[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/10/2003 3:54:47 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 102044
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
343 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2003

SURFACE LOW ANALYZED BY MSAS OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI AT 20Z WITH PLENTY 
OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OVER CWFA HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN ONLY IN 
60S TO LOWER 70S. 88DS AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOWED FEW EMBEDDED 
SHOWERS...NOW MAINLY IN NW IL ZONES. AT UPPER LEVELS...MAIN TROF HAD 
SHIFTED TO JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA AT 12Z WITH RIDGE DOMINATING 
WESTERN CONUS. OVER NORTHERN PLAINS...SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO 
NORTHERN MN WITH NW FLOW INTO EASTERN IA. MAIN SHORT TERM CHALLENGE 
IS SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE 
SURGES SE TONIGHT...REINFORCING H5 LOW OVER GREAT LAKES AND KEEPS 
DEEP CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVER AREA.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING. ADDED LOW 
POPS FOR SHOWERS GOING IN NORTHERN ZONES EARLY. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL 
FLOW TO REMAIN COUPLED TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION THAT HAS 
TO BE CONSIDERED GIVEN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS. ON FRIDAY...SHORT 
TERM MODELS PAINT QPF OVER NORTHEAST HALF CWFA AND THIS LOOKS 
REASONABLE WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN MID 70S AND FORECAST LI/S 
TO -2 AND ETA BL CAPES TO NEAR 900 J/KG ADDED SCATTERED POPS FOR 
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AND FORCING LOOK TO LIMIT THUNDER 
POTENTIAL SO USED ISOLATED WORDING. ALSO...WITH MORE CLOUD COVER 
ANTICIPATED AND H85 TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN TODAY...TONED DOWN 
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW GFS MOS AND LOWER THAN GOING FORECAST...
DOWN TO 70S TO LOWER 80S.  ...SHEETS

FRIDAY NIGHT... KEPT LOW POPS FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNSET. 
SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS IN...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING AND WINDS 
DIMINISHING. GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE AND TOOK A BLEND...FAVORING 
THE COOLER END. 

SATURDAY... INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WEAK SECONDARY FRONT LOOKS 
TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. GFS AND ETA INDICATE FAIRLY 
STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. WITH 
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE LINGERING...HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST SLIGHT 
CHC POPS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL FIELDS...SO KEPT TEMPS FAIRLY 
CLOSE TO THOSE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. 

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS QUIET AS SURFACE RIDGING 
DOMINATES...RESULTING IN NICE SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL 
TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. 

EXTENDED (MON-THU)...
NEXT FRONT TO ARRIVE TUE. INTRODUCED PCPN CHCS LATE MON NIGHT IN THE 
NORTHWEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DECAYING REMNANTS OF MCS. 
HIGH BUILDS IN WED-THU SHUNTING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHCS TO
OUR SOUTH.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$