBATI, T32.  Look for La Marr to be QRV as T32Z beginning
June 30 from Kiritimati Island, IOTA OC-024.  He is here for several
weeks and will be active as time permits.  Activity will be on all
HF bands, including 6-meters, using CW, SSB and some digital modes.
QSL via K3PD.

GUATEMALA, TG.  Look for Mario, TG9ADQ, Francisco, TG9ANF, Edgar,
TG9AXF and Sergio, TG9SM to be QRV as TG0AA on June 29 and 30 from
Pacaya, an active volcano located 17 miles away from Guatemala City.
They will be active on 40, 20, 17 and 15 meters using SSB, RTTY,
SSTV and PSK31.  QSL via TG9AXF.
         =20
CENTRAL AFRICA, TL.  Charles, TL8CK has been QRV on 17 meters around
1600z.  QSL via F6EWM.

IRAQ, YI.  Dane, YI/S57CQ is a UN World Food Program worker, and is
in northern Iraq for another few months.  He is active generally on
the weekends.  QSL via S57DX.

ALBANIA, ZA.  Enver, ZA1MM is usually QRV on 40 meters between 0200
and 0600z.  QSL via LZ2UU.

SOUTH AFRICA, ZS.  John, KC8KAM is QRV as ZS6/KC8KAM until July 4
from Eldorado park.  This is not a DXpedition, so he is active as
time permits.  Activity is primarily SSB with some PSK31 on 80, 40,
20, 17 and 15 meters.  QSL to home call.

BULLETIN CORRECTION.  As mentioned in DX Bulletin ARLD025, the
CORRECT IOTA number for Andros Island, Bahamas, is NA-001.

THIS WEEKEND ON THE RADIO.  ARRL Field Day, QRP ARCI Milliwatt Field
Day, Marconi Memorial HF CW Contest and the His Majesty King of
Spain SSB Contest will certainly keep contesters busy this weekend.
The RAC Canada Day Contest is scheduled for July 1.  Please see June
QST, page 95 and the ARRL and WA7BNM contest websites for details.
NNNN
/EX




From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 27 10:32:30 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Fri, 27 Jun 2003 04:32:30 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/27/2003 4:32:30 AM
Message-ID: <200306270932.EAA10162@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 270930
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
420 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2003

BACKING LLVL FLOW TODAY TO BRING ABOUT BOUT OF WAA...ESPECIALLY AT
THE H85 LEVEL. H85 ACTUALLY WARM AIR ADVECTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
TODAY AS TAP INTO WARMER POOL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS COMMENCES.
WITH ADEQUATE INSOLATION AND MIXING IN MODERATED THERMAL PROFILE
AND LOWER DPT/MORE HEATABLE SFC AIR...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE AREA HIGHS
TODAY. DBQ AND NORTHWEST IL TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
L/W OVER THE NORTHERN GRT LKS TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY...WITH
RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW USHERING VORT PIECES AND MAXES DOWN ACRS THE
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SOME CONCERN
THAT "SATELLITE" VORT ROTATING AROUND EXITING GRT LKS MAIN VORT TODAY
MAY SET OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHEAST 2/3'S. MAY INCLUDE LOWER POPS FOR THIS LATE
AFTERNOON POSSIBILITY....WITH SOME POS OMEGA FIELDS BEING INDUCED BY
WAA AND GLANCING CVA. FEEL SAME PROCESSES TO ALSO PRODUCE AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACRS THE NORTHERN HALF THIS AFTERNOON FROM
MORNING SUNSHINE.

BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO COME LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS
STRONGER ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE VORT WILL LOOK TO SKIRT DOWN ACRS MN
AND WI FRI NIGHT. MODELS OF COURSE VARY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THIS WAVE WITH GFS STRONGER BUT MORE PROGRESSIVE. IN ANY CASE
FEATURE TO KICK UP SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER MN...WHICH MAY
COALESCE INTO A TYPE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND PROPAGATE DOWN ALONG
TIGHTENING WARM FRONT AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC REFLECTION OF UPPER
FEATURE. MOST MODELS AGREE HEAVIEST CONVECTION TO DROP DOWN JUST
NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACRS SOUTHERN MN AND SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SAT
MORNING. BUT...SHORT RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS EXTENT OF FORCING
...MID LEVEL JET PUNCH...AND THTA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE TO
"TAIL" DOWN ENOUGH ACRS THE LOCAL CWA FOR LATE NIGHT THREAT TO MOST
OF THE CWA...BUT WEST CENTRAL IL MAY ESCAPE ACTIVITY UNTIL SAT
MORNING.

SFC LOW PUSHING ACRS SOUTHEAST MN AND WI ON SAT TO WHIRL COLD FRONT
ACRS THE CWA FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS FACT ALONG WITH
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SHOULD ACT AS FOCAL POINTS FOR FORCING
AND LLVL THTA-E FEED ACRS THE AREA TO KEEP SHOWER AND STORM THREAT
GOING INTO SAT. SOME DISCONTINUITY ON TIMING AND EXITING OF PRECIP
LATER IN THE DAY SAT...WITH SOME MODELS CLEARING MOST OF THE CWA OUT
BY AFTERNOON AND PAINTING A FAIR SAT NIGHT. OTHERS LINGER PRECIP
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA INTO SAT EVENING BEFORE CLEAR OUT. WILL
DEFINE DAY BETTER IN LATER PACKAGES...WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS
HOPEFULLY SHOWING MORE CONFORMITY. WILL BANK ON CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
KEEPING SAT TEMPS DOWN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH
THERMAL POTENTIAL WARMER BY A FEW CATEGORIES.   ..12..

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  SUNDAY A BIT OF A
QUANDARY...AS LOW CHANCE POPS BASED MAINLY ON THE PROXIMITY OF A
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.  THIS APPEARS TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
FEATURES PLAY OUT ON SATURDAY...AND THE WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DUE
THROUGH THEN...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.  A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY...AND CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET.  A WARMING TREND
STARTS ON TUESDAY...AND ENOUGH OF A WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY TO CREATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH
AFTERWARDS THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER DESPITE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL A WEAK FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.   ...LE...


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

12/LE





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 27 10:59:20 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Fri, 27 Jun 2003 04:59:20 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/27/2003 4:59:20 AM
Message-ID: <200306270959.EAA14421@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 270956
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-281000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
455 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  
THEN...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO 
THE AREA FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS A STRONGER...BUT 
STILL COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER 
MIDWEST OVERNIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS 
NOT LIKELY...THOUGH SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR STRONG 
GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ON SATURDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE MORE SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE 
WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF 
INTERSTATE 80 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM 
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.  THE WEATHER SHOULD THEN BE 
RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH 
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AND TUESDAY 
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT...THOUGH MAY BE 
NEEDED ON SATURDAY AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

LIGHTNING AWARENESS WEEK - JUNE 22-28, 2003.
AT HTTP://WWW.LIGHTNINGSAFETY.NOAA.GOV

$$

LE





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Fri Jun 27 22:40:21 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Fri, 27 Jun 2003 16:40:21 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/27/2003 4:40:21 PM
Message-ID: <200306272140.QAA26615@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 272123
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
420 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2003

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RECENTLY ALONG
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/WI ATTIM.
THIS POSES INITIAL SHORT TERM CONCERN...AS TO WHETHER SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE OR DEVELOP INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
EARLY THIS EVE. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. OF MOST IMPORTANCE IS SHORTWAVE
DIVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS ATTIM GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS SYSTEM IS THE SECOND CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.  

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN STALLING/WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH
IN SOUTHERN MN/WI. BEST CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY JUST
NORTH OF CWA...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS IN THE NORTH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DECENT SHORTWAVE WHICH
MODELS SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST ON SAT. ACCOMPANYING THE 
SHORTWAVE WILL BE A FRONTAL SYSTEM. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 
DIVERGENCE FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET POINT TO 
BULK OF PCPN ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WHERE
SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SMALL MCS. HOWEVER...SECONDARY PCPN
AREA MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVE IN WESTERN IA WITH FRONTAL ZONE
INTERACTING WITH NOSE OF 35 KT LLJ. MEAN FLOW WOULD STEER THIS 
ACTIVITY IN OUR DIRECTION. WITH ALL BEING SAID...GUIDANCE 
LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND NORTH FOR LATER TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE.
TAPERED TO JUST CHC POPS IN THE EAST. CLOUDS AND 
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RESULT IN WARMER MINS AND GUIDANCE LOOKS 
REASONABLE...THOUGH IF CLOUDS/PCPN SLOW AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH
THEN POTENTIAL TO BE FEW DEGS COOLER.  
 
