[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/22/2003 4:32:37 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 222112
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
411 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS STEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AT
500MB...WITH A SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH.  AT THE SURFACE...A
HIGH SITS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA...BEING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL IOWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE TWO-FOLD.
FIRST IS LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND HOW CLOSE
THEY'LL BE TO OUR RATHER MILD RECORD LOWS FOR LATE JULY.  SECOND IS
A COLD FRONT IN THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME.

THE SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT...WITH NORTH WINDS BECOMING VERY LIGHT AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES THE AREA.  MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN ONE
OR TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE RECORD MINS.  THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.  TEMPS MAY DROP A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN TONIGHT...BUT STILL BE ONE TO TWO
CATEGORIES ABOVE RECORDS.  THE RECORD LOW OF 54 AT MLI FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...I.E. THURSDAY MORNING...STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF FALLING.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT TROF/COLD FRONT...SOMETIME SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY.  THE FRONT MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A EAST-WEST ORIENTATION...
INDICATING THAT ALTHOUGH IT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE
PROGRESSIVELY THRU THE AREA...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STALL.

VERY FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA