[LeArc] HWODVN@ 7/14/2003 6:55:33 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 141126
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-151000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE TODAY AND PUMP UP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. DEWPOINTS SHOULD CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE MID 60S
BY THIS EVENING...MAKING FOR A WARM AND RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
INTO THIS AIRMASS LATER TONIGHT AND TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...
SETTING OFF STORMS AS IT DOES. THE EXTENT OF THE SHEAR AND FORCING
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL BE OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE VARIETY TONIGHT. LATEST THINKING HAS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE KICKING OFF STORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
THEN MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS AS THEY PUSH
INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS AND DUBUQUE AFTER 6 PM. THE
SUPERCELLS MAY THEN FORM INTO A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS AS THEY
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINING AREA AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING
WARM WEDGE OF AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA THAT WILL ACT TO CAP ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE CAP IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN FROM THE NORTH THIS
EVENING ALLOWING STORM PROPAGATION INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH THE SUPERCELLS WOULD BE FROM HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF GOLFBALLS...AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS. A SECONDARY
THREAT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF A FEW TORNADOES. THE FAVORED AREA FOR
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS EVOLVE INTO A
COMPLEX AND PUSH SOUTH AND EAST...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF UP
TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM MID EVENING ON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THE BRUNT OF THE DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD PUSH FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE IOWA CITY AREA...THROUGH SOUTHEAST
IOWA AND FAR WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM 10 PM TO 1 AM.

IF THE CAP TURNS OUT TO BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THE
STORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF
A SQUALL LINE RIGHT ALONG THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL NOT RECEIVE ANY
STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS. THIS
SQUALL LINE WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS OF 60 TO 65 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...BUT SOME AREAS STILL MAY EXPERIENCE
A QUICK ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.


SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING INTERNET WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN (ALL LOWER CASE)

$$

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