ON SAT...EXPECT PCPN TO SHIFT ACROSS CWA DURING THE MORNING.
MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY CLEARING CAN OCCUR TO 
ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION 
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FEW
SEVERE STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR. MAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH HAIL
WITH FAVORABLE WBZ/S IN 9000-11000 FT. HOWEVER...WITH DECENT SHEAR IN
LOWEST 3 KM AND ANY ROTATION GIVEN INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS MUCH 
OF CWA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SAT. BELIEVE WE/LL SEE SOME 
THINNING IN CLOUDS AND ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH EAST OF A CID
TO FFL LINE. BUMPED UP MAXES JUST A TAD WITH ANTICIPATION
OF SOME SOLAR INSOLATION AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THERMAL PARAMETERS.
DOESN/T TAKE MUCH SUN AND TEMPS JUMP. 

FRONT SLOWS UP SAT EVE...AND KEPT CHC POPS IN SOUTH AND EAST.
HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST SLIGHT CHC POPS IN FAR SOUTH ON SUN.
THIS AREA WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FRONTAL ZONE. 
BOUNDARY THEN BEGINS TO WASH OUT ON MON...THUS CONTINUED WITH DRY
FORECAST. NUDGED TEMPS UP WITH LITTLE POST FRONTAL COOLING
BOTH SUN AND MON.  

EXTENDED (TUE-FRI)
HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD OVER THE PLAINS EARLY ON WITH UPPER RIDGE.
FRONTAL ZONE WASHES OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON TUE. LACK OF FORCING AND 
STRENGTHENING CAP SUPPORT GOING WITH DRY FORECAST TUE...WHICH BLENDS 
WELL WITH SURROUNDING WFO/S. HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY TAKE HOLD
OF THE AREA ON WED WITH UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...SQUELCHING PCPN CHCS 
AS WELL. THU-FRI SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN STATES 
ON PERIPHERY OF MAIN WESTERLIES...SLOWLY SUPPRESSING UPPER RIDGE TO 
THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTH TOWARD REGION. IF 
MODELS ARE CORRECT IN DEPICTING FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST NE 12Z 
THU...THEN OLD RULE SAYS IT WILL BE IN CWA WITHIN 24 HRS. 
THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED PCPN CHCS.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$








From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun 28 05:01:36 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Fri, 27 Jun 2003 23:01:36 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA
Message-ID: <20030627185025.5123.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP26
QST de W1AW =20
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26  ARLP026
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 27, 2003
To all radio amateurs=20

SB PROP ARL ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

This week had somewhat quieter geomagnetic conditions compared to
the previous week, but average daily solar flux was down a bit and
average daily sunspot numbers remained about the same. Recent
projections anticipate no truly quiet periods ahead.

ARRL Field Day is this weekend, and I wish the geomagnetic
conditions could be better. The predicted planetary A index for
Friday through Monday is 20, 25, 20 and 20. Although an A index of
25 for Saturday doesn't look very promising, this prediction is made
several days prior, and like weather forecasts, the real conditions
could be different. In addition, a planetary A index of 20 or 25
doesn't guarantee a radio blackout on the high frequencies.

Just to run some numbers for this weekend, using W6ELprop (download
free from http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/) for Saturday with a path
from California to Ohio, a solar flux of 125 and K index of 4, we
see 20-meters opening on Saturday morning before the start of Field
Day and continuing a good path through the day. Around 2330z the
path may be unreliable, then it comes back a lot stronger at 0100z.
This is just as 40-meters is starting to open. Both bands stay
strong through the night until local sunrise in California.
80-meters opens after sunset in California, and fades after sunrise
in Ohio. The path opens on 20-meters around 1430z.

David Moore of Morro Bay, California wrote in with a tip about an
interesting article that details some new findings regarding the
mechanics of the solar cycle. The article reports research
suggesting slowly moving circulating currents of compressed gasses
125,000 miles into the sun's interior influence the production of
sunspots. The article also says that the speed of these circulating
currents of gasses varies from cycle to cycle, and the fast
circulation in the last cycle suggests the next cycle should be
strong, peaking around 7 or 8 years from now. You can read the
article at http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=3D11874.

Still more reports arrived about the VHF openings around June 17.
Jake Groenhof, N0LX wrote to say he was on Mount Evans in Colorado
and using one half watt on 2-meter SSB when he worked a station 850
miles away in California. He went up to 5 watts and worked five more
Californians. He has a web page detailing this at
http://hometown.aol.com/n0lx/vhf.html.

Ward Silver, N0AX wrote to say that the description in last week's
bulletin of the A index being linear was incorrect. The related K
index is logarithmic, but the A index is a larger scale, and not
linear.

Sunspot numbers for June 19 through 25 were 108, 121, 118, 94, 104,
131, and 115, with a mean of 113. 10.7 cm flux was 122.9, 116.9,
115, 110.2, 113.5, 114.5, and 116.3, with a mean of 115.6. Estimated
planetary A indices were 18, 12, 23, 16, 20, 31, and 19, with a mean
of 19.9.
NNNN
/EX




From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun 28 05:01:45 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Fri, 27 Jun 2003 23:01:45 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] ARLK050 Keplerian data
Message-ID: <20030627220215.2187.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

SB KEP @ ARL $ARLK050
ARLK050 Keplerian data

ZCZC SK50
QST de W1AW =20
Keplerian Bulletin 50  ARLK050
>From ARRL Headquarters
Newington, CT  June 27, 2003
To all radio amateurs=20

SB KEP ARL ARLK050
ARLK050 Keplerian data

Thanks to Con, W5BWF, for the following Keplerian data. =20

Decode 2-line elsets with the following key:
1 AAAAAU 00  0  0 BBBBB.BBBBBBBB  .CCCCCCCC  00000-0  00000-0 0  DDDZ
2 AAAAA EEE.EEEE FFF.FFFF GGGGGGG HHH.HHHH III.IIII JJ.JJJJJJJJKKKKKZ
KEY: A-CATALOGNUM B-EPOCHTIME C-DECAY D-ELSETNUM E-INCLINATION F-RAAN
G-ECCENTRICITY H-ARGPERIGEE I-MNANOM J-MNMOTION K-ORBITNUM Z-CHECKSUM

AO-07
1 07530U 74089B   03176.66395447 -.00000029 +00000-0 +10000-3 0 01891
2 07530 101.7380 223.1431 0012144 191.6093 168.4697 12.53565612309115
AO-10
1 14129U 83058B   03178.12164852 -.00000195  00000-0  10000-3 0  9461
2 14129  26.2203 143.5593 5985068   3.6818 359.0838  2.05869363122712
UO-11
1 14781U 84021B   03177.88719951  .00000594  00000-0  89005-4 0  1864
2 14781  98.1329 152.9893 0009801 151.5170 208.6577 14.78315125 35190
UO-14
1 20437U 90005B   03177.71160318  .00000070  00000-0  41938-4 0  2646
2 20437  98.2534 215.0679 0010670 175.8328 184.2943 14.31277106700827
AO-16
1 20439U 90005D   03178.12449273  .00000055  00000-0  36275-4 0  9316
2 20439  98.2972 227.8776 0010499 182.6122 177.4989 14.31518738700925
FO-20
1 20480U 90013C   03177.40198260  .00000019  00000-0  10683-3 0  5060
2 20480  99.0656 116.2460 0540842  74.4171 291.5934 12.83334188626916
UO-22
1 21575U 91050B   03178.19603334  .00000182  00000-0  71818-4 0  8352
2 21575  98.1514 163.9569 0008596 101.8519 258.3635 14.39232679626789
AO-27
1 22825U 93061C   03177.89093483  .00000042  00000-0  32727-4 0  5908
2 22825  98.2597 200.9638 0007455 236.0777 123.9698 14.28984247508204
IO-26
1 22826U 93061D   03174.12052265 -.00000041 +00000-0 -92028-8 0 03830
2 22826 098.2628 198.5593 0008036 246.2833 113.7509 14.29210056507718
RS-15
1 23439U 94085A   03176.38923961 -.00000041 +00000-0 +45464-4 0 07121
2 23439 064.8125 196.4066 0145587 090.5609 271.1999 11.27548456349894
FO-29
1 24278U 96046B   03177.85464533  .00000059  00000-0  98962-4 0  6038
2 24278  98.5595 311.7936 0349901 244.0435 112.4266 13.52882649338659
ISS
1 25544U 98067A   03178.49002255  .00013677  00000-0  17229-3 0  1615
2 25544  51.6327 328.4252 0007248 304.1307 169.1085 15.59919889262612
SO-41
1 26545U 00057A   03177.60045102  .00000416  00000-0  74386-4 0  4954
2 26545  64.5594 358.3303 0041298 218.0229 141.7934 14.79251668148157
MO-46
1 26548U 00057D   03177.96122445  .00000703  00000-0  10687-3 0  4965
2 26548  64.5576 348.6522 0034582 219.8461 140.0094 14.81623159148385
AO-40
1 26609U 00072B   03174.84580217 -.00000225  00000-0  10000-3 0  3394
2 26609   9.0439  42.3857 7960635 187.6137 140.1629  1.25597737 12167
NO-44
1 26931U 01043C   03178.57293529  .00000039  00000-0  47883-4 0  5082
2 26931  67.0477 283.4859 0006873 273.8967  86.1348 14.29178082 90785
SO-50
1 27607U 02058C   03178.42126300  .00000480  00000-0  10074-3 0  1601
2 27607  64.5511 167.2429 0039346  51.0457 309.4161 14.70149205 27741

