[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/27/2003 2:17:35 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 270715
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
215 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2003


OVERALL WEATHER PICTURE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO HINGE 
ON THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES 
CAPPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. CAPPING IS WELL ESTABLISHED 
THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY TODAY...AS 
NOTED BY WIDESPREAD 14-15C TEMPERATURES AT 700MB ON THE 00Z 
ANALYSIS.  THE STRONGEST CAPPING IS ACTUALLY BELOW THIS 
LAYER...AROUND 850MB WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE 
THROUGHOUT THE AREA.  THIS SAID...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW 
PROGRESS SOUTH THIS MORNING AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE 
ARRIVING FROM UPSTREAM.  WILL USE A HEAVY NOW CAST INFLUENCE ON THE 
FIRST PERIOD TODAY.  FOR NOW...UNLESS CONVECTION BREAKS OUT BEFORE 
ISSUANCE...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE 
SOUTH...WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS A LITTLE CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. 

LATER TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.  
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS THE FRONT SOUTH INTO MISSOURI.  COOLER 
WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK AS 
NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE BRINGS IN SEASONALLY MILD AIR. BY 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS 
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND CUT OFF BY THE GFS.  THE ETA IS LESS 
AMPLIFIED...BUT ALSO DROPS A WAVE SOUTH DURING THE SAME PERIOD. 
CURRENT FORECAST CONTAINS A CHANCE OF TSRA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL RUN...AND WILL 
NO INTRODUCE ANY CHANGES. 

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.  

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

ERVIN