[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/12/2003 2:54:05 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 120751
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
250 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2003


CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER ALL OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS ALL THE 
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. 
ALOFT...THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE WITHIN THE CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF 
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  HEIGHT RISES AT 500MB OVER 
NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHOW THAT THE UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING EAST...AND IT 
WONT BE LONG BEFORE WE ARE OUT OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. ALL IN 
ALL THINGS ARE SHAPING UP FOR A QUIET WEEKEND WEATHER WISE AS THE 
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT WEST. 

A LOOK AT ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA TODAY SHOWS THAT THE LOW 
LEVELS WILL STILL BY RATHER UNSTABLE...BUT WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD 
PREVENT ANYTHING BUT VERY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP 
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR EVEN SLIGHT 
CHANCE WORDING...SO WILL PULL TSRA OUT OF THIS AFTERNOON AND 
TONIGHTS GRIDS. HIGHS WILL BE RATHER CLOSE TO YESTERDAY...AS 850MB 
TEMPERATURES AREA SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BUT MIXING IS WEAKER.  SUNSHINE 
SHOULD BE ABUNDANT...WITH SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS ESPECIALLY NORTH 
AND EAST. 

QUITE WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.  
SUNDAY...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS GET GOING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH 
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY PRODUCED SOME 
LIGHT QPF THE LAST FEW RUNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE 
TROF MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA.  THE ETA DOES NOT SUPPORT 
THIS...SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. 

AFTER A RATHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH 
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.  BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SUPPORT A LOW 
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...MOVING EAST TO NEAR KMKC BY 
06Z.  WITH THIS POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW...THE MCS ACTIVITY OVER 
IOWA PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST SEEMS TO MAKE GOOD SENSE.  MODELS 
CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF 
THE HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK.  THIS WILL INFLUENCE HOW LONG PRECIP 
CHANCES LINGER TUESDAY.  FOR NOW...WILL SHIFT THINGS FORWARD A BIT 
AND INCREASE MONDAY NIGHTS CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LOWER TUESDAY 
EVENINGS CHANCES TO SLIGHT.  WILL LEAVE TUESDAY AT 40 PERCENT. AGREE 
WITH PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THAT HIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED AT A 
LATER TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE 
RAISING THE POPS AT THIS TIME. 

STRONG OR MODERATE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET FROM 
MID TO LATE WEEK. WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MEX 
GUIDANCE.  


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

ERVIN

$$