[LeArc] HWODVN@ 7/19/2003 4:20:57 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 192106
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-201100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
406 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK 
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE 
WILL BE A SMALL RISK OF TORNADOES WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 
AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA 
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  AS THE STORMS DISSIPATE...THEY MAY MOVE 
SOUTHEAST AS FAR AS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  THESE 
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.  IF STORMS HOLD TOGETHER AS 
THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST...AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 MAY SEE  
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  LATER IN THE 
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG 
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING STORMS...AS AN UPPER 
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY MOIST 
AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR ALONG BOUNDARIES WILL LEAD TO RAPID 
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF 
INTERSTATE 80. MORE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS CENTRAL 
AND NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY 
EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LINES OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT WILL 
RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL 
ILLINOIS...AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI IN THE EVENING. 

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE 
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AS STORMS DEVELOP 
INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT TO 
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH 
AS 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND VERY 
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OR MORE IN A 
SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING SUNDAY 
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY URBAN AREAS AND COUNTIES IN FAR NORTHEAST 
MISSOURI...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE THE 
GROUND MAY BE ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT 
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

&&
MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING INTERNET WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN (ALL LOWER CASE)

$$
ERVIN