Keplerian bulletins are transmitted twice weekly from W1AW.  The
next scheduled transmission of these data will be Tuesday, July 1,
2003, at 2230z on Baudot and AMTOR.
NNNN
/EX




From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun 28 05:01:52 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Joe Rossmiller)
Date: Fri, 27 Jun 2003 23:01:52 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] The ARRL Letter, Vol 22, No 26
Message-ID: <20030628012317.16522.qmail@mailer.remote.arrl.org>

***************
The ARRL Letter
Vol. 22, No. 26
June 27, 2003
***************

IN THIS EDITION:

* +ARRL becomes Citizen Corp affiliate
* +Morse treaty requirement on the way out
* +Hams help fire fighting efforts in US Southwest
* +California antenna bill passes Senate
* +Oregon's Section Manager recalled
* +Bogus QST solicitor on the loose
*  First Cuba-US Field Day operation announced
*  Solar Update
*  IN BRIEF:
     This weekend on the radio
     Attention clubs participating in Field Day 2003!
     New Field Day Class F still attracting questions
    +Western Washington gets new Section Manager
     No joy for New York ham antenna bills
     ARRL's 2002 Annual Report is available
     Correction

+Available on ARRL Audio News

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
NOTE: ARRL Headquarters is closed on Independence Day: ARRL Headquarters
will be closed Independence Day, Friday, July 4. There will be no W1AW
bulletin or code practice transmissions on July 4 nor any editions of =
The
ARRL Letter or ARRL Audio News. ARRL Headquarters will reopen Monday, =
July
7, at 8 AM EDT. The ARRL Letter and ARRL Audio News will return Friday,
July 11. Have a safe and enjoyable Independence Day holiday!
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

=3D=3D>AMATEURS "FIRST OF THE FIRST RESPONDERS," DHS OFFICIAL SAYS

ARRL now is an official affiliate program of Citizen Corps
<http://www.citizencorps.gov>, an initiative within the Department of
Homeland Security <http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/> to enhance public
preparedness and safety. ARRL President Jim Haynie, W5JBP, signed the
formal Statement of Affiliation between DHS and ARRL during the ARRL =
2003
National Convention June 21. Chief Operating Officer of the Emergency
Preparedness and Response Directorate (FEMA) Ron Castleman represented
Under Secretary for Emergency Preparedness and Response Michael D. Brown
at the signing. Citizen Corps Liaison to the White House Liz DiGregorio
called ham radio operators the "first of the first responders."

"You are there. You are part of that very, very first response when it
happens locally," especially in the initial stages of an emergency or
disaster, DiGregorio told an overflow audience. She urged amateurs to
explore ways to expand their role in the community beyond being the last
resort when other communication systems fail. "You need to show your
community that you're engaged," she said. "They need to know as a
community that ARRL is there."

Castleman said his agency really needs Amateur Radio's help. "Hams have =
a
long and distinguished history of assisting and cooperating with FEMA," =
he
said. He said FEMA wants to continue to work with Amateur Radio =
operators
as partners and expand hams' community safety role. "We also want to =
help
prepare every citizen across our country before disaster strikes,"
Castleman said.

The League joins the National Safety Council, Points of Light =
Foundation,
National Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster, National Volunteer
Fire Council, National Fire Protection Association, Save A Life =
Foundation
and The Jaycees as Citizen Corps affiliate programs.

The SoA calls on DHS and ARRL to raise public awareness of Amateur Radio
as a safety resource. "That's what you are all about, and we need a =
safer
America," DiGregorio said.

In addition, DHS and ARRL will cooperate in providing training and
accreditation for Amateur Radio emergency communications. They also will
work together to promote the formation of local Citizen Corps councils =
and
assist them with education, training and volunteer service opportunities
"that support first responders, disaster relief organizations and
community safety efforts." As an affiliate, ARRL will be linked from the
FEMA and Citizen Corps Web sites.

"We need you, and you need us, and we want to work together with you to
make this all happen," DiGregorio concluded, "because we all share the
same goal, and that goal is a better, stronger, more secure America."

The ARRL National Convention 2003 was held in conjunction with Ham-Com
<http://www.hamcom.org> in Arlington, Texas. FEMA announced the SoA
signing on its Web site <http://www.fema.gov/nwz03/nwz03_138.shtm>.

=3D=3D>NO MORSE CODE CONTROVERSY AT WRC-03

Whatever else happens at World Radiocommunication Conference 2003
(WRC-03), there's no mystery about the delegates' direction regarding =
the
Morse code requirement. Morse code proficiency will disappear as a =
treaty
obligation for high-frequency access when the International
Telecommunication Union (ITU)-sponsored gathering under way in Geneva
concludes July 4.

"One matter on which there appears to be no disagreement is the Morse
requirement," said International Amateur Radio Union (IARU) Secretary =
(and
ARRL CEO) David Sumner, K1ZZ, in a report
<http://www.iaru.org/rel030623.html> on the second week of activity at
WRC-03. "It is clear that the outcome will be to leave it to
administrations' discretion whether or not to have a Morse receiving and
sending requirement." He said no administration participating in the
sub-working group spoke in favor of retaining the Morse code treaty
requirement.

The modification of Article 25.5 of the international Radio Regulations
cleared Working Group 4C on June 24. Working Group 4C is dealing with =
this
and other proposals relating to Article 25. The modified text says,
"Administrations shall determine whether or not a person seeking a =
license
to operate an amateur station shall prove the ability to send and =
receive
texts in Morse code signals."

It's possible but unlikely that the text would be tinkered with further =
at
the committee level or even in the Plenary, which considers items for
adoption. Sumner said delegates continue to wrangle over other aspects =
of
Article 25, which defines Amateur Radio operation.

Adoption of the Article 25.5 modification would not mean the immediate
disappearance of the Morse requirement to operate on the amateur bands
below 30 MHz. Each administration, including the FCC, would then decide
whether or not to drop the requirement from its domestic regulations. =
Some
countries have indicated a desire to retain a Morse code requirement.

Sub-working groups this week funneled their reports to larger working
groups assigned to tackle various pieces of the huge WRC-03 agenda. More
than 2600 delegates and other participants are attending the four-week
conference. For WRC-03, the IARU has fielded its largest team of =
observers
at an ITU conference in more than a decade.

There's less consensus on efforts to secure a "harmonized" 300-kHz-wide
amateur allocation at 7 MHz. Sumner said initial discussions in
Sub-Working Group 4C1 "were spirited and reflected sharp differences of
opinion" between those advocating realignment and those favoring no =
change
out of deference to the disruption that any realignment would cause
broadcasting services now occupying 7.1 to 7.3 MHz in Regions 1 and 3, =
and
the fixed services above 7.3 MHz that would be affected by any upward
shift in broadcasting. Amateurs in the US and the rest of Region 2 enjoy =
a
300-kHz allocation from 7.0 to 7.3 MHz, but hams in the rest of the =
world,
Regions 1 and 3, have only 7.0 to 7.1 MHz.

Three alternative proposals have been passed on to Working Group 4C. =
"The
largest group favored realignment in two stages," Sumner explained. That
group included the US, CEPT, CITEL and the African Telecommunications
Union. The two steps would expand the band in Regions 1 and 3 by 100 kHz
in 2007 and add the remaining 100 kHz in 2015. Other plans put forth
contained longer time lines. By week's end, Sumner said, the issue could
be passed on to Committee 4 and then to the Plenary, where items need =
two
readings for ultimate WRC-03 approval.

The issue of an allocation for satellite-borne synthetic aperture radars
(SARs) in the 70-cm band (432-438 MHz) also appears well on the way to
resolution. "While it appears very likely that there will be an
allocation, it will be secondary," Sumner explained.

Full reports on WRC-03 activities are available on the IARU Web site
<http://www.iaru.org/news-releases.html>.

=3D=3D>AMATEURS RESPOND TO SOUTHWESTERN FIRES

Amateurs in the vicinity of Sandoval County, New Mexico, had just =
wrapped
up an activation to support emergency communication for personnel =
fighting
the Virgin Mesa fire about 50 miles north of Albuquerque when they were
notified to stand by for yet another fire right in the city. Meanwhile,
hams in Arizona remain ready to aid the fight to douse the huge Aspen =
Fire
north of Tucson. The Arizona fire is considered too dangerous for =
amateur
volunteers, however.

Amateur Radio Emergency Service (ARES) volunteers in New Mexico =
activated
to assist in the Virgin Mesa fire were released at midday June 24 and
replaced by a Type 2 Forest Team, said Sandoval County District =
Emergency
Coordinator Mike Scales, K5SCA. Hams could be called back in, however, =
if
the fire blows up again. Fire officials in New Mexico have ruled the
Virgin Mesa fire--burning since June 22--to have been human-caused. Some
200 firefighters were working the blaze, and no homes or developments =
were
threatened.

