[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/29/2003 8:53:46 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 300151
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
355 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY...WITH SOME FEW AND FAR BETWEEN SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE CWA.  THE FOG HAS LEFT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AROUND THE AREA 
THAT HAVE NOT LOWERED MUCH IN THE SUNSHINE AND MIXING OF THE 
AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

12Z MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP WITH A DECENT CONSENSUS FOR 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR LATER THIS WEEK.  
THE MAIN FEATURES APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...BUT TIMING 
AND STRENGTH OF VORT MAXES IS WAY OFF.  HAVE IN GENERAL GONE WITH 
THE AVN THIS FORECAST.

WILL BE CONTINUING ISOLATED SHRA INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.  THEY 
SHOULD  DISSIPATE BY 8 PM...BUT TIL THEN CAN PUT DOWN A FEW TENTHS 
WHERE THEY OCCUR.  WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS STILL LINGERING IN THE 
AREA...HAVE DECIDED TO ALLOW FOR A RE-CURRENCE OF THE FOG TONIGHT. 
SINCE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CWA...AND 
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...HAVE NOT 
GONE WITH AN ADVISORY BUT WORDED ZFP TEXT PRETTY HEAVILY AND GRIDS 
HAVE F+ WITH 1/2 MILE VISBY FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INTO 
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY INTERESTING.  MODELS FROM THIS MORNING 
IMPLIED A LATE AFTERNOON FROPA WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACOMPANYING IT.  
THE NEW 18Z MESO ETA THAT CAME IN IS GOT SIMILAR FRONTAL 
TIMING...BUT HAS A SQUALL LINE THAT MOVES INTO CWA IN THE MORNING. 
HAVE NOT DECIDED TO BUY INTO THIS...AND HAVE GONE WITH AFTERNOON 
WORDING.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS 
JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...AND HAVE HUNG ONTO SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST PERIODS.  WITH MAIN SURFACE FRONT TO THE 
SOUTH...TEMPS OUGHT TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL 
FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN 
COOL AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 
THE MORNING.  SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OUGHT TO BE QUIET...WITH 
RIDGING BUILDING IN.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

LE