[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/18/2003 4:02:02 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 180857
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
357 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2003

LONG AWAITED CONVECTION FINALLY FIRING OVER CWFA AT MORNING PACKAGE 
ISSUANCE AND LAST MINUTE CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS/ZONES. SURFACE FRONT 
AT 08Z WAS FROM NEAR VYS EAST THROUGH AWG TO DSM. UP TO THIS 
POINT...ONLY AREAS JUST UP TO EAST EDGE OF CWA IN IL HAS BEEN ACTIVE 
BUT THIS IS RAPIDLY CHANGING WITH H5 SHORTWAVE SEEN MOVING INTO 
NORTHEAST IA ON SATELLITE AND WEAKENING CAP. TWO MAJOR AREAS OF 
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF FRONT IN SE IA AND ELEVATED 
CONVECTION ALONG H85 FRONT THAT HAS HAD NW TO SE BAND OF ACCAS ALL 
NIGHT FROM N CENTRAL IA THROUGH PUTNAM CO. SEVERE STORMS OCCURRING 
IN ILX AREA AND LOOKS LIKE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP 
NORTHWEST WITH SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS 
AHEAD OF FRONT IN SOUTHERN ZONES...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 EARLY 
THIS MORNING. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH EXCEPTION OF 
FAR NORTHEAST... WITH UP TO LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MAINLY THIS 
MORNING. 

COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH COOL NORTHEAST 
FLOW OFF GREAT LAKES AS HIGH OVER NORTHEAST MN SINKS SOUTH OVER 
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE 
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MENTION OF RECORD TO NEAR 
RECORD LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 50S. BEYOND...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS 
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES EAST. FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO 
PERIODS BEYOND WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN 
NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH CURRENT SEVERE THREAT OVER CWFA NEEDING 
WATCHING HAVE LIMITED DISCUSSION.  

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

SHEETS
$$