Aided by three members of the Los Alamos ARES team, Sandoval County hams
set up at the Incident Command post at the La Cueva Fire Station, said
Sandoval County ARES member Jay Miller, WA5WHN. Traffic was coordinated
through a 2-meter repeater in Rio Rancho. A number of hams were deployed
as fire-spotters and to support operating fire units.

On June 24, a fire that broke out in a wooded area--called the =
Bosque--in
the Albuquerque area caused some 600 residents to be evacuated and left =
an
estimated 16,000 people without power. Some 20 Sandoval County ARES
members stood by to assist Bernalillo County ARES if needed, Miller =
said.
The City of Albuquerque was able to handle the blaze, which destroyed an
upscale home under construction.

North of Tucson, Arizona, progress was made this week to contain the =
Aspen
Fire, which has destroyed more than 250 homes--and possibly more-since =
it
broke out June 17. At mid-week, fire officials said the blaze was 25
percent contained. More than 1200 firefighters and support personnel are
at the scene.

ARRL Arizona Section Manager Cliff Hauser, KD6XH, said that Arizona ARES
and RACES teams remain on-call, but that there is currently no organized
Amateur Radio effort to support of the firefighters.

"Fire fighting officials indicate that at this point it is still too
dangerous in the fire's vicinity for Amateur Radio operators or other
untrained volunteers to assist," Hauser explained. Hauser also pointed =
out
that high winds have been causing the massive fire to spread in sporadic
and unpredictable ways.

Chuck Smallhouse, W7CS, reports that he and several other amateurs
supported the Type I fire team brought in to contain and control the =
Aspen
Fire. In addition to Smallhouse, the team included Chuck Michels, =
KB7RFI;
Norm Martin, K7OLD; John Henderson, K7FCC; and John Glenn, K7RJR. "These
hams took off their Amateur Radio caps at the door and donned fire team
ones," Smallhouse said. He said the hams were needed to provide vital
communications support to the just-arrived skeleton crew until the
professionals showed up.

Lost in the Arizona forest fire was the Cactus Intertie System's =
repeater
equipment. The towers and repeaters were located very close to where the
fire got its start atop Mount Lemmon. Also burned was the Zia Connection
site, some 150 yards up the ridge from the Cactus site.

=3D=3D>CALIFORNIA ANTENNA BILL MOVES CLOSER TO GOVERNOR'S DESK

California's latest effort to pass an Amateur Radio antenna =
bill--Assembly
Bill 1228--this week passed the state Senate on a unanimous 38-0 vote.
Sponsored by freshman Assemblymember Bob Dutton (R-63rd), the bill
received unanimous approval April 10 in the California Assembly on a =
67-0
vote. It now returns to the Assembly for its approval of minor wording
changes made in the Senate. Given the prior unanimous vote, Dutton's
office expects Assembly approval to be routine, however.

"Certainly the people seem to be speaking here," said ARRL staff member
and antenna expert Dean Straw, N6BV, who lives in San Francisco. =
"Perhaps
Gov Davis should be alerted that there are 100,000 Amateur Radio =
operators
in California--and that we are also voters, should there be a recall
campaign." An effort under way to recall Gov Gray Davis, a Democrat, is
said to be gaining ground.

The California legislature approved a nearly identical PRB-1 measure =
three
years ago, but Davis vetoed it, because funds for required studies were
not included in his budget. The new bill carries no price tag.

ARRL Southwestern Division Director Art Goddard, W6XD, expressed elation
at the measure's unanimous California Senate vote. "That's a vote of
appreciation and confidence for Amateur Radio in California," he said.
ARRL Pacific Division Director Bob Vallio, W6RGG, spoke at an April 2
Assembly hearing on AB 1228. Dutton's office has recommended that =
amateurs
who urge Davis to sign the bill stress its emergency communication
benefits to the state, which has, by far, the largest number radio
amateurs of any other state and nearly 15 percent of US total.

AB 1228 would incorporate the language of PRB-1 into the statutes of
California. It would require any ordinance regulating Amateur Radio
antenna structures not to preclude but to "reasonably accommodate" =
Amateur
Radio communications, to allow amateur station antenna structures "at
heights and dimensions sufficient to accommodate Amateur Radio Service
communications" and to constitute "the minimum practicable regulation to
accomplish the legitimate purpose of the city or county."

Senate-added language that the Assembly must now approve declares that =
the
Legislature's intent in enacting the bill is to "codify in state law the
provisions of specified federal regulations relating to amateur radio
station facilities."

To date, 19 states have incorporated the essence of PRB-1 into their =
laws.

=3D=3D>OREGON SECTION MANAGER RECALLED IN RARE SPECIAL ELECTION

For only the third time in League history, an ARRL Section Manager has
been removed from office through a recall election. The audited vote to
oust freshman Oregon Section Manager Marshall D. Johnson, KK7CW, of
Albany, was 939 to 280, with eight invalid ballots. Members were asked =
to
vote "yes" to recall Johnson and "no" to retain him. Ballots were =
counted
June 24 at ARRL Headquarters, and the election tally was verified by a
certified public accountant. Oregon's SM since last July 1, Johnson was
recalled pursuant to the provisions of By Law 24 and Rule 5(g) of the =
ARRL
Field Organization. The position is now vacant until a successor is
appointed by ARRL Field and Educational Services Manager Rosalie White,
K1STO.

According to the ARRL By Laws, a Section Manager removed through a =
recall
election or by action of the Executive Committee may not run in the next
election following removal from office.

The last time an ARRL Section Manager was recalled was just over five
years ago in 1998, when ARRL members in the New York City-Long Island
Section voted to recall Section Manager Leonard Buonaiuto, then KE2LE. =
The
first SM to be recalled was former Vermont SM Frank Suitor, W1CTM, in
January 1990.

=3D=3D>LEAGUE WARNS OF BOGUS QST SOLICITATIONS

Someone has been attempting to sell "subscriptions" to QST, but it's not
the ARRL. ARRL Customer Service/Circulation Manager Kathy Capodicasa,
N1GZO, reports she's received several telephone calls and e-mails from
members reporting the scam.

"Apparently, there is some kind of bogus telephone solicitor out there
trying to get people's names, addresses and credit card numbers," she
said. "ARRL does not solicit for 'subscriptions' to QST." She warned =
that
under no circumstances should a member give out a credit card number to
someone trying to sell them QST over the telephone.

As the official membership journal of the ARRL, QST is not available to
the general public from a magazine distributor or outside publishing
house. Capodicasa advises those getting calls from the phony solicitor =
to
try to get the solicitor's name and to check the caller ID box, if they
have one, to obtain the caller's number. She requested that members =
share
any such information with her via e-mail to n1gzo@arrl.org or telephone,
860-594-0257.

=3D=3D>FIRST JOINT CUBA-US FIELD DAY OPERATION SET

Members of the Pi=F1a Colada Contest Club (KP2AA) will join forces with =
the
Federaci=F3n de Radioaficionados de Cuba in the first-ever joint Cuba-US
Field Day operation June 28-29. Operating as CO0US (and T42FD for the =
"Get
On The Air" newcomer station), the team will operate from a location =
near
Havana (Grid EL83) on 80 through 2 meters. Commemorative QSLs =
recognizing
the two countries' common interest in emergency communication =
preparedness
and international goodwill through Amateur Radio will be available via
K7JA (include an SASE or SAE and other return postage).

Participating Cuban operators will include Arnie Coro, CO2KK. Chip
Margelli, K7JA, will be among the US operators. "All the operators and
support people look forward to making as many QSOs as possible and =
testing
our ability to provide a wide-area emergency communications link
throughout the duration of Field Day," Margelli said.

This marks the second year that Field Day welcomes participation by
stations throughout International Amateur Radio Union Region 2--the
Americas. Operators outside the US and Canada exchange operating class =
and
"DX" as their "section" designator. No signal reports need be exchanged
during ARRL Field Day, which begins at 1800 UTC June 28 and ends 2100 =
UTC
June 29. Complete rules are on the ARRL Web site
<http://www.arrl.org/contests/rules/2003/rules-fd-2003.html>.--Chip
Margelli, K7JA

=3D=3D>SOLAR UPDATE

Solar seer Tad "The Sun Ain't Gonna Shine Anymore" Cook, K7RA, Seattle,
Washington, reports:

This week had somewhat quieter geomagnetic conditions compared to the
previous week, but average daily solar flux was down a bit and average
daily sunspot numbers remained about the same.  Recent projections
anticipate no truly quiet periods ahead.

ARRL Field Day is this weekend, and I wish the geomagnetic conditions
could be better.  The predicted planetary A index for Friday through
Monday is 20, 25, 20 and 20.  Although an A index of 25 for Saturday
doesn't look very promising, this prediction is made several days prior,
and like weather forecasts, the real conditions could be different.  In
addition, a planetary A index of 20 or 25 doesn't guarantee a radio
blackout on the high frequencies.

Sunspot numbers for June 19 through 25 were 108, 121, 118, 94, 104, 131,
and 115, with a mean of 113. 10.7 cm flux was 122.9, 116.9, 115, 110.2,
113.5, 114.5, and 116.3, with a mean of 115.6. Estimated planetary A
indices were 18, 12, 23, 16, 20, 31, and 19, with a mean of 19.9.

