[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/30/2003 4:02:16 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 302044
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
341 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2003

WEAK SURFACE FRONT LOCATED FROM SE MN THRU SW IA BY MID AFTERNOON.  
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION POPPING
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER N CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IA.  MORE 
CONVECTION LOCATED OVER NRN IL AND SRN WI...AHEAD OF VORT LOBE 
ROTATING AROUND H5 LOW OVER S CENTRAL CANADA.  

NEAR TERM CONCERNS WILL BE TSRA TRENDS AND SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT...
THEN CONTINUE THREAT OF TSRA WITH H5 LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING SE 
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES NEXT FEW DAYS.  LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION 
JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BE THE DIURNAL VARIETY WITH LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE BEING ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON HEATING. THERE IS VERY 
LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AVAILABLE TO KEEP TSRA GOING MUCH PAST THIS 
EVENING.  SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL.  GREATEST THREAT WILL 
BE OVER NORTHEAST CWA WHERE WBZ ARE AROUND 10KFT AND COULD SUPPORT 
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  DRY MID LEVELS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME 
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  HOWEVER...IF ANY SEVERE TSRA...DEVELOP...THEY 
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND PULSY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR. AFTER THIS EVENING 
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO 
OUR WEST UNTIL FRIDAY...KEEPING CWA IN REGION OF WEAK SWLY SFC 
FLOW.  ANOTHER VORT LOBE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF 
TSRA OVER THE CWA.  THIS LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST SHOT AT ORGANIZED 
CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL HOLD ONTO 50 POPS ALREADY IN 
FORECAST.  MODELS ALL BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE 
GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ETA.  WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ETA 
SOLUTION...AND BRING FROPA THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY 
EVENING HOURS FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TSRA.  EVEN THOUGH 
FRONT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY...AFTERNOON/EVENING 
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH H5 LOW LOCATED OVER NRN WI AND MID 
LEVEL COOL POOL INFLUENCING CWA.  CURRENT TEMP FORECAST LOOKED 
REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.


SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EURO MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR THROUGH 
SUNDAY...HOLDING H5 LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT HAVE
EXTENDED TSRA CHANCES INTO SUNDAY EVENING.  WILL LEAVE MONDAY DRY
FOR NOW...BUT IF GFS IS RIGHT...THEN WE STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLD 
TSRA AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.  MODELS ALSO SUGGESTING COOLER 
AIRMASS WITH H8 TEMPS OF +10 TO +12C WILL ROTATE THROUGH CWA SUNDAY 
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 12C THROUGH MID WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH ALSO PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTAL U.S. 
...KEEPING A N TO NE SURFACE FLOW OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BASED 
ON THIS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NEXT WEEKS TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER 
MEX GUIDANCE.


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

DLF