=3D=3D>IN BRIEF:

* This weekend on the radio: ARRL Field Day
<http://www.arrl.org/contests/rules/2003/rules-fd-2003.html>, the =
Marconi
Memorial HF Contest, the QRP ARCI Milliwatt Field Day and the His =
Majesty
the King of Spain Contest (SSB) are the weekend of June 28-29. JUST =
AHEAD:
The RAC Canada Day Contest is July 1. The Michigan QRP July 4th CW =
Sprint
is July 4-5. The Venezuelan Independence Day Contest (SSB/CW), the DL-DX
RTTY Contest and the DARC 10-Meter Digital Contest are the weekend of =
July
5-6. See the ARRL Contest Branch page <http://www.arrl.org/contests/> =
and
the WA7BNM Contest Calendar
<http://www.hornucopia.com/contestcal/index.html> for more info.

* Attention clubs participating in Field Day 2003! ARRL asks clubs =
taking
part in ARRL Field Day 2003 June 28-29 to share their Field Day tips and
setup strategies with other clubs. Send items to Margie Bourgoin, KB1DCO
<kb1dco@arrl.org>. This is your chance to claim bragging rights as well =
as
to confess the ways that Murphy has graced your carefully-planned =
efforts!
Also, visit the Club Companion Web site
<http://www.arrl.org/FandES/field/club/> and check out "Our Club's Field
Day" to see what other clubs are doing.

* New Field Day Class F still attracting questions: ARRL Contest Branch
Manager Dan Henderson, N1ND, says he's still getting questions from =
clubs
and groups planning to operate under the new Class F category in Field
Day. The most popular of ARRL's operating events, Field Day takes place
June 28-29. Henderson advises that unless clubs and individual operators
have recently updated their logging software to accept Class F as a =
valid
class, they may run into problems. "If this happens to your group," he
said, "take manual notes about any problems and correct the log after
Field Day, but before submitting it the to the ARRL." Henderson says =
most
questions he's been getting already are covered in the Field Day rules
<http://www.arrl.org/contests/rules/2003/rules-fd-2003.html> and in the
list of frequently asked questions, which is part of the Field Day =
packet
<http://www.arrl.org/contests/forms/03fdpack.pdf> (scroll down to Class =
F
Station FAQs for information on that class). More than 1.4 million
contacts were logged during Field Day 2002. Class F stations operate =
from
an established emergency operations center (EOC) activated by a club or
non-club group. Class F operation must take place from an established =
EOC
site. Stations may utilize equipment and antennas temporarily or
permanently installed at the EOC. A station may not enter Class F if
operating from a mobile communications van deployed from an EOC, =
however.
Those entries will be Class A or Class C (mobile), depending on the
circumstances. An EOC is operated by a federal, state, county, city or
other civil government, agency or administrative entity or by a chapter =
of
a served agency (such as the Red Cross or Salvation Army) with which =
your
local group has an established operating arrangement. Class F operation
must take place in cooperation with the staff of the EOC being =
activated.
The W1AW Field Day bulletin schedule is available on the ARRL Web site
<http://www.arrl.org/contests/forms/w1aw-fd-sked-2003.html>. For
additional Field Day information or questions contact the ARRL Contest
Branch <contests@arrl.org> or call 860 594-0232.

* Western Washington gets new Section Manager: Veteran ARRL Western
Washington Section Manager Harry Lewis, W7JWJ, is stepping down as of =
July
1. Assistant Section Manager Ed Bruette, N7NVP, of Poulsbo--the only
candidate who had filed to succeed Lewis in the fall--will fill the
remaining three months of Lewis's term. ARRL Field and Educational
Services Manager Rosalie White, K1STO, announced Lewis's early departure
and Bruette's nomination June 26. "Your work as Section Manager for more
than a dozen years has touched many people for the good of Amateur =
Radio,"
White said in praise of Lewis's tenure as SM. A ham since the 1940s, =
Lewis
has served as Western Washington Section Manager since January 1991. =
Lewis
will continue as Technical Coordinator. He had indicated earlier this =
year
that he would not seek another term as SM, and Bruette was running
unopposed for the Section Manager's seat. Lewis's wife, former
Northwestern Division Director Mary Lewis, W7QGP, also is leaving her
current post as a Western Washington Assistant Section Manager. Bruette
has been an ASM since January 2003 and was Section Emergency Coordinator
from 1998 through 2002. He is also the Washington State RACES officer.

* No joy for New York ham antenna bills: ARRL Hudson Division Director
Frank Fallon, N2FF, reports no success in the third effort to get a ham
radio antenna bill through the New York Legislature. The current session
wrapped up June 19. "Thanks for your support, but we were not =
successful,"
Fallon said in a statement to his Division. "We have a very difficult
project here." The bills--A2662 in the Assembly and S63 in the
Senate--were introduced in January. The bills went beyond simply
incorporating the limited federal preemption, PRB-1, into state law. =
They
would have prohibited municipalities from passing laws or ordinances to
"restrict antenna support structure height to less than 95 feet above
ground level or restrict the number of antenna support structures." =
Fallon
noted that other states have been able to get antenna bills enacted, but
very few of them include minimum regulatory heights. Fallon said the
Hudson Division leadership remains committed to securing passage of a =
bill
in both New York and New Jersey that specifies a height below which =
local
governments may not regulate. Fallon said this session's bills died for
lack of action, despite visits to the capital in Albany during the past
two weeks of the session to meet personally with key lawmakers. "The
legislature was very distracted this year with other issues and =
problems,"
Fallon said. That included the arrest of a key aide to Speaker of the
House Sheldon Silver days before the session ended. "We are disappointed
but not discouraged," Fallon concluded. "We will be working on gaining
additional support between now and next January, when the next session
opens."

* ARRL's 2002 Annual Report is available: The League's 2002 Annual =
Report
is currently available to members free of charge upon request. The =
report
offers an overview of League activities for the year, messages from ARRL
President Jim Haynie, W5JBP, and Chief Executive Officer David Sumner,
K1ZZ, along with ARRL's complete audited financial statements for 2002.
Send requests--including your name, call sign and mailing address--to
Media Relations Manager Jennifer Hagy, N1TDY, jhagy@arrl.org.  Due to =
the
large number of requests for the 2002 Annual Report, individual replies =
to
everyone who e-mailed may not be possible. All requests will be honored =
in
the order they were received at ARRL Headquarters. The report also is
available on-line as a PDF document
<http://www.arrl.org/announce/annualreport/02ar.pdf>.

* Correction: The story "Ham's Ticket Set Aside as FCC Investigates
Allegations of False Distress Calls" in The ARRL Letter, Vol 22, No 25
(Jun 20, 2003) contained some erroneous information. FCC Special Counsel
Riley Hollingsworth explains that the FCC Wireless Telecommunicaitons
Bureau set aside Michael V. Swift's license grant for KG6QOB was set =
aside
and his application has reverted to pending status while the =
investigation
continues. The WTB has a 30-day window to set aside a license grant on =
its
own motion, Hollingsworth explained, although the Universal Licensing
System indicates Swift's ticket was canceled May 29.

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
The ARRL Letter is published Fridays, 50 times each year, by the =
American
Radio Relay League--The National Association For Amateur Radio--225 Main
St, Newington, CT 06111; tel 860-594-0200; fax 860-594-0259;
<http://www.arrl.org>. Jim Haynie, W5JBP, President.

The ARRL Letter offers a weekly e-mail digest of essential news of
interest to active amateurs. The ARRL Letter strives to be timely,
accurate, concise, and readable. Visit ARRLWeb <http://www.arrl.org> for
the latest news, updated as it happens. The ARRL Web site
<http://www.arrl.org/> offers access to news, informative features and
columns. ARRL Audio News <http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter/audio/> is a
weekly "ham radio newscast" compiled from The ARRL Letter.

Material from The ARRL Letter may be republished or reproduced in whole =
or
in part in any form without additional permission. Credit must be given =
to
The ARRL Letter and The American Radio Relay League.

=3D=3D>Delivery problems (ARRL member direct delivery only!):
letter-dlvy@arrl.org
=3D=3D>Editorial questions or comments: Rick Lindquist, N1RL, =
n1rl@arrl.org
=3D=3D>ARRL News on the Web: <http://www.arrl.org>
=3D=3D>ARRL Audio News: <http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter/audio/> or call
860-594-0384

=3D=3D>How to Get The ARRL Letter
The ARRL Letter is available to ARRL members free of charge directly =
from
ARRL HQ. To subscribe, unsubscribe or change your address for e-mail
delivery:
ARRL members first must register on the Members Only Web Site
<http://www.arrl.org/members/>. You'll have an opportunity during
registration to sign up for e-mail delivery of The ARRL Letter, W1AW
bulletins, and other material. To change these selections--including
delivery of The ARRL Letter--registered members should click on the
"Member Data Page" link (in the Members Only box). Click on "Modify
membership data," check or uncheck the appropriate boxes and/or change
your e-mail address if necessary. (Check "Temporarily disable all
automatically sent email" to temporarily stop all e-mail deliveries.)
Then, click on "Submit modification" to make selections effective. =
(NOTE:
HQ staff members cannot change your e-mail delivery address. You must do
this yourself via the Members Only Web Site.)

The ARRL Letter also is available to all, free of charge, from these
sources:

* ARRLWeb <http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter/>. (NOTE: The ARRL Letter will
be posted each Friday when it is distributed via e-mail.)

* The QTH.net listserver, thanks to volunteers from the Boston Amateur
Radio Club: Visit Mailing Lists@QTH.Net
<http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/letter-list>. (NOTE: The ARRL
cannot assist subscribers who receive The ARRL Letter via this
listserver.)


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun 28 10:45:46 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2003 04:45:46 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/28/2003 4:45:46 AM
Message-ID: <200306280946.EAA17624@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 280944
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
430 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

FIRST WAVE COMPLEX ALOFT FROM SOUTHERN MN...INTO WESTERN IA KICKING
UP CURRENT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ROLLING ACRS THE EASTERN HALF OF IA AND
EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHEAST KS ATTM. WESTERN EXTENT OF UPPER
WAVE BECOMING CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED. IN-FEED MECHANISMS BECOMING
BIT MORE DISORGANIZED AND COMPLEX IS WEAKENING IN NORTH HALF...AND
SHOULD DECREASE/EXIT THE CWA RATHER EARLY IN THE FIRST PERIOD.
SOUTHERN 1/3 TO HALF OF THE CWA TO EXPERIENCE SOMEWHAT LONGER
DURATION OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST
VORT EXTENSION STILL ACRS WESTERN IA. AS MORNING ACTIVITY SUBSIDES
AND SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACRS SOUTHERN MN INTO SOUTHWEST
WI...EXPECT SOME ATMOSPHERIC RECHARGE IN THE LOCAL AREA TO TAKE PLACE
IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF INSOLATION REBOUND AND IF SFC
DPTS CAN REACH LOW TO MID 60S...CAPES COULD APPROACH 2K J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. LOBE OF INCREASED DEEP CONVECTIVE INDICES SET UP RIGHT
OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA BY 18Z. SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL SUGGEST
TRAILING TROUGH OFF SFC LOW JUST TO THE NORTH TO SWEEP INTO THIS
UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBILITY OVER
ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA...EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST CORNER. FCST SOUNDING
WIND SHEAR PROFILES...CAPES AND UNSTABLE LAYERS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE OF 1 INCH HAIL...OR WIND GUSTS UP TO 63 MPH(BLEP
TECHNIQUE DERIVED). ONGOING PACKAGE DEFINETLY HANDLING THERMAL
POTENTIAL WELL WITH ADVERTISED HIGH TEMPS...BUT CONCERN OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS MAY TONE DOWN A BIT EXCEPT ACRS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...AND THE NORTHWEST WHERE EXPECT MAINLY A CONVECTIVE FREE
AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY VORT SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY OVER SASKATCHEWAN ATTM...PROGGED
TO SHEAR DOWN ACRS MN AND WI OVERNIGHT. ETA AND GFS SHOW DECENT
BULLSEYE OF POS OMEGAS BLEEDING SOUTH INTO THE CWA AFTER 06Z SUN...
AND FEEL FAR NORTHERN CWA TO GET CLIPPED BY ENOUGH CVA AND FOR LATE
NIGHT SHOWER OR STORM CHANCE.

WITH LLVL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY GETTING PUSHED AND LAID OUT SOUTH OF
THE CWA TONIGHT IN A WEST-TO-EAST FASHION(SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL VARY
ON SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS PLACEMENT OF LLVL THERMAL RIBBON AND
FOCAL POINT OF THTA-E CONVERGENCE)...FAR SOUTHERN CWA PROBABLY WILL
BE PRECIP FREE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP LOWER POPS FOR POTENTIAL SHOWN
BY FAVORED UKMET HANDLING. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND UPPER LOW SHIFTING EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN GRT LKS...ACT
TOGETHER TO SHUNT BRIEF BOUT OF WESTERLY UPPER FLOW FURTHER NORTH
ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BOTH
PUSH BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA...AND
USHER VORT PIECES OUT OF CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. WILL
KEEP LOW POPS GOING ACRS THE SOUTH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONVECTION OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY AFFECTING
THE CWA. THIS GOES ALONG WITH SOME BIAS SHOWN TO MODELS WITH A
MORE NORTHERN BOUNDARY PLACEMENT SOLUTION.

NO CHANGE TO LONGER RANGE FOR NOW...

COORDINATED WITH ILX VIA 12PLANET CHAT...THANX!

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

12





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun 28 11:03:08 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2003 05:03:08 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/28/2003 5:03:08 AM
Message-ID: <200306281003.FAA20306@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 281000
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-291000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
459 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS 
THE AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT 
RAINFALL BEHIND...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT OF UP TO 2 
INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS.  THIS AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE IS 
EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AND A SURFACE TROUGH 
OR WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH 
THIS COMBINATION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST 
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.  
THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY 
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING INTERNET WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN (ALL LOWER CASE)

LIGHTNING AWARENESS WEEK - JUNE 22-28, 2003.
AT HTTP://WWW.LIGHTNINGSAFETY.NOAA.GOV

$$

LE






From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sat Jun 28 23:02:57 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2003 17:02:57 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/28/2003 5:02:57 PM
Message-ID: <200306282202.RAA02167@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 282143
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
430 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

MESOSCALE VORT MAX SHIFTING INTO MI ATTIM. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG OUTFLOW ARCING FROM ROUGHLY CLINTON IA TO
PRINCETON IL TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO. MID LEVEL FORCING ABSENT...WHICH
SUPPORTS PULSE TYPE STORMS WITH ISOLATED HAIL/WIND.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM NEAR DUBUQUE TO NEWTON. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE NATION/S MIDSECTION.
NEXT DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW DIVING THROUGH EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND
POSES A CONCERN LATER IN SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
DISTURBANCE DIVING THROUGH MT WILL INTERACT WITH 
TAIL OF SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT AND LLJ TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE 
COMPLEX IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CORFIDI VECTORS YIELD S/SE MOVEMENT 
WHICH WOULD TAKE COMPLEX INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. JET MAX
PROGGED TO DIVE THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST WITH LEFT EXIT REGION AND
OMEGA BRUSHING FAR NORTH...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTH 
OF U.S. HIGHWAY 30

SUNDAY...DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
MID LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH WITH
AREA IN BETWEEN...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT TO AID PCPN 
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY HANGING NEARBY CAN/T 
RULE OUT AND ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN FAR SOUTH...SO KEPT PREVIOUS
SHIFTS TOKEN 20 POP. 

SUNDAY NIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW TO INTERACT WITH TAIL
END OF DIFFUSE FRONT TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AGAIN
IN THE PLAINS. MODELS SPAWN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AND SHIFT 
THIS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL BY 12Z MON.
GFS APPEARS WAY OVERDONE ON QPF AND TOO FAR NORTH...THUS
FAVOR FURTHER SOUTH ETA. HAVE POPS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE 
CWA WITH HIGHEST...ALBEIT STILL CHANCE POPS...IN THE FAR SOUTH.
MID CREW WILL WANT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AND RE-EVALUATE THE 
POTENTIAL. LOT/S OF UNCERTAINTY WITH MESOSCALE DETAILS TO PRECLUDE
GOING ANY HIGHER ON POPS ATTIM. 

SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN MON AND TUE PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. BULK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN 
THE PLAINS BENEATH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. 

EXTENDED (WED-SAT)
NO MAJOR CHANGES. HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO THE 
AREA BY THURS AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEEK WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. 

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$






From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sun Jun 29 09:29:28 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sun, 29 Jun 2003 03:29:28 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/29/2003 3:29:28 AM
Message-ID: <200306290828.DAA14937@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 290826
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
325 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003

LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER EASTERN AND 
SOUTHERN IOWA...DRAPED FROM NEAR KDEH TO JUST WEST OF KCID...THEN 
DSOUTHWEST TO KICL.  SOME WEAK SHOWERS/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST 
OF THIS FRONT...BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE OF INTEREST ACROSS THE CWA THIS 
MORNING.  LARGE MCS COMPLEX OVER KANSAS WELL SUPPORTED BY GOOD 850MB 
JET...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. GOOD THERMAL AND MOISTURE 
AXIS ACROSS KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI AT 00Z...WHICH SHOULD KEEP 
THIS MCS TREKKING EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY.  

12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL.  AS OF 06Z 
THE AVN HAS PICKED UP A QPF BULLSEYE...PROBABLY FEEDBACK...AND 
GENERALLY LOOKS TOO STRONG WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE INVERTED SURFACE 
TROUGH NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  HAVE LEANED PRETTY HEAVILY ON THE ETA 
THIS FORECAST.  

THE CURRENT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED AND/OR 
MOVED EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY 6 AM...SO DECIDED TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF 
THE ZFP FOR NOW...AND WILL HANDLE WITH A NOWCAST TIL THEY 
DISSIPATE.  FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST...AND BY 18Z IS ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA.  SEGMENTS OF THE DECAYING MCS MAY 
MANAGE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS 
BOUNDARY...AND SOME NEW CONVECTION MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  
SO...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS FAR SOUTH DURING THE DAY 
TODAY.  TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  

TONIGHT A FRESH MCS RE-INITIATES OVER KANSAS...PROPAGATING EAST 
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT.  THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HANGS UP ACROSS 
NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH NOTHING NEW TO PUSH IT FURTHERN EAST.  ONCE 
AGAIN...THOUGH BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH AND 
WEST...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH 
WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY.  ...LE

THERE IS A RATHER LOW DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER WE WILL SEE 
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  THE ETA...AS WELL AS MOST 
OTHER MODELS...INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL IN DEPICTING THE IMPRESSIVE 
MCS ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. ALL SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT 
THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING 
PRECIP TO AREAS WHERE IT TRACKS. HOWEVER...AS USUAL...THE TRACKS ARE 
NOT ALIKE.  THE ETA IS THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE DISSIPATING VORT 
MAX...AND THE SLOWEST...LINGERING IT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.  THE 
NGM AND GFS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH.  FEEL THAT WITH 
THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA NOW...THE CURRENT 
FORECAST POPS OF 20S CENTRAL TO 40 SOUTH MONDAY IS ON TRACK. WILL 
ADD SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTHERN THIRD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
...AS GFS ALSO SUPPORTS ISOLATED PRECIP THROUGH AFTERNOON 
INSTABILITY AND A WEAK UPPER WAVE.  

IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WELL ADVERTISED BY ALL 
EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALSO WITH BRINGING A 
POTENT WAVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  THIS 
SHOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD THE CWA THURSDAY/NIGHT.  
SEASONALLY WEAK FLOW IS PROGGED AFTER THE THIS TIME...AND WITH THE 
BOUNDARY HUNG UP SOMEWHERE WITHIN A DEGREE OF LATITUDE OF INTERSTATE 
80...CHANCE OF THUNDER SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.  ...ERVIN 

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$



















From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sun Jun 29 14:52:07 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sun, 29 Jun 2003 08:52:07 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/29/2003 8:52:06 AM
Message-ID: <200306291351.IAA02820@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 291349
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-301000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
831 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL 
ILLINOIS TODAY.  THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH 
OF HIGHWAY 34.  HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA FROM A COMPLEX 
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI WILL HELP 
KEEP TEMPERATURES AT BAY TODAY.  COMBINED WITH THE WEAK FLOW OVER 
THE AREA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF 
INTERSTATE 80 ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED 
ON EITHER DAY.  THE REGION CAN EXPECT A WET INDEPENDENCE DAY 
WEEKEND...AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND STALLS 
OUT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN IOWA...AND NORTHWEST 
ILLINOIS.   THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT PROBABLE FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME 
FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING INTERNET WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN (ALL LOWER CASE)

$$

LRE






From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sun Jun 29 20:10:02 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sun, 29 Jun 2003 14:10:02 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/29/2003 2:10:02 PM
Message-ID: <200306291909.OAA27348@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 291906
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
205 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003

.OVERVIEW...SATELLITE AND RADAR SUPPORT STORM ENHANCED MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX...OR MCV CAUSED BY LAST NIGHT/S STORMS...LOCATED IN
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.  THIS SYSTEM IS ON THE WEST END OF A VERY WEAK
AND DIFFUSE COOL FRONT RUNNING FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST NEAR MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER...INTO A WEAK SFC LOW
IN NW OKLAHOMA.  SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORT BEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY TO STAY JUST SOUTH
OF FORECAST AREA WITH POSSIBLY CHANCE SOME PRECIPITATION SOUTHERN ROW
OR TWO OF COUNTIES...WILL USE NOWCAST TOOLS NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO
ASSESS.  NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AT LEAST SOUTHERN 1/3 TO 1/2 CWFA TO HAVE
SOME CLOUDS DUE TO SYSTEM/BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS BEHIND FRONT SLIDING
INTO MID TO UPPER 50S FOR COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TROPICAL STORM
BILL IN WESTERN GULF IS GAINING STRENGTH AS HEADS NORTH TOWARD
LOUISIANA/TEXAS.  UPPER FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS MOISTURE AS FAR
NORTH AS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WILL MONITOR.

...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING POPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NEAR TERM CONCERN
WITH MID WEEK MOISTURE MEDIUM RANGE ISSUE...

.DIAGNOSIS (DAYS 1-3)...ALL MODELS REASONABLE ON BOUNDARY BECOMING
STATIONERY NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH MONDAY.  SATELLITE AT
1830Z SHOWS LINE OF ENHANCED CLOUDS FORMING ~30 NM SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA.  WILL USE THIS AS PRIMARY TOOL TO ASSESS POPS TONIGHT.
RIGHT NOW...SUGGEST ~40 POPS SOUTHERN ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES.  UPPER
FORCING SUGGEST STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO FORECAST AREA TO SLIDE SOUTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS NEXT FEW DAYS WITH TEMPS
WITHIN A CATEGORY OF GUIDANCE BLEND...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE...
BEST CHANCE NORTH TONIGHT WITH LOWS BELOW GUIDANCE IF CLEAR OUT AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.  CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
LATE PM STORM THROUGH TUESDAY BUT LIMITED ORGANIZED FORCING SUGGEST
LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME AND PASS TO LATER SHIFTS.  BIGGEST QUESTION
TUESDAY IS POTENTIAL IMPACT OF TROPICAL STORM BILL...IF ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES MISSOURI WOULD SUPPORT POPS...AGAIN...PASS TO
LATER SHIFTS.

.EXTENDED (THU-SUN)...ALL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST COLD FRONT MOVING IN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR ACTIVE PERIOD WITH MODERATE STRENGTH ZONAL
WINDS OF 35-50 KNOTS AT MID LEVELS.  LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO 60S (MODERATE TO HIGH
BUOYANCY AND MOISTURE) SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION
ORGANIZING INTO TYPICAL SUMMER CONVECTIVE STORM SYSTEMS...PRODUCING
POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS AND EVEN CHANCE OF A
LARGER SCALE WIND SYSTEM CALLED DERECHOES.  MAX WIND POTENTIAL OF 70
MPH OR MORE WITH SOME HAIL...WILL UPDATE HWODVN FOR THIS RISK AND
KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.  WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY
FOR NOW AS SUGGESTION BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH BY THEN.  TEMPS
WITHIN 1 CATEGORY OF MEX...MAINLY ON HIGH SIDE WED/THU.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

NICHOLS





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Sun Jun 29 20:23:32 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Sun, 29 Jun 2003 14:23:32 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/29/2003 2:23:32 PM
Message-ID: <200306291923.OAA29730@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 291920
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-301100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
215 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL 
ILLINOIS THROUGH MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A 
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE IOWA AND 
MISSOURI BORDER.  WEAK FLOW AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A LOW 
RISK OF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA...THOUGH SOME SEVERE 
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF KIRKSVILLE TO QUINCY TO BLOOMINGTON 
LINE. 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SLOW MOVING 
COOL FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  HIGH MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH A FEW STORMS THAT MAY 
REACH SEVERE LEVELS.   THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 
70 MPH WITH A SECONDARY RISK OF LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF 
QUARTERS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.  THE FRONT WILL SLIDE 
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.  

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE 
OF SPOTTER ACTIVATION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING INTERNET WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN (ALL LOWER CASE)

$$

NICHOLS








From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun 30 10:55:06 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Mon, 30 Jun 2003 04:55:06 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/30/2003 4:55:06 AM
Message-ID: <200306300954.EAA01341@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 300952
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-010945-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
452 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE 
WEDNESDAY.  HIGH MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH A FEW 
STORMS THAT MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS.   THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE 
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.  THE FRONT 
WILL STALL OUT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR THE 
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND 
OVER THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.  

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING INTERNET WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN (ALL LOWER CASE)







From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun 30 09:49:45 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Mon, 30 Jun 2003 03:49:45 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/30/2003 3:49:45 AM
Message-ID: <200306300850.DAA20617@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 300847
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
347 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN 
ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED 
WITH AN 850MB FRONT...AS ANALYZED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR CHARTS.  
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THAT THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY 
SHIFTING SOUTH...AND HAS BEEN WEAKENING.  

TODAY THE 850MB FRONT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH...SO PRECIP 
THAT HAS BEEN BRUSHING THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA SHOULD 
BE DONE WITH PRECIP BEFORE MID MORNING.  CIRRUS FROM CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY OVER THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP 
OVER THE AREA AS IT DID YESTERDAY...AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPS 
GENERALLY BELOW GUIDANCE...WHICH WOULD HAVE WORKED WELL YESTERDAY 
TOO.  FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE A LOT LESS CIRRUS...SO WENT 
WARMER THERE.  TONIGHT ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF CIRRUS SHOULD BE 
LINGERING OVER THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE STILL IN PLACE...AND TEMPS TO 
DROP OFF REASONABLY WELL OVERNIGHT.    ...LE

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TILT TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DECAYING TO OUR 
SOUTHEAST...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION 
BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH 
THIS PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  IN 
ALL...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE DOMINATED BY RATHER 
PLEASANT EARLY JULY WEATHER. 

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CONSISTENTLY A FRONT DROPPING INTO THE 
AREA THURSDAY AS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN 
CANADA FLATTENS THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT 
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ALONG AND NORTH OF 
45N LATITUDE. FINE DETAILS OF FRONTAL POSITION AND RESULTANT 
EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE 
TO PIN DOWN UNTIL CLOSER IN. THERE WILL A DAILY THREAT OF DECAYING 
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE MORNINGS...WITH EVENING STORMS 
POSSIBLE AS WELL...THEREFORE WITH RE-INTRODUCE POPS FOR THE 
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL MESH WELL WITH SURROUNDING GRIDS. UNTIL THINGS 
GET CLOSER IN...WILL KEEP POPS LOW (30S) IN THESE PERIODS...ALTHOUGH 
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION... 
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THESE REMAINS LOW. 

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$





















From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun 30 16:00:38 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Duane Whittingham)
Date: Mon, 30 Jun 2003 10:00:38 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Missing Child
Message-ID: <20030630150039.30516.qmail@iname.com>

Passing on as a FYI:

Missing Child|unknown Albion (Edwards), |ISP alert message states a 13yr Old Matthew Brown is missing from his home last seen in a black t-shirt and shorts and tennis shoes, the child has short hair/ no further/|

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Duane Whittingham (N9SSN) - Producer
Tom and Darryl Radio Shows & Saturday Morning Confusion
Heard on C-Band Analog Satellite (W0KIE) - GE7-CH5-7.5 mHz
WTND-LP Macomb 106.3, WQNA FM, WBCQ 7415 kHz & the Internet.
Heard Fridays 9pm ET, Sundays 12am ET and Tuesdays 1am ET
An Independent Freeform Eclectic Radio Show.
http://www.tomanddarryl.org
http://www.wtnd.us

-- 
__________________________________________________________
Sign-up for your own FREE Personalized E-mail at Mail.com
http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup


From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun 30 16:17:19 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (Dave Nissen)
Date: Mon, 30 Jun 2003 10:17:19 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Missing Child
References: <20030630150039.30516.qmail@iname.com>
Message-ID: <006501c33f1a$b32d5ce0$cb2b3540@0018403116>

Missing when, and from what city/state?

W9COP

No trees were destroyed in the sending of this message.
However, a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced
----- Original Message -----
From: "Duane Whittingham" <radio-dude@iname.com>
To: <learc@mailman.qth.net>
Sent: Monday, June 30, 2003 10:00 AM
Subject: [LeArc] Missing Child


> See http://www.qsl.net/learc/ for club information.
>
> Membership Dues are due.
>
> Quad City National Weather Service Area Amateur Radio Test on April 12 at
10:00 AM.
>
> Next club meeting April 8 at 7:00 PM.
>
> Please join us on Sunday Evenings for the
> Lamoine Emergency ARC Sunday Evening Net.
> Net time is 8:00 PM local time.
>
>
> Passing on as a FYI:
>
> Missing Child|unknown Albion (Edwards), |ISP alert message states a 13yr
Old Matthew Brown is missing from his home last seen in a black t-shirt and
shorts and tennis shoes, the child has short hair/ no further/|
>
> -----------------------------------------------------------------
> Duane Whittingham (N9SSN) - Producer
> Tom and Darryl Radio Shows & Saturday Morning Confusion
> Heard on C-Band Analog Satellite (W0KIE) - GE7-CH5-7.5 mHz
> WTND-LP Macomb 106.3, WQNA FM, WBCQ 7415 kHz & the Internet.
> Heard Fridays 9pm ET, Sundays 12am ET and Tuesdays 1am ET
> An Independent Freeform Eclectic Radio Show.
> http://www.tomanddarryl.org
> http://www.wtnd.us
>
> --
> __________________________________________________________
> Sign-up for your own FREE Personalized E-mail at Mail.com
> http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup
>
> _______________________________________________
>
> Lamoine Emergency Amateur Radio Club
>
>     W9SSP  - 147.060 (103.5 tone)
>
>           WB9TEA - 444.300
>
> Meetings on the second Tuesday of the month.
> 7:00 PM at the American Red Cross Building in Macomb.
>
> Next meeting will be December 10, 2002.
>
> Hope to see you there.
>
>
> LeArc mailing list
> LeArc@mailman.qth.net
> http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/learc
>



From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun 30 20:18:53 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Mon, 30 Jun 2003 14:18:53 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/30/2003 2:18:53 PM
Message-ID: <200306301918.OAA00621@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 301915
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
210 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

.OVERVIEW...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AT 18Z.  UPPER AIR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
LITTLE CHANGE...TROPICAL STORM BILL TO MOVE INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY
NEXT 36 HOURS.  THIS WILL KEEP REGION UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.  SLOW MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS REASONABLE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  QUIET...SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...TEMPERATURES NEXT FEW DAYS NEAR TERM CHALLENGE WITH LATE WEEK
MOISTURE MEDIUM RANGE ISSUE...

.DIAGNOSIS (DAYS 1-3)...MODELS SIMILAR HANDLING LARGER SCALE FEATURES
WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES...SO FAIR WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS.
PERSISTENCE MAIN GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR TEMPS AS LOW DEWPOINTS IN AREA
SUPPORT MINS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE BLEND.  THEN...HIGHS WITH
LOTS OF SUN AGAIN NEAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE BLEND.  THEN TREND
TOWARD MODEL BLEND WEDNESDAY.  DAY 3...ALL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT SLOW
MOVING COOL FRONT LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE WAVE.  REVIEWING THERMAL
AND KINEMATIC PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS (BOW ECHOES) OR POSSIBLY
DERECHO NORTH HALF.  HIGH BUOYANCY (CAPE AOA 2500...LI'S -6 OR LOWER)
WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE (SFC DEWPOINTS 65-70F WITH 850 DEWPOINTS +14 TO
+18C).  THEN ADD MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40 KTS MAKE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION A CERTAINLY WITH ONLY QUESTION TIMING AND LOCATIONS.  GO
40 POPS THURSDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST ONE HALF AND 30 POPS ELSEWHERE WITH
LATE WORDING.  OPT TO KEEP FOG OUT OF FORECAST TONIGHT WITH AREA
VISIBILITIES OF 3 TO 6 MILES DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.

.EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...MODERATE ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
ALOFT AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES NEARBY SUGGESTED BY ALL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS FOR ACTIVE PERIOD.  CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE EVENTS WITH MID LEVEL WINDS OF 30-50 KNOTS.  ADD VERY WARM
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS TO THIS ENVIRONMENT...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70 (HIGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE) BOWING SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY
DERECHOES...OR LARGER SCALE HIGH WIND SYSTEMS. PRELIMINARY
CALCULATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MAX WIND POTENTIAL OF 70 MPH OR MORE
WITH SOME HAIL...WILL UPDATE HWODVN FOR THIS RISK AND KEEP CHANCE
SHOWERS STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.  KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW AS SUGGESTION
NW FLOW RETURNS AND BOUNDARIES SLIDE SOUTH BY THEN. TEMPS WITHIN 1
CATEGORY OF MEX...MAINLY ON HIGH SIDE THU/FRI.  TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE
MUCH BETTER IDEA OF MAGNITUDES...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

NICHOLS





From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun 30 20:29:43 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Mon, 30 Jun 2003 14:29:43 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/30/2003 2:29:43 PM
Message-ID: <200306301929.OAA04492@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 301926
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-0101045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
225 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SLOW MOVING 
COOL FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION STARTING THURSDAY.  LOTS OF  
MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE EPISODES OF 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY RISK 
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINS.  THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND 
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RISK SOUTH
OF I-80 THIS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING INTERNET WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN (ALL LOWER CASE)

$$

NICHOLS









From learc@mailman.qth.net  Mon Jun 30 20:33:09 2003
From: learc@mailman.qth.net (learc@mailman.qth.net)
Date: Mon, 30 Jun 2003 14:33:09 -0500
Subject: [LeArc] HWODVN@ 6/30/2003 2:33:09 PM
Message-ID: <200306301932.OAA05820@ecom1.wiu.edu>

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 301929
HWODVN

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-009
-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-011045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED EXPIRATION CODING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
228 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SLOW MOVING 
COOL FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION STARTING THURSDAY.  LOTS OF  
MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE EPISODES OF 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY RISK 
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINS.  THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND 
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RISK SOUTH
OF I-80 THIS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING INTERNET WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN (ALL LOWER CASE)

$$

NICHOLS










